Been all downhill for them since The Big Bang Theory got canceled.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
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Been all downhill for them since The Big Bang Theory got canceled.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
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Nobody loves Michael Lewis more than me so I appreciate the reference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The fact is he already did the Corona book. “The Fifth Risk” was his indictment of the Trump presidency. Read that last paragraph taken from an interview with Lewis in December of last year.
Risk assessment
Tim AdamsSat 14 Mar 2020 12.00 EDT
Reflections on a remarkable prediction, a great English poet and a sporting reprieve
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...th-aston-villa
Quote:
The “fifth risk” was the attack from populist politicians on the idea of good government – bullying and firing independent experts and undermining the deep institutional knowledge of civil servants – in their crowd-pleasing efforts to “dismantle bureaucracy”. Or, in Lewis’s terms, to carelessly destroy “what you never learn that might have saved you”.
I spoke to Lewis in December and wondered if he could imagine anything that might challenge that drift in our politics, that might make us desire leaders with a respect for independent expertise within robust public institutions.
“For people to suddenly start to value what good government does,” Lewis said, “I think there will have to be something that threatens a lot of people at once. The problem with a wildfire in California, or a hurricane in Florida, is that for most people it is happening to someone else. I think a pandemic might do it, something that could affect millions of people indiscriminately and from which you could not insulate yourself even if you were rich.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Lee Buchheit:
"In the 21st century, no country borrows money with the expectation that it will ever repay the full sum. They simply assume that when their liabilities come due they will borrow from someone else to pay the maturing debts. This assumption has permitted countries, large and small, to carry debt loads that in a quainter era would have been thought wildly unsustainable. But this notion is an illusion. Covid-19 may expose how fragile it is. The combination of economic downturns, capital flights, commodity price collapses, political instability resulting from the social consequences of the epidemic and a pervasive “risk off” sentiment in the markets may in the coming months make it difficult or impossible for some countries to refinance their debts — what the economists call a sudden stop. Drawing down reserves could in some cases postpone a default, but those reserves may be needed for more pressing humanitarian purposes. Once defaults begin, bondholders will be entitled to commence legal enforcement measures, making a sovereign debt crisis irreversible even if the global economy recovers. The vast majority of creditors can be expected to show restraint in light of the coronavirus crisis. The danger lies in the small minority of creditors who pride themselves on being more aggressive and litigious than their more docile peers. For stricken countries unable to keep servicing their debts - because the bond market has been shut off or because all available resources must be directed to ameliorate the crisis - this means avoiding a situation where their debts are rendered permanently unmanageable as a result of accelerations and legal enforcement by small groups of creditors." (via ftalphaville.com)
The widgets that governments use to keep score are a figment of our collective imaginations and the entire world is in on it.
The “right thing” to do Back in 2008 was to hit the reset button globally. This country, believe it or not, came closer to doing the “right thing” then most people think. The rest of the world including our European allies and China stepped in and basically begged us not to do it....... and the new normal was born. We will keep it all going for as long as we can. If the world must the Fed/ECB/CBC will print and digitally create as much liquidity as we need to keep the structure going.
Eventually there will need to be a reset - but it probably (hopefully) won’t be anytime soon. The entire world is in on it.
I’m done with Wynn but they are exactly the same now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Lol, the cruise companies pretty much gonna need to reflag to USA
That can really never happen.
Get a life jacket
I've heard the same kind of nonsense from individuals that have ties to Soviet era Communism or those that glorify that type of lifestyle.
Makes me want to vomit.
Emini rally monkey
Not being able to wake up and buy CCL at a discount and sell it by 10:30 and pick up 10K is kind of a drag.
So if I had to put my money in the market today and I had to double it in 1-2 years or I’d lose a limb I think I’m going with CCL and MGM.
My take on CCL is well documented.
MGM is trading at such a huge discount to historical price it’s absurd. They have a pile of cash on hand and can fund operations for a long time with no money coming in. They have big real estate holdings to sell off or collateralize a loan (so no equity raise needed)
I like em both a lot.
Who didn’t see this coming?
The era of quarter million dollar software headshots is slamming shut. My phone is blowing up with stories of private equity pulling out of NYC.
Sad shit.
OSA, i here stories of people already leaving Brooklyn leases. Apts empty. Daughter already called too. No answer.
Pack up the laptop and bolt to some beach. Her outfit was just about to move into a bigger space. Absolutely no room. That got nuked. Fully remote. No choice.
It’s over
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Look I played the casino bounce too. MGM will bounce but my core casino thesis is rock solid & supported by pre-crash data.
You WILL make money but you are NOT making a 100% retracement. That’s fact
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I ain't going anywhere. I don't know how this will work, but I'm going to have a convo with my property management soon hoping my guarantor doesnt have to get involved cause then I'll fold and just pay.
My 2 roommates who moved back with parents I think are going to be paying April rent which is interesting since one hasnt been here in a week and the other for 2 weeks. Hope they plan on continue splitting utilities as well.
I cant imagine they would be able to find anyone at this price point anyway right? I mean who is moving NOW?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Jesus, I got in front of the Bill signing and only got 100 points.
Brutal game.
Sanlmar: Prices are going to collapse in the nicer areas.
I'm being told salary cut for entire year and working remote most likely for the entire year since we aren't going back to WeWork after the shit they pulled. Remote saves ton of money on rent too.
T minus 60 minutes till Fed dump?
Kids are letting me in on their group chat.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Me, the old guy, “you’re gonna have a bad reference if you bolt from your lease”
Kids, “they don’t check anymore, NYC does have a black list”.
Other kid, “they don’t do the black list anymore”
The story of my daughters startup literally planning to move to bigger office building tomorrow. Cancelled.
Rental Real estate in nicer areas so fucked.
The real estate scene is gonna get nuked.
Does this mean WeWork's IPO is going to be postponed again?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarKids are letting me in on their group chat.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Me, the old guy, “you’re gonna have a bad reference if you bolt from your lease”
Kids, “they don’t check anymore, NYC does have a black list”.
Other kid, “they don’t do the black list anymore”
The story of my daughters startup literally planning to move to bigger office building tomorrow. Cancelled.
Rental Real estate in nicer areas so fucked.
The real estate scene is gonna get nuked.
I honestly can’t do this anymore. My nerves are shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Don’t risk unless you have a solid feel. Trying to recover losses is hard just like any gambling game.
I have no frigging idea today. The dice are loaded. I just don’t know how.
they finna do my puts dirty yall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakDoes this mean WeWork's IPO is going to be postponed again?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
They didnt close the building we were in even after someone tested positive for it on our floor. It wasnt until all floors had people with Corona that they took action. Supposedly they tried paying workers 100 bucks to come in to sanitize the place even after Cuomo's order to shut all biz.
They are so fucked and no one is paying their rent. Softbank reniged on their offer as well.
Finito la comedia.
Is JDST gonna continue like this next week? Crazy to see its graph go from $34 dollars to $2 in just 2 weeks
They are gonna run it into the close. Dollar tells me so.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
There are no sellers.
E-mini rally.
We will see
So nonsensical I’ll admit
Anyone else believe this trend line from todays bottom is too smooth, i.e. never veers more than the same amount from the path chosen from whoever (treasury's Steve Mnuchin on behalf of Trump et. al. of course) is driving the market for a tiny loss for today?!Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThey are gonna run it into the close. Dollar tells me so.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
There are no sellers.
E-mini rally.
We will see
So nonsensical I’ll admit
I mean, come on fakers, you can do a better job than that...
Bigger picture case for the SPYQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
.618 retracement of entire SPY move is 295
ABC up is also 295
Approx Feb 28 level
End of month rebalancing and window dressing.
Alternate universe shit but these are the Fed play money tables.
So fucked up.
That is soooo creepy. This seems to imply there's gonna be big defaults and banks not even getting 100% of their equity back. Yikes.Quote:
It's probably a good asset to own though at that price.
Bonds took off.... no idea why
SPY must die then.
Tine gonna take off his mask to smoke a cigarQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I coulda used that money to replace the television I’m gonna smash when Trump takes his victory lap at 4pm
He honestly can't get any uglier hes Ohio ugly
Already debated smashing tv + computer + laptop + phone + tablet and living off the grid.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTine gonna take off his mask to smoke a cigarQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I coulda used that money to replace the television I’m gonna smash when Trump takes his victory lap at 4pm
Did anyone already play the Fed game?
https://thefed.app/apply
Very lol.
Game is HOFQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogAlready debated smashing tv + computer + laptop + phone + tablet and living off the grid.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Did anyone already play the Fed game?
https://thefed.app/apply
Very lol.
I am a finance noob, but love me a good gambool.
If I think this is a fake surge and we are going to bottom out again, how do I go about betting this? I don't mind gamboling it up a little and wouldn't mind a high-risk high-reward option if such a thing were possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Buying SPXU...seems like an easy way to go. I am no expert however.
feel the same way really looked hard at ccl,ncl. we will see maybe next week ill get a few shares.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I did get su tsx ~15.50 cad, uso @4.51, and acb at lol .81 tried to buy ac tsx for under 17 didn't happen maybe next week for this too.
sit and wait see what happens total invested so far around 10k cad again this is just for fun. I rarely do any of this with out advise from friends in the game. althoughI was told to buy uso for a long term investment.
NCL & CCL are objects of fascination with the public. It’s the well publicized face of virus. The devastation is complete. It’s easy to understand.
It hasn’t been my thing yet.
People slow down for auto accidents too.
Ships are like recession era meme. Meme works (for a while).
What happens if everyone is on the same side of a boat though?
I just don’t see these outfits flying American flags. You gotta explain that to me
CCL and NCL (as well as airline, hotel and casino) stocks can be two things at the same time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
1. A vehicle to trade the volatility of the corona market.
2. A medium term hold for a double within 1-2 years assuming the world doesn’t end
I really think by January of 2022 we will look back at this and remember how bad we were shitting our collective pants and wished we would have gone all in on these corona stocks similar to what people said in 2011 after banks tripled.
But at the same time half of NY might drop dead and these stocks could go down 50-75% by July. There will be some big swings in these spaces for a while. Everyone won’t be on one side of the boat at this point.
Four dead on Carnival-owned cruise ship amid new coronavirus outbreak aboard
PUBLISHED FRI, MAR 27 20202:35 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Can you believe ships were still running?
No words
Guys, another anxious and confusing week of the market is about to begin soon.
Who is ready to gambooooooooll
Limit down to start of Monday? Who knows.
Action action lets gooooo