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-110 is VERY marginal. I think a tiny bit positive, but very close to 0 EV. That's why I quit teasers years ago. Can't find any real +EV prices anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
But yeah, if someone is still doing teasers these days, they're best off doing Wong 6-pointers at -110.
From what I understand it isn't even clear whether Wong teasers were ever actually +EV. They ran really good for awhile in the early 2000s, and people were definitely making good money with them, to the point where many books discontinued them or raised the juice, but in recent years they haven't been winning at nearly the same clip. The fact there is so few NFL football games/year and so few Wong teaser games/week on average makes the sample size so small it is just hard to tell.
I'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -12.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Boston College not covering was brutal. They were literally in position to win the game or lose by 3 (and push) for the entire game until the very end when they turned it over and Iowa got a TD and that was that.
Az/Pur game looks like it should go over, but it is starting to slow down so getting a little nervous.
Texas/Mizzou dunno.
My understanding is that it is any bet that crosses the 3 AND 7, either as favorite going down or underdog going up. I don't think a 12.5 teasing below 7 counts as a Wong.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisI'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -13.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Wow. Between the players dropping passes, kickers missing kicks, and refs doing shady stuff with spotting the ball and not calling penalties, getting very nervous about this Purdue game. Its like everyone decided at once to keep the score down.
Purdue was up 31-14 at halftime and has been hodoring around the whole 2nd half and Az finally takes a 35-31 lead with 3 minutes left in the game and now all of a sudden they are trying, but you are completely out of sync from not trying for 25 minutes.
Fuck you Purdue for costing me $$ by not even trying to score all 2nd half.
Edit: Got lucky, Purdue scored a TD on basically a Hail Mary.
Good thing Draymond got 8 boards through 3 quarters as he is almost certainly not playing at all in the 4th. Did not have this one being a 20+ point game going into the 4th.
Schroder the only loss and by 1 point (and after he had 4 at the half). Oh well.
7-1 +5.85
Lakers are like the worst team at closing out games.
If it's a close game in the 4th, you know they are going to choke.
2-2 day yesterday, and of course the two picks I said were best were the two that lost.
91-58-2 is now my record through 151 picks.
First off, yes, Wong teasers were very +EV provided that you were getting +100 on 2-teamers, +180 on 3-teamers, and +300 on 4-teamers.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisI'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -12.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Nowadays the only semi-viable line you can find is that -110 on 2-teamers, and that's VERY marginal.
There only only 6 lines which qualify as Wong teasers. They are:
-8.5
-8
-7.5
+1.5
+2
+2.5
That's it. Any other line should not be teased.
UGA -2.5...very confused...chubb-michel-swift (think that's their 3rd RBs name) and a top 5 D...I know you can argue that top 5 D thing since UGA didn't play anybody close to good on offense outside of AUB and MIZZ...fromms a frosh and I know they don't ask him to do shit and if they get down they may be fucked...I just don't see OU stopping that RB core, which really makes me want to take OU since this seems like such a slam dunk on UGAs end...need somebody to talk me outta this one...
Took Ok St -6.5.
After 1 V Tech drive I really regret it. Ok St has no clue how to defend the option game right now. Every play is 10+ yards.
Josh Jackson took a pretty big hit on a slide. Not gonna lie, I was hoping they were gonna take him out for concussion testing, but looks like he is ok. He is a big boy.
V Tech has no converted two 3rd and 10s this game. I am not sure I like Ok St. to win this game at this point, forget covering. Maybe I will make a live V Tech ML bet, and give myself a big fat 6.5 point polish middle.
Live bet V Tech -140
LOL. As soon as I live bet V Tech fumbles and loses it on the 1 inch line. Unreal. Probably a 90% chance I hit my Polish middle now.
I think I may have actually cursed V Tech with my live bet.
NBA, starting in about 40 min:
Orlando +4
One more word about Wong teasers.
Daly noted that games with lower totals are also better for Wong teasers (though you still need to stick to the 6 magic numbers I posted earlier).
That is 100% true.
Additionally, I feel you're better off staying away from backing terrible teams which tend to get blown out often.
My theory is that teasers most benefit teams which tend to stick much closer to the line. Teams which are all over the place (doing surprisingly well at times but then also getting blown out often) are of less value. This is because the teaser only gives you 6 points, so if it's a team which has a habit of getting blown out by 20 when the line is +2.5, they're not as good to tease.
Note that Daly disagrees with the above "don't tease awful teams" theory, but in my personal anecdotal experience doing teasers in the 2000s and early 2010s, those teams often screwed me, and my results improved a lot once I started refusing to tease them.
Stanford +3. Unless it is against USC, Stanford just seems to find a way to win these games most of the time, and even against USC they backdoor covered in the Championship game.
Mich St -2.
Well, looks like Orlando is going to win
:outright
Funny I was going to fire at least some of my bet on the +155 moneyline, because I really thought they were either winning outright or losing by more than 4, but I talked myself out of it because they are such a shitty team that I could totally see them blowing a lead at the end and losing by 1-3 points in the final minute.
Anyway, I went through different emotions. When they took an early 10 point lead, I regretted not doing a ML bet, but then when they fell behind in late 2Q, I said to myself, "See? I might indeed need those 4 points. Good thing I just did the +4."
Now they're up 13 in the 4th and obv I wish I bet the moneyline again.
But I'll take the 1-0 day just the same.
Hopefully some of you got in on this, as I only posted it 40 minutes in advance.
Look at the shitshow in Boston. Rockets are crushing them 46-24 WITHOUT Paul and Capela. Can you believe this? I mean, yeah there's no Brown, but this team has really turned to trash pretty quickly.
But Kyrie doesn't need Lebron. LOL
I sheeped you again, but didn't say anything cause didn't want to worry you. I am also debating going Philly EV in the night game (with no Lilliard)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff