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Astros 9-0 2ndQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Good news is that I considered betting Oakland (before even seeing this) and then decided against it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The bad news is that I've been horrible at dogs this year, so you don't want to be on my side on those.
The worse news is that it's losing 6-0, and that Greinke doesn't often cough up a big lead once he has it.
Fiers lasted 1 complete inning.
Assume the position
This game is bananas
UNREAL FINISH
I think I can endorse LSU at 18-1
as a diehard texans fan since day one, that one hurt
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPeters
As a Saints M.l. bettor, egads...it was a thrilling finish..i have Houston to win SB at 35-1 by the by.
had texans +6.5, at least they coveredQuote:
Originally Posted by shoeshine boxQuote:
Originally Posted by DrPeters
As a Saints M.l. bettor, egads...it was a thrilling finish..i have Houston to win SB at 35-1 by the by.
That had to be a bad beat for the books right? Given the pending parlays and all the money on Hou spread etc
I see westgate opened Wisconsin-Michigan at UM-1.5. Its two weeks away, but both have byes. I was assuming and hoping Wisconsin was under a fg favorite. Praying that line is anywhere near pickem when it hits the board where I can bet it. I watched Michigan unable to push around MTSU lineman who maxed out at 6-2/280. Saw them struggle on both sides of the line against an army team with no one over 280. Think Wisconsin is going to crush them at camp Randall. That’s going to be a max straight bet, and hoping to see some alternative -20 +1000 type lines. I give Michigan almost no chance in the trenches and that game will be won in the trenches.
Love letter to Druff
Druff gives too much weight to the antiquated “sharps” vs “public” metric.
I saw this today and it served to inspire me to pay more attention now. So Druff, after 145 games your time may have arrived - just not in the way you expected.
Pros vs Joes is a nice confirmation of your handicap. Perhaps it’s a filter to bring attention to something you hadn’t looked at. That’s it. In the age of DFS and every Millenial scraping with Python & SQL the difference is largely size not insight
Quote:
In case you've abandoned baseball and want to get back in, we have about two weeks of regular season play left (roughly 17 games left for each team, to be exact). One of the easiest ways to profit from this final stretch is following line movement.
This time of year is unique because casual bettors have left baseball and moved to football. As a result, contrarian value plummets because there is no more public to bet against. At this point, it's only sharps with an edge who are betting these games. For this reason, following big moves is profitable because these moves were caused solely by pros.
According to Bet Labs Sports, teams that see the line move at least 10-cents toward them in games 145 to 162 have gone 1,116-881 (56%) since 2005, winning +64.78 units. Think of the Yankees going from -150 to -165. At no other point in the season is following big line moves this profitable.
Boys sip some aloe vera water to this
Angels +127
Mets -122
Total special of the Night which may be over b4 the 5th inning Dodgers Baltimore Over 10
Id take first half to
Druff is very smart but he has no clue when it comes to sports.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
First he is wrong half the time when he says public and sharp. Just because u have sports options and they say it doesnt mean shit and throw those % Out the window
If u arent in front of your screen all day watching your line service your wasting money. Unless u have a local who moves slow. You have to have some knowledge not just some stupid service saying steam move. This isnt 1990 anymore these books all have sports options lol shit they prob pay them.
The sports pager back in like 95 was money anytime a line moved 20 cents in baseball u bet it and u beat the book to it always and it won a ton.
Druff this isnt poker buddy u need to watch the games or put your nickle bets to charity.
U need to no were the line is gonna move druff U wait 4 mins b4 a game to bet it. Thats not profitable long term.
Last munute: Boston (Eovaldi) at Toronto (Zeuch) - Under 10 +100
Pittsburgh (Keller) +110 at San Francisco (Cueto) - Cueto's first start since very long injury, not much prep, won't pitch well
Cubs (Quintana) at San Diego (Bolanos) - OVER 9 +100
I’m aligned with Druff and oppo badguy. Uh oh
Thought Buehler would cough up a few. We will see if it’s necessary. 6-0 4th inn.
That’s our Dodgers report for now
Astros Wade Miley getting shelled again. This is an important development
Shout out to the Red Sox For clinching the under 95 nice and early.
At least Baltimore still has 4 more losses to go to lock up under 59
Nice work Druff
Dreadful night for me
Yelich done for the year (fractured kneecap) but Bellinger still won’t win HR derby. Bellinger misses Muncy
Don't know if i can agree with the "nobody betting baseball" thing, because football doesn't run every day.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
But interesting stats on the line moves.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Dodgers miss Muncy big time. My fantasy team misses both him and Keston Hiura.
I hit both totals well. As usual I lost the underdog, though for the second night in a row, my dog came back from seemingly a dead position, and just fell short by a run.
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Careful with the toddgers - they probably had a hell of a party last night.
Can anyone conceive of a scenario where the Panthers lose tmrw night? Like the bucs may cover (not likely), but this is the type of spot where if I had >50M i'm betting 5M+ on the panthers ML
I cannot wait for the playoffs. Wire to wire favorites and the futures liability that implies. The pat answers are gonna get wrecked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
At first glance, it’s a dreadful offering. Here’s one. St Louis with Dakota Hudson -145-> -156. Apply yesterday’s construct and you got a tasty favorite Druff.
How about the 3.5 pt move to BC, Daly?
Nothing would surprise me in the BC game, honestly. The line move is telling but inhubk it has more to do with Kansas than BC.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI cannot wait for the playoffs. Wire to wire favorites and the futures liability that implies. The pat answers are gonna get wrecked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
At first glance, it’s a dreadful offering. Here’s one. St Louis with Dakota Hudson -145-> -156. Apply yesterday’s construct and you got a tasty favorite Druff.
How about the 3.5 pt move to BC, Daly?
Starting now:
Arizona (Ray) at Mets (Matz) - Over 9 +100
Let's do two more overs.
You have some time to bet these ones.
Pittsburgh (Agrazal) at SF (Webb) - Over 9 -110
Cincinnati (Gray) at Seattle (M. Gonzales) - Over 8 -117
The rest of the way I'm going to be doing mostly totals, and I'll be looking for +EV overs more aggressively than I have in the past. But it should be a mixture of overs and unders.
The last two seasons have shown that I'm just better at totals than sides or moneylines in MLB.
Joe Kelly is pitching in the 6th
Go for a walk around the block Chaps. Trust me. You don’t want to watch
Weirdest sportsbetting day ever.
Mets (over 9) game has 7 runs in first 3 innings. Blew bases loaded twice after that. Finishes 9-0. Tie.
Pittsburgh (over 9) game has 7 runs in first 5 innings. When it was 6-3, bases loaded, no out, Pittsburgh didn't score. Finishes 6-3. Tie.
Cincinnati (over 8) looked bad, just 2-0 in the 7th. But runs scored, and it was 5-2 Seattle in the top of the 9th. Bases loaded, 1 out. Then 2 out. Final batter struck out, to make me lose, and...
Wait, a wild pitch! A run scores despite the strikeout with 2 outs, runner safe at first, and it's 5-3. Bases still loaded. Next batter gets out.
3 picks. 3 ties.
Will never happen again in my life.
:what
I agree Druff. I knew today would be trouble.
So much weirdness as things wind down during these last two weeks. The Dodger Orioles game was an extreme example of some paranormal activity.
I really need to stop and just wait for the playoffs. I don’t think there are any more questions that need answering.
I think we need to get back to a point where everyone is fielding their best players and giving a serious effort against opponents that actually are relevant
Wagering on the current shenanigans with the juiced ball and ridiculous bullpens is irresponsible.
Agreed Krypt
I’m no NCAAF genius but.... I took this yesterday.... it’s -7.5 BetOnline now but -8.5 &. -9 elsewhere
I’m prolly gonna take another helping
UCF vs Stanford.
ACCEPTED:
9/11/2019 1:25:51 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NCAA - 136 CENTRAL FLORIDA -7 -120 FOR GAME
Most sharps are really down on Stanford this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I want you to be proud of me Krypt
Tablet - Football - NFL - 102 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers under 24 -110 for 1st Half
Accepted: 09/12/2019 1:08:17 PM
Description:
Mobile - Football - NFL - 101 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 -123 for Game
Druff suicide under
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 920 Tampa Bay Rays/Texas Rangers under 5½ -102 for 1st 5 Innings
I missed under 10.5 for game. but you prolly can still get it.
Washington (Corbin) at Minnesota (Gibson) - Under 9 +100
Can we go for our 4th tie in a row?
if their defense cant slow down UCF they're in trouble...they got torched by slovis and USC last week, so going cross country and having to slow down that offense and whoever the hell they have at QB is gonna be a tough ask...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMost sharps are really down on Stanford this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
unless Costello comes back, don't know if that backup QB (can't remember his name) is gonna cut it...
If you going to jump on the Wazzu Train tomorrow night now is the time, last of the 9.5’s are disappearing.
Sorry but can't resist two sides:
Atlanta (Soroka) at Washington (Scherzer) - Over 8.5 -110
Milwaukee (Houser) +118 at St. Louis (Wainwright)
Yankees (Tanaka) at Toronto (Kay) - Under 10 -117
Detroit (Zimmerman) -107 vs. Baltimore (Brooks)
Two more, starting later:
Oakland (Bassitt) at Texas (Burke) - Over 11 -115
Cincinnati (L. Castillo) at Arizona (Leake) - Over 9 +100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Which is why you still live at home with your parents. You are worse than tmmlgay.