i was listening to red scare the other night and they were talking about how the next big public health crisis is going to be women who drank themselves into dementia and my first thought was 'its already here and its name is splitthis'.
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i was listening to red scare the other night and they were talking about how the next big public health crisis is going to be women who drank themselves into dementia and my first thought was 'its already here and its name is splitthis'.
I speak jive.
She said she is fixing up her home. Did some plumbing and working on light fixtures tomorrow. Waiting for the weather to cool down to paint, as the fumes necessitate opening windows.
@ tgull
I just saw Trump is pulling out of New Hampshire - the 4th whitest state in the Union. Super odd.
I was gonna buy some fireworks up there and lurk a rally. I have a checkered flannel shirt from LL Bean that I’ve never worn.
I’m not sure why he’s quitting. Easier to just ask you than do some boring reading.
These polls mean NOTHING.
The fix is in.
Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...n/75082875007/
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWulJAWW...png&name=small
There are sucker states that campaigns always get suckered into early on. NH for the Republicans and the Texas Dream for the Democrats. Neither one is flipping any time soon and certainly not this decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Assuming Trump holds NC and GA, and he should be fine there, it really does come down to PA. Even though he is likely to carry AZ, it does not matter.
This is 2020..Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullThere are sucker states that campaigns always get suckered into early on. NH for the Republicans and the Texas Dream for the Democrats. Neither one is flipping any time soon and certainly not this decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Assuming Trump holds NC and GA, and he should be fine there, it really does come down to PA. Even though he is likely to carry AZ, it does not matter.
https://x.com/darkjournalist/status/...802112/photo/1
And today might be this..
https://x.com/trumprealparody/status...53596654366724
Garrett,
It might help if you use a current 2024 map with the correct EC votes such as Texas which now has 40 EC as opposed to 38 in 2020. You are looking at a 2020 map, no surprise there though. AZ is not needed if Trump wins PA, GA and NC.
Betting markets now clear Trump 51-48 average and growing.
If Harris has a bad debate, and this format is about the worse for her and the word salads, her support could completely collapse. She literally has a rough time getting through 20 second unscripted answers let alone 90 seconds a pop.
This is the type of bait Party people get excited about, especially on the Democratic side:Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullThere are sucker states that campaigns always get suckered into early on. NH for the Republicans and the Texas Dream for the Democrats. Neither one is flipping any time soon and certainly not this decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Assuming Trump holds NC and GA, and he should be fine there, it really does come down to PA. Even though he is likely to carry AZ, it does not matter.
Friday, September 6
Florida: Trump vs. Harris
The Hill/Emerson
Trump 50, Harris 45
Trump
+5
Texas: Trump vs. Harris
The Hill/Emerson
Trump 50, Harris 46
Trump
+4
Emerson two weeks before the 2020 election had Biden slightly ahead in Florida and slightly behind in Texas. Both states were blow out wins for Trump. Republicans can be awful on this as well, they traditionally spend way too much time in New Hampshire and Nevada for that matter. You will watch the MSM go orgasmic the next few days, saying Texas is in Play!!! They always lose the state by 8-11 points.
Here is Mark Halperin, MSNBC Trump hater who was fired for sexual embarrassment last year, que up to 3:55 mark for PA comments.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4L0YKi6vdl0&t=234s
From Nate Silver:
Swing States: chance of winning Pennsylvania - �� Trump 62-38% Michigan - �� Trump 52-48% Wisconsin - �� Trump 52-48% Arizona - �� Trump 75-25% North Carolina - �� Trump 74-26% Georgia - �� Trump 67-33% Nevada - �� Trump 59-41%
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/183...7165307#Latest
Flipping?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullThere are sucker states that campaigns always get suckered into early on. NH for the Republicans and the Texas Dream for the Democrats. Neither one is flipping any time soon and certainly not this decade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Assuming Trump holds NC and GA, and he should be fine there, it really does come down to PA. Even though he is likely to carry AZ, it does not matter.
NH has a Republican Governor
It is the 4th whitest state.
NH license plate reads “Live Free or Die”. It has a strong Libertarian streak. NH would rather die than pay state tax to the gubmint
NH is one of the most educated populations with about the 10th highest average income.
That is not fertile ground for Trump? You have to admit it’s interesting.
I would have to look it up, but Trump denied pulling out of New Hampshire himself for sure. Looks like what happened is the internet questioning why Kamala and co. were campaigning there so they found some quote from a staffer in Massachusetts and ran with it for a bunch of attack articles. Typical Democrat PR MO.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarFlipping?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
NH has a Republican Governor
It is the 4th whitest state.
NH license plate reads “Live Free or Die”. It has a strong Libertarian streak. NH would rather die than pay state tax to the gubmint
NH is one of the most educated populations with about the 10th highest average income.
That is not fertile ground for Trump? You have to admit it’s interesting.
"Pathetic" "Sorry" "Shrinking"
Plop, how could you?
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1832741724583530881
This is a disaster for Kamala. This is a huge sample size of likely voters by the allegedly best pollster in the country. Despite being an "A+" poll and the highest rated by many, the have consistently underestimated Trump in state and national polling. In 2020 they had Biden winning by 9 in their final poll. Polling errors are overwhelmingly likely to still be in the favor of Trump due to the difficulty of getting the voters that only come out to vote for him to respond to polling and the exact opposite problem for libtardian voters. There is no way their margin of error is more than the 4+ points she would need to have any real chance.
Sunday, September 8
National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Harris 47, Trump 48
Trump +1
National: Multi-Candidate NY Times/Siena
Harris 45, Trump 47, Kennedy , Oliver 2, Stein 1, West
Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris CBS News
Trump 50, Harris 50
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris CBS News
Harris 50, Trump 49
Harris +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris CBS News
Harris 51, Trump 49
Harris +2
Keep in mind, the week before the election, ABC Poll had Biden up in Wisconsin by 17 points. Yes, 17. Biden won by less than 1%. If you don't think that was an orchestrated event by ABC I really don't know what to tell you. And they are running the debate. If you don't think Harris has the questions in the debate, here again I don't know what to tell you. But I do have a Multi Level Marketing Opportunity to share with you.
i think 3% is the number 4% is a little rich, I've done a deep dive in the numbers. I am waiting for the debate to make a large bet (for me), 5 figures. I believe Harris will bomb given the format of having to fill up multiple 90 second answers. This is not Hillary Clinton who actually is very smart. This is Kamala Harris who really is a sack of hammers intellectually. But we will see in two days. But I can't see her performing in this format. There was a reason she was universally rejected in 2019 in the primary and in 2022 Biden called her a work in progress.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
-1 in the poll and and 4 point margin of error off = +3 is what I meant. 3 is the minimum. It will probably end up being more though.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgulli think 3% is the number 4% is a little rich, I've done a deep dive in the numbers. I am waiting for the debate to make a large bet (for me), 5 figures. I believe Harris will bomb given the format of having to fill up multiple 90 second answers. This is not Hillary Clinton who actually is very smart. This is Kamala Harris who really is a sack of hammers intellectually. But we will see in two days. But I can't see her performing in this format. There was a reason she was universally rejected in 2019 in the primary and in 2022 Biden called her a work in progress.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Voting polls mean NOTHING.
Nate Silver predicted a Hillary Clinton victory.
bro he has no chance like 900000 illegals in swing states got this
also is voting gay?
Voting is certainly a waste of time….so mostly gay.
Nate needs clicks too just like everyone else huckstering online.
Nate Silver is not in the clickbait world. He posts probabilities, which in their essence are never wrong. Snake Eyes in craps comes up 3% of the time. So if you roll it your first dice roll, its not like it was wrong. Nate simply gives probabilities. Look I don't expect 98% of the people on this forum to understand this, I am just telling you he is not wrong or right. Here again this will fly over the head on just about everyone here and I would lose people in the first paragraph if I tried to explain it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
Can I quote you next time I’m coaching at the special Olympics?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullNate Silver is not in the clickbait world. He posts probabilities, which in their essence are never wrong. Snake Eyes in craps comes up 3% of the time. So if you roll it your first dice roll, its not like it was wrong. Nate simply gives probabilities. Look I don't expect 98% of the people on this forum to understand this, I am just telling you he is not wrong or right. Here again this will fly over the head on just about everyone here and I would lose people in the first paragraph if I tried to explain it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
"The bump came partially as a result of Sunday's New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver's newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris's 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state."
Hey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Honestly question, for someone as rich, educated and successful in life as you are, why are you a flaming liberal? Seems all of their policies go against your best interests.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiHey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
When I see someone like you with these thoughts I instantly think it’s a superiority complex that you (not just you, successful libs in general) feel others can’t succeed like you did.
Liberal policies of always trying to even stuff up and punish success have never worked but they still get traction with certain people filled with envy of others. When the reality is anyone of sound mind and physical body can become successful in America through hard work and good life choices. Yea I know, that’s a HUGE issue.
The Boz: All polls are worthless until after tomorrow night when the media goes into overdrive saying how she destroyed Trump.
I made 7x off the last debate so I recognize I might be chasing the endorphins.
Trump has fallen to +200 to win debate from +170 a few days ago. I don’t see Kamala dropping out of the race but 2:1 seems like value.
Haven’t pushed the button but I’m close
Also…. I have NEVER been a fan of Nate Silver. I’ll find posts from 10 years ago to that effect. He was early days analytics which I do give a nod to but he was a better writer. He was Bill James of his time. We don’t follow either now.
Nate Silver was actually a very clever and entertaining guy and he parlayed that entertainment into becoming a NY Times and then a Disney/ESPN product. NY Times begged him to stay as he generated clicks like few others
I shot a 30 on the front 9 of this course today from the blues. I just wanted to brag. Hit every putt. My playing partner had an appointment. I thought about playing solo but just figured it could only go downhill
https://course.bluegolf.com/bluegolf...dscorecard.htm
You carry your own bag?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
No I did not. 2 miller lites. 1 Tylenol, and I have played this course for 38, years, never even close to that score. Obviously a lot of luck involved and the ball ran today. Way drier than normal, but I have no idea where it came from. Pin placements were super fair. I’d walk up to every 25 footer and think I can make this. And I just kept making them.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou carry your own bag?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
He has a very real family and also real career and portfolio to tend to before regurgitating polling from blue check Russian bots.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiHey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I'll be contacting him soon as I'm looking to hedge my Trump position a bit; should be an easy escrow with Druff and a chance for him to stick it to his doubters.
Um, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.Quote:
Originally Posted by JayjamiHey Tgal, what takes you longer in the morning? Doing your makeup or finding a poll that confirms your bias?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.
I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.
I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullUm, Nate Silver is about as liberal as they get, and his probability index just updated was based on the most liberal newspaper poll in the nation, the New York Times.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayjami
She is behind, the betting markets validate it now by a pretty wide margin.
I will concede the fact that if Harris "wins the debate" Trump is in trouble. But I do not think she will. She is a word salad machine and will be completely unable to fill up 90 second answers. The media is already downplaying her chances, saying Trump will be on his 7th debate for President and this will be the first. This leads me to believe she is bombing in her debate prep, and it's leaked already.
I am going to give credit where credit is due with this line from the legendary 408Mike who called out poster "Chris": spectacular fail
She is word salad.
I have to say it’s amazing what charisma can do because no one has ever been word salad like Trump, yet he gets a pass. Reading Trump answers in written form is basically like trying to decipher the Gettysburg address written in sanskrit. It never makes an ounce of sense, but he sells absolute gibberish with confidence.
He’s also getting worse. I fully expect him to win, but god lord we are going to have another Biden situation topping 80 soon.
If he had to debate anyone good he’d be in a precarious spot. But she isn’t good even in scripted sit downs.
Agree; Kamala against anyone of serious intellect would be a disaster. Against Trump forming sentences will suffice, which she'll do.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
She is word salad.
I have to say it’s amazing what charisma can do because no one has ever been word salad like Trump, yet he gets a pass. Reading Trump answers in written form is basically like trying to decipher the Gettysburg address written in sanskrit. It never makes an ounce of sense, but he sells absolute gibberish with confidence.
He’s also getting worse. I fully expect him to win, but god lord we are going to have another Biden situation topping 80 soon.
If he had to debate anyone good he’d be in a precarious spot. But she isn’t good even in scripted sit downs.
Most outcomes won't move the needle much at all, unless Trump gets triggered and is more unhinged than normal or the drug cocktail is off.
95% of Americans reflect the general make up of this board, poor and retarded.
Finally, I am glad you came over to our side. I know you live in border state Ohio, but are you available to do some door knocking in Southwest Pennsylvania leading up the election? Washington PA area. You will organize a team and yes, you will get meals paid for, we have connections with some local restaurants. Interested?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I fully expect him to win
Welcome aboard my friend.
Is this thread a love letter cause we have Trump Train.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullFinally, I am glad you came over to our side. I know you live in border state Ohio, but are you available to do some door knocking in Southwest Pennsylvania leading up the election? Washington PA area. You will organize a team and yes, you will get meals paid for, we have connections with some local restaurants. Interested?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Welcome aboard my friend.