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not that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What are you talking about?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Most good players last longer than that.
I'm not talking about the average scrub who is a career reserve and is out of the league by age 31.
Lebron, for example, is just about to turn 33, and he is very far from retirement.
I am enjoying this 3rd Q immensely so far.
LOL. You are cherry picking arguably the best player who ever played and who (so far) has had the best longevity and health who has ever played as your example? Talk about the exception proving the rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoodedNnot that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I would be surprised if 5% of 1st round draft picks lasted until age 34.
Yeah but still, it's weird given that he was one of the top 3 players on a very good 2013-14 Warriors team, and now he's out of the NBA.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoodedNnot that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Your brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.
Great game, huh?
The final two NBA games (Chicago/Phoenix, Denver/Lakers) saw a lot of sharp money on both Chicago and Lakers.
Well, Chicago once again shit the bed, but the Lakers are absolutely destroying Denver.
I didn't consider Chicago because they are awful and I'm done backing them, but the Lakers are somewhat less awful, and I was leaning that way, but they've been such a mess lately that I couldn't pull the trigger. Then I considered the over/under in the Lakers game and couldn't even come up with which way to bet, so that was out the window.
Anyway kinda regretting not firing on Lakers because part of me really thought they were winning this one outright.
I took Pheonix because of the logic that Chicago had a real big win their last game, and bad teams tend to shit the bed after a big win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I probably should have taken the Lakers. They were coming off an embarrassing loss and Denver was coming off a monster win. So the narrative made sense, but I thought Denver would score 114 regardless of what else happened so I bet that. I actually only need 21 points in the last 7 minutes of garbage time to hit. it is possible. Just depends on if the scrubs keep playing fast or if they shut it down.
Lost $1000 yesterday and won $600 today when all was said and done, so lost but not as bad as could have been I guess. The Browns losing the cover on a defensive TD at the end of the game was especially brutal. 2nd time this year that has happened to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYour brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.
Great game, huh?
I see Seattle is a 1.5 pt DOG tomorrow. I wonder when was the last time Seattle was a dog at home? I wanna say the year they won the Super Bowl they were a small dogs to the Patriots in a prime time game and beat them and that was kind of their coming out party, and that was the last time I can remember and there is a good chance that memory is false.
I haven’t seen Seattle this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
The narrative is injuries. Secondary and offensive line (which sucks anyway) left tackle, i think. Something like that.
never laid eyes on Atlanta either.
I worry Seattle’s home field might affect Ryan the same way Minneapolis got to Goff.
Atlanta’s coaching staff blows though.
Nevertheless, I bought early, expecting Seattle money. Nobody believed in Atlanta before they beat Dallas. They still don’t. So I thought I was buying value somehow.
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 475 ATLANTA FALCONS +2˝ -105 FOR GAME
We are seeing some + 1
I have a hole in my game. What is the significance of a line crossing zero? Why is it more significant than an equivalent delta from any other number? Walk me through how the book thinks about this.
TIA
It never fails on this site.
I say over it goes goes under Lobster Mac style.. 108 on a mother fcing cop...
Boys and Whores Rosa is making this happen..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kmmJUw_8qA
Handicap, Daly, Monsterj, any other financial/wagering wonks
What is the correlation between
contract close (game outcome) vs contract open (opening line)
vs
contract close (game outcome) vs contract end (closing line)
Which would have a tighter correlation?
Is momentum wrong independent of news (injury/weather rare)?
Aware of any long term study on this?
Interesting to challenge the conventional thinking about the value of the closing line.
What is the worth of gaming value simply from momentum if you can’t arbitrage cause sportsbetting vig is too high?
Maybe this is pointless late night drinking and thinking
maybe I'm looking at this completely wrong, but wouldn't the correlation not be so significant given that the best bettors only hit 60ish% of the time...so while they can drive a line a certain way, they're not gonna be right at that great a % of the time for the results to mean anything...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
of course that above paragraph coulda been good ol' caesars mental masturbation for ya...gotta kick that...
Thanks for playing. I hear the slim success argument amongst even the best
The “sharps” or syndicates will fluff a pinnacle early morning line the wrong way on light money. Call that phony momentum. Vegas and the rest will mimic those lines mid morning. Then they’ll (syndicate) take the other side.
Fake momentum. Essentially they push back to open.
I just have a hunch I wouldn’t be surprised if the open is “righter” than the momentum
This is a financial trading snapshot. Lol, daytrading stupid momo
Game outcome is contract termination. Whatever.
I need help. I should be surfing porn
I know an agent that has a new guy that is crushing it. First week he's up small with a few bets but since Friday he is 34-2-10. Only about 1/3 of his bets are NFL everything else is college bball and football. He's only lost 2 college plays the other 8 loses were NFL.
Whats the biggest heater you have seen? How many wins in a row or best record over a week or month?
WormholeQuote:
Originally Posted by Goodpoop
Wormhole v2
TMMLK NFL 2015?
Verminaard (betting against him)
After my Eagles ML bet won, I am up to $42.77 from just a measly $2.65. Here is where I try to double up or as close to it as possible.
Parlay $42.77 $29.28
Basketball - 519 Boston Celtics -275 for Game
Basketball - 518 San Antonio Spurs -425 for Game
Here to riding this great streak.
I have lost 15 bets in a row, which is just as hard as winning 15 in a row.Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodpoop
TY for pick. Took Mavs +230 and Mavs +6.5. $300 each. Also taking under 199.5 for $500Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA