2 out rally Dodgers!! Lets goo
Not sure how guys like Druff and me bet 80% under. So much more fun to sweat over.
Printable View
2 out rally Dodgers!! Lets goo
Not sure how guys like Druff and me bet 80% under. So much more fun to sweat over.
Nothing I like in MLB today. Looked earlier, and looked again now. Still nothing.
One more in NBA, though:
Sacramento vs. Utah - Under 221.5
How about Rox SF over 7 +105
This isn’t the normal Daly said it must be sharp on some angle play - this is straight gamble
Braves = PFA special tonight, think 3 of us on themQuote:
Originally Posted by BlunderMaker
Cubs are a trash team.
Ugh. Lost the Chicago over by 2.5. Had 207 at a minute left, stayed 207.
Whoops.
You know your under pick wasn't good when one team scored 154 points in regulation. But yeah, Utah did that.
I did win the Phoenix under and the Spurs over, so I went 2-2.
Blah.
Thank you for the kind words nicky, d1sp, sizzle and those I’ve forgotten. Thank the recent Dodgers. Honestly, I was at the point where I was embarrassed about my posting.
I’ll respond.
Prior to signing up at PFA I never made a sports bet except rarely & casually with friends. I lost interest in poker and it was obvious sports wagering was the next thing. I learned a lot here. PFA was different years ago.
I played poker once upon a time and wagered stonks but sports wagering as puzzle to solve never occurred to me.
Later, I posted here for community & dialog. In real life I never discuss gambling. It’s a losing game for most. I don’t want to be a bad role model. I do not want to be talked about that way.
During the pandemic stocks came up. I did talk about it with my kids and extended family. It was impossible not to respond to the subject. I know my kids were playing. They smashed some shit huge early on. It concerned me. It’s not that easy. It’s their life but I don’t want to be a catalyst to the pain that is kind of inevitable. Everyone will make mistakes. I have.
Sports wagering has the same bad potential.
I posted in this thread for the community. The dialog. I made an effort to engage with, congratulate and green rep other posters. I made an effort to contribute more than picks. I did it selfishly cause I valued the community.
My fondest memories are railing games with Krypt, badguy, simp and all the rest. Simpdog is my mysteriously talented boy but badguy delivered the hits, funny as hell. badguy made me think too. I got some ideas from him.
I began to noticed my avatar was alone with maybe Druff’s. No comments. No interaction. Boring. Then there was all the other shit at PFA and I just dialed out.
I recently reviewed Druff’s action. He went on a spectacular heater. Crickets. Not a word or green rep from Daly, for instance.
Jeffdime looks like a good community member. Encourages people.
I still talk to my peeps but I’m not gonna post here as some kind of vanity exercise. Maybe my posting was messy, idk.
I’m not mad or vengeful. I have the best of memories of this thread. I’m not kidding. My god, 4am live betting the Aussie Open years ago with GBCP, badguy & salty_aus. Hockey 1st Period heart attacks. So sick. So profitable.
I see some evidence of dialog or the crew then I’m up for the fun.
Here are some plays for tonight.
MLB
Texas (Gibson) -102 vs. Boston (M. Perez)
Colorado (Senzatela) +123 at Arizona (Weaver)
NBA
Toronto at Denver - Under 218 (VanVallet/Trent/Boucher/Murray/Barton out, Porter probable)
San - good to see you.
I like to see all the plays made in here. To be honest I don’t follow NBA at all and it’s rare that I touch MLB. It wouldn’t be appropriate for me to tell Todd or anyone else how good/bad they are doing. Todd could lose 10 in a row on a +EV angle and all I’d be able to do is give him the wrong advice which would be to stop. Even worse if he went 10 in a row wins and I told him great job you should bet more when he’s just being a luck Box. I don’t want to put my name behind anything that I don’t understand.
I’m staying in my lane which until college football comes back will probably just be golf and other random +EV prop shit.
Doesn’t help that I’ve been working 12-15 hour days the past month.
I respect all he grinders and degens in here. I do miss your posting in here.
I don't care if I get accolades out here for my good runs. As Daly said, I know he's not a straight-bet MLB/NBA guy. I wouldn't expect him to to praise or criticize what may or may not be variance. Look at my post-All-Star NBA picks this season. A horrendous 2-11 run where I'm not even close on most of those 11 losses, followed by one of my best 1-month runs in any sport I've bet. Some of it came from a tweak I made to my strategy, and a lot of it was luck -- first bad, then good.
Anyway, for those wondering, my sportsbetting is a combination of a hobby and an experiment. I enjoy it, and it satisfies a degenerate side of me which most of us have. At the same time, it gives me the opportunity to challenge myself to beat something which almost everyone loses at long term. I always hear, "You can't be spread/totals betting, lines are too solid." And that may very well be true. But I've been working to find a way to do it. So far this year, I'm up in both sports.
It hasn't helped that both games have changed so much in recent years. It's a constant adjustment process. On the bright side, I have far more information at my fingertips than, say, if I attempted this 20 years ago.
Anyone who would like to ride along with me is welcome. That's why I post the picks here. I'm not guaranteeing winners, and I may or may not be +EV, but I have a real (evolving) method to my madness. I'm not just firing on feel. I like to put the bets out here both to share with anyone who wants to tail, and for some accountability, so I feel the pressure to do better when I'm losing.
I do bet on every single game I post. Not meaningless money, not huge money. Enough to feel good when I win and sting a little when I lose, but not enough to make a difference in my life either way.
We shall see.
I do hope Sanlmar will return here. I enjoyed seeing his live bets, first quarter bets, first 5 innings bets, etc. He had some very smart angles to things -- ones I sometimes wish I had thought of, but usually it was too late by the time I'd see them.
He probably needs to stop obsessing with auto-fading Kershaw, but everyone has their leaks.
I have always respected his contributions here (and elsewhere on PFA), and hope we see more of him again. I am in the process of handling various "issues", as you guys have seen, but everything will be back to normal soon enough.
BTW, if anyone is wondering, badguy23 did leave for a reason. It's independent of all this recent forum drama, and has nothing to do with me, but it's not my story to tell.
:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Lost the Toronto under. To be honest, it was a marginal pick. I don't like to rate my picks with 1-star/2-star/3-star BS because I feel that's stupid, but this honestly was one I was on the verge of not making. But I did, and I lost. Kinda gone a little cold in NBA lately after that torrid streak.
MLB I've been pretty good the whole way in this first month, but looks like I'm headed for 1-1 today after the Rockies slowly chunked off an early 3-0 lead, and now are losing 5-3 late. Their bats died, and Arizona started chipping away. I knew it wasn't looking good, and sure enough, now they're in trouble. Texas did win 4-1 earlier, so I got that.
Nice job Daly. I only did 3 Draft props cause I had less than any idea. Folks smashed. You gotta lay the juice and that’s ok but I would like to have just a bit of a clue personally before I do. The guys I follow, 2 went undefeated too. Maybe I’ll do some work next time. Prolly not.
I hate weather plays as a rule but this is kinda funny and too irresistible. Otherwise it’s a really chalky day. Don’t get me wrong, I like chalk.
Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds over 9 -114 for Game
Arrieta & Miley are 2 fly ball pitchers.
Almost forgot.
Other than the obvious Dodger lulz .... it’s a Dodger bullpen day and they are gonna leave the Brewers guessing til the last minute. Yet the MLB partners with sportsbooks. Bullpen day with the Dodgers bullpen is an interesting concept to behold.
Dodgers just aren’t hitting. Don’t be deceived by the 8-0 win vs Reds. It was 4-0 when the position player took the mound. Me, Padre & the boys were the beneficiaries of a Christmas miracle over. Just don’t believe the accountants. Just ask me next time.
My book must be over run with liberals cause they are afraid to offer me any props on the Braves vs Florida Blue Jays game. That little bandbox with Jays starting to hit. Gonna hope I can snatch a bargain total live after a scoreless first inning or something. I’m an optimist.
Working on some picks now. Should have some posted a little bit later.
While Druff is looking at the Dodgers @ a +105 dog.....
Turn your head to the left and cough, Druff.
This is the first time the Dodgers have been a dog for over 105 games I would guess. Always the favorite.
Some kid named Uceta who never pitched above AA. I caught Brewers at -105 1st 5 just before it exploded to Brew crew -138.
I really should hit the 1st 5 over 4. That’s some sad shit lineup though. Talk to me. Sigh. I have to.
Sprinkle Brew crew team total over 3.5 for game.
Yeah that's not a good lineup, especially with Muncy afraid to swing the bat at strikes right now.
No Mookie, Bellinger out for most of the month, McKinstry derailed by injury...
Dodgers look powerful when they're at full strength, but when not, the lineup can look thin. If Pollock can get going, that would help some.
McKinstry was a good utility guy for which teams did not yet have a book. His success has been fun to watch though. His mom must be proud.
Exercise some caution.
Dustin May is the real starter (after ulner collateral ligament gets a taste of the Show) . Pure speculation. Wild thing.
On a related note.... I’m on F.U. Darvish.
May has quietly put together a strong start to his career (2.89/1.062, and a 4:1 K/BB ratio), and of course he has some really good stuff and is just 23.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Starting pitching is one area where the Dodgers have a lot of riches, especially if Kershaw keeps pitching well. Even if they get some injuries, they have Tony Gonsolin as another very capable starter, once he recovers from his own injury. They could also use Wells if really necessary, though that would make me nervous.
For all the talk of Bauer doctoring balls, he has continued pitching very well after that "inspection", so it looks like that potentially disasterous signing is working out thus far. Many experts were predicting Buehler would collapse, but he's only had one bad start thus far, and it wasn't even all that terrible.
The bullpen is still a problem, and they're oddly trusting this high budget team to questionable young pitchers like Victor Gonzalez and Brusdal Graterol, as well as has-beens like Jimmy Nelson, David Wells, and Kenly Jansen.
If they want to repeat in '21, they need to have the offense firing on all cylinders -- meaning the opposite of what we've seen for the past almost 2 weeks.
I’ve not watched much baseball this year. So my takes are pretty Royals based.
I’m not sure why Singer vs Twins is getting +126? Coming off a rest day for KC and Singer has been solid so far. 15-8 team vs 8-15 team. Pineda decent so far too but not enough to make Minnesota a favorite imo
Pineda has pitched very well this year. Even his last mediocre start wasn't that mediocre, as he was victimized by 2 HR, but otherwise pitched well. He has a 22-4 K/BB ratio, and has looked very sharp in general. He's been getting a ton of called strikes, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I realize Singer has looked very good in his past two starts after two not-so-good ones to begin the season, but if I had to go with who would pitch better today, I'd say Pineda. Twins are at home, too. So I think the line looks pretty accurate to me.
Got a few MLB for you today:
Pittsburgh (Brubaker) -115 vs. St. Louis (Gant)
Cincinnati (Miley) -126 vs. Cubs (Arrieta)
Miami (P. Lopez) -126 at Washington (Lester)
Yes, Jon Lester is pitching today. Obvious fade. Also Pablo Lopez is legit good.
Baseball has decided upon reflection that they don’t care. Only Bauer did. What do you suppose Bauer was threatened with? Suspension for 25 games and loss of salary? I suppose even Bauer has his price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I hate these ploppy big favorite spreads, but I'll make an exception today.
NBA:
Memphis -12.5 vs. Orlando (Cannady/Okeke/Carter-Williams/Jackson out, Allen doubtful)
Sacramento at Lakers - Over 224.5
Washington at Cleveland - Over 230.5
I know it's the Marlins... but I didn't expect Jon Lester to go 5 shutout innings. Fortunately Lopez has recovered from a bumpy first and it's still 0-0.
Reds came back from down 2-0 and are now cruising 6-2.
But the Pirates gave up 3 to start, and have blown various scoring chances, and trail 3-1. So I think I have to count on the Marlins to doi to end up in the black in MLB.
And WTF with Memphis being DOWN in the 1st? If I lost this one outright, it will be embarrassing. Lol ploppies.
Twins still have better odds to win the division than the Royals right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
The NFL equivalent to the current records would be, being surprised a 1-2 team is favored over a 2-1 team.
Also, when taking "luck" out, royals have played as a 12-11 team, twins as an 11-12 team thus far.
....of course the way this season has gone so far, I'm sure your team wins today.
Lol - hit the holy TrinityQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarNice job Daly. I only did 3 Draft props cause I had less than any idea. Folks smashed. You gotta lay the juice and that’s ok but I would like to have just a bit of a clue personally before I do. The guys I follow, 2 went undefeated too. Maybe I’ll do some work next time. Prolly not.
I hate weather plays as a rule but this is kinda funny and too irresistible. Otherwise it’s a really chalky day. Don’t get me wrong, I like chalk.
Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds over 9 -114 for Game
Arrieta & Miley are 2 fly ball pitchers.
Almost forgot.
Other than the obvious Dodger lulz .... it’s a Dodger bullpen day and they are gonna leave the Brewers guessing til the last minute. Yet the MLB partners with sportsbooks. Bullpen day with the Dodgers bullpen is an interesting concept to behold.
Dodgers just aren’t hitting. Don’t be deceived by the 8-0 win vs Reds. It was 4-0 when the position player took the mound. Me, Padre & the boys were the beneficiaries of a Christmas miracle over. Just don’t believe the accountants. Just ask me next time.
My book must be over run with liberals cause they are afraid to offer me any props on the Braves vs Florida Blue Jays game. That little bandbox with Jays starting to hit. Gonna hope I can snatch a bargain total live after a scoreless first inning or something. I’m an optimist.
First inning run -105
Over 27.5 +110
Over 9
Great call san
I was straight up taunting you, Daly, with the weather crack.
Speaking of wind I was blown away to see you did a 1st inning prop.
Careful, it’s a gateway drug.
Sweet
Stupid Brewers base running in the Dodgers game
Shoutout to bet0nline.heygee for only allowing $100 limits on second round bets.
Would have lost my house on Trask going in second round and being drafted before Mills or Mond.
Euro Tour - D Burmeister live +1400 Course sets up well for him. I like he went low day 1 and underperformed Day 2. I would expect a good round here and to be in contention Sunday, as long as the leader comes back a bit. Worth a few bucks.
Woke up and he was cruising in solo 2nd. Since then he has had a lip out, two burnt edges and his first bogey of the day. Showing frustration. He needs to get his shit back in gear for the last 6 holes. Should of stayed asleep.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
And then Eagle!Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeWoke up and he was cruising in solo 2nd. Since then he has had a lip out, two burnt edges and his first bogey of the day. Showing frustration. He needs to get his shit back in gear for the last 6 holes. Should of stayed asleep.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
And then bogey :(
He is where we need him to be
I’m curious about your story JeffDime. The only thing I see you post about is golf. Normally, this would be grounds for a conservatorship like Britney. The human mind is not strong enough.
I know there is more that would be interesting to us nonprofessionals.
Bruins -1.5 -130 ....lol Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is that a mouthful or what
Vegas in reg -112
Boston/Carolina/Toronto parlay +126
Back 9 looked like the side of a sarcophagus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Sanimar,
First off, it is great to see both you and Simpdog back in the thread. I remember when I first posted in this thread how welcoming you were and always appreciated that. Nothing against other veteran posters in the other threads, but let’s just say that was not normal operating procedure for most veteran posters to noobs.
Right away I could tell you were a genuine person. So I really do hope you are back to stay. I appreciate the kind words in your initial return post. I also wanted to say that I have reached out to Druff many weeks ago to compliment him on how he has navigated the NBA this year. I told him I would fire all his NBA picks blind without a second thought and truly believe he has proven over the season to be +EV. Compressed schedule, late scratches, etc and he has navigated through all that stuff. Very impressive.
Daly clearly is a beast and also a man of his word. His picks I would bet blind without a doubt. For a thread on an open forum, that is really saying something.
I have had a lot of close calls and gut punches lately tbh. The bankroll has for sure taken a hit. So I have been a bit discriminating when posting picks as of late. If I see something I am positive is +EV at its current number (like Burmester yesterday), then I will post it.
As for my story, it’s been a bit of a chaotic ride the last few years. I will send you a PM in the next few days as some stuff is NMFL (Not meant for Lurkers). Again, great to see you back. Great to see simpdog back. Let’s make some fucking money!
I am capable of being nice sometimes? You came in hot JeffDime as I recall. Can’t quite remember but I was impressed.
Here’s something fun
Parlay +409
Hockey - 13 Ottawa Senators +139 for Game
Baseball - 960 Milwaukee Brewers +113 for Game
Dodgers May fade. Brewers Woodruff great
Brewers 1st 5 +100 is more prudent but Brewers bullpen, hmmm ... I’ll go heads up with Dodgers today for a nice prize. Eventually, the Dodgers will win a game. Hopefully tomorrow
We refer to the “Pesky Senators” They always play hard.
What is this shit Simp?
AddingQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Avs over 6
Oilers -130
Islanders in reg +107
Anyone have any good leads on the Derby?
Seriously sounds like a name a comedian would come up with to make fun of Finnish people. I had to google to confirm he was real.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog