Well that's a horrible start.
Under in bad shape after less than one quarter.
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Well that's a horrible start.
Under in bad shape after less than one quarter.
Got two for tonight:
Golden State +107 vs. Lakers (GS +1.5 or better ok)
Denver vs. Indiana - Under 223.5
First off, just wanted to congratulate Daly on a beautiful pick and a great run of picks. He is a real solid guy and has been sharp af. My biggest regret is to not just have been pounding his plays as of late. Instead of treading water, I would probably be buying an Escalade myself. I’ve only been here for almost a year, but his track record is incredibly impressive. Well done!
The irony in betting golf is that you can get way to in your head and over think things, just like the golfers do. Clearly over the past few weeks with Brooks, Morikawa, Homa & JT winning when their form was not particularly great, it shows that betting golf takes more than just going off stats, current form, course layout, etc. If you look at JTs win this weekend, over Saturday and Sunday he struck the ball just about as good as anyone has ever done. That is no surprise. He has that game in him. Huge chance was to get him going into the weekend at huge odds for cheap.
I have had a ton of 2nd, tied for 2nd or 3rds in my outrights over the last year or so. Tommy missing a two foot putt in a playoff to Aaron Rai when I had a 60K sweat is the one that really sticks with me. Right now I am currently in my head regarding DJ. I had a lot of exposure on him this weekend. Looked like he was going to turn it in on Friday after a 4 under first nine, but TPC will punish you 2 or 3 shots for one bad shot (b/c of the penalty areas/up and downs being so tough) and it didn’t work out.
I think maybe he was the beneficiary of having no crowds. Last time he really played up to snuff was Saudi Arabia. The European Tour had no fans in attendance and keeps a very strict bubble. DJ always had the tools and everyone said he finally figured it all out last year. But maybe those 30 unders were a product of not having to manage the nerves and the adrenaline that the crowd (even at 25% capacity) brings into play. Maybe this is another product of over-thinking. Time will tell. I already have a good amount on him at Augusta, so I have to hope I’m wrong to a certain extent.
As for this week, I’m keeping this shit real simple. Niemann at 20-1 or some places 18-1. The difference between mid pack and up on the leaderboard is a couple putts or a few decent breaks. Yes, he has unfortunately not closed things out in the past in that playoff earlier this year or the other week he contended when Na won. He may have to win by a few strokes tbh. No PGA field is weak, but this is a close to it as he will come. Golden opportunity for him.
Big matchup Fade is Westwood for me. Awesome stuff from him last two weeks but his price this week is absurd. He complained he the was lethargic Sunday and he traveled to Augusta between tournaments this week after being in the last group the last two weeks. I look for things to catch up with him. Big fade for me.
GL everyone. Btw no idea why there is an emoji on this post, don’t know what it means or how to get rid of it.
Great job Daly!
Enjoy the Escalade
Well now i need to play the collection game before I get my keys....Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
After an 0-2 smackdown yesterday, I'll try again.
New York at Philadelphia - Over 219 (Embiid out, Rose out, Payton doubtful, Robinson out)
Miami vs Cleveland - Under 206.5
I could run through the whole thought process but I’ll bottom line it.
Give me S Lowry at +2300
Someone in the top ten of the market is going to win this week. Won’t be a random +50-1 guy I don’t think.
J Neimann is going to start to win soon, I don’t hate that pick but I don’t think this is the venue for him.
+2200 on BOL right nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I fired. GL us.
LFGQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff+2200 on BOL right nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I fired. GL us.
Just keep in mind you aren’t supposed to win 25-1 bets every week. My money is down so you know I like the pick but betting golf tournaments is like having a good defensive catcher. If you hit 20% of the time you can still win in the long run.
Yeah I know these +2000 type things just hit every so often. If it's +EV, I'm in.
Pretty amazing how bad my feel has been for the NBA post-break. Well, bad feel and bad luck. I've lost a number of very close ones, but I've also bricked some really badly.
Today I'm getting the one game where Cleveland and Miami score (look at their scores recently), and the Knicks/76ers somehow put up 41 points in the first. Opposite of what I need.
Ugh.
2nd quarter is looking better for both, but the first was so bad for both teams that it's going to be an uphill battle to win either.
lowry at +2515 on acr book
btw sorry I didn't post picks today had a 3 unit win day but tilted from my picks here losing so didn't post. Not that sorry though as I don't many here tailing my picks anyway lol.
Yeah, tough NBA week. Even worse for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by matos
The ploppies must be making a killing, though. Lots of those picks coming through. Even one of the two picks I won since the break was a ploppy pick (Atlanta -4, which you also had and won lol).
Golf - The Honda Classic - Tournament WinnerQuote:
Originally Posted by matos
To Win Outright
Shane Lowry +2500 03/18/2021 (03:00 AM)
And all of a sudden that Lowry bet looks even better.
For the record I did splash on Neimann and Im, like .33 on each.
The three of them combined must cover a lot of winning runouts
Fall off the bike, get back on...
Starting in a few:
Cleveland vs. Boston - Under 212.5
Can't catch a break.
Considered 3 unders today: Cleveland, Denver, and Memphis.
Went with Cleveland, because I've been cold and didn't want to make 3 picks. Denver and Memphis unders looking great.
Cleveland also looked great after the first half. Then a 63-point 3rd and now pointless fouling in a non-close game at the end of the 4th, and I'm going to lose most likely,
:fail
Yup, I lost. You'd think a 95 point first half would be a lock for the under, but apparently not.
STATE -2
Moving forward, I will be fading every Druff NBA pick until further notice. Ice cold, sad to see from a bettor I respect. Normally I think he has a good feel. Not seeing the board lately!
Quote:
Originally Posted by NickyPipes
Proper fade etiquette is to just be happy collecting and not post this. Unless you are secretly trying to reverse the trend by posting this, in which case I just fucked that up. My bad.
Just messing around. Druff is solid. Just a matter of time. GL.
Not worried about etiquette “guy”, worried about collecting checks and having sexQuote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeQuote:
Originally Posted by NickyPipes
Proper fade etiquette is to just be happy collecting and not post this. Unless you are secretly trying to reverse the trend by posting this, in which case I just fucked that up. My bad.
Just messing around. Druff is solid. Just a matter of time. GL.
Can’t say I’m rooting for him, but it was good to see Lee
I’m some sort of fish betting Michigan State after (edit)correctly predicted in the March Madness thread what a team of chumps they are! Cant even finish off UCLA who sucked late in the year! My mistake!
In the early game I got very lucky (again) on the Florida over. Nice 3 at end of regulation to gift overtime and over.
Coming up I like GTECH +5,5 can it get to 6? Seem to be an underrated team that finished strong. Loyola has the love because they had one of the greatest runs of all time but I can see Tech winning outright here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyCan’t say I’m rooting for him, but it was good to see Lee
Very nice Very nice guy but at least I was right fading him Niemann would be in the mix 0 for 3 in up and downs around the green 3 bogeys all 10 foot or less putts Can't get a break
Kings/Celtics u232 -110
LFG!
Obv need to rep Shane, but this was a sea of humanity
Took a day off.
I'll return with this ploppy pick starting at 4:35pm PT:
San Antonio -5 at Cleveland
DeRozan is returning after missing some time due to his father's death. Obviously this is different than returning from injury, so he won't be on a minutes restriction.
Here's one you have time to bet:
Portland vs. Denver - Under 227.5 (227 ok)
For both my horses 6 or 7 under was the goal. So hard to score here and make up too much ground. Shane really did the job and put himself in a good spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyLFG!
I got more exposure on JN but I’ll be ok if Lowry can take it home.
Conventional wisdom says Wise will fade and someone will catch him.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeFor both my horses 6 or 7 under was the goal. So hard to score here and make up too much ground. Shane really did the job and put himself in a good spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyLFG!
I got more exposure on JN but I’ll be ok if Lowry can take it home.
Hate to say it but I’m not sure. This kids got a lot of game. Maybe he feels the heat a little over the weekend where he hasn’t really been there before but he has the talent to win for sure.
If Wise fades Shane is right where he needs to be. He’s third favorite at ~ +700 at the moment so we got some value. Let’s hope we get a good runout.
End of day tomorrow you want to be within 3 of the leader. 4 the most and so long as it’s one guy you chasing and not a wide field. 4+ and we toast.
I better not get fucked in trash time here. 109-103, SA shooting free throws with 39s. SA had a 12 point lead with 1:03 left.
Well I squeaked it out, but not without drama.
Brodric Thomas (yes, the great Brodric Thomas) made a 3-pointer with 8s left, to make it a 4 point game.
After a foul and two made free throws, it was 6 points. Nance Jr missed his buzzer shot (which wasn't a distant shot, by the way), and I held on to barely win it 116-110 on my -5 bet.
Never easy these days.
Damn, I am about to lose a big bet from clicking the wrong bet. I meant to pick Suns 1Q and thought I did. And then I sweated the entire first quarter which pretty much went down to the last 30 seconds whether they were going to cover or not. And then when they did cover I checked the account and saw I had actually bet Suns 2Q. And of course Suns are getting rocked in 2nd Q, so bad the coach has gotten thrown out complaining at refs.
Brutal swing.
I see Shane is tied for 5th. Probably not gonna make it, but I'm hoping.
gogogo
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I got no clue but the name caught my eye you mentioned, I had splashed 20 on him and Landry.. guy I know who is a good tipper gave me the guy and I had the names twisted...so bet both....
It was Lowry he gave me...hahaha. Fkn SSbx...
Golf - The Honda Classic - Tournament Winner
To Win Outright
[] Shane Lowry +2500 03/18/2021 (03:00 AM) (Pending)
I had Mavericks team total O115. With 6 minutes to go in game they only needed to score 5 more points for me to push. There is now 1 minute left and they have only scored 2 points since then. Un-Fucking-Real.
Edit: Wow. I got so fucking lucky, after almost getting brutally unlucky. Mavs were stuck at 114 and had given up and Hardaway just made a 30 foot pull-up 3 for the save.
Euro Tour live bet Burmester +850.
What an absolute bed shit by everyone in the afternoon. Would have been better off if lowery missed the eagle on 18 yesterday and feed off an hour earlier. Wind really fucked everyone.
Oh well - we move On