Scott Van Pelt is going to do a piece on me tonight
Bruins 4-0 now 4-4 OT. Bruins big ML favorite.
Then he’ll cover Kentucky
No, I don’t own a gun
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Scott Van Pelt is going to do a piece on me tonight
Bruins 4-0 now 4-4 OT. Bruins big ML favorite.
Then he’ll cover Kentucky
No, I don’t own a gun
Not sure if it was mentioned on here but I noticed recently the max cashout out with bitcoin on Bovada and Ignition has been increased to 20k per 3 days compared to the 9.5k they had before.
They still have a very sharp max cap per sports bets relatively low compared to other books that they cut winners limits significantly and as for poker they ruined most cash games with their silly idea to hide the ones running.
If they get in I would be too. Problem is the current poll doesn’t take into consideration the games of the next few weeks. Bama May be #5 at the moment but they have no path to jump ahead of anyone in front of them and there are two different teams/conferences that may jump ahead of them. Simply put Bama need mass chaos to happen for them to get in.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Shit happens every year but rationally the only two regular season games that matter is OSU Penn St and OSU Mich (Obviously a loss by LSU, clemson or Utah/Ore would also change things, just not chalk to happen).
At this point it’s fair to say Clemson is in baring a miracle.
Politically I think it’s fair to say the 12-1 winner of the pac 10 is in (Utah or Oregon). The committee “can’t” fuck the pac 10 this year. They could walk out over it.
The Big 12 is >90% out. Baylor is undefeated and ranked behind OU. That’s what the committee thinks about them. They are 10 point dogs this week. If they manage to win out with two wins vs OU and one vs Texas they would be in. Only path for a big 12 team and I say it’s very very unlikely
Minnesota is the Baylor that matters. If they win out and beat OSU they have to make it. Undefeated big 10 team makes it 100% of the time. A undefeated OSU team might be the #1 seed. The real question here is what happens if OSU beats Penn st and Mich and takes its first loss to Minny? Two teams from big 10 is possible? 1 loss OSU team is in front of Bama. 1 loss ninny team isn’t.
I think LSU is in, even a 1 loss one so long as they fell to Georgia.... but maybe not if nobody falls above. If Georgia beats LSU they have to be in.
So in conclusion “teams” in front of Bama at the moment
Clemson
Ohio state undefeated
Minnesota undefeated
Utah/Oregon with 1 loss
Undefeated Baylor (not likely)
Georgia with 1 loss
LSU undefeated
LSU with one loss
Teams probably in front of Bama
Ohio st with 1 loss
Bama in front of
Penn st with 1 loss
Pac 10 champ with 2 losses
Minny with 1 loss
Point being a lot needs to happen for Bama to make it.
freaky how you kinda hit most of my points daly...
i think CLEM/LSU are "locks"...LSU would have to lose pre SEC championship game or get throttled by UGA...don't see either happening...CLEM loss they're out, but don't see them losing to SCAR or in the ACC championship game...
OSU without chase young is a little dicey...still think they're gonna win out, but the MICH game becomes a little more up in the air...if any of the top 3 lose it's most likely them...
i'm more bearish on the PAC12...Oregon doesn't have any marquee wins (will agree neither does BAMA) and I think if BAMA beats AUB in the iron bowl then you have a little quandary there...I totally feel you on leaving the PAC12 out this year...I don't know what else the PAC12 does...yeah they can "walk", but what's their other option? think the only way this works is if the PAC12/BIG12 threaten to leave...that's a little more of an issue...
agree on BIG12...rhule has done a fucking helluva job, but im gonna be stunned if they beat OU...just not enough fire power on O and too much from OU...
gonna marinate on this one, but thanks for laying all that shit out..
Now:
Orlando -2.5 vs. Philadelphia (Embiid out)
Later:
San Antonio +1.5 -105 at Minnesota
As far as Alabama's odds go, in the words of RJ Bell "it is all just jibber jabber unless you are willing to make a bet."
So lets look at the numbers. I google searched and BetOnline has Alabama +250 to make the playoffs (None of the books I have access to have lines for this, so I don't know if this is a market consensus line). So, I am guessing their true odds are probably +200 after juice.
Then most likely scenario they will have to go through LSU/Ohio St or LSU/Clemson
Lets say they are even money in each playoff game (I really dont know) then the odds of them winning it all are ~ +1100.
Looks like +1200 is actually +EV, especially considering them being even money in both games if they get there is very unrealistic, and if there is an upset along the way they might actually be a very big favorite in at least 1 game.
FWIW, I looked at Bookmaker and they have Alabama +850.
I hopped on late, live bet SA ML at +180 when down 8Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
also grabbed LAC at +9.5 halfway through the 1st q there
anybody out there with NHL 1st period expertise know if Vegas over 1.5 at -155 juice is a good bet tonight??
SA was looking excellent when they erased the deficit, took a 1-point lead, and had the momentum. Now not so much. Still plenty of time though.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI hopped on late, live bet SA ML at +180 when down 8Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
also grabbed LAC at +9.5 halfway through the 1st q there
I'm throwing one more on the pile, which I've been considering all day.
Golden State at Lakers - Under 219
Through 1QQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not so fast. 1Q was 64 points, which wasn't what I wanted to see, but not devastating, especially seeing that scoring was starting to slow down.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardThrough 1QQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Also it's a blowout so far, which will reduce 4Q scoring.
If the first half can finish with 115 points or fewer, we aren't in bad shape.
Okay, now I'm ready to wave the white fag. 180 points after 3. Yuck. Should've stayed away since I was on the fence anyway about this one.
Damn, Druff. Saved by 34 point Q.
I watched the whole game cause I had some daily fantasy interests. Warriors are brutal now. I had a Warriors U48 win total that is going to easily win, which is nice. But this is real, real bad.
Yeah actually stopped watching in frustration, then I turn it on with 35 seconds left and am like, "Oh wow.. I'm going to win!"
I knew there was a small chance of a freak sub-40 4th, but 34 points is just lol.
Oh well... I'll take it.
You're gonna do what now?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
My best strategy last year for the second half of NCAAF was the auto fade of teams that gave up and auto backing of ATS powerhouses (Louisville + Tennessee & Bama).
Easy to say after the past two days but the same is shaping up (Akron, BG, USF & LSU, Cincinatti, Navy)
So I should be backing up the $$ truck on Ohio St -52.5?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
But yeah, books are definitely aware this is going on and some of these lines are insane against the bad teams. Northweser -41? That is more points than their last 5 games combined. LOL.
Two public sides today.
Posting early.
Don't get shut out.
Atlanta at Phoenix - Over 228.5 (229 ok)
Dallas -7.5 at New York
NCAAF Buffalo -6 is free tonight. You still have time to steal from a family member if you have to.
Road favorite in league play in November. What can go wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Snead
this is grunching a little bit, but on a day with an NFL game and 2 CFB games, calling NBA games between mostly small market and/or bad NBA teams public, might be stretching the definition of the term a little.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I have run good the last few weeks not posting picks. So this is probably a bad idea.
Buffalo -5.5
NC +4
Actually bought out of the Buffalo bet at halftime when I took Kent St +2.5. Saw the way that one was gonna go.
UNC was down 3 (covering) and made a last second FG to tie it, which means they will lose by 6 or 7 in OT, because that is how these things work.
Sigh.
Edit: Pitt even has the ball first, which is setting up perfect for UNC to lose by 7. Awesome.
How does an okayish team like Dallas lose TWICE to the awful Knicks?
Unbelievable.
At least the Atlanta over covered easily.
So I wonder what sports media is going to be talking about tormorrow? Nothing much happened tonight. Hopefully they find something to talk about.
I think this is actually going to work out ok for Garrett.
The season is lost anyways. He will get suspended for the rest of season probably and cost the Browns a couple games, but whatever. He is still on rookie deal so the money he will lose is chump change compared to what his next contract will give him. So when you factor in him not having to play the rest of the season and not having to fade a career threatening injury before his next contract, doesn't even lose too much EV wise.
Also, their coach sucks, so Garrett not playing the rest of the season, along with the black mark on the coach for lack of control (a common theme with the Browns this year) will mitigate the chance they finish the season strong and keep him.
I guess the only thing that sucks is that he is going to be playing the Steelers 2+ games/year for the foreseeable future so I guess he has to worry about cheap shots at his knees more going forward.
Garrett should be arrested
What an amazing game. Was wearing my KP Jersey and the crowd was extremely hostile towards him and it obv affected himQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
if pouncey gets suspended that's dogshit...
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
When I woke this morning was surprised to see my Pitt bet covered, now I see why. Thanks Verm!
More importantly, Verm, who are we playing on tonight's card?
Gonna take LTech +7 at whatever price I can get. The line keeps moving closer to 7, so waiting on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Obviously if you want Marshall you should probably take it ASAP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardGonna take LTech +7 at whatever price I can get. The line keeps moving closer to 7, so waiting on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Obviously if you want Marshall you should probably take it ASAP.
*Sigh* Smart $ has been on Marshall. So of course I bet LTech earlier in the week at +2.5. My luck.
You bet a game at +2.5 that closed at 6.5?? That is some serious taking the worst of it.
GL.
Took O44.5 for Fresno St game.
Sacramento at Lakers - Under 215
This is why we can’t have nice things.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Snead
Bears repeating that there is very rarely free money in any of this. It’s ok just to “really like” a game and be wrong every now and again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardSo I should be backing up the $$ truck on Ohio St -52.5?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
But yeah, books are definitely aware this is going on and some of these lines are insane against the bad teams. Northweser -41? That is more points than their last 5 games combined. LOL.
I’m on NW -26 1H. Zoo Mass is a D III team masquerading as a D1 team.
I also jumped into OU -9.5. I think the party is over for Baylor tonight.
Cinci, Navy, LSU and Bama as well.
GL today
So far:
Temple +6
Indiana +14.5
Michigan -13.5
Wake Forest/Clemson O59.5
UCLA +21.5
Ohio St 1H -31.5
UMASS/NW 1H O33
Oklahoma 1H -6.5 (trying to get ahead of the trend of them getting up big and 4th Q collapse)
I’m now on Northwestern -24 1H. GL Daly!Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
I’m on NW -26 1H. Zoo Mass is a D III team masquerading as a D1 team.
I also jumped into OU -9.5. I think the party is over for Baylor tonight.
Cinci, Navy, LSU and Bama as well.
GL today