Very disrespectful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Printable View
Very disrespectful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Always nice to have an easy one.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
13-3 +9.7
NBA league pass is free this week.
FYI
I'm glad this Denver game is ending soon.
They were up 21 and it looked like it was over.
Now Denver has been playing like shit for almost a full quarter, and hopefully they can hold a 7-point or more lead long enough to finish this (it's 12 right now).
I better not get PLOPped here.
Lead down to 8.
3 minutes left.
Denver looks horrendous. Can't make a basket, can't run any effective plays, and clueless of defense.
Ridiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yes. Denver looks worse than I've seen any team look in a long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by CharhamRidiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They are just awful right now. Lead down to 4, and suddenly we need to come from behind to win.
Unbelievable.
NBA games are by far the absolute worst games to sweat IMO for reasons like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by CharhamRidiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bottom line is everyone makes a run and a lot of them come at the worst times
This is worse than a run. Denver just quit playing. Now they can't get back into even a slight groove.
Dennis Smith just keeps making layups at will. Dude looks like Allen Iverson all of a sudden.
I've really been victimized by a lot of late collapses with picks which look like almost sure winners.
I feel like I'm running so bad that I'm not even all that excited about Portland being up 25.
Basketball is quite frustrating from a betting perspective that way.
Look at the Warriors/Raptors game on Saturday. The Dubs were up 81-54 at the half and had to scrap all the way to the end to just hold and win the game straight up. And then Toronto hit a meaningless 3 at the buzzer to cover.
And seems to have been a lot of games that have gone that way.
Been happening for decades. It's a big reason I like betting on football primarily. Not that you can control anything in Football but it seems things seem to go the way they should more often and NBA has so many backdoor covers etc... because of pace of the games is so fastQuote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Looking like 2 late collapses on Druff's bets (which I tailed) are likely. I will say I watch a lot of Blazers games because they are late when I have time to watch TV and their scrubs that come in in blowouts really try to score, so that is good at least. It is a bunch of random tall white guys who are decent for scrubs and play hard.
I've never met anyone who can beat baseball over the long run. It's incredibly difficult and random night in night out.
It seems to me NBA can be beat but it almost seems like it's really more of a pshycology play on what group of multi millionaire players are going to show up on a given night.
Even though in NBA we see a lot of backdoor covers in the regular season their is so much information you can use to your advantage when betting compared to other sports. I say regular season because playoffs to me has always felt like a different animal.
We also don't have weather to influence our decisions.
You're more negative than even I am.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
You're underestimating how terrible the Suns are.
-11 bets are always a risk because you get fucked in trash time fairly often, but I still think we have this one. Won't be shocked if we lose though.
Well, you are 20 games above .500 in NBA and I am probably 20 games below .500. So my pessimism normally has been justified unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou're more negative than even I am.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
You're underestimating how terrible the Suns are.
-11 bets are always a risk because you get fucked in trash time fairly often, but I still think we have this one. Won't be shocked if we lose though.
Troy Daniels is horrible mostly G league player, but he can get hot from 3's, and it looks like that is exactly what is going on. Rut Roh.
Pheonix has made 5 open 3s in a row. Cover dead as a duck. They may win the actual game at this point.
And Phoenix is now tightening up the game. I am going to run some numbers. But live bet the losing team ,take points, around half time in blow out games may be the play?Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacNBA games are by far the absolute worst games to sweat IMO for reasons like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Bottom line is everyone makes a run and a lot of them come at the worst times
I used to do this in prior seasons. I would look for a closely-lined game (not one like this) where a team was down 20+ at halftime, and take the other side.Quote:
Originally Posted by CharhamAnd Phoenix is now tightening up the game. I am going to run some numbers. But live bet the losing team ,take points, around half time in blow out games may be the play?Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
Worked for awhile, but stopped winning enough to be +EV in my opinion. I've noticed in recent years that the books have adjusted, and will put up lines to account for the fact that this happens a lot.