Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
I don't know where you got the idea that I claimed I knew how this case would play out.
I don't. I never said I did. No one knows.
I threw out various ideas, including what a possible plea deal might look like, but I just pulled all of that out of my ass, and in reality have nothing substantial to offer regarding the actual terms we might see.
I thought we covered this from every possible angle and sub-story regarding this whole matter. We spent over 3 freaking hours talking about this last night. It was beaten to death. If anything, we talked about it in too much detail and did too much speculating, not too little.
But fine, if you want speculation regarding the future of where this goes, here it is....
I think the Attorney General is out for blood. I think they want to make an example of someone, so the public comes away with the impression that the state will smack down anyone who dares operates an illegal online gambling website in Nevada.
With that said, I think the AG might be willing to accept a plea. The plea bargain will have to be tough enough to where it doesn't have to look like a slap on the wrist, but it doesn't have to be something ridiculous like years in prison. It just has to be harsh enough to where Bryan Micon can be used as an example of why you don't want to run illegal online gambling websites in Nevada. So something like 6 months in state prison and a surrendering of all profits he made from Seals would probably be sufficient. You know... something to where Micon walks away from it worse off than before he got involved with Seals, or at least to where that's the public's impression.
I think Micon is delusional. He sees how Chesnoff has worked miracles for others accused of gambling-related misdeeds in Nevada, and somehow feels that buying the best attorney will somehow produce a miracle. Maybe he's encouraged by Paul Phua's recent courtroom victories. But I think that, sometime between February 11th and mid-April, Micon decided that this expat thing isn't for him, and that he should invest some money into fighting this thing. I don't think he realizes how badly the deck is stacked against him on this one, and how they hold so much evidence that he would have a very poor chance of beating it in court. He is just looking at this as, "I hired a great attorney, maybe he can find a loophole for me."
I think Chesnoff & Schonfeld realize how bad it looks for Micon, but they're happy to take his money to defend him anyway. I think they have limited their advice thus far to, "Come back to Vegas and face this", and Micon isn't ready to do that yet. They're probably telling him that they can't help him much (or at all) if he's going to hide in Antigua and continue running new Seals. All of their statements are along the lines of, "We have advised Mr. Micon of his obligations", meaning that they are only at the stage right now of trying to convince him to come back. I think Micon envisioned something different -- to where the superlawyers would arrange a favorable plea deal while he sat in the comfort and relative safety of Antigua. But from what I can see, it appears they just want him to come back so the defense can proceed.
It will get interesting when Micon finally comes to terms with the fact that he will probably face actual jail time -- and that they also may extradite him if he continues to hide from it. At some point he may finally throw up his hands and just face the music. Or perhaps he won't. It's impossible to predict his actions. I learned that many years ago.
