Anyone like Cleveland tonight? Under 45?
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Anyone like Cleveland tonight? Under 45?
Well, now we know.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I love ya man butQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
1 Thurs night football
2 1st week of season
3 who the fuck knows how new rules will be implemented
Too much variance
248 penalties by my count. Nearly every damn play. Murders game flow (not to mention enjoyment). Shit like Bears Broncos better have you clutching your wallet.
Didn’t even look but I KNOW unders are killing it. If you like unders the ref is your best friend today
It’s like the new baseball. You never know when they will do the switcheroo but you ride the trend til it ends. They can’t keep this trash up... can they?
So I don’t know about Cleveland in particular but that’s a lean if you’re blind betting NFL.
I like cle -6. Don’t know about total.Quote:
Originally Posted by varys
Cleveland and under is what everyone loves. Just like everyone loved Philly and over last night.
(So what’s that tell you)
Have to put this out there early. I love Wisconsin -3 this week.
Hate it or love it?
Also like kc-6.5. Been heavy on them the last two weeks.
Not in love with this but ticket is filed .
over roverQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
It tells you where some perceived value might lay... but not who is going to win. It’s an important difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
You have to do that handicap yourself.
I think the Pats were pretty one sided too.
I have a feeling we will revisit this tomorrow
It’s always going to be a results driven business. I get that. The pats were closer to 50/50 then you think. We had a bunch of folks in here telling me how they liked the Fins. I don’t think we will have many people making as spirited an arguement on the Jets.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIt tells you where some perceived value might lay... but not who is going to win. It’s an important difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
You have to do that handicap yourself.
I think the Pats were pretty one sided too.
I have a feeling we will revisit this tomorrow
Also - all NFL games are deep markets but Monday night is extra deep..... they dont make many mistakes. See last nights Sunday night game as an example.
Guess what I’m saying is if the name of the game was to break even id feel better with the Jets and over than Browns and Under.
Last minute:
Cincinnati (Gausman) +159 at Cubs (Hamels)
Same game under 8.5 +100
The under feels like such free money that I’m sure I’ll dump back this weekends profits tonight.
The public LOVES the Browns. America loves the Browns. This phenomenon kept up on me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The Jets and the QB mono storyline and the over reaction. -2.5 —> -6.5 with heavy juice.
The deep markets comment is true and fun to pursue but this game is about plot lines and the reaction to them and a lot less books taking a position. I am not a strict believer that “the truth is revealed in the line” and more a “balanced action” disciple - but sometimes books take risk. I get it.
That said we did this what seems like ages ago. I am the fortunate son -2.5
:nooseQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The sad thing is that it was 5-2 in the bottom of the 8th, and an easy 2nd out turned into an error which scored a run and left runners on 2nd and 3rd, and then it was pretty much game over. I hate losing unders like that
I could take the chicken shit way out and blame the QB breaking his leg in half but they looked like shit before then.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe public LOVES the Browns. America loves the Browns. This phenomenon kept up on me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The Jets and the QB mono storyline and the over reaction. -2.5 —> -6.5 with heavy juice.
The deep markets comment is true and fun to pursue but this game is about plot lines and the reaction to them and a lot less books taking a position. I am not a strict believer that “the truth is revealed in the line” and more a “balanced action” disciple - but sometimes books take risk. I get it.
That said we did this what seems like ages ago. I am the fortunate son -2.5
This is why we can’t have nice things.
If they convert the 4th and 2 in the third quarter I think this ends up being a much closer game. 6 of Cleveland's points where directly from stupid penalties. I agree Jets where never going to score with Simien as the QB . The young guy seemed to atleast move the ball somewhat. The Browns are not very good yet. Mayfield is going to be exploited by good defenses .Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI could take the chicken shit way out and blame the QB breaking his leg in half but they looked like shit before then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The public LOVES the Browns. America loves the Browns. This phenomenon kept up on me.
The Jets and the QB mono storyline and the over reaction. -2.5 —> -6.5 with heavy juice.
The deep markets comment is true and fun to pursue but this game is about plot lines and the reaction to them and a lot less books taking a position. I am not a strict believer that “the truth is revealed in the line” and more a “balanced action” disciple - but sometimes books take risk. I get it.
That said we did this what seems like ages ago. I am the fortunate son -2.5
This is why we can’t have nice things.
The #Giants have named Daniel Jones their starting QB.
Jump on any ROY bets you can find at 10-1 or better
Gardner Minshew though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
love the 'stache, but if jones is good, not necessarily great, the fucking NY media hype train behind him is gonna be epic...if he is great, man it's gonna be beautiful if you're holding a jones ticket...Quote:
Originally Posted by varysGardner Minshew though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I got him at 33:1 right before the odds tanked to 10:1 and I feel like im stealing...
He better be really fucking good because they have no receivers and a shitty o line.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenislove the 'stache, but if jones is good, not necessarily great, the fucking NY media hype train behind him is gonna be epic...if he is great, man it's gonna be beautiful if you're holding a jones ticket...Quote:
Originally Posted by varys
I got him at 33:1 right before the odds tanked to 10:1 and I feel like im stealing...
the lack of receiving talent is definitely what bothers me the most...I think he's mobile enough to offset a little bit of the line...maybe im gonna be hugely wrong on that last fact...Quote:
Originally Posted by varysHe better be really fucking good because they have no receivers and a shitty o line.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I think having saquon will help him out a lot...might also hurt him if people believe that they are winning (if they win) due to saquon…but if he posts the counting numbers that should take care of itself...
but again at 33:1 im not priced into any sorta perfection on this bet...the fact that this thing cratered to 10:1 means I already made a shitton of equity as is...I can deal with that...
GBCP
Pointsbet, my NJ pal. NJ is ground zero for sports wagering. It’s beyond any debate now.
I just learned what a points bet is. Also called an action bet.
I am the last guy to explain it but.... assume the line is -10. I bet $100 a point over 10. If the final score wins 20-0, I collect $1000
I lose a commensurate amount every point under. You set a stop loss for the bet. You must post funds equal to you stop.
Apparently a big deal in Australia where Pointsbet originates from
Someone scored $600k week one Pats I believe @ $30k a point
yeah heard about this on the simmons pod...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
so for arguments sake lets say the pats line is 21 this week...can I bet $100 point with a $100 stop?
seems like a good way to fuck 'em...taking really little risk and if the game is a blowout I clean up...
I assume the max win is equal to your max loss (ie stop). idk.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisyeah heard about this on the simmons pod...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
so for arguments sake lets say the pats line is 21 this week...can I bet $100 point with a $100 stop?
seems like a good way to fuck 'em...taking really little risk and if the game is a blowout I clean up...
It’s like any other market. I just didn’t know it existed in sports wagering.
I am backlogged on Simmons. Can you point (pun) me to the pod?
Pointsbet is so aggressive with bonuses, derivatives and now this. Fascinating book to me.
Well, now I looked. Just a formalityQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Unders 13-3 for week, 20-12 overall (62.5%)
Sorry Daly, Browns and Under.
It was a last minute autobet after seeing your post as you can see from the time stamp. The contrarian in me got kick started.
The September baseball is “brain dead easy” stat of the day
Favorites = or > -200 are 40-14
Teams who give a shit vs teams that don’t
yeah that makes sense...just seemed like cheap optionality otherwise...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI assume the max win is equal to your max loss (ie stop). idk.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
It’s like any other market. I just didn’t know it existed in sports wagering.
I am backlogged on Simmons. Can you point (pun) me to the pod?
Pointsbet is so aggressive with bonuses, derivatives and now this. Fascinating book to me.
fuck, don't remember what pod he mentioned it on...want to say it was sometime in mid-august, but that doesn't really help...
pointsbet seems tough...so you're basically betting that you're better than the market...im a sportsbetting fish so i'd get fucking hammered...if you have a nose for sniffing bullshit on the lines, I can definitely see it being a profitable endeavor if you pick your spots..
My habit has been to go to a Vegas sportsbook for first week of MLB playoffs. One of my favorite things in life.
100% I’m going to New Jersey this time. I’ve heard too many favorable reports. I must make the pilgrimage at least once.
The NJ gaming commission and lawmakers are very focused on the public and are very innovative. Must sample.
yeah but then you have to go to AC...and that's just the nut low...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
pack your Kevlar and AK...
Money heals all woundsQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisyeah but then you have to go to AC...and that's just the nut low...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
pack your Kevlar and AK...
There are some huge bonuses out there - we’ve discussed
Here’s a 1st inn scratchpad for nostalgias sake
5 minutes from now
TABLET - MLB PROPS - WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - SCORE IN 1ST INNING - NO -130
WQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
No runs & zero drama
That’s not how I remember 1st inn lol
tru…Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarMoney heals all woundsQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
There are some huge bonuses out there - we’ve discussed
Here’s a 1st inn scratchpad for nostalgias sake
5 minutes from now
TABLET - MLB PROPS - WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS - SCORE IN 1ST INNING - NO -130
if it didn't make my skin crawl going back to that dump i'd meet you down there for a bourbon and a cigar...
Anyone want to take a shot at a dog over +400 today?
Texas isn't a terrible team (74-78), has the 6th most runs scored out of the 15 AL teams, and Koby Allard has pitched okay, with the ability to pitch well when he's on.
Gerrit Cole is the obvious reason for this line, but he's gone 8 innings the last 2 starts, and I'm wondering if he will either be tired or load-managed for this one. He has had double-digit Ks in the last 6 starts, which is also part of the reason for this line.
Anyway, I'm going to gamble. This one has a better shot than when a team like Detroit or KC faces him.
Texas (Allard) +425 at Houston (Cole)
Also
Cincinnati (Mahle) +150 at Cubs (Lester)
Lester looks very worn out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI assume the max win is equal to your max loss (ie stop). idk.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
It’s like any other market. I just didn’t know it existed in sports wagering.
I am backlogged on Simmons. Can you point (pun) me to the pod?
Pointsbet is so aggressive with bonuses, derivatives and now this. Fascinating book to me.
What’s old is new again.
We used to call them “fast cash” bets. Some locals would offer them but it was “the Greek.com” of emory serves that was the big online operator who offered these for 1-2 seasons.
A few buddies solved for X on these types of bets back in the day. The general idea was to find a college game with a 30ish point spread and a high total and take the favorite. If the dog won it was usually a cover of no more than 10 points. Some times the favorite would win by a few and you win a few bucks. The underdog blowout “almost never” happened, if there was going to be a blowout it was going to be a team like USC annihilating some shitbag like Oregon St back in the day.
Now I say “almost never” because a certain poster that we all know and love (not me) put in a huge fastcash bet on The U vs Mike Vick’s Va Tech as a moderate favorite. Va Tech won like 40-10. Guy had to ride the bus for a while.
Was I right about Allard, or what? 4 2/3 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs so far.
Unfortunately Cole is Cole, and it's locked 0-0.
Of course a minute after I type this, he gives up a hit and then a HR.
:fail2
What do we think about the football game tomorrow night? I've been doing well betting unders so far. But 39.5? Seems low even for these teams.
I say hmmmmmmmm on this one...
and this one too...