The Fed can't bankrupt the country because they don't spend the country's money. Congress does that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Also, the country can never go bankrupt.
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The Fed can't bankrupt the country because they don't spend the country's money. Congress does that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Also, the country can never go bankrupt.
I guess people have started getting $1200 checks. Should we expect a market boost Monday from this?
How are these Billionaire hedge fund managers going to survive?
I hope most of them get wiped out.
Especially, Steven Cohen who is the hedge fund manager that the TV show "Billions" is based on.
In 2013, the Cohen-founded S.A.C. Capital Advisors pleaded guilty to insider trading and agreed to pay $1.8 billion in fines in one of the biggest criminal cases against a hedge fund. Steven Cohen still has a net worth of about $14 Billion and he is a major asshole.
This time I hope he goes broke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAt7Rg1u2l8
if you print enough dollars, the value of the dollar deflates versus other currencies/goods/standards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThe Fed can't bankrupt the country because they don't spend the country's money. Congress does that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Also, the country can never go bankrupt.
if it suddenly takes 1200 jesusbucks to buy a gallon of gas, we are essentially bankrupt.
So why shouldn't we be investing in gold if we feel this is a high likelihood of happening?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineif you print enough dollars, the value of the dollar deflates versus other currencies/goods/standards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
if it suddenly takes 1200 jesusbucks to buy a gallon of gas, we are essentially bankrupt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardSo why shouldn't we be investing in gold if we feel this is a high likelihood of happening?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Luckily for us, not everyone shares the same grim outlook like Tine and San.
"If you print enough dollars" that's true. But the Fed is maybe printing a few trillion. And the Fed will only print as much as there is a demand for. And by demand I mean "willing to lock up money for the term of a Treasury bond" plus "enough to backstop troubled assets." They're not going to print more than it's useful to print.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineif you print enough dollars, the value of the dollar deflates versus other currencies/goods/standards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
if it suddenly takes 1200 jesusbucks to buy a gallon of gas, we are essentially bankrupt.
US dollars are the world's reserve currency and holding one is holding a bit of the lifeblood of the US economy and the whole world's economy. Their safety and value is a reflection of the fact that the US is the most stable, freest and powerful place in the world to do business. If anything will undo the dollar it's damage to the system, not the printing of more dollars. Any medium of exchange depends on trust in the system and the people participating in it. If the system breaks down it doesn't matter if you have gold, USD, Bitcoin, oil or rare wines, what you are holding will be worthless.
Those extra dollars will eventually slowly fall back out of the system when they are no longer needed to prop up troubled assets. The dollars from the QEs during the 2008-09 crisis mostly did. Those QEs did not result in significant inflation. The money supply has to be able to expand and contract with the requirements of the economic circumstances of the time. Without that there is no modern economy. Fortunately, the Fed is still run by grown-ups.
First, because that is not going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardSo why shouldn't we be investing in gold if we feel this is a high likelihood of happening?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Second, because gold is stupid. For a medium of exchange to work, it has to be in sufficient supply, easily transferable and widely accepted. Gold is none of these things. Hold whatever asset you want, if the trust in the system and its participants breaks down, it will be worthless.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I was stunned to learn that yesterday in my town there 1000 cars lined up to get free food placed in your trunk by the National Guard. 1000 cars. I am not in the country, but hardly a city of any import. schools feed our kids year round. the giveaways never end. we are so fucked when the music stops.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactor
I watched this interview live yesterday and it was tremendous. The interviewee is not Steven Cohen but instead a venture capitalist who got his start w/ Google or FB. Anyway, this guy is telling it like it is and the interviewer is at times taken back. It goes much longer than the 3 minutes that X posted so if you are interested go to YouTube/CNBC and watch it in full. Again, it will be well worth your time if you are interested in a contrarian view about what is happening by someone in the business.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineif you print enough dollars, the value of the dollar deflates versus other currencies/goods/standards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
if it suddenly takes 1200 jesusbucks to buy a gallon of gas, we are essentially bankrupt.
So everything you say here is correct. “Everything being equal” if you have a baseline economy and then add extra currency to it you will get inflation. It’s a fairly simple concept.
What isn’t so simple to explain is “everything isn’t equal”. Yes both the Fed on the monetary side and the government on the fiscal side have added trillions of widgets of currency to the economy. I don’t have a calculator but it’s probably around 5 Trillion, maybe more. I did a back of the napkin calculation a few weeks back at the market bottom and came up with 17T of market cap evaporation in the three major stock indexes. That doesn’t account for real estate or intangeable assets or your fathers 56 Mantle. Trillions of widgets of value went “poof”.
Government added 5T, economy lost 20T plus.
Not exactly a fertile ground for inflation.
This too.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
So everything you say here is correct. “Everything being equal” if you have a baseline economy and then add extra currency to it you will get inflation. It’s a fairly simple concept.
What isn’t so simple to explain is “everything isn’t equal”. Yes both the Fed on the monetary side and the government on the fiscal side have added trillions of widgets of currency to the economy. I don’t have a calculator but it’s probably around 5 Trillion, maybe more. I did a back of the napkin calculation a few weeks back at the market bottom and came up with 17T of market cap evaporation in the three major stock indexes. That doesn’t account for real estate or intangeable assets or your fathers 56 Mantle. Trillions of widgets of value went “poof”.
Government added 5T, economy lost 20T plus.
Not exactly a fertile ground for inflation.
Yup. And additional point is that every currency has been doing this for a while. Relative to each other their value hasn't changed significantly. Running theme is that no one is seeing hyperinflation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThis too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
also how quaint does the title of the show Billions sound these days
Don’t find this scary at all, whenever stuff is free people come out of the woodwork. When hurricane harvey hit a lot of people would go get the free water and free meals without needed them...got seen on social media and got fired...ha.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I was stunned to learn that yesterday in my town there 1000 cars lined up to get free food placed in your trunk by the National Guard. 1000 cars. I am not in the country, but hardly a city of any import. schools feed our kids year round. the giveaways never end. we are so fucked when the music stops.
I'm sorry Sonatine, but I'm leaving you for Walter SobchakQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThe Fed can't bankrupt the country because they don't spend the country's money. Congress does that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Also, the country can never go bankrupt.
Did this Portuguese nigga say quaint
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
So everything you say here is correct. “Everything being equal” if you have a baseline economy and then add extra currency to it you will get inflation. It’s a fairly simple concept.
What isn’t so simple to explain is “everything isn’t equal”. Yes both the Fed on the monetary side and the government on the fiscal side have added trillions of widgets of currency to the economy. I don’t have a calculator but it’s probably around 5 Trillion, maybe more. I did a back of the napkin calculation a few weeks back at the market bottom and came up with 17T of market cap evaporation in the three major stock indexes. That doesn’t account for real estate or intangeable assets or your fathers 56 Mantle. Trillions of widgets of value went “poof”.
Government added 5T, economy lost 20T plus.
Not exactly a fertile ground for inflation.
I am self aware enough to see of the humor of us PFA members discussing economics.
Discussing economics is like discussing music so everyone is entitled to an opinion.
That said and it’s late and I am just typing stream of consciousness..... perhaps this is a parlor game. Here we go.
Trading neither creates wealth nor destroys it.
Ponder this:
Market cap is # shares x share price
Tesla issued around 10 million shares @ $17 during the IPO on June 29 2010. Market cap was $170 million. No matter what ever happens to Tesla’s price that’s all the money they will ever have gotten for those shares.
If on June 30 2010 me and Sonatine trade a share of TSLA at $20 the market cap is now said to be $200 million. The other 9,999,999 shares DID NOT TRADE. One share allegedly created a lot of wealth.
When we talk about evaporating wealth we must tread lightly.
If Sonatine paid me $1000 for Tesla in January and in April it trades @ $500..... well, I still have Sonatine’s $1000.
Money is not wealth
I can’t deal with this now. It’s important obv.
You can argue:
We were in an asset (stonks) bubble January 2020. The incorrect valuation was reset to something one might argue is more correct.
So Daly’s napkin has stimulus propping up previous stimulus that was market corrected in March.
The inflation was in one asset class (the 1%). This time we are doing Fiscal stimulus into the hands of the general population
Just messing around .... I am only talking stonks — not real estate and especially bonds much less collector cars and art
Tune back in tomorrow
Oops
Reading is fundamental.
The topic was inflation.
No inflation now cause there is a demand shock. GDP is gonna be kaka for a good while.
Daly’s kids will see inflation cause that is how .gov gets out of debt by design. They inflate there way out.
Oh, that’s a fucking mortal lock.
gold in vancouver is easy to get and easy to sell... https://www.vbce.caQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakFirst, because that is not going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Second, because gold is stupid. For a medium of exchange to work, it has to be in sufficient supply, easily transferable and widely accepted. Gold is none of these things. Hold whatever asset you want, if the trust in the system and its participants breaks down, it will be worthless.
A few reasons to get gold If it is available, gold is better in bullion instead of paper as there is a high chance that there is not enough gold to reconcile the paper.... that being said it has always been a good very long term investment historically, rarly loses a lot of value even in the worst of times such as now.
In Canada at least there is NO TAXES on bullion profits.
It is safer than some volatile currency at the moment IMO
its never wrong to have 5 or 10 oz of gold in the safe deposit box.
the whole libertarian GoLd iN TiMEs oF cRIsIS schtick cost a lot of idiots money in the last few months but that aint my business.
:tea
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Gold used to be a lock in times like this. But it didn't find its usual place in 08-10, so it may not this time. The old view that if everything goes to hell you want to have gold in hand no longer works though. What are you going to do, take your piece to the shopkeeper and shave off a few ounces to pay for your goods? Yeah, right. You will get murdered either on the way to the store or on the way home if we reach that point.
The music continues, until it doesn't. But for now we remain best in class. Hence our ability to keep the music playing without much if any consequence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Gold used to be a lock in times like this. But it didn't find its usual place in 08-10, so it may not this time. The old view that if everything goes to hell you want to have gold in hand no longer works though. What are you going to do, take your piece to the shopkeeper and shave off a few ounces to pay for your goods? Yeah, right. You will get murdered either on the way to the store or on the way home if we reach that point.
The music continues, until it doesn't. But for now we remain best in class. Hence our ability to keep the music playing without much if any consequence.
yeah it just didnt scale as predicted this time. i have enough on my plate without getting obsessive about why but if anyone wants to one-liner it for me, im interested.
Four months ago:
Fed analysis warns of ‘economic ruin’ when governments print money to pay off debt
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/25/fed-...s-adopted.html
oh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
good find. lol at saying what you mean. the current spending has already dwarfed 08-10 which was at the time unprecedented. Good times.
I guess if your a quick buck kind of person than maybe gold is not a good idea, if you can handle sitting on it for 5 or 10 years (kids college fund) you won't loose money and tax free profit. please explain how some one can lose money doing this.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Gold used to be a lock in times like this. But it didn't find its usual place in 08-10, so it may not this time. The old view that if everything goes to hell you want to have gold in hand no longer works though. What are you going to do, take your piece to the shopkeeper and shave off a few ounces to pay for your goods? Yeah, right. You will get murdered either on the way to the store or on the way home if we reach that point.
The music continues, until it doesn't. But for now we remain best in class. Hence our ability to keep the music playing without much if any consequence.
bought 40 oz of gold back in 1998... lucky I didn't have to get my gold cheese grater out to get some shoes. or pay for daughters braces, American girl doll. Still sitting in safe today, good investment?
scary graph eh?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Cost a lot of people money since 2011 of you let a devils advocte pick the date of comparison. Gold with its recent run up is flat to 2011. The S&P has trippled. If you savoy enough to pick one asset class you savoy enough to pick a stock. Apple is up 500%. Amazon 1800%.
If gold was a proxy for money printing it would be up huge. Problem is it’s a proxy for inflation: gas is free. People can’t afford milk or rent. It’s a replay of 2008 all over again - it’s not inflation it’s deflation.
That’s not to say after the pump is primed we aren’t going to have a inflation problem on the other side of this, but now is not an inflation problem.
Now all the above being said - gold has its place in a portfolio. Much like you should add bonds to your portfolio when you get closer to retirement you should do the same with Gold as a safe alternative for a massive inflation spike. The best way I’ve ever heard someone explain gold is that it’s not an investment it’s a insurance policy.
https://forbearancereport.com
Decent resource here if you have questions on mortgage options burning this shit show.
i feel vaguely guilty even responding because the only lens i view macro economics through is 'how can i make money this week', so long term concepts like portfolios and investments are just too abstract for me (thanks, ADD).
but how did gold do as a shelter asset in 2008 compared to now? i have no idea btw, im asking.
Intermission
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRtd8ArvH_s
Walt Disney World employees are taking it on the chin, hard -- the theme park is about to furlough 43,000 workers as it remains closed due to the coronavirus.
It's okay though right? The workers will get $1500 a month from the government and the Fed printer will keep Disney stock afloat.
Idk about the stock but they’re probably going to make closer to 3k or over a month. $600*4+ whatever their state unemployment gives them. It’s Florida so probably low.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Like $200 week plus the $2400 a month from feds.
If the Fed buys questionable junk bonds in the open market and hands out cash that money will probably find it’s way into stonksQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
However, the potential exists that the Fed may buy equities if things get dire. There is conversation occurring around this idea.
That hottie Janet Yellen:
The larger issue or concept is that if folks get their 401k destroyed or other stock holding get thrashed they will be so nervous and lack the confidence to spend and that would make a recovery very difficult. Gotta save the stock market so confidence in the economy remains.Quote:
“It would be a substantial change to give the Federal Reserve the ability to buy stock,” Yellen told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on “Squawk on the Street.” “I frankly don’t think it’s necessary at this point. I think intervention to support the credit markets is more important, but longer term it wouldn’t be a bad thing for Congress to reconsider the powers that the Fed has with respect to assets it can own.”
Distortion layered on distortion in the markets. Gamble carefully cause its a different game.
“The game the same.... it just got more fierce”Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW12BT9pYEw
read someone (burry?) put together a compelling case that the reasons why the 2008 crash took 3 years to totally recover from are the same reasons the 2020 crash will take 7 years to recover from.
sobering shit.
It seems we are all pretty confident the market is going to tank again. Unless you are confident there is still gains to be made and you can target when to exit effectively, any reason not to just take everything out of the market now and wait?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
This is just an iteration of trickle down economics.
wow you have great hindsight you must be a trillion air. some one so "savoy" must have bought BITCOIN @ $11 and sold when it hit $20k....too LOL instead of spending 6 years predicting its ultimate demise. still waiting for this to happen. lot of dumb fucks hated Micon so much it costed them millions.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Cost a lot of people money since 2011 of you let a devils advocte pick the date of comparison. Gold with its recent run up is flat to 2011. The S&P has trippled. If you savoy enough to pick one asset class you savoy enough to pick a stock. Apple is up 500%. Amazon 1800%.
If gold was a proxy for money printing it would be up huge. Problem is it’s a proxy for inflation: gas is free. People can’t afford milk or rent. It’s a replay of 2008 all over again - it’s not inflation it’s deflation.
That’s not to say after the pump is primed we aren’t going to have a inflation problem on the other side of this, but now is not an inflation problem.
Now all the above being said - gold has its place in a portfolio. Much like you should add bonds to your portfolio when you get closer to retirement you should do the same with Gold as a safe alternative for a massive inflation spike. The best way I’ve ever heard someone explain gold is that it’s not an investment it’s a insurance policy.
its easy to talk shit and act like a financal genius when you know all the answers and outcomes. Would love to hear your next prediction of x 500%-1800% profit ??
Ill predict gold will be close to $4,5 k per oz with in 8 years.
gold being a good investment when you get close to retirement is completely wrong and exactly the opposite. gold has always been a very long term investment and individuals with moderate finances who speculate gold on day to day prices are certainly doing it wrong.
lol #bigshots
hey can anyone remember a single economy in the history of civilization that has ever successfully stopped QE once it started?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Von Struckerwow you have great hindsight you must be a trillion air. some one so "savoy" must have bought BITCOIN @ $11 and sold when it hit $20k....too LOL instead of spending 6 years predicting its ultimate demise. still waiting for this to happen. lot of dumb fucks hated Micon so much it costed them millions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
its easy to talk shit and act like a financal genius when you know all the answers and outcomes. Would love to hear your next prediction of x 500%-1800% profit ??
Ill predict gold will be close to $4,5 k per oz with in 8 years.
gold being a good investment when you get close to retirement is completely wrong and exactly the opposite. gold has always been a very long term investment and individuals with moderate finances who speculate gold on day to day prices are certainly doing it wrong.
lol #bigshots
Jesus. Someone missed the point entirely.