its not that i think its impossible, i just think its far more likely that they are trying to make sure as few kamala voters as possible blow off voting because they think its in the bag.
also its a very good CYA play in case she loses of course.
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its not that i think its impossible, i just think its far more likely that they are trying to make sure as few kamala voters as possible blow off voting because they think its in the bag.
also its a very good CYA play in case she loses of course.
Looks like RFK is going to endorse Trump and probably drop out. This guarantees him a position in the Trump Administration and probably puts him in the top 5 for 2028. This should seal the deal for Trump, Polymarket just put him in the lead today based on this news. Look for a 5 point lead for Trump in September, and of course the NY Judge ordering Trump for a perp walk to Rikers. That should make October irrelevant and you should see a complete Republican sweep in November.
https://youtu.be/vC5cHjcgt5g?si=AQWrEC2VdWilh9Ix
This just dropped.
Trump is now ahead of Harris 52-46 on Polymarket. It will be interesting to see the averages after the DNC wraps up and the Kennedy drop out takes effect. My guess is it will remain about the same give or take 4 points until the debate.
I believe a major event will propel Trump to victory, such as a world event, or an economic shock. Also, there is always a risk Trump goes too far off script it's a bridge too far for some. Of course a medical event for Trump is also a possibility. But I do believe some type of singular event will swing the election.
Just saw on some left leaning network, the guest going orgasmic on this poll from today:
National: Trump vs. Harris
Data for Progress (D)**
Harris 49, Trump 46
Harris
+3
I have no idea, what Data for Progress is, but it looks like a left leaning poll.
Of course this poll came out today, and this is generally a main stream poll. Of course, this poll was not mentioned.
National: Trump vs. Harris
HarrisX
Harris 49, Trump 51
Trump
+2
I have never seen anything like this, the Media in the tank for someone who have never received a vote, who was completely rejected by everyone in her run for 2020. This coronation just makes Trump stronger as the election gets closer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
First poll is trash.
HarrisX I'm pretty sure called the 2020 margin exactly in the final poll, but even they typically are a couple points off to the left.
Yeah, I figured the first poll was trash. I used to deep dive the polls, now I just go to Polymarket. The big money already has the polls the public sees a day earlier, and the internal polling we never see. I just know with regards to polls, Clinton was up 7 and Biden up 9 at this point. That is a far cry from the Harris 2, I am not sure why the media is so orgasmic at this point. Well, I know why, it just makes no sense because they are just going to perpetrate a massive dose of TDS November 6th. But maybe that is the point, CNN's ratings fell off a cliff in the Biden's regime, so they know where to go for ratings so they can get back to some form of solvency with four more years of Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
First poll is trash.
HarrisX I'm pretty sure called the 2020 margin exactly in the final poll, but even they typically are a couple points off to the left.
LOL tilted af.
Keep in mind Team Retard that bottomset is the verminnard of political polling here, being horrifically wrong and failing has been the tale of the tape for all.pf his 50+ years.
:lol2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe
verm was pfa's greatest fade. rip.
Isn’t Kalam the new incarnation of Verm?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVpr_14W...pg&name=mediumQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIsn’t Kalam the new incarnation of Verm?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Pinnacle is pretty much the only betting site I pay attention to when it comes to politics, as they by far take the largest wagers. I also like that there are only two options. (Trump and Field) Keeps it relatively uncluttered by noise.
It's interesting to me that Trump was +113 the day before the DNC started, and at the end of Kamala's speech it was -110 each way...
Most of the offshore sites are fairly accurate. Predicitit is distorted due to its restrictions and fees, basically its an outlier due to its structure. Right now Trump has a slight lead. That will probably maintain until the debate. That seminal moment, the debate, should define the election. Someone will make a point, and that should carry the candidate to the finish line. My guess is Trump has the upper hand given the state of inflation, world events, border, etc.. I think Harris will play up Abortion and Trump's legal problems, two issues already baked in. Either way, I think this is the only debate they will have and it will enable won of them to cruise to victory. I don't think its going to be close in the end, someone is going to gain the upper hand and it will break. I am making a significant bet, but only right after the debate. Too much risk and variables to do so beforehand.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccos
clinton obliterated trump on their first debate; trump literally tore up his notes while scowling at the end of it.
the person on this site who made low-mid 6 figures betting on trump was asked what he predicated his confidence on, and he pointed out the energy disparity between clinton's rallys and trumps.
id be more surprised if that wasnt a reliable signal again than if it was.
Crowd sizes, yard signs, I just think are 2016. That was 8 years ago. I truly believe the betting markets (the big ones not Predicitit) are the true indicator now. The whales get the data before anyone else, especially the internal data us schlubs never see. You bet millions you get the secret password. If you see a break in the betting markets for either candidate, it's over. Trafagler while out of favor now, nailed it is 2016 when his polling question of "Who is your neighbor voting for" gave him the polling advantage. My guess is in 2024 the whales have dialed into a pollster who has the secret sauce. Who that is, what the couple questions are, my guess is you have to be a whale to get that access.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullCrowd sizes, yard signs, I just think are 2016. That was 8 years ago. I truly believe the betting markets (the big ones not Predicitit) are the true indicator now. The whales get the data before anyone else, especially the internal data us schlubs never see. You bet millions you get the secret password. If you see a break in the betting markets for either candidate, it's over. Trafagler while out of favor now, nailed it is 2016 when his polling question of "Who is your neighbor voting for" gave him the polling advantage. My guess is in 2024 the whales have dialed into a pollster who has the secret sauce. Who that is, what the couple questions are, my guess is you have to be a whale to get that access.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
my concern with betting markets as indicators is that i think the overwhelming majority of people who are gambling money online are libertarian/right wing. especially on crypto but fantasy sports and sports betting in general as well to a lesser extent. so when i see betting sites skew right while data science sites show kamala with an edge, i assume the gambling sites are pricing in sentiment bias.
but whatever i thought clinton was a lock until i saw florida was up for grabs. not my specialty, this.
Most polls are biased to the Dem against Trump. Clinton I think was up 7 at this point in 2016, and Biden up a country mile. Both barely lost or barely won. Here is the deal, polls don't take into the fact of the ghost voter. A close relative of mine is nearly 80 now. He has voted a grand total of 1 time in his life, 2016 for Trump. He did not vote in 2020 because he had a dangerous batch of Covid earlier in the year and did not want to mess with absentee ballots so he sat it out. He will vote this go around for Trump. His daughter will drive him to the polling station for early voting. Anecdotal yes, I get it, but it really is not. Trump is able to draw voters like this in. With every advantage available in 2020, Biden barely won, that dynamic simply does not exist this go around. I stick to my point, Kamala is not Barack Obama, most black men are not going to wait in line to vote for someone that looks like Hale Berry married to a Jew lawyer. It's just not going to happen. I see the rust belt folding like a tent for the Dems and go hard Trump. But before I bet, I want to see the debate, for the sole reason Trump could say something to implode his candidacy.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
my concern with betting markets as indicators is that i think the overwhelming majority of people who are gambling money online are libertarian/right wing. especially on crypto but fantasy sports and sports betting in general as well to a lesser extent. so when i see betting sites skew right while data science sites show kamala with an edge, i assume the gambling sites are pricing in sentiment bias.
but whatever i thought clinton was a lock until i saw florida was up for grabs. not my specialty, this.