Let em do it and it will crash and burn. Half the idiots will be up at the podium this fall trying to explain why despite their best estimations there just wasn’t a demand for -120 bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
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Let em do it and it will crash and burn. Half the idiots will be up at the podium this fall trying to explain why despite their best estimations there just wasn’t a demand for -120 bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Don’t kid yourself, my off-shores want to pahticipate in licensing (maybe delusional) so they will block me and appear righteous.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Meanwhile, the battle & bleeding at the Sportsbook could last as long as Afghanistan. Do you think Wynn Encore will suddenly learn the meaning of P&L?
The podium? The licensing fee is $5 milly. They expect to pull $80m total in fees. That buys a lot of goodwill going forward.
The very definition of a Pyrrhic Victory, Daly
Admittedly low tech approach here but I’ve had some decent luck over the years. Hard part is finding a local guy who is ok with you sending in 5-10K worth of season long bets. Name of the game here isn’t going 100%….. 60% in a bad year is just fine. These are all at or below projection based on a full 17 games played. Safe to say if any of them miss even one game I’d feel very comfortable chalking up a W.
Yards/tackles+Assists - all unders (obviously)
All unders
Mahomes 5100
Ryan 4600
Barkley 1200
Henry 1675
Zeke 1175
Sanders 1100
Jefferson 1400
Toney 475
Wagner 145
Baker 130
Davis 133
Smith 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarDon’t kid yourself, my off-shores want to pahticipate so they will block me and appear righteous.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Meanwhile, the battle & bleeding at the Sportsbook could last as long as Afghanistan. The very definition of a Pyrrhic Victory, Daly
Sorry sir I’m going to pass on the BC +21.5 vs Clemson -120. I will however give you -120 on the BC QB, who has been averaging 360 Yards PG vs Wake Forest and Louisville, for a max bet of under 350.5 Passing yards.
I forgot about unders like Mahommes 5100. Mahommes is offered as the face of load management 2021
Ok, I lied about futures in less than 15 minutes
Mahomes was 100% going to top the equivalent of 5100 last year…… until they benched his ass in the last week of the season for a “meaningless game”.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The lines I posted require the player to have a good season AND play 17 to go over. Taking the under on these is the poker equivalent of shoving vs calling when you on the short stack. When you bet the under you can win a few different ways.
Player gets hurt
A RB o-line breaks down
Coach changes philosophy from one year to the next
Player busted for not taking Covid vax
Any way will do
I just found one local out of the bunch that was still hanging Vikings +180 to win the Norris - I just maxed it
I’m not one to speak ill of pretty much any posted bets. With that said, your Zeke under is very puzzling to me. Care to explain your thinking there? 1175 over 17 games would be WELL under his career averages. In fact his career RYPG goes over 1175 at 13 games so he’d seemingly have some wiggle even if he missed a game or two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
They’ll obviously protect Dak early in the year etc. Zeke supposedly in best shape of his life. He’s vaccinated. I’m admittedly a fish on these props but that one screams over to me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22I’m not one to speak ill of pretty much any posted bets. With that said, your Zeke under is very puzzling to me. Care to explain your thinking there? 1175 over 17 games would be WELL under his career averages. In fact his career RYPG goes over 1175 at 13 games so he’d seemingly have some wiggle even if he missed a game or two.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
They’ll obviously protect Dak early in the year etc. Zeke supposedly in best shape of his life. He’s vaccinated. I’m admittedly a fish on these props but that one screams over to me.
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
Agreed, plus Pollard is a stud also. DAL gonna run Zeke hard, cause they are paying him, but that line is not what it was.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
I am debating finally trying the "all under" strat on yardage futures this year. Go under on like 40 of them.
Dallas finished with the 27th ranked o-line last year according to PFF. But they are ranked #6 going into this season. Why is that you ask? La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin played little to none last year. They are all 3 back and considered healthy. To say this line was decimated in 2020 would be an understatement. 3 fresh future hall of famers and 2 solid young guys in Connor Williams (6th best run block score among guards) and center Biadasz who had the highest run block win rate among all centers with 81%. Mike McCarthy known for O-line and so is Joe Philban.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
This thread (should be) designed to question bets. I appreciate questions.
The main set of NFL projections I work from call for him to play in 16.5 games and carry the ball 275 times for 1160 yards. this assumes he plays the 16.5 games and has ~4.35 YPC. I’d be careful about taking the earlier years and trying to extrapolate them out 5 years later. One of the reasons why the Cowboys felt ok drafting him fourth overall is they had the NFL’s best O-Line assembled to put him behind. That’s no longer the case, not even close. In addition this Cowboy D was fucking dogshit last year. They didn’t get any better this year. Teams that are down 14-0 at the end of the 1Q tend to abandon the running game.
The over reaching thing here is this could be one I lose. I’m not staking my life on this one bet. But I’m willing to wager, because there are a few ways to win and a semi flawless season to beat me.
I’d sprinkle some Zeke o1500 +500 or better if I could find it
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Dallas finished with the 27th ranked o-line last year according to PFF. But they are ranked #6 going into this season. Why is that you ask? La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin played little to none last year. They are all 3 back and considered healthy. To say this line was decimated in 2020 would be an understatement. 3 fresh future hall of famers and 2 solid young guys in Connor Williams (6th best run block score among guards) and center Biadasz who had the highest run block win rate among all centers with 81%. Mike McCarthy known for O-line and so is Joe Philban.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I’d sprinkle some Zeke o1500 +500 or better if I could find it
Zeke most rushing yards +1300
The 3M is going to be won by someone going super low. Matthew Wolff sits 5 back. He has the potential to post super low scores. If he can avoid matching bogeys with the birdies he could be a long shot. Pretty good spot to get it in at +6000 IMO.
Due to split tees on Saturday he will also be the first off. Chance to throw something crazy out in the morning wave.
i thought this was so cute and pithy when that strongly worded statement from the NFL came out...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
'jerry we're gonna have you forfeit your game against the redskins cause half your team has the 'rona'...
'billy bob, we didn't make you forfeit anything for getting a rub and tug, but cam and the boys have the C-19, so you're just gonna have to take the L here'...
let me kno how that one goes, rog...
I don’t think anyone is forfeiting. My intuition about the dollars tells me that’s unlikely. They do have 3rd string players and a practice squad. Large guys who drive the Zamboni.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisi thought this was so cute and pithy when that strongly worded statement from the NFL came out...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
'jerry we're gonna have you forfeit your game against the redskins cause half your team has the 'rona'...
'billy bob, we didn't make you forfeit anything for getting a rub and tug, but cam and the boys have the C-19, so you're just gonna have to take the L here'...
let me kno how that one goes, rog...
We need to stop working around Covid. It’s a fact of life, and not a temporary or passing condition. Maybe the NFL is an example of a business that has adapted. Billy Bob has prolly already figured this out.
What I was suggesting was the element of increased variance for us to face - especially with futures. They continue to increase. Previously, we waited til everyone was fine. Not now. You play whatever you can round up.
Anyone have any Olympics bets? China to win most medals? Fuck China but it is a reasonable bet.
Jj Watt under 7.5 sacks
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
This thread ain’t political except as on how it impacts wagering
Yesterday i was having a cocktail up in the woods at camp and put the TV on. I knew woman’s soccer already lost. Then the US woman had a crew/rowing team. They lost. They were waxing poetic about a 39 year old doctor from Boston, a “great story”.
The whole time I’m thinking there is some 23 year old at Harvard/brown/ivy who is a downing bad ass who is leading her team on the “head of the Charles”. Sure the 39 year old is a “great story” but is this the best we got?
Really feels like politics have got in the way for the US.
agreed on all accounts...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI don’t think anyone is forfeiting. My intuition about the dollars tells me that’s unlikely. They do have 3rd string players and a practice squad. Large guys who drive the Zamboni.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
We need to stop working around Covid. It’s a fact of life, and not a temporary or passing condition. Maybe the NFL is an example of a business that has adapted. Billy Bob has prolly already figured this out.
What I was suggesting was the element of increased variance for us to face - especially with futures. They continue to increase. Previously, we waited til everyone was fine. Not now. You play whatever you can round up.
however i do wonder about your first point...yup there's the third stringers, practice squad guys, guys that were trying to make it from the XFL but when would the networks say 'fuck this shit', we paid $X billions for patrick myhomes, christian mccaffery, etc, not for some guys from some DII schools...ratings plummet and they get real fucking pissed...kinda like the 'load management' shit from the NBA...
too much money is at stake...ESPNs ratings from what i understand are already in the shitter...dont think they can afford to put a shitty NFL product out there...
unrelated note...texas and oklahoma to the SEC?
i understand all the money yadda, yadda, but it just seems wrong...bama/florida, bama/lsu, florida/tennessee, florida/georgia, bama/auburn, etc...the old school SEC rivalries built upon years and years of friday night lights and suitcases of money...oklahoma/flordia? seems wrong and weird, but it's the direction we are headed i guess...
There are people who’s opinions i trust tell me an olive branch has already been extended to both OSU/Mich and ND to join and make a 20 team super conferance.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
The NCAA is dead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Nacho!
Throw a line out and the Ppl will bet it!!!
OLYMpicssss
Olympics - Gold Medal Winner
Fencing Individual Epee Men Winner
Gergely Siklósi Even 07/24/2021 (05:00 PM) (Pending)
Olympics - Gold Medal Winner
Canoeing K-1 Slalom Women Winner
Jessica Fox -180 07/24/2021 (05:00 PM) (Pending)
Olympics - Gold Medal Winner (A-M)
Women's Handball Winner
[ Norway +115 07/24/2021 (06:00 PM) (Pending)
hope you well..im still kicking! gd luck. have fun...poo
NY Yankees - BOS Red Sox 07/24/2021 (01:05 PM) (Pending)
Over 9 Runs -117 for the Game
J. Taillon(must start) N. Eovaldi(must start)
Yankees. +158. Action
A's -116. Action
You mean the SEC plus Texas, Oklahoma, ND, OSU, Michigan and one other team to make 20?Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThere are people who’s opinions i trust tell me an olive branch has already been extended to both OSU/Mich and ND to join and make a 20 team super conferance.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
The NCAA is dead.
Not going to happen. OSU and Michigan rule the Big Ten and would just be in the top half of the SEC in terms of influence and money. Can’t speak for the others. The Big Ten might try to expand to 16 but not with ND who has rejected them 3 times already. The Big Ten has the biggest TV contact if any conference. Sure this 20 team super conference would blow that out of the water, but Texas, OSU and Michigan would probably end up getting less of a cut than they do now.
Imagine the CFP with all teams coming from that one super conference and all having played each other already. How boring.
This is the direction it’s headed - that’s the entire point.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakYou mean the SEC plus Texas, Oklahoma, ND, OSU, Michigan and one other team to make 20?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Not going to happen. OSU and Michigan rule the Big Ten and would just be in the top half of the SEC in terms of influence and money. Can’t speak for the others. The Big Ten might try to expand to 16 but not with ND who has rejected them 3 times already. The Big Ten has the biggest TV contact if any conference. Sure this 20 team super conference would blow that out of the water, but Texas, OSU and Michigan would probably end up getting less of a cut than they do now.
Imagine the CFP with all teams coming from that one super conference and all having played each other already. How boring.
Get used to a new paradigm in college football. It’s going to be one conference that matters and everyone else as a side show.
That 20 team super conference will be able to negotiate a deal on the level of the NFL. 1/20th of that will dwarf the independent deals that Texas and ND currently have.
Edit: if OSU Mich and ND jump I give it 1 week for Vandy and one other current sec school to get the boot and Clemson and Miami to come in.
Edit2: I’m not saying this is a good thing. “How boring” won’t matter - a billion dollar TV deal will be all that matters.
I've told you guys I hate totals like 6.5 and 7, so I won't go that way today.
I'll go the alternate RHE route.
Pitcher's duel today with Rodon & Woodruff.
White Sox (Rodon) at Milwaukee (Woodruff) - Under 24 RHE -135
Woodruff or Burnes?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Either way both good
This would be a real close tournament if it weren’t for Lee6. The last tournament was a runaway and Hatoaka didn’t have to play Sunday. This week they’ll play and I’ll be routing for you to get this home. She did what she had to do. Nullifying the three bogeys by making birdie on 3/4 Par 5s and picking up three more strokes to keep a 6 stroke lead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I had a look at this one and was surprised going into moving day sites had Jutanugarn around +350 and Lydia I saw anywhere from +2200-+2500. Given the fact that some top players (World Number 1 &2) had struggled around par for the opening two rounds. It was almost as if the books were enticing bets against Lee6. It seemed possible she could shoot par or just over it and the pack would tighten. Didn’t happen…No surprise you were all over it.
Lydia had another clean card but didn’t make up any ground on Lee6. I may try and get some money down on her for the olympics if I can find a good number. Most places have it off right now. I just can’t imagine the original odds of Nelly +700 and J Ko +1000 hold after how they performed this week, particularly J Ko. What I like about Lydia now is she isn’t dropping shots. Her cards seem to be pretty steady. Pars and Birdies. Seems to be trending like she did after coming second at the ANA. Her popularity is going to have an effect on her odds so the journey for value begins.
We knew we were lucky for J Ko to hang on a few weeks ago but she has totally hit the skids this week. She made the cut(short field event) but now sits 4th to last. I don’t think I would bet her at +2000 for the Olympics forget about +1000.
Saturdays chalk F5 parlay that pays
Nationals -235
Giants -265
Should be close to even money
I personally believe more people lose more money betting weather as a rule. Ploppies think they are the only ones with weather data.
Having said that, this noob submits the following. Saturdays are tough. Just sharing my action and I am self aware enough to know I start feeling good and play looser & spew some back.
Pirates (Will Crowe 1-5, 6.12 ERA) v Giants (Gausman possible NL Cy Young candidate)
Crowes peripherals like xFip all support that he is a bum. He is prone to the long ball and the Giants lineup is versatile and can mix and match so well. Wind blowing out briskly
Giants team total over 2½ -121 for 1st 5 L
Giants team total over 4½ -122 for Game L
Giants -1½ -130 for Game L
Not gonna dwell on this. You got your hobbies and I got mine. Mine just pays better than yours. This isn’t a “Bellinger is out” story. He of the .160avg.
[B]Dodgers team total under 5½ -138 for Game W
Stupid Blue Jays. Spider tack Ryu today. Betting them demands disposable income. Three outcome team finds matching weather.
Blue Jays -½ +105 for 1st 5 Innings W
Blue Jays team total over 4½ -102 for Game W
A’s Bassit v Mariners (Gilbert 2.00era 0.778whip last 3)
I like the low mileage kid at home v a pretty good Bassitt
Seattle Mariners +105 for 1st 5 Innings W
I like this one a lot. Orioles Matt Harvey - they gotta push this bum out there cause it’s that kind of year. Mix in some weather and boom
Nationals team total over 5½ -120 for Game L
Bum fight. Phillies Velasquez 8.78 1.875 last 3
Trash bullpen
Braves team total over 4½ -127 for Game W
Issue at BetAnySports with account balances. Check your accounts
BOL prop juice is so bad. Lucky for them they are not subject to law enforcement.
Some day I’m gonna run some math on their futures hold. Too lazy atm.
I see Druff bought his RHE on Betanysports. Always the thrifty shopper.
BOL’s live odds service is far better or worse depending on your perspective than just a few years ago. Much tougher. They go OTB when others stay in for the gamble.
I remember cleaning their clock when position players pitched and all kinds of other early days live stuff. They were so much fun. Nostalgia. We were learning together - BOL & I
InQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I did the full game version last night for +108
Nats bullpen is a legit worry. Not sure what I was thinking at the time
+216 parlay
Baseball - 914 Boston Red Sox -171 for Game
Baseball - 910 San Francisco Giants -240 for Game
Baseball - 925 Washington Nationals -245 for 1st 5 Innings
Funny timing. I had a bunch o money on BOL and I had been waiting for BTC to stabilize a bit. I just sent in the withdrawal request and it was in my wallet inside of 5 min. I must say I really really like BOL..Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyPipes
This bet any sports good then?
Never used this one
I have been a complete shill for BOL for years. I give them action every day. They are an essential element in my dashboard.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyFunny timing. I had a bunch o money on BOL and I had been waiting for BTC to stabilize a bit. I just sent in the withdrawal request and it was in my wallet inside of 5 min. I must say I really really like BOL..Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Their customer service has treated me super. I have NEVER been upset in the least. Payouts are a dream.
They are skewing more & more retail. But there IS more retail than ever. It’s just an observation and a little disappointing if you are serious
Example. They were once known for being amongst the first with overnight lines. Not so much any more. There are more attractive options. 5Dimes will hammer out lines and derivatives overnight like men. BOL slowly drifting in Bovada Bookmaker territory
San, when you made the comment on other videos for me to make, my plan has been to cover the lines on the Jersey Apps. Particularly, how disgraceful the baseball moneylines are on Bet MGM/My Borgata. The Borgata itself mainly keeps the same lines at the ticket window, although the app is all handled by a third party who paid to use the MGM/Borgata brand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I think most of us know that MGM has been notorious for having 20 cent baseball lines for some time. Even before the apps came around, sitting at the Bellagio looking at the board and knowing that you could save tons of money in juice by betting at Caesers, but sometimes swallowing it anyway.
Well now they have really taken it a bridge too far. It’s tough to make Betonline look so dam good. But when you see these lines, they are truly sickening. Breaking to 25 cents sometimes -130/+105. Sometimes at the Borgata I can’t help myself and tell someone they can take the Jitney to Harrahs and bet 10 cent lines with William Hill and save a ton. Most of them don’t give a shit, and I guess that is why they can get away this garbage in the first place.
They literally could not be any worse if they tried.
Just wait for NFL.
I posted something about my own state above. I am literally writing my Senator pleading with them to reject legalization.
I’ll be trading DeFi overnight or building ships in a bottle come January if they do. The sun is setting on the Golden Age
I have an image of you as being PFA’s Bill “KrackMan” Krackomberger flying around the country and betting professionally. He was in that Showtime thing about Vegas Dave and all that.
Not the appearance just the street smart ways of the biz.
You don’t have to do videos unless you want to build something there. I liked the one I saw of you and it could work. I literally don’t have a single guy on YouTube I follow. It’s all pump and affiliates and newsletters.
I wish you weren’t so dedicated to golf. I respect it but I just can’t.
One issue I take is the presentation. You accumulate a portfolio every tournament. I have no sense of the total units invested and where/how. A simple running list at the end of each post would go a long way. As it is I just see names added every day and I have zero sense of how they fit into your portfolio of bets.
Just wanted to add one point to show the scumbaggery a little more from my above post. You will notice the Phillies are -125/+105 while two other games are -130/+105. This is for 2 main reasons
1. Sportsbetting is legal in Philadelphia so they need to be more competitive on Phillies games in particular.
2. There will be more knowledgeable bettors in Atlantic City from the Philadelphia area. They figure they will probably alienate too many if they stretch it from a 20 cent spread to a 25 cent spread.
It’s no accident that is the one game they decide to keep like that.