Printable View
I just wanna say there were lots of great takes in this thread per the usual. From Morikawa to Finua top 32. Some other close dogs that nearly cashed in Koepka getting plus odds vs Rahm. Great bet that lost. Even the guy who bet Dechambeau to miss the cut at like +300 was on the right end of the bet with 3-4 holes left Friday. He made it on the number. I still say great bet.
Thread delivers
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
This thread 100% delivers. It’s ALWAYS great to get different perspectives. We cover a lot of ground in here and more often than it we get alpha.
I’ve been known to deliver the occasional winner but I’ve gotten more than I’ve given.
The fact that we have “content protection” from Druff really helps too. Some threads are perfect for shitposting. This isn’t one of them except for the occasional ball breaking.
Oh yeah….. and
:entertained
So here is my hybrid college football play of the year I’ve been teasing
Unfortunately I was picked clean of value in most Vegas spots. Stopped by the Wynn this morning and saw it posted at 35-1. Went the counter to fire and it was down to 10-1. Willy hill is 16-1. The good news is there are a bunch of PPH that are hanging between 25-40 to one.
The bet is CJ Stroud, Presumptive Ohio St QB, to win the Hiesman trophy @ any price +2000 or better. I don’t hate it at +1600.
So the theory is real short and sweet. There are four teams who are going to be favorites to make the playoff every year. Bama, clemson, OU and The Ohio State. Sure there are some others in any given year like Georgia or Penn St bit more or less it’s these four unless you have a party crasher. The Ohio State has the two best WR in college football this year. If either one of them transferred they would be Wr1 on the new team. Both will be first round WR. They are going to throw the fuck out of it and be god damned good at it.
This is a bet that they go 12-0 (good shot) and make the playoffs (good shot) And this top Recruit performs up to his anticipated level.
Bet should be +800-+1000
Glgl
I mean it’s expensive but JC Majia doesn’t get to 4K’s often…..
Under 3.5 -160 seems cheap
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
:fail
Quiet in here
For me too busy reading/listening/watching about the upcoming NHL expansion draft.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don't love expansion honestly they should move a shitty franchise rather than adding another, but exciting times as a hockey fan this week.
Suns are 4-1 first quarter this series. +130 first quarter for me.
I'll be back at it with MLB soon. Just waiting for things to settle post break.
Been wagering the stock market crash and recovery
Here’s something I love but kinda busy so don’t have time to write novel
924 Chicago White Sox team total over 2½ -109 for 1st 5 W
Minny Ober allows HR and a general fade wind blowing out
Fucking Betanysports piece of shit Vietnamese software had an update last night and keeps bouncing me out after entering bet. I’m blowing my brains out for a $250 bet.
I hate them but it’s my out for 1st 5 TT and I’m having good success with this angle this year.
If you can get down god bless but if this wins I’m gonna tilt.
Also
Philadelphia Phillies -½ -105 for 1st 5 L
Nola off Covid vs Covid NYY is funny
Edit
Finally got it fixed.
Going forward past posting will be punishable by not less than two red reps.
Some helpful confirmation of some personal leans would be nice but I’m such an optimist
Dancing with myself
1-1
Retiring from the sides business.
Going into 1st 5 TT full time. It’s working. You only have to do half the work. I care not what the other team does. Respect the undiluted purity
It’s a niche biz and a little less sharp imo. Most here prolly don’t have access. True?
The book only risks $250 so there is that too. Need to call Pablo.
Suns 5/18 from the field. Missed so many shots.
Also f the refs. Clearly they don’t want to fly back to Phoenix.
Not to beat the dead horse raised last week but we have had a hell of a Golf run in here over the past few months. Let’s try and keep it going.
I don’t feel like getting overly invested in LPGA week in week out but K Norda at +900 is going to be in play most Sundays. It’s a one unit spend.
PGA is in a odd post Open week. At the top of the card, and yes I should have my head examined, Finau at +1500 is the only thing I fancy. I plan to put a single unit on him “just in case” as I shop for value down the card. I don’t think DJ or Oost will pull it together which makes Finau the best of the rest and let’s face it he does have to put it together one of these weeks for win 2. Both Ghim and More are the two value players in the 40-50 to 1 area that are the tee to green masters to get it done. They are the two I’ll be rolling with
Very last second but I don’t want to past post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Brad Keller seems to be rounding into form. Royals +160 is a good dog line. I also expect some Brewers players were out partying with the Bucks championship last night.
Umpiring is so bad…….Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Very last second but I don’t want to past post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Brad Keller seems to be rounding into form. Royals +160 is a good dog line. I also expect some Brewers players were out partying with the Bucks championship last night.
Royals leading 2-0. Milwaukee has a runner on. Wong pushes a bunt down the 3rd base line. Rolling really slow. It pretty clearly goes foul. 3B waiting on it then picks it up. Called fair by home plate umpire and not reviewable?!?!? 3 runs score……
Detroit (Manning) vs. Texas (Lyles) - Under 9.5 -113
:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Very last second but I don’t want to past post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Brad Keller seems to be rounding into form. Royals +160 is a good dog line. I also expect some Brewers players were out partying with the Bucks championship last night.
One of these weeks, I couldn’t get to the “state-line” and I only post picks when I have bet them myself as well. I am a little tilted to see Lydia Ko shoot a 68 as I was tempted to get some money down on her at a very inflated +3000 on Bet MGM. Not going to take her now, so as much as I like her, don’t want to see her raise the trophy.
This week may be totally fucked for me in all honestly, I think I’m going to layoff. Other than Lydia, I don’t think I would of had a good opening round on the golfers I most likely would of had in mind. Get back to it in a few days.
Mariners +130
Flexen is a Doosan Bear legend in KBO
InQuote:
Originally Posted by NickyPipes
Nicky, YOU’RE not flexing - it’s Flexen. Oakland matches up well against him and beat him up last time they met. The Mariners secret is out so let’s put the sharp stuff down.
Giants Desclafani similarly has been pummeled by the Dodgers despite his glam #’s.
Parlay +160 W
Baseball - 908 Los Angeles Dodgers -190 for 1st 5 Innings
Baseball - 917 Oakland Athletics -142 for 1st 5 Innings
The Las Vegas Athletics have a sketch offense… so there is that
Your Rays are killing me. Yeah, I haven’t really learned.
Top of 9th Cleveland’s Closer Karinchak. Good night…. Tampa is the BEST team from the 7th inning on… I got life
Never doubted the Rays Pipes
They sign Nelson Cruz while everyone else sleeps. Few more pieces
$$
Brother please warn me in advance next time I am about to put in a losing play!
Brother I have never doubted the Rays, it was an exciting game. Rays 9-0-1 last 10 home series keep your eye on that usually big series price fav tho so gotta lay it to earn it
Ah, Nelson Cruz, the guy with a .294 average and 19 HR on July 22, at the tender age of 41.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
No steroids there at all, I'm sure.
St. Louis (Leblanc) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 9.5 -110
A crying hater! He gets tested Danny boy don’t be sadQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffAh, Nelson Cruz, the guy with a .294 average and 19 HR on July 22, at the tender age of 41.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
No steroids there at all, I'm sure.
Curious to know what the angle is here? LeBlanc improving recently? Is that it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LeBlanc was great when he played Joey in Friends but he throws an 85mph fastball. He is a sea of red in most categories. Yeah, Reds are weaker against lefties but LeBlanc is a lefty in name only. He will be pitching to someone in the home run derby next year.
I love the Reds offense generally.
Both these teams have absolute dumpster fires for bullpens. I see the smoke outside my window. I expect LeBlanc will not go 5 unless the lack of options force him to take a beating for the team.
Kinda my favorite pick today.
Cincinnati Reds -½ -125 for 1st 5 Innings W
Meh
Los Angeles Angels -½ +100 for 1st 5 Innings W
Intriguing
Tigers are kind of a stealth story
971 Detroit Tigers team total over 4½ -135 L
Some plus $ fun at Rockies OTR & Chi Chi Gonzo’s expense
B list Dodgers lineup, I know. Proving I can swing both ways
Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 3½ +125 for 1st 5 W
Ploppy pick
Philadelphia Phillies -½ -108 for 1st 5 Innings W
“Druff Memorial Suicide Style Under Bet”
Pizza money 2 toppings
New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox under 8½ -103 W
Boston thanks you for Kike, Druff. Enjoy Price tonight
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarCurious to know what the angle is here? LeBlanc improving recently? Is that it?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LeBlanc was great when he played Joey in Friends but he throws an 85mph fastball. He is a sea of red in most categories. Yeah, Reds are weaker against lefties but LeBlanc is a lefty in name only. He will be pitching to someone in the home run derby next year.
I love the Reds offense generally.
Both these teams have absolute dumpster fires for bullpens. I see the smoke outside my window. I expect LeBlanc will not go 5 unless the lack of options force him to take a beating for the team.
Kinda my favorite pick today.
Cincinnati Reds -½ -125 for 1st 5 Innings
Meh
Los Angeles Angels -½ +100 for 1st 5 Innings
Intriguing
Tigers are kind of a stealth story
971 Detroit Tigers team total over 4½ -135
Some plus $ fun at Rockies OTR & Chi Chi Gonzo’s expense
B list Dodgers lineup, I know. Proving I can swing both ways
Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 3½ +125 for 1st 5
Ploppy pick
Philadelphia Phillies -½ -108 for 1st 5 Innings
“Druff Memorial Suicide Style Under Bet”
Pizza money 2 toppings
New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox under 8½ -103
Boston thanks you for Kike, Druff. Enjoy Price tonight
E Rod + Cole = Under RHE
In under 26Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
ERod injuries (back?)Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIn under 26Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Change up guy recalled from minor leagues will prolly do bulk relief. Damn
On principle alone I put 1 unit on Nacho Elvira to win the Euro tour
Well it’s not exactly the way we drew it up, but it pays the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarERod injuries (back?)Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Change up guy recalled from minor leagues will prolly do bulk relief. Damn
WinnerQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I never think about RHE…. Thanks
:entertained
I should know better but objectively it’s down to Lee6 vs Jutanugarn. You are catching three strokes at even money.
I from what LPGA I’ve watched Lee6 is/was a major winner waiting to happen.
Give me Lee6 +100 because why the fuck not
6-1 including the Daly RHE
of course, sizzle’s Royals gotta leave a stain. bum fight
Every single Packers related bet has been pulled off the board. There is fairly rampant speculation that A Rogers May retire.
Willy Brett Favre object to Rogers stealing from his playbook?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWilly Brett Favre object to Rogers stealing from his playbook?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don’t know but I wish I had some Vikings to win the NFC North right now
So new NFL to consider
1) No games will be rescheduled b/c your Offensive Line all got the “Ro Ro”
2) due to the expanded schedule the NFL will now join the modern load management program which made the NBA so much damn fun.
Zero futures for me.
Mass is flirting with legalized wagering by the end of the year so I may have to cash out and quit.
Here’s some legalized stupidity wagering for ya. One version being debated will tax
“in person” bets placed @ 12%
“online” bets placed @ 15%
Nobody cares about the economics. That’s not being debated.
So mix in the new bigger NFL data fees, maybe some profit margin and tax on winnings …scratch tickets have better EV
Druff’s mythical Light regulation.