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The best part was Vonleh checks in for defensive purposes and rather than boxing out the shooter ends up boxing out Dieng leaving the lane wide open. Simply amazing highlightsQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
that de'aaron fox free throw miss on purpose down 2 was a thing of beauty...Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
saw you posted about MEM, san...
was looking at them as well...-1 +104 for me..
I know it’s all Aussie open talk all the time now but it is remarkable that the Super Bowl
Odds haven’t moved an inch so far.
Fun fact: the last five Super Bowls have featured three games with a 1q shutout. 22 points scored total.
Think most folks remember a lot of 2h scoring in these games.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
so you are going under. any thoughts on the sides?
It’s a stock pickers game. I have no idea. I lean SF but that’s hardly a Conviction recommendation.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
so you are going under. any thoughts on the sides?
Huge huge $$ on the over. They can’t find under money although the books have claimed they got professional money at 55.
NY at Charlotte - Under 207.5
Atlanta at Toronto - Over 234.5
Atlanta's score was 152-133 yesterday, and they've had a total of 239+ in 6 of last 7 games.
Charlotte has scored 92 or fewer in 4 of last 6 games, NY has scored 92 or fewer in 3 of last 6 games.
Sabres moneyline -200
Under 1.5 first period +110
Made me feel square to bet based upon recent scores, but these two were begging for it. And somehow most of the money went on the Knicks over anyway.
Atlanta is playing no defense, and the Knicks/Hornets both aren't scoring. Just seemed too obvious.
NY under doing well so far.
Fun fact:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Another 1Q blowout 31-18
We are 4-0 on 1Q
Thanks for playing
Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP
I'm missing something.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarFun fact:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Another 1Q blowout 31-18
We are 4-0 on 1Q
Thanks for playing
Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP
Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.
I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.
been looking, can't fucking find anything and that site hasn't updated anything...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarFun fact:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Another 1Q blowout 31-18
We are 4-0 on 1Q
Thanks for playing
Seriously. If you have fresh numbers I’ll take em GBCP
will check and see if I can get any updated stats tonight...
It was in the Australian Open post today. I think only GBCP was following so....Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'm missing something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.
I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.
It was in the Australian Open post today. I think only GBCP was collaborating so....Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'm missing something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Did you post today's 1Q bet? I don't see it anywhere.
I am getting fascinated by the Sanlmar 1Q system.
Poor 4Bet isn't around today to tail my picks, which he unfortunately did yesterday when we had that massive screwjob.
The Charlotte under is a lock barring 2OT, and the Toronto over is on pace to win after the first half, but not by any means a lock.
But still I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.
It's actually been pretty consistent this year when two low-scoring teams play each other that the under hits. You might want to watch for that. Some sharps were mashing the over on the Knicks today, but I just couldn't see it.
Edit: Wow, 2 mins with no scoring to start the 3rd in Toronto. Ouch. Can't have that on a 234.5 over.
aight san, this is the best I can find...doesnt give a full year, but seems to give near term trends...
I went 2-0 tonight, including that Toronto over, despite the stat in the post above showing that Toronto went under in 1H in past 8 contests.
1H tonight was 124, and the line was 120, so that went over, and that bet would have lost.
Looking at all the games listed above:
MEM 1Q -0.5 W
MIA 1Q -0.5 L
DAL 1Q O56 L
GSW 1Q U55 W
MIL 1Q U61.5 L
ATL 1Q U60 W
CHA 1H -0.5 L
TOR 1H U120 L
PHO 1H U112 L
CLE 1H O118 W
So 4-6 was the record. Just one day, so that means little, but this was far from magic.
Props to San for grabbing one of the 4 winners posted there, and ignoring the others, which went 3-6.
In general I don't like handicapping solely from the standpoint of "such-and-such happened ATS in the last X games", because each game is different, and a lot of these trends are just the result of random distribution.
I think it's more useful to look at the basic trend with the team in general -- such as whether they've been playing defense, a fast paced game, shooting well, etc. Have they been playing well in general lately, or poorly? ATS isn't as important. It's worth looking at, but some place far too high of a value on it.
for super bowl dfs on DK cash, i cant decide on spending high on the chiefs stack with tyreek + kelce, or spreading between mostert+kittle+watkins?
Thoughts?
ill stay outta the way of giving showdown tournament advice cause that's not my thing...Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
only thing ill say is make sure that whatever team you build tells a coherent "story"...be really, really fucking right or really, really fucking wrong...
Figures you pick 2 winners and I win 0.0, Seen your picks just after 1st game started, So didn't bet anything, I should have still fired on atl/tor but passed and went to sleep early, Glad you had good day anyhowQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Nobody is making decisions solely based on ATS.
GBCP had given me some data from Pointsbet that was sweet. I’ll look at anything. Today he sent me some ATS publicly. Whatever.
I think there is an advantage to breaking a game into small increments.
Every day a team starts with the score 0-0. Some teams have a pretty consistent approach from the starter gun. Some start slow. Some quick, example. How will they match up. Give me the worst vs best ideally. Punt on stuff too close to call.
If a game is a book the introduction may be consistent but the plot and resolution harder to envision and often never the same.
MEM 1Q again GBCP? I haven’t dug too deep and as always who da fuck is playing?
If you or Druff wanna look. I got other stuff
I can get behind that one...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
i'll offer up these for your perusal:
DET +2.5 -118
CHI/IND U 54 -110
Leafs -105 ml
Leafs over 6
Oilers -125
Vancouver/SJ under 6
Washington -1.5 +160
Wash over 6.5 -105
san another one for you...
DK odds boost of the day...IND/PENN ST O 51 CBB...
max bet $50...I mean now they're moving into the 'that's a damn nice little freebie'...
I'll look at 1Q Memphis later.
For now I have this one on the same game:
Memphis at NY - Under 221.5
Staying on the NY under train.
I posted at 3:00 am but I took down +250 fading Nadal pregame. Also nailed the total over
Heard something interesting I’ll pass along.
since 2003 when the total is 50 or higher in the Super Bowl the under is 4-1.
Last year's Patriots-Rams total was 55.5 and New England won 13-3.
In only 12% of Super Bowls does the spread matter. Pick a favorite and get value with an alternate line. Maybe 5 or 6 or 7 here
I have no handicap. This idea might prompt me to try harder.
In u222, If this loses i am gonna think i am a jinx like tellatubbyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Fired WSH/NSH o6.5 -105
Might do the SJ under when it gets closer. Still on the fence there.
GL simp & everyone else
Great over pick on Washington, simp. 5 first period goals. LOL
I'm not thrilled with my NY under after 1Q (64 points), but it's slowed down a bit in the 2nd. The Knicks can go on huge scoring droughts, such as this quarter where they have 2 points in the first 3:12.
If anyone has a myb00kie.ag account Gay couple inna comercial is -240 but it’s confirmed ellen and her wife are in one.
We are done in this one, Two sorry teams scored 64 in the first and 69 in the 3q to seal our fateQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Well thanks to simp, I got even for the day, with that Washington over, the sole pick I went with.
I saw he went 3-3 overall.
Getting nowhere betting NBA/NHL so going back to making 3-5 big bets a year on football, Next up all the money is going on the 49ers atm +1 1/2
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
Yeah, sure 4BetsDown, I'm the unlucky one. Lullz.
2-1 on the Q1s yesterday...
on today's plate we have:
PHL -2.5 v ATL -108
UTH +1 v DEN +104...
EDIT: sorry the UTH side is +104 here...
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BET
I say this to myself last week as I don't want to give back to the book, then I get a tip on best director for best director and fire Immediately... Juice on the bet has gone from -250 to - 800ish so I got that going for me but I get sick of the whole thing. I do t give a shit about sports at all and I hardly care about poker... Need something new
Purple Gatorade getting steamed down as low as +120
Kobe Tribute
I have +150. Sigh. Thinking
It was +900 originally. Jeez. Preoccupied with tennis Daly?
DEMI LOVATO LENGTH OF US NATIONAL ANTHEM - OVER 2 MINUTES 3 SECONDS -175
I did this. Watched all performances... she is no Billie Eilish but she’s amazing.
I am not a props guy but I now have more on props than game ($0)
Leaning under
You are welcome PFAQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly