I'm not going to reveal how I know, but let's just say that I acquired info that Karpeles has read this thread before.
Hi Mark!
Printable View
I'm not going to reveal how I know, but let's just say that I acquired info that Karpeles has read this thread before.
Hi Mark!
For anyone cares, here is info on the "hard fork", including what that term means: https://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoi...rd-fork-split/
Tracing IPs again and deducing by location (Japan)...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Any IP's from Russia ;)
AT any rate the coming weeks will be eventful or non eventful or just neutral, that is my prediction.
Based on the Gringo thread can an administrator please ban Dan druff?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
BTC yes.. But ETH has been blowing up dude its at 40.10 (up almost 5% in the last hour) as we speak.. up nearly 100% in the past week (17.55) and exploded up 27.23 the past month.. Looks to me people are dumping BTC in favor of ETH temporarily until the fork situation is resolved..
I am surprised to see this thought from you.Quote:
Originally Posted by ftpjesusQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
BTC yes.. But ETH has been blowing up dude its at 40.10 (up almost 5% in the last hour) as we speak.. up nearly 100% in the past week (17.55) and exploded up 27.23 the past month.. Looks to me people are dumping BTC in favor of ETH temporarily until the fork situation is resolved..
ETH, Dash and the rest of the small cap players caught attention during BTC's run up ahead of the SEC decision. This was just some late stage small cap momo. It's no proxy on fundamentals. It's late stage momo
This kid has good feel imo.
Personally, I would tweak his take by saying what you key on whilst gaming market tops is selectivity by market capitalization size. Historically , the first group to roll over is the small caps. You watch for the junk rolling over first as a sign to get ready for a big payday on the bigger players.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Just like betting sports or poker, you don't win 'em all in the markets. You make calculated guesses. I got my theory about what virtual currency is (beanies) and it's fun to test it.
I guessed SEC would not approve. But I thought a good gamble would be to stay in. The risk/reward was ++EV. You got exposure to an approval which would launch price - while at the same time the BTC price might not fall if SEC disapproved.
- this proved true in the week after decision
I guessed it needed to retest the capitulation to $975. Bink
I guessed three red candles on the daily and a retest to $1100 resistance (and fail). Pretty much happened.
Now we need the loose small cap crap to rollover and the BTC plunge can commence.
Oh yeah. $1401 lol
Of course Karpeles read the thread. It's virtually (crypto pun) the only sane, non fanboy stuff on the web
Don't forget Sonatine salted the thread with the assertion Karpeles might be Dread Pirate Roberts in a self serving & successful ploy to bait me, Karpeles and the authorities.
Druff is such a fan of regulation and authority that he agreed not to reveal his source. I did appeciate his cryptic post nevertheless.
You can sneak diss all you want, but it's hitting 1401, and when it does sell sell sell. YOU'RE WELCOMED!
Damn more than 4 times higher in two months. I should have got in on this...Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
More (non-technical) forking discussion, for those interested: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...oins-fork-road
I agree with this.
A fork will be a fucking mess. Two different bitcoins will be created (the existing BTC and the new BTU), which will confuse the fuck out of most casual users, who are already confused by bitcoin in the first place.
I also don't think there's enough interest in bitcoin to prop up two versions of it. One will crash and burn pretty quickly.
Anyone holding bitcoin will get fucked value-wise.
Doug Polk said a lot of his net worth is in bitcoin. Same for some other poker players. That seems like the equivalent to having a lot of your net worth on an unregulated poker site like UB or FTP. What could go wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I hope for Polk's sake this isn't true.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assDoug Polk said a lot of his net worth is in bitcoin. Same for some other poker players. That seems like the equivalent to having a lot of your net worth on an unregulated poker site like UB or FTP. What could go wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Aside from the obvious instability, the big problem here is that BTC has a greater downside at the moment than upside.
Simply put, right now a crash to 345 (about 1/3 the current value) is far more likely than a run up to 3100 (about 3 times the current value).
I realize that's an oversimplification, but the higher you buy into BTC, the more difficult it becomes to multiply your money, so the upside starts to disappear.
Sure, on the other side of the coin, a loss of 300 points from 1000 isn't nearly as devastating as loss of 300 points from 400, but at the same time, that 300 point loss is much more likely to occur from 1000 than from 400.
Anyway, there are too many dark clouds over bitcoin right now -- perhaps the most since the failure of MtGox.
The fork is looking increasingly likely, China is demanding know-your-customer for exchanges, and the users are getting fed up with the transaction times and fees.
Right now there's still enough believers to scratch it back up to 1200-ish following a crash, but soon enough it's likely to tank hard, and if that fork happens, we'll be in unchartered territory.
Srsly, if you're reading this, you should advise your friend/employer Polk to get his money out of BTC now, and only leave enough for what he needs as a backup bankroll for his online poker play.
This is the exact thought process many use on the stock market.
Oh Google doubled in the last year. It's going to be way easier for it to crash than to double again.
Same for bitcoin when it was 50 then 100 then 200 then 400 then 800.
We don't know where bitcoin is going. If you haven't grasped that concept in the thread yet please don't advise people what to do with their investments.
Diversify yes. But cash it all out now?
:lol
FFS, Druff! This is true for *any* asset! A drop to 1/3rd value is a loss of 2/3rds of value, while an increase to 3x value is an increase of 200%. How are the scales of those changes comparable???Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI hope for Polk's sake this isn't true.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Aside from the obvious instability, the big problem here is that BTC has a greater downside at the moment than upside.
Simply put, right now a crash to 345 (about 1/3 the current value) is far more likely than a run up to 3100 (about 3 times the current value).
I realize that's an oversimplification, but the higher you buy into BTC, the more difficult it becomes to multiply your money, so the upside starts to disappear.
Sure, on the other side of the coin, a loss of 300 points from 1000 isn't nearly as devastating as loss of 300 points from 400, but at the same time, that 300 point loss is much more likely to occur from 1000 than from 400.
Anyway, there are too many dark clouds over bitcoin right now -- perhaps the most since the failure of MtGox.
The fork is looking increasingly likely, China is demanding know-your-customer for exchanges, and the users are getting fed up with the transaction times and fees.
Right now there's still enough believers to scratch it back up to 1200-ish following a crash, but soon enough it's likely to tank hard, and if that fork happens, we'll be in unchartered territory.
Srsly, if you're reading this, you should advise your friend/employer Polk to get his money out of BTC now, and only leave enough for what he needs as a backup bankroll for his online poker play.
:doublefacepalm
I don't understand why a clearly +EV player like Doug Polk would hold is winnings in a forum of currency whose value gain/loss is random at best.
Unless you want to give Polk credit as a bitcoin market genius, he's a fool to be risking his money in such a way.
It's just not a good way to store net worth -- even a decent portion of your net worth.
I only am holding BTC at this point for gambling purposes.
Really depends on how and when he invested.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hypothetically let's guess someone made 3.5 million from poker after taxes up until 2-3 years ago. Then they won 1 million when bitcoins were 20% or less as what they are now. They would now have like 5 million in bitcoin which doesn't mean all of their liquid cash is tied into bitcoin and would make their net worth significant in bitcoin.
I know a lot of people who are just hoarding a shitload of bitcoin hoping there is a run to the moon and they get filthy rich like this
If you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
It really depends on how much you earn. The more you make, typically the more you pay in % termsQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogIf you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
Your second statement may be true in some form depending on exact laws. I know some people who report based on what they cash out and not what they win and keep online.
So if one wins and converts their online poker chips to Bitcoin should they pay taxes on the bitcoin? Or pay taxes when they convert the bitcoin to USD at some point?
This trick would only work if Doug never planned to turn the BTC into cash, or if he felt he was just on a huge heater, and unlikely to win all that much in years going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogIf you report your taxes and are a professional gambler, what % goes to Uncle Sam?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My guess is most Americans playing with bitcoins are not reporting their full wins/losses.
Otherwise, deferring such taxes is just transferring the problem to later.
Also, by US tax law, if you make money on BTC appreciating, you owe taxes on that, too.
I think Polk is just withdrawing his online poker winnings into bitcoin, and then deciding to just hold them, likely because he believes bitcoin will appreciate and make him even more money. The past two years' history of bitcoin is probably especially making him feel that way.
I'm just saying that I wouldn't be trusting a large portion of my life savings into something so fragile as bitcoin, especially because the upside is now diminished, especially with the problems we are seeing on the horizon.
I say the upside is diminished because, even absent of bitcoin's latest problems, there is going to be a ceiling. Bitcoin is never going to rise to $50k each, whereas someone who bought at $100 still had a realistic shot at seeing it appreciate to $5000, given the quick rise they saw from $5 to $100. Someone buying in at $100 had a far higher chance of seeing their money multiply on a large scale than someone buying in at $1000.
When it was $2 people said this about $100, when it was $100 people said this about $1k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThis trick would only work if Doug never planned to turn the BTC into cash, or if he felt he was just on a huge heater, and unlikely to win all that much in years going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Otherwise, deferring such taxes is just transferring the problem to later.
Also, by US tax law, if you make money on BTC appreciating, you owe taxes on that, too.
I think Polk is just withdrawing his online poker winnings into bitcoin, and then deciding to just hold them, likely because he believes bitcoin will appreciate and make him even more money. The past two years' history of bitcoin is probably especially making him feel that way.
I'm just saying that I wouldn't be trusting a large portion of my life savings into something so fragile as bitcoin, especially because the upside is now diminished, especially with the problems we are seeing on the horizon.
I say the upside is diminished because, even absent of bitcoin's latest problems, there is going to be a ceiling. Bitcoin is never going to rise to $50k each, whereas someone who bought at $100 still had a realistic shot at seeing it appreciate to $5000, given the quick rise they saw from $5 to $100. Someone buying in at $100 had a far higher chance of seeing their money multiply on a large scale than someone buying in at $1000.
Predicting a ceiling on something like this is just guessing IMO
Yes, it's guessing, but it's not a stretch when something rockets from $5 to $100, there might be a pretty high ceiling and it might reach $5000.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacWhen it was $2 people said this about $100, when it was $100 people said this about $1k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Predicting a ceiling on something like this is just guessing IMO
Once it's been up and down and through the ringer, and currently sitting at $1000 (never rising higher than $1350), $50k would be extremely unlikely.
In any kind of market like this, the big winners tend to be the early believers who jumped in for super-cheap and watched it take off. The people coming in later can make money if they come in at the right time, but they're highly unlikely to realize something like 50x their initial investment.
I believe there is a legitimate legal argument to pay taxes on the date of cashout, rather than when you won the money.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacIt really depends on how much you earn. The more you make, typically the more you pay in % termsQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Your second statement may be true in some form depending on exact laws. I know some people who report based on what they cash out and not what they win and keep online.
So if one wins and converts their online poker chips to Bitcoin should they pay taxes on the bitcoin? Or pay taxes when they convert the bitcoin to USD at some point?
This is because the sites you're playing on are illegal and not recognized banking institutions. They are basically giving you an IOU for the money, which they may or may not actually pay you.
So your tax argument could be, "I'm gambling on illegal websites and I haven't made a penny with them until they actually pay me", and then cite countless online gambling sites where big "winners" got screwed and never saw a penny.
Similarly, a comparison could be made to regular employment. If you do work for your employer on December 31, 2016, but get paid on January 2, 2017, then this is 2017, NOT 2016 income.
Poker checks (and other forms of cashouts) can probably work the same way. If the IRS balked, you could probably get a tax attorney to successfully argue it for you, or even manage to argue it successfully yourself.
Saw this today. There are a couple of stories out there on it.
BTCC Releases Mobi, a Multicurrency Bitcoin Wallet
https://www.btcc.com/news/en/announc.../mobi-release/
The conversion aspect caught my attention. I downloaded but I don't have any BTC for obvious reasons. However, I would like to muck around with it at some point.
I use social clues to know when to get out. During the dot com boom, you had people lined up 100 deep to sign up for new brokerage accounts. That was a sign to get out. In early 2011, silver was going on a monster run. It went from $17 to $50 per ounce. I saw a billboard in Los Angeles that said we buy silver that was just put up on a Friday. That following Monday was the peak and it dropped from $50 to now $17 per ounce. And now I am getting emails about Bitcoin ATM's opening up at gas stations and liquor stores. It is time to get out folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacWhen it was $2 people said this about $100, when it was $100 people said this about $1k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Predicting a ceiling on something like this is just guessing IMO
Did you get out of Microsoft once people started buying computers?Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assI use social clues to know when to get out. During the dot com boom, you had people lined up 100 deep to sign up for new brokerage accounts. That was a sign to get out. In early 2011, silver was going on a monster run. It went from $17 to $50 per ounce. I saw a billboard in Los Angeles that said we buy silver that was just put up on a Friday. That following Monday was the peak and it dropped from $50 to now $17 per ounce. And now I am getting emails about Bitcoin ATM's opening up at gas stations and liquor stores. It is time to get out folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
And Apple once everyone had an iphone?
How many shares of blackberry do you own?Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogDid you get out of Microsoft once people started buying computers?Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
And Apple once everyone had an iphone?
Assuming a hardfork is inevitable and the value plummets, will merchants (like online casinos/poker rooms) stop offering bitcoin as a withdrawal/deposit method? I don't hold any significant amount of btc but use it as a go between for gambling sites. It's the best method currently available and it would suck if it were to go the way of the dodo.
Blunder, you can still buy a Blackberry.
Bitcoin will still be a method to transfer funds no matter the price.
How about that 1100 resistance call, huh?
I get the feeling it is going to flux around 900-1100 until the hard fork is confirmed and then the bottom will drop right out. What is the benefit for merchants to accept bitcoin transactions?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
A non-cash payment that has a non-zero market value is taxable. For example, if you win a new car in a game show, the IRS will treat your receiving that non-cash prize as taxable income. Substitute "bitcoin" for "new car" to get your answer regarding the taxable nature of a bitcoin payout from a poker site.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI believe there is a legitimate legal argument to pay taxes on the date of cashout, rather than when you won the money.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
This is because the sites you're playing on are illegal and not recognized banking institutions. They are basically giving you an IOU for the money, which they may or may not actually pay you.
So your tax argument could be, "I'm gambling on illegal websites and I haven't made a penny with them until they actually pay me", and then cite countless online gambling sites where big "winners" got screwed and never saw a penny.
Similarly, a comparison could be made to regular employment. If you do work for your employer on December 31, 2016, but get paid on January 2, 2017, then this is 2017, NOT 2016 income.
Poker checks (and other forms of cashouts) can probably work the same way. If the IRS balked, you could probably get a tax attorney to successfully argue it for you, or even manage to argue it successfully yourself.
oh, I know this one. NONE.Quote:
Originally Posted by BlunderMakerWhat is the benefit for merchants to accept bitcoin transactions?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Gambling sites have the incentive. But they are the merchants of death. Niche market.
Check out Mobi.me I was looking for a little feedback on this in an earlier post.
One of the Lee guys, Charlie or Bobby, I forget which ... the guy who runs BTCC offers it.
Mobi appears to allow you to hold fiat and BTC and swap between the two. He does this offline of the blockchain. He hedges the Bitcoin price himself.
So if you gamble and feel the need to hold some bullets to reload quickly but don't want exposure to the volatility this appears to be a useful wallet.
If you want some action between hands perhaps you can swing back and forth between BTC & fiat within your wallet.
Of course, I wonder what Mobi's juice is.
It's interesting to me anyway. Once baseball starts I'll prolly give it a try for lulz.
I fucking hate the link to my phone number. It feels ripe for a hack but what ya gonna do?
It can be tough to stomach for an investor but the btc has been so predictable lately. It's a 10% to 15% profit on your money every week if you can tolerate the swings just buying it up after it's dipped around $150 and selling it off when it goes back up $100 to $150 range.
btw welcome back bottomset
$969. Going lot lower.
Looking for a bottom and has been gobbling up sizeQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Maybe this belongs in BGC's thread too
saw 415 offered @ $959 ( $400,000 ) and it was snapped up whole and it couldn't keep the price from drilling
I just bought some up at $950 cuz that was the price I was looking for even though I saw it go down to about $945ish and 20 minutes later it's down to $929 but I think it will go back up.
Gonna repeat what I said and people thought I was crazy I truly believe people are dumping BTC and shifting to ETH for the time being ETH now has broken over $50 each (51.42 on Coinbase as I type this). BTC has rebounded slightly to $939 but still they are moving inversely which is why it seems to make sense.. As for the fork concerns which maybe driving this.. ETC didn't totally fail when the fork happened with Etherium but its worth a fraction of what ETH is.. (last price check was little over $2.37 or 2% of ETH)and ETC pricewise isn't do anything really unlike ETH which has risen 4 fold from around $13 to its current price in this last month.. As BTC has been tanking ETH is rising just seems its nowhere near a coincidence as its been a week since my last comment on this which people questioned and its up 25% from last week when it was in the low 40s.
that eth play is confirmed strong. i got my meager btc savings into eth at 43 and it saved me a bit of grief.
The thing that differentiates ethereum from Bitcoin is that there may be a killer app lurking.
Bitcoin's killer app were the exchanges and the fun to be had speculating. Ethereum has smart contracts available in the blockchain that allow it to be really useful in predictive markets. Stuff like sports, finance and political betting.
You gotta play with ethereum chips. There is a question as to who the referees on final outcome will be but there are a couple outfits that are close to release.
I am certain sports betting hits first.
So I have offered an example of actual utility other than a means to transfer money.
Ethereum just seems to have a better story.
Disclaimer:
This message was written out of boredom and passing interest and in no way endorses Bitcoin or Ethereum and in no way violates the DD spirit of this thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I think you may be overthinking this.
The only significance to ethereum is that it's yet another reason why btc is a wriggling corpse filled with blood caked jackals. It has no viable end game, there are no stores accepting eth, no eth casinos, you cant buy hitmen or fentanyl with eth on darkweb.
It's price is going up because, like virtually everything else, the btc charade is running out of mystic bullshit to prop it up.
I was immediately stricken with embarrassment.
Too late to delete.