*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by verminaard

Raptors +6.5
I also took another bet on a game that Druff bet that I don't want to disclose cause don't want to stress him out.

-So I have made 3 bets today. Seems like my strategy of betting more $$ but less games is just turning into betting more $$. What could go wrong?

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You took Brooklyn +7 or +6.5.

I know this because you seem to hate my unders typically and you have been doing underdog betting recently.

So yes I'm going to stress about it now. But thanks for the thought.

The under looking great right now is San Antonio, even though it's early.

I think Brooklyn will cover the spread, and the O/U is a toss-up right now, though leaning a bit against me.

Your Toronto pick is looking strong. I considered that one, and also considered Dallas +6.5.

EDIT: Of course Brooklyn starts blowing it as soon as I post the above. SFSTANDARD

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No. I took Under in the Dallas game. 2 super slow playing teams, a high probability of blowout, and a 200 total? I generally hate under, but that one seemed easy. I do like underdogs, but not touching Brooklyn with their top scorer injured. That one was too far a bridge.to travel.

The Toronto pick was actually from a DFS tout. I do NBA daily fantasy almost every day and listen to some youtube videos. One of the guys I like to listen to said he loved Toronto today, and I went with it.

I lost $1900 last week, but already up $700 this week. Hopefully the positive variance can continue and we can keep getting more of it back.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Also Brooklyn +7 -115

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I took +6.5 and the under. I'm now 0-3 taking your pics. Can't quick now.

I think I'm like 1-4 taking wormhole pics too. Maybe I should just quit.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Also Brooklyn +7 -115

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I took +6.5 and the under. I'm now 0-3 taking your pics. Can't quick now.

I think I'm like 1-4 taking wormhole pics too. Maybe I should just quit.

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Ah, it's your fault I've gone cold.

To be fair, nobody told you to take +6.5, and we got a big dick in the ass with the under -- and not what you'd consider the good kind.

And who told you to leave out the San Antonio under, which was winning from the first second of play?

I went 1-1-1 today and honestly deserved 2-1. In fact, I deserved 3-0 more than I deserved 1-1-1.

This was my first tie in my 48 picks thus far.

31-16-1 stands the record

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

That wasn't a chop.

I had under 208.5 and that screwed my under. I went 0-1-1 on the game instead of 1-1.

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meant push on the Brooklyn +7 part...blows they had to foul fucking tatum with 7 seconds to go down 9....

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It was ridiculous. Before it happened, I thought, "They're not really going to foul him now, are they?"

Sure enough.

:fail

Tonight is a rare night. 4 teams parlay is money.

Wizards +1
Knicks -4.5
Cavs -2
Pistons +4

If you are riskaverse just take Knicks and Cavs but for 15 to 1 payout, take all four.

Another combo pick where hopefully I don't get fucked again with 2 seconds left:

Indiana +3.5
Indiana Under 204.5

NOTE: MiCon (that is, Michael Conley) didn't pahticipate in the shooting round, and that was just announced. Good chance he's not playing. Once it's announced he's out, the line will probably get worse, so bet now if you want Indiana.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Depends if Curry is playing.

If so, Warriors -5 or -6

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In Boston. Gimme GS -4. Prolly gets bid up. Gonna try to catch first line.. Betonline usually early or first.

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Betonline was the first at 12:09pm with a -6 -110... minutes later -7 -115. Gotta have a quick first step, I guess. I prolly woulda done the -6.

I want to pahticipate but losing feels worse than playing.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet but seriously looking at Charlotte +2 vs Cleveland. Lebron had to go through a lot of effort to come back last game and beat the Knicks. I feel this could be a letdown after that. This is a serious problem for Cleveland. They are not blowing anyone out allowing him to rest and he can't just defer to Kyrie in the 4th Q some games and take it easy. For them to win he literally has to play 35+ minutes hard, and it doesn't seem he is able to do it multiple games in a row consistently.

One problem with Charlotte is that this will be Batum's first game of the season. He is a good player and will definitely make their team better, but it might be awkward initially, especially the first game.

Still thinking about it.

Don't worry Druff. Definitely not taking any action on Indiana game.

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Originally Posted by verminaard

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You took Brooklyn +7 or +6.5.

I know this because you seem to hate my unders typically and you have been doing underdog betting recently.

So yes I'm going to stress about it now. But thanks for the thought.

The under looking great right now is San Antonio, even though it's early.

I think Brooklyn will cover the spread, and the O/U is a toss-up right now, though leaning a bit against me.

Your Toronto pick is looking strong. I considered that one, and also considered Dallas +6.5.

EDIT: Of course Brooklyn starts blowing it as soon as I post the above. SFSTANDARD

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No. I took Under in the Dallas game. 2 super slow playing teams, a high probability of blowout, and a 200 total? I generally hate under, but that one seemed easy. I do like underdogs, but not touching Brooklyn with their top scorer injured. That one was too far a bridge.to travel.

The Toronto pick was actually from a DFS tout. I do NBA daily fantasy almost every day and listen to some youtube videos. One of the guys I like to listen to said he loved Toronto today, and I went with it.

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do you actually win at NBA DFS? I tried it for three straight years for like a month and got so fucking frustrated with it I quit after the first month or so...I know LOL sample size, but just felt I had no shot against the algos...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by verminaard

No. I took Under in the Dallas game. 2 super slow playing teams, a high probability of blowout, and a 200 total? I generally hate under, but that one seemed easy. I do like underdogs, but not touching Brooklyn with their top scorer injured. That one was too far a bridge.to travel.

The Toronto pick was actually from a DFS tout. I do NBA daily fantasy almost every day and listen to some youtube videos. One of the guys I like to listen to said he loved Toronto today, and I went with it.

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do you actually win at NBA DFS? I tried it for three straight years for like a month and got so fucking frustrated with it I quit after the first month or so...I know LOL sample size, but just felt I had no shot against the algos...

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Nah. Just play for fun. I am not sure anyone wins anymore, on the big sites especially. They rake 16% now, and like online poker, I suspect there isn't enough dead money in the player pool to beat the rake.

I think the model for "winning" long term is to be a shill for a site or to be a tout and sell picks. Not sure anyone is really making any decent money. Maybe guys at the top betting thousands of $$'s/day, but that isn't something I worry about.

But it is fun and exciting, and I don't lose too much either. I maybe play $10-$50/night and I do win sometimes, so probably lose something like $50/week which I can live with.

And who knows, maybe someday will hit the big score.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

In Boston. Gimme GS -4. Prolly gets bid up. Gonna try to catch first line.. Betonline usually early or first.

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Betonline was the first at 12:09pm with a -6 -110... minutes later -7 -115. Gotta have a quick first step, I guess. I prolly woulda done the -6.

I want to pahticipate but losing feels worse than playing.

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The books can't afford to hang a -4 line on GS

Will be an interesting game for sure.

I think my play will be looking for a spot where a team gets down 12-15 pts in the 2nd quarter or early 3rd. (Ideally the Warriors)

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Originally Posted by simpdog

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Betonline was the first at 12:09pm with a -6 -110... minutes later -7 -115. Gotta have a quick first step, I guess. I prolly woulda done the -6.

I want to pahticipate but losing feels worse than playing.

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The books can't afford to hang a -4 line on GS

Will be an interesting game for sure.

I think my play will be looking for a spot where a team gets down 12-15 pts in the 2nd quarter or early 3rd. (Ideally the Warriors)

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The books know people love to bet the Warriors at half when they are down big, and they often come back. I have many instances where Warriors were down by 15 at half and 2nd half line is -18.

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Originally Posted by verminaard

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

do you actually win at NBA DFS? I tried it for three straight years for like a month and got so fucking frustrated with it I quit after the first month or so...I know LOL sample size, but just felt I had no shot against the algos...

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Nah. Just play for fun. I am not sure anyone wins anymore, on the big sites especially. They rake 16% now, and like online poker, I suspect there isn't enough dead money in the player pool to beat the rake.

I think the model for "winning" long term is to be a shill for a site or to be a tout and sell picks. Not sure anyone is really making any decent money. Maybe guys at the top betting thousands of $$'s/day, but that isn't something I worry about.

But it is fun and exciting, and I don't lose too much either. I maybe play $10-$50/night and I do win sometimes, so probably lose something like $50/week which I can live with.

And who knows, maybe someday will hit the big score.

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yeah the rake is just unfucking real...was looking at the only site that still has CFB DFS and it was about 16% and I LOLed...

I signed up through RG and used to get their incentive packages for free...used to fire a decent size on NFL every week and daily on MLB so figured they were getting their money's worth...they cut my subscription this year and wanted me to pay like $250-300/year for it...I of course laughed at that shit because of the shitton of rake I was generating for their asses...I just stopped playing...probably for the best because i was a slight losing player in both...seems like they're trying to suck every last penny outta the game before it dries up because like you said the lack of dead money and rake is just gonna kill it off...

youre doing it right, keeping it small and not giving too much edge to the fucking algo guys...good luck on snapping a big one off...

Talk to me

76ers -3 -112 / Lakers
Total under 220 -110

Walton actually has gotten Lakers to play some D. Expectations are for a track meet.

Will I see some dopey LA public money late?

Joel Embiid trash talk is top top. Was it a double technical Embiid vs Durant? I think post game Durant questioned the T’s, the league, and respected Embiid’s mouth saying it was good for the game.

Pure garbage NFL this weekend. I heard predictions this coming MNF will drill new lows in viewership. Other than Pats Raiders, I just can’t. Little tempted by Saints

Thanks for the feedback... continue to stay silent after 76’ers win.

Here’s a great stat. LeBron is 23-1 vs Charlotte since Michael Jordan took over.

I haven't decided on Laker game yet. I want to see the game and I normally bet games I watch, so will probably bet something. There are good narratives supporting both sides.

Just took:

Miami (Oh) -2.5

Atlanta -5
Hornets +1

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Originally Posted by verminaard

I haven't decided on Laker game yet. I want to see the game and I normally bet games I watch, so will probably bet something. There are good narratives supporting both sides.

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Like Ball will crack 22% shooting ?

Coming back from 4 game road trip and usually a let down game? Except somehow they’ll be up for 76ers?

Lakers suck. Bad public teams are your ATM

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by verminaard

I haven't decided on Laker game yet. I want to see the game and I normally bet games I watch, so will probably bet something. There are good narratives supporting both sides.

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Like Ball will crack 22% shooting ?

Coming back from 4 game road trip and usually a let down game? Except somehow they’ll be up for 76ers?

Lakers suck.

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Well, they went 1-3 on road trip so dunno if this is really a let down spot. Not like they are riding some great high. I doubt Ball will even be playing in the 4th Q if the game is competitive. The bottom line is right now Clarkson is better, and it seems Walton is trying to win competitive games by putting out his best lineups, so unless his shot is way off Clarkson is going to probably run the offense down the stretch in a competitive game.

I think this is more of a "rally the troops game" for Philly than the Lakers. I think Ball completely blocks out his dad's drama and he doesn't even notice it one way or the other. On the other hand, Embiid is obviously neck deep in the drama and the 76ers will be also by proxy I think. My gut is to go Philly -3. Wouldn't be surprised if the line was 4 by tipoff though, which is going to probably be around 7:45 pm PST.