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Cars are a commodity not technology. Apple doing cars makes no sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Is Apple gonna have a financing arm like GE did in the old Jack Welch days? GE was a finance company in actuality and it was genius. That is the only notion that is remotely attractive given their cash. Wrong time for auto financing as you well know.
I admit I have never spent any time on Apple and cars cause I’ve considered it wasted time.
Mercedes Benz PE is a 5
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarCars are a commodity not technology. Apple doing cars makes no sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Is Apple gonna have a financing arm like GE did in the old Jack Welch days? GE was a finance company in actuality and it was genius. That is the only notion that is remotely attractive given their cash. Wrong time for auto financing as you well know.
I admit I have never spent any time on Apple and cars cause I’ve considered it wasted time.
Mercedes Benz PE is a 5
i think the lesson elon taught the auto industry is that you can put together a reasonably priced car that looks freaky as shit and pushes a ton of boundaries, if you have engineers, fabrication facilities, and a cult of affluent consumers.
i mean... [ points at apple ]
speaking of which i really want a mercedes EQS.
https://www.mbusa.com/content/dam/mb...ch_Hero-XL.jpg
....*bites knuckle*
i had a dream about what good cars mercedes were the other night so ive been kinda obsessing.
Reasonably priced if you overlook the fact that any Tesla recently financed is underwater. Now there is added new sales discounting pressureQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
i think the lesson elon taught the auto industry is that you can put together a reasonably priced car that looks freaky as shit and pushes a ton of boundaries, if you have engineers, fabrication facilities, and a cult of affluent consumers.
i mean... [ points at apple ]
speaking of which i really want a mercedes EQS.
The build quality is junior achievement.
How about freshening up styling … like ever. If I buy a crispy new Tesla I don’t want it to look exactly like a 4 year old model. I love cars. I can drive down the road and tell you make model and year of pretty much everything I see with a very high accuracy. I cannot play that game with a Tesla.
The interior looks like you are sitting on a milk crate holding a steering wheel. Contrast with your EQS.
I will grant you it was a cult a few years ago. Hot and different.
Nothing better represents the fickleness of the leftist cult than Tesla / Elon Musk.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarReasonably priced if you overlook the fact that any Tesla recently financed is underwater. Now there is added new sales discounting pressureQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The build quality is junior achievement.
How about freshening up styling … like ever. If I buy a crispy new Tesla I don’t want it to look exactly like a 4 year old model. I love cars. I can drive down the road and tell you make model and year of pretty much everything I see with a very high accuracy. I cannot play that game with a Tesla.
The interior looks like you are sitting on a milk crate holding a steering wheel. Contrast with your EQS.
I will grant you it was a cult a few years ago. Hot and different.
yeah im sure this doesnt need to be said but that take is based on the golden years before musk started enforcing andor prison style punishments on his freemont factory workers.
Cathie Wood buying more TSLA & Bitcoin. Even Jim Cramer is turning on her.
Does she have the stones to perform Seppuku?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlQj0okX...pg&name=medium
some interesting datum to digest / a 2023 morning coffee reflection on the sordid state of tesla...
* the cost of used teslas is plummeting. far faster than any other car.
* tesla factories operate at a massive loss if X cars a quarter dont sell, tesla is falling well short of that number, so they are starting to discount the cars. soon they will likely be selling the cars at literal cost.
* teslas are no longer considered 'good' cars.
https://twitter.com/NeillBlomkamp/st...51050168061953
neill blomkamp isnt some random, and hes one of many, many, many voices on sosh saying holy shit my tesla is falling apart. basically since elon turned his freemont factory (rip) into a tent city, the QA complaints have risen more or less exponentially.
* a main character on twitter a few days ago was a dude who convinced his dad to stick his retirement fund into tsla and its gone from 12m to 2m. so much of teslas grassroots support came from people who had this symbiotic fiscal relationship with tesla's stock price. those people are waking up on the other side of the bell curve and realizing that elon getting redpilled could not possibly have happened at a worse time. and it didnt really get him anywhere. democrats consider his brand overwhelmingly toxic but theres been no corresponding shift to overwhelming positivity in right wing circles. if his goal was to simply shift appeal from a saturated market to a fresh one, he has failed utterly.
* there is a new york times article out last week. a writer test drove as many electric cars as he could. the tesla experience simply wasnt competitive anymore. and thats a really interesting marker if youre thinking foreign sales are going to carry tesla to profitability now that domestic sales are waning, because the same companies that are thriving in the face of tesla decline here are going to also thrive in those foreign markets.
theres just no bull thesis for tesla. level 3 driving automation among tesla's competitors is already here, its just stuck in regulation and R&D is languishing from the chip shortage essentially. mercedes, honda, audi, they literally have it rolled into their latest offerings, but its deliberately crippled while they get regulatory hurdles sorted.
and the craziest part of this is that tesla fumbled its solar bag, fumbled its level 3 driving bag, fumbled its brand reputation, fumbled its R&D, fumbled its QA, its whole fucking report card is crimson Fs down the line.
and the people who used to have the weight to demand course correction and sanity can longer do so *because they were all invested heavily in tesla and are now poors*.
i expect a fair number of institutional players will dip a toe based on the '$tsla has reached its floor' thesis and then half wit freaks like cathie wood will pied piper more retail into off the cliff and we will probably see some sort of 10-20% retracement on the way to zero but real fucking talk, its going to be a real crash course in the free market when a company with a 400bn market cap today is scrambling around for bridge loans tomorrow to cover paychecks and power bills.
The NYT writing a hit piece on Tesla right now is the most unsurprising thing ever. If they ever wrote anything positive it would be an absolute shock.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The NYT (along with the rest of the legacy media) are the propaganda arm of the institutions Elon is challenging. That isn't to say their negative propaganda isn't going to be a huge problem for Tesla, because a lot of people still buy into the media driven narratives. But any free thinker should put as much weight into a NYT hit piece on Tesla as they would on positive Rotten Tomato critic review from a Harriet Tubman themed movie.
That is:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
In response to weak demand, Apple cutting Q1 orders for AirPods, Apple Watch, MacBooks - Nikkei
Teslas are a green product. Liberals are all about taxpayer subsidies for a consumer product like electric vehicles.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamThe NYT writing a hit piece on Tesla right now is the most unsurprising thing ever. If they ever wrote anything positive it would be an absolute shock.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The NYT (along with the rest of the legacy media) are the propaganda arm of the institutions Elon is challenging. That isn't to say their negative propaganda isn't going to be a huge problem for Tesla, because a lot of people still buy into the media driven narratives. But any free thinker should put as much weight into a NYT hit piece on Tesla as they would on positive Rotten Tomato critic review from a Harriet Tubman themed movie.
Teslas were also fashion. New, hip, technical and nonsensical. The promoter Musk was selling science fiction and extravagant dreams. Hardly conservative ideals.
It’s hard to pump anything in a recession. Carnival barkers end up on unemployment for a while.
I don’t believe institutions are going to scoop lows in Tesla, Sonatine. Except Cathie Wood. She’s doing her own Mitchellgale trying to save her career with a Hail Mary. In fact, institutions will look to retail to provide the liquidity for their exit.
I’m not here to say institutions are the smart money. I just think your ability to market your fund or advance your career makes TSLA antithetical atm.
The rotation out of high growth tech is still fairly early days. I know TSLA isn’t tech really but you know what I mean.
I moved on from SBF. Musk replaced him as the new face of failure and fraud for a while. I’m even tiring of Musk now. Uninteresting and somewhat obvious to all now just like SBF. The faces of a bygone era.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTeslas are a green product. Liberals are all about taxpayer subsidies for a consumer product like electric vehicles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Teslas were also fashion. New, hip, technical and nonsensical. The promoter Musk was selling science fiction and extravagant dreams. Hardly conservative ideals.
It’s hard to pump anything in a recession. Carnival barkers end up on unemployment for a while.
I don’t believe institutions are going to scoop lows in Tesla, Sonatine. Except Cathie Wood. She’s doing her own Mitchellgale trying to save her career with a Hail Mary. In fact, institutions will look to retail to provide the liquidity for their exit.
I’m not here to say institutions are the smart money. I just think your ability to market your fund or advance your career makes TSLA antithetical atm.
The rotation out of high growth tech is still fairly early days. I know TSLA isn’t tech really but you know what I mean.
I moved on from SBF. Musk replaced him as the new face of failure and fraud for a while. I’m even tiring of Musk now. Uninteresting and somewhat obvious to all now just like SBF. The faces of a bygone era.
i wasnt pitching any legitimate institutional inflow, i was saying a handful of quants are going to flesh out their portfolios in case musk gets fired and it moons basically, and the romanticists and retail and wanna be /wsb stars are going to fomo there way into the slipstream. theres a big difference between that and saying that institutional longs are a thing.
also we still dont talk enough about how the rise of tesla was fueled largely by people buying short and medium term lightyears-out-of-the-money options for pennys, and forcing underwriters to buy shares to cover them as legally required. more than any other dynamic, thats what got tesla to the moon. honestly i dont even know if theres a term for that.
You will know we will be ready for the next bull when the /wsb thread goes dormant. Home day trading will be uncool. The market will have gone to sleep as bond coupons are clipped and dividends are prized over volatility. I’ve lived those days.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
i wasnt pitching any legitimate institutional inflow, i was saying a handful of quants are going to flesh out their portfolios in case musk gets fired and it moons basically, and the romanticists and retail and wanna be /wsb stars are going to fomo there way into the slipstream. theres a big difference between that and saying that institutional longs are a thing.
also we still dont talk enough about how the rise of tesla was fueled largely by people buying short and medium term lightyears-out-of-the-money options for pennys, and forcing underwriters to buy shares to cover them as legally required. more than any other dynamic, thats what got tesla to the moon. honestly i dont even know if theres a term for that.
Will some quant believe TSLA will rip when Musk departs? I really don’t think so. He was the show. The pump and promise. He wasn’t an anchor - he was the reason TSLA mooned. It was a show. Lotta other nonsense mooned but Musk was born for that era.
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy in his back pocket and the gift to sell fantasy. I don’t think the public gets it even still.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
they will bundle it into some sort of synthetic etf and sell swaps on it which they underwrite using leaps on the same synthetic etf that they sold to a wholly owned subsidary etc etc and at the end of the day they will pocket low 8 figures off the commissions and AUM %.
There is one bullish thesis. The fact that you are bearish. Remember your Bitcoin will go donkdown when it was $250?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Tesla has always had poor assembly of cars but the owners don't care. They love the cars.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_BananaThere is one bullish thesis. The fact that you are bearish. Remember your Bitcoin will go donkdown when it was $250?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Tesla has always had poor assembly of cars but the owners don't care. They love the cars.
i have a friend who bought a tesla last year. she took a chisel and tore off the logo. 100% true. people have had it.
and dude read that twitter thread. its literally filled with *other people whose windows have spontaneously shattered*.
if you want to say hey, the bull thesis is you being bearish because youre retail and youre always going to get fucked, that jibes. i have no retort. but the EV market is saturated and musk has torched the brand. imo we are entering salted earth territory.
So you are saying instead of buying Air BnB puts I should be buying Tesla ones?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
i have a friend who bought a tesla last year. she took a chisel and tore off the logo. 100% true. people have had it.
and dude read that twitter thread. its literally filled with *other people whose windows have spontaneously shattered*.
if you want to say hey, the bull thesis is you being bearish because youre retail and youre always going to get fucked, that jibes. i have no retort. but the EV market is saturated and musk has torched the brand. imo we are entering salted earth territory.
i honestly dont advocate shorting anything thats lost that much blood already unless youre scalping or maybe doing swings.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamSo you are saying instead of buying Air BnB puts I should be buying Tesla ones?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I started my TSLA rant at $157 here following SBF’s arrest.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatinei honestly dont advocate shorting anything thats lost that much blood already unless youre scalping or maybe doing swings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
TSLA needs to bounce a little. It has already. You can’t plumb new depths without exceeding the volume of the previous low. We need fresh weak longs who will get easily shook out on the next leg down. The smart money needs someone to sell their garbage to - we/they will walk the TSLA dog a bit and create the illusion of hope.
Wait for the negative conversation to turn into FOMO. Then light the put fuse. Puts have a time element so we want to wait for a break down after FOMO. Sacrifice a few cents for confirmation.
That’s my opinion.
Earnings are coming later in January.
Find a video about ABC structures while you wait. ChatGPT map TSLA ABC structures
A lot of the Tesla promoters on twitter are getting nervous:
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/st...4EnuleDkg&s=19
https://twitter.com/The_AI_Investor/...wOU9mo30A&s=19
Bulls say this is proof the car is safe.
Bears say that it went off the cliff because of Autopilot or FSD.
https://twitter.com/abc7newsbayarea/...271752704?s=20
:wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI started my TSLA rant at $157 here following SBF’s arrest.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
TSLA needs to bounce a little. It has already. You can’t plumb new depths without exceeding the volume of the previous low. We need fresh weak longs who will get easily shook out on the next leg down. The smart money needs someone to sell their garbage to - we/they will walk the TSLA dog a bit and create the illusion of hope.
Wait for the negative conversation to turn into FOMO. Then light the put fuse. Puts have a time element so we want to wait for a break down after FOMO. Sacrifice a few cents for confirmation.
That’s my opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar:wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
https://i.imgur.com/HREkK3p.jpeg
Malfunction? Nah, I’m goin’ with Toonces.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_hwerqogzQ
Headline on twitter said the father intentionally drove the car off the cliff. Murder suicides usually happen around the Holidays. Christmas Day being the most popular.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Maybe the father lost all his money in Tesla stock and wanted to kill himself, wife and kids. So he drove his Tesla off the cliff and survived. He's running bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
current cost of a model 3 in shanghai:
USD 33,415
current cost of a model 3 in los angeles:
USD 45,000
current cost of a bone saw in saudi arabia:
SAR 11,155
As I dove into the end of year Tesla discounts I learned Tesla pricing is very fluid. Prices for any given model are constantly changing throughout a model year.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Think airline seat pricing
As you would expect from Tesla, I suppose
Stonk gonna go donk down like Sonatine says or maybe it has reached sellers fatigue. I'm not playing it. Don't like Musk and won't touch it.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#0Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Use edit to change your units or whatever
This is M2 (Money supply) percentage change from last year. Money supply went up money supply go down
I’m operating from the thesis all stonks are going basically back to July 2020. How we get there is the fun part
Using this same chart using the link I provided you can drag your cursor over Jan 2020-Jun/jul 2020. I see you nodding your head.
I can give you a lotta chart theory (go pick Apple or Tesla and go draw some support lines). I love how M2 coincides with all the palm reading of charts. It’s just dollars chasing assets and the opposite now isn’t it?
Examples
Tesla 64
AAPL 90
Tesla shrugged off the price cuts and has now turned green. Ran out of sellers for now. Earnings in a few weeks will set the tone.
The dollar got smoked today so it takes more $ to buy ….Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
But I can see why you’re enthusiastic
tesla is literally up on the jobs report, like every other swinging dick.
someone please remind me to get short at 9:30:01 am est monday morning because its over.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/n...truck-outdated
The shorts back in 2012-2013 used that same sort of reasoning and then the stock went up 200x on them. I remember the TSLAQ morons chirping away 24/7 on Twitter back then. And now every donkey is short the stock. Tesla is one of those stocks that does well when short interest is high.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Cathie Wood and company have lost their touch recently but here is their latest:
https://twitter.com/TashaARK/status/...604775428?s=20
I am seeing a lot of Tesla Super Bulls turn bearish on Twitter. This guy here spent the last 2 years pumping and promoting the stock. His father was all in on the stock since 2015. His father lost 10 million in unrealized gains and then panic sold at $110. And now his target is $20/share. Stock market can really fuck with the brain.
https://twitter.com/teslaeconomist/s...249912320?s=20