So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Both of these polls show that Republicans saw the situation more accurately.

Thanks for posting.

The one you posted before that also indicated Republicans saw it more accurately, as the summer surge in verified cases (compared to a few months prior) was more due to vastly increased testing availability than an actual increases in cases.

SCIENCE!!!

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Yea just no.

"Developed intentionally" is just the usual plandemictard take. It was that retarded bioweapon spin you were peddling few months ago.

"In the next few months" was the Trump spin. Remind me again was it in the next few months? Obv "in a year or more" was also incorrect to a lesser degree, but we can give right +10 points for that. They get -11 from the few months bit and the advanced match skills give me -1 as the total. For a "more right" you would have to get score of over 0.

And then in July/August surge was because of more infections, not just tests. Team Retard scored -44. Have you thought about taking that super genius test that Trump aced?



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/15/u...-decrease.html

Ok this is going to be a lot harder. First you need to spot the surge in graph. It could be the slowly declining period that ended mid June or the steep rise that started after the decline.

Then you need to know this bit, "The United States averaged about 172,000 tests per day in April, before ramping up to an average of 510,000 in June and nearly 750,000 in July.

Now comes the really hard part. If you increase testing by 50% and your case numbers go up by more than 100%, is it more likely because of increase in testing or increase in infections?

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Nice try.

But you're doing simple math where the situation isn't simple.

It's not a matter of X number of tests available, and Y percentage come back positive.

Due to the shortage of tests in the early months, they were keeping them away from people in many jurisdictions who weren't showing obvious symptoms. I knew people personally who couldn't get a test for this reason, despite tests actually being available at hospitals they visisted.

So even though the number of tests given in April was about 1/3 the number in June, but the positivity rate was different, due to a lack of gatekeeping.

So how to explain the decline in confirmed cases in June, when testing was more available? Because there were also fewer COVID cases, mostly due to the horrendous NYC area situation improving itself. Then other areas of the country had their surges later in the summer, and this time there were enough tests to confirm them.

April 2020 was a really bad month for COVID, probably worse than August, but the availability of tests in August made that month look worse.

So yes, the Republicans were mostly right there. The test was about "previous months", and they weren't just thinking about June -- they were thinking about the then-recent months like April, which definitely had a testing shortage which affected the numbers big time.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rum dick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i stand corrected.



https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA...=0&xtrack=1#rd

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What's it say? Legit curious but my shitty kindle won't translate.

---

for virtually no apparent reason, china convened a state meeting today to decide and announce that they were tolerating exactly no more sketchy bullshit in the futures / commodities markets, that they would be ramping up law enforcement oversight, and they would be prosecuting an absolutel laundry list of behavior that more or less perfectly encapsulated the heart and soul of the chinese futures / commodities markets.

these things have always been huge complaints about the chinese market. theres a thread somewhere on my forum about chinese reverse mergers and how they were basically driven by systemic fraud that wasnt even considered illegal in china, costing amercan investors billions.

in any case within an hour of that page being published, chinese iron futures dropped 9%, etc etc. its an absolute deflationary bloodbath, and the american tech sector is going to probably moon tomorrow because of it.

very mysterious thing for china to do, and the timing of americans taking a calm, measured look at the source of covid seems like a possible case for quid pro quo.

Also, we've been through this before regarding the lab, and you ended up agreeing with me while pretending you weren't.

"Developed in a lab" doesn't mean it was developed from scratch. "Developed in a lab" can mean anything from completely fabricated there to using the lab to extract from animals, for purposes of potential weaponized use.

I believe the latter is the most likely. I also think it accidentally got released at that point (which, again, notice Republicans believe more than Democrats).

LOL @ Democrats trying so hard to exonerate China from responsibility here, just to show up Trump. You realize that's the reason for the divide, and not "xenophobia", right?

Three Wuhan lab researchers were hospitalized in November 2019: report

https://nypost.com/2021/05/23/three-...19-report/amp/

Scientists from the Wuhan lab were hospitalized with a virus that was similar to Covid-19.

China's People's Liberation Army was conducting experiments at the lab trying to make coronavirus more infectious to humans.

I wonder if they were successful?


https://nypost.com/wp-content/upload...trip=all&w=978

https://www.yahoo.com/news/michigan-...174726432.html

"No underlying conditions"....

Just ole racist covid again. Black and fat = no underlying.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Yea just no.

"Developed intentionally" is just the usual plandemictard take. It was that retarded bioweapon spin you were peddling few months ago.

"In the next few months" was the Trump spin. Remind me again was it in the next few months? Obv "in a year or more" was also incorrect to a lesser degree, but we can give right +10 points for that. They get -11 from the few months bit and the advanced match skills give me -1 as the total. For a "more right" you would have to get score of over 0.

And then in July/August surge was because of more infections, not just tests. Team Retard scored -44. Have you thought about taking that super genius test that Trump aced?



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/15/u...-decrease.html

Ok this is going to be a lot harder. First you need to spot the surge in graph. It could be the slowly declining period that ended mid June or the steep rise that started after the decline.

Then you need to know this bit, "The United States averaged about 172,000 tests per day in April, before ramping up to an average of 510,000 in June and nearly 750,000 in July.

Now comes the really hard part. If you increase testing by 50% and your case numbers go up by more than 100%, is it more likely because of increase in testing or increase in infections?

---

Nice try.

But you're doing simple math where the situation isn't simple.

It's not a matter of X number of tests available, and Y percentage come back positive.

Due to the shortage of tests in the early months, they were keeping them away from people in many jurisdictions who weren't showing obvious symptoms. I knew people personally who couldn't get a test for this reason, despite tests actually being available at hospitals they visisted.

So even though the number of tests given in April was about 1/3 the number in June, but the positivity rate was different, due to a lack of gatekeeping.

So how to explain the decline in confirmed cases in June, when testing was more available? Because there were also fewer COVID cases, mostly due to the horrendous NYC area situation improving itself. Then other areas of the country had their surges later in the summer, and this time there were enough tests to confirm them.

April 2020 was a really bad month for COVID, probably worse than August, but the availability of tests in August made that month look worse.

So yes, the Republicans were mostly right there. The test was about "previous months", and they weren't just thinking about June -- they were thinking about the then-recent months like April, which definitely had a testing shortage which affected the numbers big time.

---

You really can't be this stupid, right?

It's only about the surge in infection numbers between mid June to late July.

There was no summer surge before that.

The official numbers had been declining before that surge they are referring to. They went down from mid April to mid June and do you want to guess the direction of daily testing numbers? Yeah they went the opposite way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rum dick

What's it say? Legit curious but my shitty kindle won't translate.

---

for virtually no apparent reason, china convened a state meeting today to decide and announce that they were tolerating exactly no more sketchy bullshit in the futures / commodities markets, that they would be ramping up law enforcement oversight, and they would be prosecuting an absolutel laundry list of behavior that more or less perfectly encapsulated the heart and soul of the chinese futures / commodities markets.

these things have always been huge complaints about the chinese market. theres a thread somewhere on my forum about chinese reverse mergers and how they were basically driven by systemic fraud that wasnt even considered illegal in china, costing amercan investors billions.

in any case within an hour of that page being published, chinese iron futures dropped 9%, etc etc. its an absolute deflationary bloodbath, and the american tech sector is going to probably moon tomorrow because of it.

very mysterious thing for china to do, and the timing of americans taking a calm, measured look at the source of covid seems like a possible case for quid pro quo.

---

Jesus. The intelligence *leak* about how we almost nuked China over Taiwan in 1958 happened a couple days ago too.

Link re nuking China

https://www.deccanherald.com/interna...so-988870.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Nice try.

But you're doing simple math where the situation isn't simple.

It's not a matter of X number of tests available, and Y percentage come back positive.

Due to the shortage of tests in the early months, they were keeping them away from people in many jurisdictions who weren't showing obvious symptoms. I knew people personally who couldn't get a test for this reason, despite tests actually being available at hospitals they visisted.

So even though the number of tests given in April was about 1/3 the number in June, but the positivity rate was different, due to a lack of gatekeeping.

So how to explain the decline in confirmed cases in June, when testing was more available? Because there were also fewer COVID cases, mostly due to the horrendous NYC area situation improving itself. Then other areas of the country had their surges later in the summer, and this time there were enough tests to confirm them.

April 2020 was a really bad month for COVID, probably worse than August, but the availability of tests in August made that month look worse.

So yes, the Republicans were mostly right there. The test was about "previous months", and they weren't just thinking about June -- they were thinking about the then-recent months like April, which definitely had a testing shortage which affected the numbers big time.

---

You really can't be this stupid, right?

It's only about the surge in infection numbers between mid June to late July.

There was no summer surge before that.

The official numbers had been declining before that surge they are referring to. They went down from mid April to mid June and do you want to guess the direction of daily testing numbers? Yeah they went the opposite way.

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Here's the exact poll you posted:



People were asked, "What is the primary reason there are increasing numbers of confirmed cases?"

Then they were given the choices:

a) More people are being tested than in previous months

b) There are more new infections, not just tests


"Previous months" doesn't just include May and June. It also includes March and April. These were all previous recent months, when this poll was done in July.

It was very public that there weren't enough tests to go around in April. In fact, the libs constantly blamed Trump for it, and (wrongly) claimed that was the reason the US was having so many COVID deaths.

So people were hearing there were more cases than ever (something also repeated ad nauseum by the media), and then the smarter ones realized that this didn't tell the full story, because April was probably worse.

So the correct answer, if you have to choose one of the above, is, "More people are being tested than in previous months."

The fact that there was a big downturn in cases in June (compared to April) and then a re-uptick doesn't change that. While the media was screaming "OMG WORST CASE COUNT IN THE US EVARRRRRRR", intelligent people on the right were pointing out it was apples and oranges.

I see that you prefer the histrionic approach.

Before you write another wall of text, just click the link below...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/...-did-the-math/

...and then just still very simple math...

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...revalence.html

...the line to look for is "cases due to change in prevalence".

"A new STAT analysis of testing data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, however, shows with simple-to-understand numbers why Trump’s claim is wrong. In only seven states was the rise in reported cases from mid-May to mid-July driven primarily by increased testing. In the other 26 states — among the 33 that saw cases increase during that period — the case count rose because there was actually more disease."

What's just bizarre to me is that someone would think that people that fuck with statistics their whole life wouldn't be able to see very obvious noise.

Once again the decline started in mid April. Are they talking about the summer surge in April?

The survey was done in July 27th - August 2nd. After the peak of the surge.

It then started declining again, while the testing mostly stayed the same.

So are you saying that when testing numbers either went up or stayed the same while infection numbers went down it was because something else when the reverse was true?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Before you write another wall of text, just click the link below...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/...-did-the-math/

...and then just still very simple math...

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...revalence.html

...the line to look for is "cases due to change in prevalence".

"A new STAT analysis of testing data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, however, shows with simple-to-understand numbers why Trump’s claim is wrong. In only seven states was the rise in reported cases from mid-May to mid-July driven primarily by increased testing. In the other 26 states — among the 33 that saw cases increase during that period — the case count rose because there was actually more disease."

What's just bizarre to me is that someone would think that people that fuck with statistics their whole life wouldn't be able to see very obvious noise.

---

What's just bizarre to me is how you keep talking about mid-may to mid-July, not realizing that most of the people answering that poll were answering regarding "previous months", and anyone with a functioning brain was aware that April was way undertested.

Do you not remember the media with all the "HIGHEST CASELOAD EVER" headlines in July? Republicans were trying to explain that, no, the highest caseload ever was very likely in April, but the tests weren't there in enough number.

When they took this poll, the question on everyone's minds was, "Are we really going through the worst of it, or was it worse in the spring?"

The Republicans, by and large, answered correctly. The retards watching CNN insisted by a wide margin that it really was the worst ever right then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Once again the decline started in mid April. Are they talking about the summer surge in April?

The survey was done in July 27th - August 2nd. After the peak of the surge.

It then started declining again, while the testing mostly stayed the same.

So are you saying that when testing numbers either went up or stayed the same while infection numbers went down it was because something else when the reverse was true?

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The words "summer surge" weren't used in the poll.

Look again. They were asking if the recent increase in numbers, compared to PREVIOUS MONTHS, was primarily due to increased testing or increased cases.

Unless you believed the April caseload wasn't as bad as the then-recent one in July, the correct answer was, "Increased testing."

I don't know how many ways I can keep saying this until you understand.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Before you write another wall of text, just click the link below...

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/20/...-did-the-math/

...and then just still very simple math...

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...revalence.html

...the line to look for is "cases due to change in prevalence".

"A new STAT analysis of testing data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, however, shows with simple-to-understand numbers why Trump’s claim is wrong. In only seven states was the rise in reported cases from mid-May to mid-July driven primarily by increased testing. In the other 26 states — among the 33 that saw cases increase during that period — the case count rose because there was actually more disease."

What's just bizarre to me is that someone would think that people that fuck with statistics their whole life wouldn't be able to see very obvious noise.

---

What's just bizarre to me is how you keep talking about mid-may to mid-July, not realizing that most of the people answering that poll were answering regarding "previous months", and anyone with a functioning brain was aware that April was way undertested.

Do you not remember the media with all the "HIGHEST CASELOAD EVER" headlines in July? Republicans were trying to explain that, no, the highest caseload ever was very likely in April, but the tests weren't there in enough number.

When they took this poll, the question on everyone's minds was, "Are we really going through the worst of it, or was it worse in the spring?"

The Republicans, by and large, answered correctly. The retards watching CNN insisted by a wide margin that it really was the worst ever right then.

---

Did you click the link?

There's the proof in the link below and i added a nice summary for you.

The official numbers had been going down since mid April. The testing had been going up since April. Why are they going in different directions for 3 months. Same direction for 2 months and then back to going different directions for a few months. I'm sure you can come up with a plausible explanation.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Once again the decline started in mid April. Are they talking about the summer surge in April?

The survey was done in July 27th - August 2nd. After the peak of the surge.

It then started declining again, while the testing mostly stayed the same.

So are you saying that when testing numbers either went up or stayed the same while infection numbers went down it was because something else when the reverse was true?

---

The words "summer surge" weren't used in the poll.

Look again. They were asking if the recent increase in numbers, compared to PREVIOUS MONTHS, was primarily due to increased testing or increased cases.

Unless you believed the April caseload wasn't as bad as the then-recent one in July, the correct answer was, "Increased testing."

I don't know how many ways I can keep saying this until you understand.

---

So they disregard the period between mid April and mid June just for fun? And assume that recent increase must mean the difference between more than 3 months ago and now? Yea that's how retards think.

Maybe we should ask Facebook group consisting of retards if you're indeed one of them?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

What's just bizarre to me is how you keep talking about mid-may to mid-July, not realizing that most of the people answering that poll were answering regarding "previous months", and anyone with a functioning brain was aware that April was way undertested.

Do you not remember the media with all the "HIGHEST CASELOAD EVER" headlines in July? Republicans were trying to explain that, no, the highest caseload ever was very likely in April, but the tests weren't there in enough number.

When they took this poll, the question on everyone's minds was, "Are we really going through the worst of it, or was it worse in the spring?"

The Republicans, by and large, answered correctly. The retards watching CNN insisted by a wide margin that it really was the worst ever right then.

---

Did you click the link?

There's the proof in the link below and i added a nice summary for you.

The official numbers had been going down since mid April. The testing had been going up since April. Why are they going in different directions for 3 months. Same direction for 2 months and then back to going different directions for a few months. I'm sure you can come up with a plausible explanation.

---

WTF are you talking about?

We aren't talking about "directions" here, nor was the general public keeping careful track of all the directions of COVID numbers, especially because they were so widely varied depending upon the localized area.

Here's a bit of COVID history for you, which I'm sure you know, but are purposely ignoring because it proves you wrong:

1) April was really, really horrible when it came to COVID, with deaths peaking at over 2000 per day in the middle of the month, and then headed consistently downward for the next two months.

2) At the same time, testing was just starting to become more widely available, and the gatekeeper process keeping people away from tests was disapeparing.

3) In late June, the number of confirmed cases was the highest ever, but the death rate was far lower than it was in April. This was because of the vast difference in the number of available tests.

4) Once this "surge" recorded a record number of confirmed cases per day, the media hammered over and over that COVID was worse than ever, implying that the caseload had never been higher. They often left out the fact that the testing was vastly different in April, and that the number of deaths was much higher in April. This wasn't accidental sloppy reporting. It was to make Trump look bad, who was just a little more than 3 months away from possible reelectoin.


They did the poll at this point.

The poll was asking people what their perception was of COVID at this time. Was the "HIGHEST CASELOAD EVARRRR" panic overblown due to better testing protocols? Or were we really in an all-time worst COVID crisis? They were trying to find out what people thought, and also asked for party affiliation so they could draw some additional conclusions from that.

The language was very broad. It asked about the "previous months", not just compared to June. That's the part you keep missing.

Republicans remembered all the death in April, knew it wasn't as bad in late July at the time of this poll, and correctly said that the "HIGHEST CASELOAD EVARRR" was mostly due to increased testing.

Democrats by a margin of over 4-to-1 answered that it's mostly because of increased infection, because Orange Man Bad.

Now, if you want to redefine "previous months" to a cherry picked period which perfectly supports your narrative, go ahead if it makes you feel better. But that wasn't the spirit of the poll. The poll was trying to figure out whether the all-time crisis being presented in the media is being perceived as time to panic, or just better testing.

Take a look at this graph, of all COVID death numbers in the US: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-2020-n1177936

You'll see that the "summer surge" wasn't all that much of a surge at all, and that the end of April (when it had been declining for 2 weeks) still had more death than the peak of the "summer surge". \

Any comment on this one? You seemed to have skipped over the poll I posted.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...MasterAt3x.png

41% of Democrats thought that 50%+ of people with COVID had to be hospitalized. Still going to deny that this is a party of retarded sheep who just parrot whichever histrionic narrative is fed to them by CNN?

This poll was taken much later in the pandemic, btw. You can't even use the excuse that we were just at the beginning, before people understood COVID better. The media hammered them so much with COVID scare news that they exaggerated the actual hospitalization danger by a factor of about 25x.

Yea that's nice wall of text you have there.

After 40 days of increased infections group of people were asked if that was primarily because of increased tests or increased infections.

Before that there's was 60 days of slowly declining infections. And after the July peak about 60 days of decline.

The ratios were about 30 infections at peak April, 20 at start of June and peaking at 70 mid July.

Background to all this was constant claims by Trump that increase in official infection numbers was primarily because of increased testing. First mention of it was in June 15th.

The testing numbers grew gradually all the way from April.

Why the direction of growth with both metrics matters is because increased testing doesn't even correlate with increased infections. For 120 days increased testing showed decreasing infection numbers. Only for 40 days during the summer surge did it correlate.

I already provided one of many studies where testing numbers were normalized to show the increased spread. From a snapshot of all states only 7 vs 26 showed increased testing being the primary reason of growth.

The survey wasn't about the increase of infections today compared to over a hundred days ago. The context was Trumps claim that we're seeing increased numbers today compared to last week because of testing.

Deaths and hospitalizations mean nothing here. The virus simply isn't as deadly in the summer months as was seen everywhere.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Any comment on this one? You seemed to have skipped over the poll I posted.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...MasterAt3x.png

41% of Democrats thought that 50%+ of people with COVID had to be hospitalized. Still going to deny that this is a party of retarded sheep who just parrot whichever histrionic narrative is fed to them by CNN?

This poll was taken much later in the pandemic, btw. You can't even use the excuse that we were just at the beginning, before people understood COVID better. The media hammered them so much with COVID scare news that they exaggerated the actual hospitalization danger by a factor of about 25x.

---

So. Most Americans are idiots. Was histrionic your word of the day?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Any comment on this one? You seemed to have skipped over the poll I posted.

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021...MasterAt3x.png

41% of Democrats thought that 50%+ of people with COVID had to be hospitalized. Still going to deny that this is a party of retarded sheep who just parrot whichever histrionic narrative is fed to them by CNN?

This poll was taken much later in the pandemic, btw. You can't even use the excuse that we were just at the beginning, before people understood COVID better. The media hammered them so much with COVID scare news that they exaggerated the actual hospitalization danger by a factor of about 25x.

---

So. Most Americans are idiots. Was histrionic your word of the day?

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If you're willing to go with, "Most Americans are idiots, but they're most likely to be Democrats", I'll actually agree with you.

Notice that 26% of Republicans got this one right, whereas only 10% of Dems did. That's a pretty fucking big difference. Notice that 0% was only chosen by 4% of Republicans, so you can't even say they lucked into it because the party is full of COVID deniers.

While many Republicans had incorrect views on COVID, I found that there were also a lot of reasonable ones, whereas the Dems pretty much went lockstep with what the media told them to thnk, yet at the same time were arrogant about their "following of the science".

That's why liberals like Nate Silver finally had to speak out that most of his party sucked on this issue.