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Neo conservatism might be too abstract.
100’s of thousands died because of Bush thru to Biden. Untold were maimed for absolutely no justifiable reason.
Women and children drone bombed.
There is a special place in hell reserved for these guys.
Yeah, I’ll tag him.
2024 National Republican Primary
• Trump — 47%
• DeSantis — 33%
• Pence — 5%
• Haley — 4%
• Noem — 2%
• Pompeo — 1%
• Sununu — 1%
• Ramaswamy — 1%
• Christie — 1%
• Cheney — 1%
2-Way:
• Trump — 52%
• DeSantis — 42%
Quinnipiac (A-) | RVs | 03/23-27
Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
lol attacks on freedom. cry more.
:noose
I’ll be honest pudding fingers could be the death of desantis
Equally amazing is that this author predicted this 3 weeks ago
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023...-2024-bid.html
Of all the Druff memes hotdog on a stick is one of the most enduring. It’s easy and accessible. Humans are like that and you can’t dismiss the I importance of puddingQuote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
If DeSantis immediately responded in a self deprecating way like Trump and McDonalds - revealing his core confidence and social skills then it woulda passed but DeSantis is a bit awkward and that’s being kind.
Rolling Stone doesn't hide its bias. They hate the GOP. They have been going after Desantis pretty hard, because they see his as the real threat to Biden, and they want Trump to dispense of him (and then lose to Biden).
But this article raises some good points. Well, at least during the first half. The second half of the article goes into the weeds, but it does appear that some big donors are continuing to get frustrated with Desantis.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...ty-1234716875/
The problem is that Desantis doesn't seem to know how to play the donor game. He just wants their money but doesn't want to listen to them. That's not how it works. Donors give money because they enjoy having influence. Sometimes the influence involves personal political feelings, and sometimes it's to garner favorable treatment for their business later. But either way, you can't ignore them, and you can't dismiss them, or they will go away.
Desantis doesn't even hobnob with them -- or anyone -- after his speeches. I mentioned this before. He gives a speech, then ducks out. He doesn't want to spend time with the donors, doesn't want to talk 1-on-1 with voters, and doesn't want to do anything beyond make speeches and make policy. That might make him an effective politician, but it makes him a poor candidate.
Recall his trajectory in Florida. He narrowly beat corrupt closet gay druggie Andrew Gillum, and only after Trump helped drag him over the finish line. Then he governed in Florida really well, and was able to turn a lot of moderate Democrats and independents his way, by both doing the job well and focusing upon issues where Democrats were weak with swing voters. Then he was super popular, and clobbered (admittedly weak) opponent Charlie Crist in the general election.
Great job. But that doesn't win you the Presidency, which is an entirely different animal.
Trump has the gift of making people feel he really cares about them. He's a rich guy from a rich family who never acts like he's above his voters. He meets them, he praises them, he tells them that he's the only guy who will fight for them. That's why he has such a loyal base, and that's why so many of his supporters overlook his many obvious flaws and personality defects.
Desantis just isn't good at that. He doesn't have the Trump weaknesses, but he's weak where Trump is strong. And that might be his undoing.
It's a stupid fact, but you have to have social skills to be electable for the highest office in America.
DeSantis is a boring knob, despite espousing all the Team Retard's trigger issues.
He’s never had a chance unless Trump dies. I still have yet to meet some DeSantis die hard. Conservatives I’ve watched dip a toe into the water and say Desantis may be more electable promptly get that toe cut off by their own friends and called groomers. Talk radio around here, yard signs, social media, all Trump all day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Guy is loved in here in Florida.
That said Im willing to concede Trump has more charm to him. He also an unelectable asshole in the mind of ~ 40% of the voters that dont see that level of charm.
Saw my first Presidential campaign ad two or three days ago in Massachusetts. Looked at my wife - “it’s begun”
As ex Florida homeowners she has a vague awareness of DeSantis. My exit was exquisitely timed. I woulda been wiped out or living under a blue tarp and developing an ulcer or some mold related disease.
She’s headed down to Ft Lauderdale tomorrow to see some friends we abandoned down there. She still likes Florida. I’ll pass.
She reserved a car but the rental agency was closed due to flooding. No call, of course, from them.
The ad was a bit cringe. It was not created or developed by his staff. Some donor money with his approval, I guess. I tried to find it on YouTube. Not there.
The difference between being a governor and president is similar to the difference between being an airline pilot and an astronaut, Druff. You gotta have some compelling leadership skills to complement whatever agenda you believe in.
Woke politics ain’t enough. I got other issues that are even more important to me. We are fucked up in countless ways.
DeSantis has this authoritarian vibe instead of libertarian. Just an impression. He’s got some selling to do. He isn’t the only option.
It’s an amazing skill to make people who couldn’t have less in common with you think you’re family. Trump is an expert at that, and these people have taken so much shit defending him for a long time now they’re invested. He’s family.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Guy is loved in here in Florida.
That said Im willing to concede Trump has more charm to him. He also an unelectable asshole in the mind of ~ 40% of the voters that dont see that level of charm.
Plus, it’s always the crazy people who randomly spit out truth. Like Courtney Love with Harvey Weinstein. Both are nuts, but crazy people have no filter. They occasionally hit it out of the park. That’s endearing on some level.
I think he may win. Biden victory requires all that energy to show up again, and post-Covid, I’m not so sure. Trump loses no one.
https://youtu.be/sdLdz1zKRFc
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRIt’s an amazing skill to make people who couldn’t have less in common with you think you’re family. Trump is an expert at that, and these people have taken so much shit defending him for a long time now they’re invested. He’s family.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Plus, it’s always the crazy people who randomly spit out truth. Like Courtney Love with Harvey Weinstein. Both are nuts, but crazy people have no filter. They occasionally hit it out of the park. That’s endearing on some level.
I think he may win. Biden victory requires all that energy to show up again, and post-Covid, I’m not so sure. Trump loses no one.
https://youtu.be/sdLdz1zKRFc
Im not worried about the X amount of voters that are “trump” not showing up. They 100% will and they will beg all of their friends to go with them.
Problem is its not a process where if you get x % of the vote you get to move on to the next round. At some point he needs to win the general again. Its not the X%. Its the Y% that wouldnt vote for him if Pol Pot was running against him. At this point Y is at least = to X.
He cant win enough of the undecideds to get to 50.1%
If it gets to that point I hope Im wrong and he will have my support.
The democrats had this conversation after Iowa and NH when it was clear Bernie would win the nomination and understood he would never win the general and it was Biden who was the most electable. They were right. The GOP needs to do the same. The major issue here is if Trump wins Iowa or NH he wont quit. He wont stand aside (and he probably shouldn't if Im being fair).
2024 National Republican Primary:
Trump 53% (+25)
DeSantis 28%
Haley 5%
Pence 5%
Cheney 2%
Cruz 2%
T. Scott 2%
Pompeo 1%
Christie 0%
Ramaswamy 0%
.
Head-2-Head:
Trump 57% (+22)
DeSantis 35%
.@premisedata, 573 RV, 4/14-17
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20230419…
I guess it only becomes relevant if the Republicans can produce someone who could win in the first place. Who could beat Biden? The popular vote is pretty immaterial and it wouldn't shock me for a first-term Republican to never win the national popular vote again.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Im not worried about the X amount of voters that are “trump” not showing up. They 100% will and they will beg all of their friends to go with them.
Problem is its not a process where if you get x % of the vote you get to move on to the next round. At some point he needs to win the general again. Its not the X%. Its the Y% that wouldnt vote for him if Pol Pot was running against him. At this point Y is at least = to X.
He cant win enough of the undecideds to get to 50.1%
If it gets to that point I hope Im wrong and he will have my support.
The democrats had this conversation after Iowa and NH when it was clear Bernie would win the nomination and understood he would never win the general and it was Biden who was the most electable. They were right. The GOP needs to do the same. The major issue here is if Trump wins Iowa or NH he wont quit. He wont stand aside (and he probably shouldn't if Im being fair).
The Republicans need a candidate who is going to have appeal in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Georgia (Apparently :snickers: ), Arizona...some combination of those. I can't believe I'm saying this, but they also have to run someone who is not so unpalatable that they find a way to really fuck up and lose Texas or North Carolina.
If 2022 should have taught Republicans anything, then it should be that the midterm was a great test case for proving that Far Right social policies don't land well with the general electorate. I know, surprise, fucking surprise, right? Somehow, it did come as a surprise both to Trump and Doug Mastriano. I don't think Oz was that far to the right. He was just a carpetbagging quack TV doctor and made a few gaffes. He also lost to someone who barely registered a pulse at the time.
Of course, Oz's team also, essentially, mocked Fetterman for even having a stroke in the first place. That always lands well.
Trump, the least net favorable candidate ever, won in 2016 ONLY because he got the right states and was going up against the second-least net favorable candidate ever. Most people weren't voting FOR Hillary, but really, were voting AGAINST Trump in that one, as well. Trump, strangely enough, also hadn't gone full Trump yet. His most vocal supporters also hadn't quite demonstrated how truly insane and awful they are as people. I did know they were mostly stupid; largely Evangelicals, after all.
Unfortunately, Pennsylvania also proved that Evangelical mouth-breathers aren't particularly pragmatic as human beings. Of course, that should come as a surprise to nobody. The Republicans managed to nominate Oz, who isn't even a Pennsylvanian and Mastriano...who was socially a Far-Right extremist by the standards of thirty years ago. In what world do these people win in a net moderate state? They don't. But, again, Evangelicals are idiots.
Trump will dominate in the Primary because his supporters simply don't understand, or are willing to disregard, the implications that has in the General Election. Even if Trump lost in the Primary, which is highly unlikely, he's enough of an asshole to run as an independent and enough of his idiot supporters are sufficiently loyal that the election would be handed to Democrats on a silver platter by way of the defectors.
In terms of who could win the right states in the General Election---Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, maybe Nikki Haley(?). The problem you have there is now you actually have to get people to turn out in those states and would lose a lot of Trump's voters...many of whom don't have any great loyalty to the party itself. Manchin might have once had a chance, if he switched parties, but now both sides seem to hate him. That comes as no surprise to me as Manchin is probably the most centrist of all the Senators. We seem to only operate in extremes now. Thanks, Trump.
Anyway, it simply cannot be a social conservative unless he makes it a point to say that he would absolutely not take Federal action on those issues. He'll be lying, of course, but maybe he can say it convincingly enough.
I honestly think Paul Ryan would be the best theoretical nominee. He's good-looking; he speaks well; he's from a battleground state; he's an economic policy wonk...which, in theory, is one of TWO general topics where Conservatives might actually have a national advantage over Democrats. I honestly think he'd beat Biden. I think Ryan could maybe even get a plurality...not that it matters....states matter.
Instead, Republican voters will nominate Trump, who would lose to a toilet seat, at this point. Bernie Sanders would mop the floor with Trump right now. Actually, that would be an even better matchup than the rematch would. Trump is going to lose to Biden, again, (unless one or the other dies between now and then) and Trump's supporters are going to claim the election was rigged/stolen, again, and we'll get to listen to those bitches moan and scream for another two years.
Or, the Republican voters could actually do something that effectuates winning. But, they won't. I'm pretty sure they actively hate winning.
You also don't have to worry about Trump's supporters in the already deeply red states. Those states are so red that you don't actually need any of his most fervent supporters to even show up if Trump is not the candidate. That's honestly another aspect that makes being blatantly Far Right on social issues such a dumbass thing to do (DeSantis); the Evangelical mouth-breathers will vote for literally any Republican over literally any Democrat in the dark. There's no reason to go out of your way to appeal to people who you are at no risk of losing anyway.
"Trump can win the primary but he can't win the general." And "Trump can't win the polls." All bullshit.
Trump got a record for a sitting president, 75 million votes in 2020. Yeah, sure, Biden got 81 million. But if you discount out the Peoples Republics of California and New York, Trump won the popular vote by 1 million.
Trump doesn't have to win the popular vote. He has to win in the electoral college. If just 20,000 votes were changed in 2020 Trump would have won. That's how close the battle ground states like Arizona and Georgia were. There was a ton of ballot harvesting going on in the battleground states.
Now, for ignorant ass libtards that think the republican party is the minority. Here's what the statistics look like:
State Senates
Dems 857
Repubs 1,110
States Houses
Dems 2,426
Repubs 2,947
Repubs lead in governors 26-24
Get this. There are more repubs in the Senate, 49, than Dems, 48. The 3 Independents make the difference. But anyway the repubs are just 2 away from a majority.
Repubs hold the house by 222 to 212.
In 20 states repubs have a supermajority, Dems just 9.
So overall, if you think the republicans are the minority party, guess again. Ballot harvesting won for dems in 2020 and 2022. Republicans need to beat them at their own game.
I've just given you libtards plenty of reason to keep sniveling.
PS: No RINO can win the republican nomination. Don't give me any shit about "Well, then you can't win the general without a RINO." A RINO winning is the same as a DEM winning. Fuck that shit.
I guess that means you're buddy Bitch McConnell is out.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Hey mickey you realize trump still lost if he won Arizona and Georgia right? I know math is not your forte.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I understand your point but no one who is incapable of doing grade 3 math should be calling others ignorant
Also if you wsnt to do mickey revisionist math… trump needed about 42k votes tie in which he would win tie breaker.
For reference Clinton only needed 80k to outright beat trump.
The lesson? The electoral college was designed to give minorities more power in their votes…. That’s right america has affirmative action built into the voting process.