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John Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forum Wars
i feel like ive said this before but please dont trust china numbers. at all. on anything. 100.
There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.
But we'll never know.
Acoording to the figures there is less then 10k active cases in China. 70k have recovered.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogJohn Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.
But we'll never know.
Agree, I reckon the initial figures are at least double.
Yeah, they're not real. But they are controlling this, that is real.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogJohn Hopkins map says we're about to crack 200k total cases with 81k being China.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
There is literally 0.1% chance that China 81k is correct. I would be everything I got on over 150k at -1000.
But we'll never know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Forum WarsYeah, they're not real. But they are controlling this, that is real.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.
like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.
And this is why Bernie Bros are Bernie Bros.Quote:
Originally Posted by GrenadaRoger
In TX it is far more than 18%. Today, gyms, bars, restaurants, cardrooms, all shut down. I went to cancel my personal trainer but they locked the doors before their shutdown time of 5pm.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Lots of family units and kids to pass this thing around. I mean how do schools go back to normal if there is no vaccine. Then it gets passed to their parents and then up the chain to the grandparents. Kids can't keep from infecting each other.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I don't think this thing was widespread. If it had been, we'd have more of those places like WA where 19 patients died of CV. Although maybe there are other places like this where no one was test. It is entirely possible we're quite infected, but I don't think so because just not enough people in hospitals. I flew Monday 8 days ago and thought there was a low chance of catching it.
Worst part is we have no idea how many people are asymptomatic. We know they exist but have literally 0 clue. I don't even know if they can test for antibodies to see if people had it in the past.
Westerners just aren't suited to being locked - down. I'm not sure it can be done here or in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Forum Wars
yeah but their version of control is something our society isnt wired for. they sealed off a whole fucking province the size of washington state and just.. let it burn out. anyone who complained vanished.
like i dont see a middle ground for us; either this totally nothingburgers because white people just arent susceptible to it or we are talking about a nation-wide lockdown police state with the occasional food riots.
Most folks understand the situation and would be willing to self isolate at the very least. But thousands will not.
What remains to be seen is does the virus peek again in China and South Korea once they relax the quarantine.
Also the warmer weather doesn't appear to really help. Trump saying it will disappear like the seasonal flu with summer approaching is likely not true. Rampant in summer temp all over the world.
contrast the rather optimistic tone of that article with the one just published by the Washington PostQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I suspect in the next few days you will start to see many more of these articles.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp
very dismal times ahead forecast
and it seems UK & US is believes in the predictions of the English modelers rather than the one from Israel...
-105 Israel manufactured this
That's it? I'm gonna buy a few Billion worth.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
And eat meat you stupid fucker it's good for you as is cheese
fabricated? Only a complete moron would say something so fucking stupid
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty_AusWesterners just aren't suited to being locked - down. I'm not sure it can be done here or in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Most folks understand the situation and would be willing to self isolate at the very least. But thousands will not.
What remains to be seen is does the virus peek again in China and South Korea once they relax the quarantine.
Also the warmer weather doesn't appear to really help. Trump saying it will disappear like the seasonal flu with summer approaching is likely not true. Rampant in summer temp all over the world.
the fact that it absolutely flourished in bangkok tells you everything you need to know about his warm weather theory.
I can't believe there are people like bottomset who think this is all made up media bullshit
The fat fucking sorry excuse for a president that you nitwits worship has even declared a national emergency. A few weeks too late and many more are gonna die now that wouldn't have but whatever right? Until someone you're close with dies who maybe wouldn't have had we had a real president in office. And by real president Im talking bush reagan obama ect.
This maniac claimed a few weeks ago this was just a hoax. How can any you guys who support him still back him? You gotta be straight stupid to still support this clown.
I Wish romney or any other republican who ran in 2016 was president right now. Anyone but this fucking idiot and I would feel a whole hell of a lot better right now about my safety and safety of my friends family and the american public
That really smart people are miles apart makes sense as we truly don’t know anything well enough to model imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by GrenadaRogercontrast the rather optimistic tone of that article with the one just published by the Washington PostQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp
very dismal times ahead forecast
and it seems UK & US is believes in the predictions of the English modelers rather than the one from Israel...
We have China first. We can’t trust their numbers and we will never have the will to suppress it as they did. Then Iran who we can’t trust whatsoever. I bet their numbers are off by a magnitude of 100. Then South Korea who was incredibly proactive in a way that passed us by a month ago.
Italy is the only template of a country that is somewhat similar, yet a decade older in median age, and caught early and unprepared. I trust their death totals completely. But they've been overwhelmed since the jump, so they can’t waste a second testing asymptomatic people. How can you model anything when you have death numbers that are unreliable in most places hit so far and no total cases to calculate the deaths into?
I think it will get nasty in clusters. but I truthfully wouldn’t be shocked by 25- 50k or 500k dead. Or a million. If brilliant number crunchers are miles apart, would you bet your net worth on o/u 150k by end year?
That seems way lower than we can expect. Better than the best case scenario by the English model and most estimates. I wouldn’t feel comfortable taking either side of that number though. Italy sounds like hell on earth atm and yet it’s still only 2500 dead right now. If they aren’t at the peak at all and it ends up 25000, that still wouldn’t tell you a ton as far as we are concerned.
I have no idea and I’ve been watching it for months. Outside Italy, most of Europe is on a similar timeline to us. We are more like those countries than anything hit thus far. We are just so dissimilar to China or Iran or South Korea in every way that I can’t make anything of those countries.
If you died, we'd lose 20% of the accounts here.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullI am being totally serious here, but what do you guestimate the # of PFA posters that will perish in 2020? 20%? Obviously healthy posters are not part of the fabric here. Likely 70% of the posters here eat meat, cheese bread and mayonnaise every day.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
it's like 20 pages long but I will post the first page for everyone to see without clicking the link
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand
Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin,
Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria
Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van
Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker,
Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.
On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London
Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the
most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of
public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing
contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented
here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain
specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely
to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on
transmission.
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily
stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of
severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing
case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major
challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.
We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social
distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family
members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be
recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased
Helpful chart.
I was sneezing tonight so I looked this up. Not corona.
More likely because it's cold in southern CA tonight (30s where I am), and the heater is on, so dust is probably blowing in the air and causing me to sneeze.
Flu and coronavirus have very similar symptoms, though if you have a lot of nasal congestion, it's probably the flu and not corona.
https://intermountainhealthcare.org/...oronavirus.jpg
this morning’s commute in london. I think it’s fair to say that the uk will have a tough time in the coming weeks.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2143QP
Coronavirus can persist in air for hours and on surfaces for days: study
Reuters) - The highly contagious novel coronavirus that has exploded into a global pandemic can remain viable and infectious in droplets in the air for hours and on surfaces up to days, according to a new study that should offer guidance to help people avoid contracting the respiratory illness called COVID-19.
Scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, attempted to mimic the virus deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or touching objects.
They used a device to dispense an aerosol that duplicated the microscopic droplets created in a cough or a sneeze.
The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces, according to the study that appeared online in the New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday - a day in which U.S. COVID-19 cases surged past 5,200 and deaths approached 100.
The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours.
On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days. On cardboard, the virus was not viable after 24 hours. On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated.
In terms of half-life, the research team found that it takes about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet.
That means that after another hour and six minutes, three quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25% will still be viable.
The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5%, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of the NIAID’s Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.
On stainless steel, it takes 5 hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is 6 hours 49 minutes, researchers found.
On cardboard, the half-life was about three and a half hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results “so we advise caution” interpreting that number.
The shortest survival time was on copper, where half the virus became inactivated within 46 minutes.
A scene from the Coronacalypse, Dallas Edition:Quote:
Originally Posted by donkdowndonediedIn TX it is far more than 18%. Today, gyms, bars, restaurants, cardrooms, all shut down. I went to cancel my personal trainer but they locked the doors before their shutdown time of 5pm.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Heading out to buy an elliptical, it’s the only way I will survive this at home.
Because of this we just need to get it and move on or it will drag on and on and on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordman
No, If everyone gets it at once it will create a spike that will overwhelm the healthcare system and many more will die as a result. The precautions we’re currently taking aren’t really to stop the virus but more to slow it down. Pretty much everyone will get this eventually but staggering when people get sick will save lives. You also need to think about the trickle down issues from the hospitals being overwhelmed. Say someone gets in a car accident and needs a ventilator but no hospital can help them. Now that person dies when under normal circumstances they could have saved them. It’s the difference between what’s happening in South Korea impaired to Italy, look at the difference in death rates.Quote:
Originally Posted by splitthisBecause of this we just need to get it and move on or it will drag on and on and on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordman
For everyone who thinks the Italian situation will get worse before it gets better, well, technically yes, there'll be more cases, but it's gonna be like China and end there too.
Today, Wednesday, Israeli Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt said:
"Italy is already half way through the disease," he told Reshet Bet. "There has been a decrease in growth in the number of deaths in Italy in the past 2-3 days.":
Yeah, that's true. And they are probably testing more now, so the true drop in the growth per day there is probably higher. Don't mess with a guy who has mathematical models down.
sick and tired of seeing and hearing from trump and his autistic virus task force
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
His experts seem to be very informed and educated. Especially the short guy.
mini tony fauchi is gucci, but the rest are a dumpster fire esp. pencil dick pence
when they make the movie about this, its going to be about fauci.
Gov. Cuomo announces New York now has 2,382 #COVID19 cases in the state, an increase of 1,008 from Tuesday. 1,339 of the coronavirus cases are in New York City.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Trump briefing incoming...get ready...he will cure this thing (in his own mind). It's obvious to many that this was gonna happen:
WASHINGTON—The White House considered issuing an executive order greatly expanding the use of investigational drugs against the new coronavirus, but was met with objections from Food and Drug Administration scientists who warned it could pose unneeded risks to patients, according to a senior government official.
President Trump tweeted that he is planning a briefing Wednesday that will pertain to the FDA. It couldn’t immediately be determined if that briefing would deal with expanded use of testing drugs against the virus.
My god he's a disaster.
TV and internet streaming providers getting destroyed
this paki broad in the back is tilting me
Druff is this true @ Costco?
Food of the apocalypse. Sonatine and his Antifa friends are going to starve to death. At least some good will come from this. How many of you know how to hunt for your own food? I’m thinking not many.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Druff is this true @ Costco?
Which is why Trump will fire him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Nobody upstages the Trump.
Trump needs him to paint a rosy picture and reassure everyone that everything will be fine.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETBagB3U...jpg&name=small