----> Hurricane SANDY. Possible catastrophe for New York City and Boston! <-----

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10-28-2012, 10:19 AM
RobbieBensonFan

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmoney

When does this bad boy hit land?

Monday night right around Atlantic City or just to the North.

Sandy is stating to close the inner core so the storm could actually become larger. Surge is going to be a huge issue as Sandy is coming on shore right near high tide with a full moon. A full moon adds about 9" of surge which does not sound like much, until you take into consideration Irene was a foot away from flooding the subway system in New York

Here is the swath of real estate Sandy is going to affect:

CoreLogic’s latest report:

The data shows nearly 284,000 total residential properties valued at almost $88 billion at risk for potential storm-surge damage among the coastal Mid-Atlantic states, assuming the storm hits the coast as a Category 1 hurricane. Within that region, more than 238,000 total properties valued at nearly $75 billion stand at risk in eight major metro areas from Virginia to New England.

The greatest financial exposure it to residences within the State of New York where value of potential properties which could be potentially damaged is just above $35 billion. Next comes New Jersey at $22 million

The greatest metro area risk in the the New York City-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA with the CoreLogic estimate at over $48 billion.

Will be interesting to see how this affects the election as power outages Wednesday and Thursday morning will likely be in the 10s of Millions. Places as far as way as Pittsburgh will be impacted.

To put the storm size in perspective, snow is now falling from Sandy. In Kentucky.
10-28-2012, 10:24 AM
sonatine

Bloomberg just ordered the evacuation of some downtown Manhattan neighborhood, probably Battery Park. Thats actually pretty amazing.
10-28-2012, 10:33 AM
BetCheckBet

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmoney

When does this bad boy hit land?

Monday night right around Atlantic City or just to the North.

Sandy is stating to close the inner core so the storm could actually become larger. Surge is going to be a huge issue as Sandy is coming on shore right near high tide with a full moon. A full moon adds about 9" of surge which does not sound like much, until you take into consideration Irene was a foot away from flooding the subway system in New York

Here is the swath of real estate Sandy is going to affect:

CoreLogic’s latest report:

The data shows nearly 284,000 total residential properties valued at almost $88 billion at risk for potential storm-surge damage among the coastal Mid-Atlantic states, assuming the storm hits the coast as a Category 1 hurricane. Within that region, more than 238,000 total properties valued at nearly $75 billion stand at risk in eight major metro areas from Virginia to New England.

The greatest financial exposure it to residences within the State of New York where value of potential properties which could be potentially damaged is just above $35 billion. Next comes New Jersey at $22 million

The greatest metro area risk in the the New York City-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA with the CoreLogic estimate at over $48 billion.

Will be interesting to see how this affects the election as power outages Wednesday and Thursday morning will likely be in the 10s of Millions. Places as far as way as Pittsburgh will be impacted.

To put the storm size in perspective, snow is now falling from Sandy. In Kentucky.

Definitely interesting to follow as prediction sbecoming much more dire. The elction implications are particularly interesting. Disasters like this traditionally hurt incumbents but this could hurt rural strong pockets for romney at the same time
10-28-2012, 10:46 AM
sonatine

God I totally forgot how badly Irene fucked people up in Manhattan, I must admit. Like I see the words "flood damage" but have remind myself that the toxic brew that constitutes lower Manhattan flood water would use the rotten-corpse-and-snake-soup that Katrina created for mouth wash.
10-28-2012, 11:01 AM
Muck Ficon

No matter what happens I'm blaming Bush for this.
10-28-2012, 11:07 AM
RobbieBensonFan

There are three massive differences between Sandy and Irene.

1) Irene basically collapsed and weakened right before landfall. Sandy by all accounts getting stronger. She will pass over the Gulfstream where waters are much warmer than they are now. Keep in mind Irene did $15B in damage

2) The trajectory. Irene came in from the due South. This will be coming from east to west. There is no historical basis to evaluate Sandy on, because there really has never been a storm this size come from the East this far north. Nobody knows what impact is going to be say in the LI Sound with the surge

3) Trees. Right now the leaves on the trees are basically dead. The weight of the rain fall will cause branhes to collapse causing massive power outages of hundreds of miles. With temps in a lot of the Northeast dropping into the 30s each night now, that is going to be a big problem

Here is the best satellite on Sandy. You can see how huge and how it appears to be getting more organized. The trip over the Gulf Stream will be interesting.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/temp..._to_display=50
10-28-2012, 11:17 AM
sonatine

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muck Ficon

No matter what happens I'm blaming the Jews for this.

:sftrue
10-28-2012, 11:28 AM
4Dragons

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan

There are three massive differences between Sandy and Irene.

1) Irene basically collapsed and weakened right before landfall. Sandy by all accounts getting stronger. She will pass over the Gulfstream where waters are much warmer than they are now. Keep in mind Irene did $15B in damage

2) The trajectory. Irene came in from the due South. This will be coming from east to west. There is no historical basis to evaluate Sandy on, because there really has never been a storm this size come from the East this far north. Nobody knows what impact is going to be say in the LI Sound with the surge

3) Trees. Right now the leaves on the trees are basically dead. The weight of the rain fall will cause branhes to collapse causing massive power outages of hundreds of miles. With temps in a lot of the Northeast dropping into the 30s each night now, that is going to be a big problem

Here is the best satellite on Sandy. You can see how huge and how it appears to be getting more organized. The trip over the Gulf Stream will be interesting.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/temp..._to_display=50

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOWK7Tam01M
10-28-2012, 01:37 PM
mulva

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muck Ficon

No matter what happens I'm blaming Bush for this.

i like the way you think, kid. but aaron rodgers is still a faggot, that makes faggot commercials
10-28-2012, 02:14 PM
RobbieBensonFan

Here are some pretty dire maps from Crown Weather:

http://crownweather.com/?page_id=4557
10-28-2012, 02:25 PM
NaturalBornHustler

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieBensonFan

Here are some pretty dire maps from Crown Weather:

http://crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

10-11 foot storm surge??

Oh yeah New York is fucked.
10-28-2012, 02:56 PM
tony bagadonuts

I've gotta hand it to bottomset, he broke this story as far as I'm concerned (at least to me) and his prognostication is unfortunately starting to look portentous.

Still time for the storm to peter out and I hope it does obv.
10-28-2012, 03:37 PM
Anal_Hershiser

Quote:

Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts

and his prognostication is unfortunately starting to look portentous.

Have you been taking writing lessons from 4PoeSteaks?
10-28-2012, 03:45 PM
NaturalBornHustler

587
WHUS41 KOKX 281948 CCA
CFWOKX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-290130-
/O.COR.KOKX.CF.W.0003.121029T1000Z-121030T1900Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
129 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
3 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG NEW YORK HARBOR...NEWARK BAY...THE ARTHUR
KILL...THE TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE HACKENSACK AND
PASSAIC RIVERS...LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SHORES OF LONG ISLAND...AND TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES...3 TO 4.5
FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES MONDAY MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6
TO 11 FT ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END
OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO THE NEW YORK HARBOR...WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS.

* HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION...BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES BY LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ON TOP OF THE
STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE NEAREST TO SEA LEVEL. AT THE SAME TIME...5 TO 10
FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND...PECONIC BAY...AND NEW
YORK HARBOR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE FELT FOR FIRE ISLAND
COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FAIR HARBOR...OCEAN BEACH...CHERRY
GROVE...FIRE ISLAND PINES AND DAVIS PARK.

* TIMING...MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY
WITH THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY BY THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING...POSSIBLY TO RECORD LEVELS...IS LIKELY
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IN POSSIBLE INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES CYCLE.

* IMPACTS...A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH
MINOR COASTAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON MONDAY...WITH
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL STORM
WILL DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES...BUT THE POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING FOR SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION AND DAMAGE TO
STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

..NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY MORNING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

THE BATTERY NYC.....831 AM.........8.7.............MODERATE..
BERGEN POINT NY.....830 AM.........9.2.............MODERATE..

..WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

KINGS POINT NY......1159 AM........12.2............MODERATE..
LATTINGTOWN NY......1158 AM........12.3............MODERATE..
STAMFORD CT.........1131 AM........12.3............MODERATE..
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1128 AM........12.7............MODERATE..
NEW HAVEN CT........1128 AM........10.3............MODERATE..

..EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

NEW LONDON CT.......928 AM.........6.3.............MODERATE..

..SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
.................................(MLLW/NGVD).................

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY.814 AM.........7.5/6.0.........MODERATE..
FREEPORT GAGE NY....858 AM.........6.9/6.1.........MAJOR.....
JAMAICA BAY NY......840 AM.........9.2/7.0.........MODERATE..
POINT LOOKOUT.......741 AM.........7.6/6.5.........MODERATE..

..OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR MON MORNING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

MONTAUK POINT NY....903 AM.........6.0.............MODERATE..

..NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........11.7.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12.3.............MAJOR....

..WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........16.6.............MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........16.7.............MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........16.4.............MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........15.9.............MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........15.3.............MAJOR....

..EASTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

NEW LONDON CT.......952 PM..........10.0.............MAJOR....

..SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
.................................(MLLW/NGVD).................

E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..814 PM.........11.3/9.8.........MAJOR...
FREEPORT GAGE NY.....858 PM.........10.6/9.8.........MAJOR...
JAMAICA BAY NY.......900 PM.........11.6/9.4.........MAJOR...
POINT LOOKOUT........801 PM.........11.0/7.0.........MAJOR...

..OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR MON EVENING

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
..................................(MLLW).......... .......

MONTAUK POINT NY....102 AM..........8.5...............MAJOR...
10-28-2012, 03:59 PM
superallah

can't wait for the southpark episode on this one.
10-28-2012, 04:07 PM
4Dragons

1 Attachment(s)

To me it looks like someone drew a spline curve in adobe illustrator. Just in time to suspend elections. Alex Jones' head will asplode.
10-28-2012, 04:18 PM
abrown83

I am going to laugh if this thing takes an outlier model and just heads out into the Atlantic.
10-28-2012, 04:20 PM
408Mike

Quote:

Originally Posted by sonatine

God I totally forgot how badly Irene fucked people up in Manhattan, I must admit. Like I see the words "flood damage" but have remind myself that the toxic brew that constitutes lower Manhattan flood water would use the rotten-corpse-and-snake-soup that Katrina created for mouth wash.

Honestly you seem so calm, it's just weird to me. Like where's the panic in your voice? You never break composure, do you live in a fortified storm proof apartment above it all or are you secretly really living in Arizona?

I'm betting you really live here and are just showboating with bottomset trying to front like you're brave when really you are posting from your jacuzzi.

I'd take the spot in Sicily myself.
10-28-2012, 04:54 PM
NaturalBornHustler

Quote:

Originally Posted by abrown83

I am going to laugh if this thing takes an outlier model and just heads out into the Atlantic.

There are no such models.

Only thing in doubt is where it hits on Jersey Shore.
10-28-2012, 05:54 PM
abrown83

Quote:

Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

Quote:

Originally Posted by abrown83

I am going to laugh if this thing takes an outlier model and just heads out into the Atlantic.

There are no such models.

Only thing in doubt is where it hits on Jersey Shore.

http://crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Scroll down to Model Track Forecast.

It most likely will pound the East Coast (specifically DC to Boston), but to say that it is 100% for sure is inaccurate.

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