Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
The Hunter Biden stuff isn't going to hurt Biden much in the primary. Most Democrats dismiss it as right wing conspiracy nonsense (even though it does appear that something shady occurred.)
It might hurt Biden in the general election if Trump hammers it enough. Lord knows that Trump is excellent at trolling other candidates to the point where his rhetoric about them gets etched in people's minds. Before Trump, did you ever think of Jeb Bush as "low energy"? I bet you think of him that way now!
It's so surreal to see the establishment candidate with the best polling numbers being cast as the big underdog.
Biden has two huge strengths:
1) He has an established following of people who already know his faults and still like him anyway, so it will be tough to change people's minds
2) He is the only major candidate with good black support
He's not a lock by any means, but I was shocked that I got him at +500 not long ago, and I'm shocked that so many people honestly believe Mayor Pete has a better chance to be the nominee than him.
Right now there are only two realistic candidates with a good chance to win the primary -- Biden and Warren. Bernie and Mayor Pete have an outside shot, but it's probably not happening for either one. Every other candidate has never caught on, or has already crashed and burned.
This is nothing like 2008, when an upstart Obama came out of nowhere to pass Hillary and beat her. There is no Obama equivalent here.
This is nothing like 2016, when Trump shocked the Republican establishment by crushing all of the Republican frontrunners. In that case, Trump was leading the whole way, and nobody was willing to accept that his support wouldn't die down.
I think Biden is the most likely winner at this point.