yes and went with you on all of them. You are in the zone. Congrats. And thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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yes and went with you on all of them. You are in the zone. Congrats. And thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It's funny, because when I was ice cold as Jewdonk's AC, I was doing so poorly that even the picks I considered (but didn't post/bet) were getting killed.
This week, in addition to going 12-3, I'm like 6-0 in ones I considered picking/posting but didn't. Obviously can't count those in my record, but I definitely have confidence back after feeling kinda shaken last weekend.
The big difference is that I'm winning a lot by wide margins again. That's the sign that you are really seeing things well. During my slump, not only was I losing, but the winning picks were mostly squeaking by.
My process is only slightly different than the prior two weeks where I slumped. I think I just ran bad, and maybe posted a few marginal ones I shouldn't have. Obviously I won't continue winning at this pace, but it's nice to be hitting these again.
Kick ass n take names, or should I say, keep kickin’ ass n take names.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You lost the Indiana pick despite the Lakers shooting 14.3% from the free throw line.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Yes, you read that right.
14.3%.
Worst in NBA history.
The problem was that Indiana was 2-for-25 from 3-point land, which was the worst ever for any Lakers opponent.
:fail
Pats Jags
I am determined to enjoy my last day of being liquid.
I have been questioning the lack of movement with totals given the Brady narrative. Well, I saw 44.5 kick in this morning (open 47).
I am presently of the opinion Brady & Belichick are screwing with us. Brady shows up wearing two red gloves at yesterday’s press conference and refused to engage whilst smirking. Belichick holds the rest of the league & the league office in such utter contempt with the belief they are all idiots. He is not wrong and it’s entertaining.
My understanding is Brady received 4 stitches to the knuckle of his thumb. Maybe the thumb was hyperextended or jammed.
Brady could toss 375 Sunday.
On the other hand, for the haters I offer this:
Drew Bledsoe preceded Brady. He was over rated and over payed. Nothing was ever gonna happen with him. He was named honorary team captain for Sunday’s game. Of all the players with 4 or 5 rings why this bum?
If a meteor strikes Gillette Stadium and the Jags win we have with Bledsoe an “ashes to ashes and dust to dust”. narrative. Pats run could be done. Coulda been Garappolo who put up 40 against Jaguars. Pats could have kept him to the end of the year. But noooo!
My problem is I have to fade Brady getting pulled with a lead that covers the spread and Hoyer coughs up a lung and the ball.
I am gonna take the wife out tonight and hope to get lucky cause I ain’t gonna be able to perform in the manner to which she is accustomed tomorrow or potentially long term.
Otherwise, know that my suicide isn’t anything you could have prevented. A lot of people blame themselves after such things. “Maybe I coulda said something”. It’s not you. I am the star of my own movie, not you.
There is a reason you don’t bet NFL on a preceding Monday. This risk got real and I continued to drill holes on the spread’s ride down.
I'm continuing to bet NE along with you. -7@-120 now for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Yeah. I watched the whole game. Pretty brutal. I also had an awesome DFS lineup going with Collison, who didn't even play the 4th Q because he was shooting so bad. It was definitely the Jordan Clarkson show. The rumors are Lakers are trying to trade him and Randle to clear up cap space for this summer.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou lost the Indiana pick despite the Lakers shooting 14.3% from the free throw line.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Yes, you read that right.
14.3%.
Worst in NBA history.
The problem was that Indiana was 2-for-25 from 3-point land, which was the worst ever for any Lakers opponent.
:fail
And so it starts:
Pink over 120 seconds national anthem-130
Not really feeling anything for the two early games.
I'll be back a little later, closer to the night games, to post picks on the others.
Over 26.5 Shortest FG NE/Jac
Gun to my head Jacksonville has first penalty
You had a good run.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Brady's smirk at the press conference said it all. He hurt his hand but is going to drop 35+ on the Jags.
This is not their first rodeo and won't be their last. I still think they have 2 more years.
Pats Gostkowski missed PAT or field goal kind of a gimme.
Early evening games:
Houston +3 -105
Houston under 236.5 (236 ok) *** (see below)
Milwaukee +7 (no Antetokounmpo, no Reddick)
*** The Houston under pick is a "feel" pick, based upon my belief that totals like 236 are too damn high. This was pick was not made with my usual analytics. I have a belief (which is not yet verified in any way) that such a total is +EV to fire under in standard NBA games, simply due to the fact that it is very difficult to maintain such a high scoring pace for an entire 48 minute game. However, if you wish to stick to picks made through my usual strategy, you should skip this one. The Houston side was made through my usual strategies.
Also, as the Bucks are missing Antetokounmpo today, while I like that side anyway (and my numbers led me to it), beware that this game is a bit unpredictable, so there's a reasonable chance that the Bucks will get blown out.
Also, for whatever reason, the sharps are leaning AGAINST my Houston pick today, which is very rare. Almost all of my picks end up where the sharps are either for them or neutral towards them.
So this is kind of a strange day so far.
You've been warned.
I might make more picks on the final games later.
Miocic under 1.5 -140 is a good value
Speaking of high totals, I just saw one of the highest ones I've ever seen in an NBA game.
OKC/Cleveland reached a total of 272 in regulation.
If the line was 271, I have to say I would have placed a big bet on the under.
Eventually Brady will deteriorate. Until he does, never ever bet against the Patriots. It's that simple. Just don't do it.
FYI: I'll be posting a lot tonight on UFC 220.
Going to make a truckload (I hope)
Starting with a half unit bet on MAKHACHEV -290
Followed by Barzola win by decision-140
Borrowing this one from a buddy....
In the last 24 years of championship Sunday, there have been two FGs made longer than 50.5 yards.
Kind of hard to tout a winner on a -290 fav, but I'll take it.