https://twitter.com/garyblack00/stat...84675968831495
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Originally Posted by sonatine
wow, interesting for sure. do you follow wifey? most of his shit is unreadable to me, a relative neophyte, so its just another one to browse. anyway, thanks for the post.
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Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
wow, interesting for sure. do you follow wifey? most of his shit is unreadable to me, a relative neophyte, so its just another one to browse. anyway, thanks for the post.
naw what little i know about stocks/etfs these days comes from other futures traders riffing about macro etc.
but i follow a few scam-watch accounts and one of them reposted this thread.
I told Gary to exit the stock when Elon started selling last year. He blocked me. Gary Black is a fool.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Financial Twitter is filled with nothing but frauds and cons. Winning traders don't sell newsletters, winning traders don't tweet all day. Only losing traders do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
wow, interesting for sure. do you follow wifey? most of his shit is unreadable to me, a relative neophyte, so its just another one to browse. anyway, thanks for the post.
The biggest fraud is Peter Schiff. I started investigating him because he was attacking Bitcoin daily. It is documented that he first went bearish when it was $17.50 per Bitcoin. Anyway, I found a website that reviews brokerage firms and anyone who likes Peter Schiff should read it. The reviews are not flattering.
https://topratedfirms.com/brokers/cu...al-review.aspx
He uses his large twitter following to scam them into opening up brokerage accounts with his firm. And then he gets them to buy foreign stocks because he scares them into thinking the USD is gonna crash. Just one problem..he charges up to 5% each way on the trade. 5% buy, 5% sell. It's a scam like in that movie Boiler Room.
You’d think I was wearing an SBF Emsam patch with all this posting.
Car repossession (not proud of TheStreet.com link but it’s a good explanation).
Elon & Cathy Wood make appearances
WAIVING "open auto stipulations" for consumers.. If you have an existing auto loan that is underwater the lender will give you a new loan fully knowing you will default on your existing loan.
https://www.thestreet.com/technology...omobile-crisis
$64
3 years ago you could lease a BMW with a $57,000 MSRP sticker for $550/month (including taxes) for 36 months 12000 miles with $1000 down payment. Today it costs just as much to lease a $30,000 Toyota Camry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
We went from people overpaying $10,000 MSRP because of a car shortage to noone being able to afford financing one in the span of 12 months.
Tesla continues to drill. Down another 5% today.
are we buying at 136?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
13 million in unrealized gains gone. Reminds me of Archie Karas running it up to 40 million before losing it all. You need no regard for money and no fear to do it. And usually that means you don't know when to quit.
https://twitter.com/jasondebolt/stat...918831616?s=20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriendare we buying at 136?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I’ll answer this way take a look ahead to 2024 options. Snapped min.s before the close. Looks at puts and my cursor. They are telling you what it is with that price. That’s unbelievable. $95 pos if they try real hard.
I just can’t get in front of this train hoping to scalp some kind of bounce. This thing is going to $64 eventually.
The Dow is actually looking pretty decent, for instance. There ARE pockets of utter failure. 80% haircuts. I don’t need to play with losers except as shorts.
TESLA HAS TOLD EMPLOYEES THAT IT IS IMPLEMENTING A HIRING FREEZE AND CONFIRMED THAT ANOTHER WAVE OF LAYOFFS IS COMING NEXT QUARTER - ELECTREK
interesting because a) thats pretty bullish and b) russia is ready to hold talks on ukraine so that situation might stabilize as well, which is also bullish.
however.
china abandoning zero covid is going to get wild as fuck.
also musk's shining new philosophy of fire everyone not willing to do the work of 3 people is going to create infrastructure instability.
when facebook goes offline, you cant look at memes there or find out what your drunk aunt thinks of the drama between british royals.
when tesla goes offline, things get a lot more complicated. shout out to recent events where a bunch of proud tesla owners couldnt get their doors to unlock because of a 'network hiccup'.
oh also cathy just superlonged tesla so run for the hills on principle right there.
I cant remember if this is the thread we use for general stock observations/predictions, but I will act as it is.
Anyways, although obviously late to the party as it is already down 50%+ from all time highs, I am thinking AirBnB stock is primed to really tank in the next year. It was probably overvalued to begin with, and I think the coming recession/housing downturn will especially hit the short term rental industry in a way which we will agree was very obvious in hindsight.
As an aside, I have some personal experience with this, as I am the owner of an investment property I am currently renting out as an AirBnb, which was doing very well for 2 years, but the market has just died completely in the last 6 months. And I actually count myself as one of the "lucky" ones as I bought my place a couple years ago with a 2.5% mortgage rate, so even with the market drying up big time, I am still ok as my expenses are low.
I know a lot of people, personally and through online groups, who bought in the last year, and have much bigger relative mortgages/interest rates and are going to be in for some massive pain, which should trickle down to the prospects of the AirBnb company itself.
yeah i feel like airbnb really shot its nuts off by basically becoming more expensive than a hotel by a dramatic margin while offering a fraction of the convenience, cleanliness, and reliability, by and large.
im sure its tied to interest rates etc but imo the bullet to the head here was general belt tightening among consumers thanks to a inflation and the resultant austerity measures.
in any case im hearing a lot of people saying what youre saying; airbnb based revenue streams went from reliable to virtually non-existent, and for a lot of people negative if they were renting to cover mortgages.
Actually the big expense that makes it more expensive than a hotel is cleaning. Airbnb takes some out, but it actually isn’t that much. Depending on market, size of house, etc. the cost for professional cleaners to come in between guests is anywhere from $125-$300. In a tight market like this if you only have a couple places and are local and can clean yourself, you can slash prices and have a leg up. But most people like me don’t have the option, so we have to hire cleaners which makes it much more expensive than a hotel, which can charge way less for cleaning because of how they are set up and scaled.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by KalamActually the big expense that makes it more expensive than a hotel is cleaning. Airbnb takes some out, but it actually isn’t that much. Depending on market, size of house, etc. the cost for professional cleaners to come in between guests is anywhere from $125-$300. In a tight market like this if you only have a couple places and are local and can clean yourself, you can slash prices and have a leg up. But most people like me don’t have the option, so we have to hire cleaners which makes it much more expensive than a hotel, which can charge way less for cleaning because of how they are set up and scaled.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
ok cool but cleaning costs have not gone up and people are charging $300 cleaning fees for a bachelor studio / no kitchen and $50 goes to the cleaners and $250 goes to their plug.
like people went from simply including the expected cleaning fees to double dipping on them after multiplying them by 3 because everyone bought the top of the airbnb mania phase.
I dont know about your market, but you aren't finding any dependable cleaning crews in the market I am in for $50.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
ok cool but cleaning costs have not gone up and people are charging $300 cleaning fees for a bachelor studio / no kitchen and $50 goes to the cleaners and $250 goes to their plug.
Anyways, for a couple years hosts (including myself) were "overcharging" because people were willing to pay it. And now the novelty has worn off, the govt aint handing out free $$ like it was, and a lot of people are perfectly fine going back to paying $150/night for a motel room instead of $400/night to rent a 2 BR house (with extremely variably quality) for a night. It is what it is.
In hindsight I think it is obvious the company was way too aggressive allowing people to host that had no business, and that has ruined the quality of the product for a lot of potential customers. But apparently most of the founders cashed out when the stock was much higher than it is now, so from their perspective things worked out just fine.
This is brutal. I loaded a significant sum (for me at least) into my brokerage account to buy some AirBnb puts, but it takes a couple days for the money to be available for options, and meanwhile while I am waiting for that to happen the stock has dropped 5%.
Sigh.
You fucked up. You need to wire the money in to have immediate access for options. Did you do a regular money transfer?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Yeah. I am very much an amateur trader. Interestingly, it said I could use the money immediately for normal stock trades, just not options. ABNB is 84 now, and I would not be surprised at all if it was below 50 at some point this years, so I think it is still +EV to do some long term puts. But obviously would have been way better doing them at 88.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_BananaYou fucked up. You need to wire the money in to have immediate access for options. Did you do a regular money transfer?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Yes. They will let you use the money for stocks (except penny stocks) immediately but not options. They don't want you gambling away the money until it is pulled from your bank. They don't mind you buying stock because you can't possibly lose that much in a few days...unless you buying Tesla stock.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamYeah. I am very much an amateur trader. Interestingly, it said I could use the money immediately for normal stock trades, just not options. ABNB is 84 now, and I would not be surprised at all if it was below 50 at some point this years, so I think it is still +EV to do some long term puts. But obviously would have been way better doing them at 88.Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
robinhood, for all its sins, gives immediate access to up to $1000 on deposit.
that said i expect the IV on your airbnb puts would have been pretty miserable.
Give me a little more credit than that. I dont pretend to be some big trader, but when I say I was going to invest a significant sum it is a much bigger number than this. But yeah, you are probably right. Lets say I did a 1 year put and the stock did drop to $50 in the next 6 months, I dont even know what I would make off of that, but probably much less than I assume.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
robinhood, for all its sins, gives immediate access to up to $1000 on deposit.
that said i expect the IV on your airbnb puts would have been pretty miserable.
On another note, on Twitter now I keep getting these ads for a investment startup called "Strive" who are basically marketing themselves as analogues to Vanguard/Blackrock, but without the political correctness, which they argue is costing investors money. In theory, this obviously appeals to my biases, which is probably why I am getting these ads in the first place.
But practically, even if Vanguard is investing in shitty companies for political reasons, those companies are probably also being subsidized and propped up by the govt for the same reasons, so they still might outperform more legit companies in the market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamGive me a little more credit than that. I dont pretend to be some big trader, but when I say I was going to invest a significant sum it is a much bigger number than this. But yeah, you are probably right. Lets say I did a 1 year put and the stock did drop to $50 in the next 6 months, I dont even know what I would make off of that, but probably much less than I assume.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
the stock is trading at 40%'ish of its highs earlier this year and you want to take a 6 month short position _now_? maybe do a put spread or something i guess... your thesis needs to be something like a 30%+ drop between now and june expiration if youre doing naked puts and want to double up from an ITM strike today. a slightly OTM put spread yields the 30% more profit (130%) at a 17% drop from current value.
The bottom line is the business model only works if a lot of people are willings to spend significantly more than a hotel to rent out a house/room. There really is no way to profitably rent out a house (with all the associated costs) for $100-$200/night.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
the stock is trading at 40%'ish of its highs earlier this year and you want to take a 6 month short position _now_? maybe do a put spread or something i guess... your thesis needs to be something like a 30%+ drop between now and june expiration if youre doing naked puts and want to double up from an ITM strike today. a slightly OTM put spread yields the 30% more profit (130%) at a 17% drop from current value.
I wish I had the epiphany 6 months ago that this wasn't a long term viable business model, but I didn't. But I do now, so it is just a question of whether
a) Am I right
b) Is the current stock price reflective of this reality
the bottomer line is youre looking to short an equity using a synthetic asset but appear to have no exit thesis beyond 'their model is shit and no one uses them' which would have been very cagey 6 months ago when everyone was saying the same thing when they were trading at like 205.
like if you think they are going to zero at some point, yeah go balls deep but just as likely the stock gets halted one day and youre like uhhhh and by the time its unfrozen, you find out zillow just acquired them and PnL is blood red.
$115Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriendare we buying at 136?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Drilling for oil
At least it can't go below $0. Biggest disaster stock in history.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar$115Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Drilling for oil
Speaking of TSLA - young Cathie Wood
basically all the ads on twitter at this point are casinos / gambling and for those who dont know, thats basically the absolute worst paying ad genre. like by a lot.
$126. That’s a big move for this cornerstone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
There is an argument AAPL could go to $75. Don’t spoil the surprise for your friends
Everything and every indice is in an ABC down.
$700b of TSLA market value gone in 2022Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Musk has lost somewhere in the order of $130b.
SBF is a trifle in comparison.
Care to speculate about Musk’s drug use atm?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar$700b of TSLA market value gone in 2022Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Musk has lost somewhere in the order of $130b.
SBF is a trifle in comparison.
Care to speculate about Musk’s drug use atm?
i heard he was 'microdosing' meth for years and that jibes with what we know about grimes' tastes.
but you know, just putting it out there, he seems less like a drug addict than a wounded narcissist who is no longer capable of recognizing the difference between positive and negative attention.
the drugs might have got him here of course but his son changing genders, grimes blowing him off to fuck chelsea manning, getting turned away at the door at berghain, like theres a laundry list of middle age nightmares that have come true for him.
like imagine if endgame howard hughes had twitter.
i saw a great post recently, and i literally just dug it up to share with you:
So, anyone heard any ideas on anything actionable from the after-affects of China dropping zero Covid? It seems like something that should be a big deal to the markets in the next few months, but I haven't heard very much about how it may affect the markets. I am guessing it is one of those things where something major will happen, and in hindsight we will all go (oh yeah, that made sense, of course that was going to happen), but in the moment nothing is coming to mind.
Such a wordsmith!! What a Tine post, an absolute classic. How do you do it?? You just make it all up so it sounds good....that's how.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
i heard he was 'microdosing' meth for years and that jibes with what we know about grimes' tastes.
but you know, just putting it out there, he seems less like a drug addict than a wounded narcissist who is no longer capable of recognizing the difference between positive and negative attention.
the drugs might have got him here of course but his son changing genders, grimes blowing him off to fuck chelsea manning, getting turned away at the door at berghain, like theres a laundry list of middle age nightmares that have come true for him.
like imagine if endgame howard hughes had twitter.
i saw a great post recently, and i literally just dug it up to share with you:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/elon-musk-shrooms-mdma
Took 3 fucking seconds to realize you were lying, again. Because the only reality is what you come up with in your delusional fantasy world, full of children's toys and.....well we will stop there. Yeah you "heard it" all right. From those voices in your head.
Oh and Tesla is up 7% today you obese faggot. Short that.
Doesn't quite equate with me how the most tubby and mediocre among us are such Elon cock protectors.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerSuch a wordsmith!! What a Tine post, an absolute classic. How do you do it?? You just make it all up so it sounds good....that's how.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
i heard he was 'microdosing' meth for years and that jibes with what we know about grimes' tastes.
but you know, just putting it out there, he seems less like a drug addict than a wounded narcissist who is no longer capable of recognizing the difference between positive and negative attention.
the drugs might have got him here of course but his son changing genders, grimes blowing him off to fuck chelsea manning, getting turned away at the door at berghain, like theres a laundry list of middle age nightmares that have come true for him.
like imagine if endgame howard hughes had twitter.
i saw a great post recently, and i literally just dug it up to share with you:
https://futurism.com/neoscope/elon-musk-shrooms-mdma
Took 3 fucking seconds to realize you were lying, again. Because the only reality is what you come up with in your delusional fantasy world, full of children's toys and.....well we will stop there. Yeah you "heard it" all right. From those voices in your head.
Oh and Tesla is up 7% today you obese faggot. Short that.
Would love an explanation why he so appeals to you.
some of the pillars of elon's cult are openly pleading with apple to buy tesla.