*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

if you like taking a shot on a longshot from time to time, watch how this hovland kid plays in his first few events as a pro before the british in july…

if he plays well, I think you could do a lot worse than like 125:1 or whatever he's gonna be at the british...

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I like that bet a whole lot. No way he should be that long after what he’s shown this weekend. Far from a favorite but he’s live.

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only "issue" I have is that this could be a horse for a course...he beat the hell outta everybody at pebble at the US Am last year and he showed well at the open here...but I mean when you are getting a price at 125:1 or whatever he's gonna end up being, he's definitely gonna be live...I was trying to find him after round 1 for top 10, but didn't see any of my books offering it...woulda been just short, but this kid's got a tremendous amount of game...

BTW if you have a book that offers british open matchups and you can get good prices I would slam the shit outta any reasonable guy playing tiger...

royal portrush in northern Ireland, rainy, windy, temps in the 50s...how does that sound for a guy with a fucked up back?

Okay, I know I haven't been hot in baseball lately, and the Orioles have lost 6 in a row but....

Baltimore (Ynoa) +200 at Oakland (Bre. Anderson)

I don't know where the hell to put this one, but figured it would be appreciated by people who browse this thread...

so HOF...

:lol2

https://www.nj.com/entertainment/201...-dentures.html

and he @-ed, @kingcock..

:lol

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Not so easy any more.

I have Debbie Gibson and Minny vs ERod Sawks. I have Minny series too. Watched that entire 17 inning game. Only a bettor would love that.

I lean the Giolito (CWS) autobet vs Lester Cubs. Don’t love it. Haven’t acted.

It’s tough. Shit is all priced pretty well. I’m working on it.


I’m open to ideas.

Kinda wanted to fade Trevor Williams because he's coming off injury, but Zimmerman is just so bad.

Detroit up 1-0 now though so I regret not doing it.

Anyway here's a fade of Max Fried, who has been bad lately:

NY Mets (Matz) +139 at Atlanta (Fried)

Cleveland (Plutko) at Texas (Palumbo) - Under 11 -110

Wind blowing mostly in at about 10mph.

Cleveland out to a 5-0 lead which is bad, but good opportunity to livebet under.

When you're running bad, everything goes wrong.

Live bet looking good (under 14.5, could've had under 15.5 if I was faster), 8-3 going into the 9th. Also the regular under is tied.

Top 9th, 1st and 2nd, double play grounder to usually reliable Asdrubal Carrera. He boots it and bases are loaded instead, with 1 out.

Then a seeing-eye little dribbler gets through the middle with 2 out and an 0-2 count, and it's 10-3. So the regular under is done, and now the under 14.5 is in danger.

:gay

Put this in the 1st inning thread, but here it is here too

SF +155 vs Todgers.

Last time out vs Dodgers Bumgarner lost 1-0. He will get his revenge today.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Put this in the 1st inning thread, but here it is here too

SF +155 vs Todgers.

Last time out vs Dodgers Bumgarner lost 1-0. He will get his revenge today.

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Who has 3 WS rings and may end up with 4 by the end of 2019?

Who has the highest hard contact rate amongst qualified starting pitchers.

Same guy.

Urias is gonna be little more than an opener. Former Druff top prospect loves to fuck around with control and will prolly have 50 pitches by 2nd inning. Maybe we get Joe Kelly next.

I did a small over 7.5

I’ve been on Dodgers regular just for the money but this is a shit show that I will skip. This ain’t a pitchers duel, I know that. The wife beater Urias is not an Ace. He’s an opener. Taking his problems at work home and beating his wife is not Ace behavior.

Have another taco Julio, really. Kid is gonna look like Sabathia by next year.

I’m not hatin on Bum. HOF lock. Warrior. He’s gonna get murdered if he goes to NYY. Unless..... Bum becomes an opener in part of a bizarre NYY bullpen by committee thing in the playoffs.

I chuckle over the little nobody Max Muncy talking back to Mad Bum. Nobody will remember his name 2 years from now.

Just take the win Simp

@ Clayton Richard Toronto

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 917 Los Angeles Angels -148 for Game

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Originally Posted by Daly

I’ve seen some locals that are hanging L Bell with a receiving total of 625. I like the under there Bigly.

I also think Foles will easily have more than 3425 passing yards if he plays 16 games (I got him around 4100) but it’s hard to back a season long over

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Even though I got him at 4100 I took under 3850..... someone fucked up bad with this line.

Noce big middle going in less than a week.

Week one College

UCLA +4
Oklahoma State -16.5
Utah -6
FSU -4

Here is one for tonight:

Angels (Canning) -110 at St. Louis (Wacha)

Aside from one good start against the Marlins, Wacha has been a disaster this season, with a 6.00 ERA and 1.735 WHIP. 3 of his last 4 starts have resulted in 6-7 runs in fewer than 5 innings. Canning has a mediocre ERA (3.93) and has had a bit of an issue with the HR (9 in 50 innings), but he has a stellar 0.993 WHIP and is averaging more than a strikeout per inning. He is considered a potential up-and-coming star.

I've been super cold lately, but I'm going to fire one more before taking my usual Sunday break.

Brian Johnson is starting for the Sawks, who hasn't gone more than 3 innings this year, mostly pitching in relief. It does not appear the Sawks are using him as an opener. They're actually starting him. He's not as bad as his 10.00 ERA indicates, as 7 of his ER came from one outing. But he's not good, nor is he expected to lats long.

Toronto is using Derek Law as an opener, and the ball is expected to be handed to Sam Gavilglio after an inning or so. Gaviglio has a mediocre 4.47 ERA, but his WHIP is under 1.100, and he has a nice 45/7 K/BB rate.

Sharps like the Toronto side, and there's been some reverse line movement, as well.

Toronto +162 (Law) at Boston (B. Johnson)

tailing for a dime

don't fuck me here pal

:noose

Good work druffster

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Originally Posted by gauchojake

Good work druffster

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“Just the way we drew it up”

The ups and downs feel better. More bang for your buck.

Funny story with this one.

I bet it and took a nap shortly after it started.

Woke up to see it was 6-1 Boston in the 6th, and thought, "Oh well, another loss, boy I just can't win these days", and fell back asleep.

Then I looked at the score later and saw the game was 15-13 Toronto as a final. I felt good. However, shortly after that, I woke up, and I realized that score check was just a dream. I got sad again and fell back asleep without checking the real score.

Then I woke back up and had to take a second to figure out if there really was a comeback and if I really had won 15-13.

"No," I said to myself. "Definitely a dream. Well, let's take a look at the bad news."

Then I go on my phone and see Toronto won 8-7.

I think it was the gauchojake factor.

somewhere san is getting ready for a lobster dinner on mr. sale...

May be the last championship BnP sees in his lifetime



Tablet - Baseball - NCAA - 3333 Michigan +194 for Game

The lines are wildly different from book to book. This is part of why we bet under the radar stuff.
Someone get badguy to post Wimbledon picks.

7pm EST


For a cold weather team to come this far and possibly upset baseball royalty is really fantastic.

Do your own handicapping but I like the M pitching today. Vandy relief could be cooked. Same kid who pitched 40 in relief against 10 batters may have to show up again tonight for Vandy.

Mich always scores first when they win. Their lead off kid pulled a quad. I don’t care. Good value.

Tampa (Morton) -113 at Minnesota (Odorizzi)

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 905 New York Mets +140 for Game


Elizabeth Warren has a proposal to help the homeless who didn’t place 1st 5 bets.

Sorry for your loss BnP. I trust your great grandkids will see a parade.

Clayton Kershaw is pitching at Coors Saturday

For many of you Friday will be the last day to get a home equity line of credit from your bank.

Kershaw’s current arsenal of crap is not gonna play well at Coors. Movement? Ahh, not so much. 90mph fastball, lol.

Fortunately, the nerds and Druff’s sharps will trust Kershaw’s record there.

Braves WS Future has gone from +2200 to +1200. What financial plans have you made for your future Druff?

Jeez bigdick

Speaking of runs on the bank...

GBCP, explain to the rest of the country what the deal is with the state budget shutdown and the shutdown of wagering in your fine state.

With the exception of GBCP the Kershaw line will come out at 2pm Friday. The only question is “how much” & “how dumb” the LA & public $ will be. Do you wait?

Still gotta degen on sports between hands:

San Francisco (Beede) -105 vs. Arizona (Young)

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Speaking of runs on the bank...

GBCP, explain to the rest of the country what the deal is with the state budget shutdown and the shutdown of wagering in your fine state.

With the exception of GBCP the Kershaw line will come out at 2pm Friday. The only question is “how much” & “how dumb” the LA & public $ will be. Do you wait?

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you sure about that san? just logged in to DK, they have live lines for games going on right now...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Speaking of runs on the bank...

GBCP, explain to the rest of the country what the deal is with the state budget shutdown and the shutdown of wagering in your fine state.

With the exception of GBCP the Kershaw line will come out at 2pm Friday. The only question is “how much” & “how dumb” the LA & public $ will be. Do you wait?

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you sure about that san? just logged in to DK, they have live lines for games going on right now...

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Stupidity wagering is not the inalienable right you thought it was.

I didn’t want to be the one to tell you.

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LSR reviewed a June 21 email from the DGE, which instructs operators to place this politically charged messaging on their websites by June 24:

Please be advised that beginning 11:59 PM on July 7th your Online Casino and Sports Wagering account could potentially be inaccessible if a State Budget is not passed. All account functions including wagering and fund withdrawals will be unavailable during this time.

That language applies to NJ sports betting providers who operate via a casino license. Those who participate via a racetrack license would need to post the message by June 30.

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https://www.legalsportsreport.com/33...udget-dispute/

[QUOTE=Sanlmar;843286]

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

you sure about that san? just logged in to DK, they have live lines for games going on right now...

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Stupidity wagering is not the inalienable right you thought it was.

I didn’t want to be the one to tell you.

Quote:

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LSR reviewed a June 21 email from the DGE, which instructs operators to place this politically charged messaging on their websites by June 24:

Please be advised that beginning 11:59 PM on July 7th your Online Casino and Sports Wagering account could potentially be inaccessible if a State Budget is not passed. All account functions including wagering and fund withdrawals will be unavailable during this time.

That language applies to NJ sports betting providers who operate via a casino license. Those who participate via a racetrack license would need to post the message by June 30.


https://www.legalsportsreport.com/33...udget-dispute/

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didn't see any message when I logged on to DK...they might operate via a racetrack license...

guess the budget is tough to crunch when the biggest cash cow in the state ain't spittin out the revenues it was in 2006...

and BTW didn't know NJ had surpassed NV in terms of sports betting handle...man if you are a big state and don't have sports betting you are legitimately fucking retarded...hell fucking any goddamn state should have it...oh I forgot, cant fuck with the stupid ass fucking lottery in this fucking country...god, country, and the fucking lotto...

[QUOTE=GambleBotsChafedPenis;843311]

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Stupidity wagering is not the inalienable right you thought it was.

I didn’t want to be the one to tell you.

Quote:

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LSR reviewed a June 21 email from the DGE, which instructs operators to place this politically charged messaging on their websites by June 24:

Please be advised that beginning 11:59 PM on July 7th your Online Casino and Sports Wagering account could potentially be inaccessible if a State Budget is not passed. All account functions including wagering and fund withdrawals will be unavailable during this time.

That language applies to NJ sports betting providers who operate via a casino license. Those who participate via a racetrack license would need to post the message by June 30.


https://www.legalsportsreport.com/33...udget-dispute/

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didn't see any message when I logged on to DK...they might operate via a racetrack license...

guess the budget is tough to crunch when the biggest cash cow in the state ain't spittin out the revenues it was in 2006...

and BTW didn't know NJ had surpassed NV in terms of sports betting handle...man if you are a big state and don't have sports betting you are legitimately fucking retarded...hell fucking any goddamn state should have it...oh I forgot, cant fuck with the stupid ass fucking lottery in this fucking country...god, country, and the fucking lotto...

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The NJ books have been really aggressive about building their business through aggressive marketing and promotions. The promotions were so generous Vegas sharps were flying in. That fat guy from Showtime Action (Krakinberg?) was an example during one or two episodes.

That’s not the point though, is it? History is a great teacher. We are talking about Atlantic City, right? Once upon a time it was the only east coast outlet. Then there was Foxwoods etc etc. Atlantic City wagering will be metoo soon except for the understanding they have about tax rates.

However, they recently added another 1.5% I believe. Politicians are clueless. I digress.

Imagine California legalizing sports wagering and the effect that will have on Vegas.

Imagine looking back on the observation that Jersey surpassed Nevada 5 years from now. Consider how somewhat irrelevant those two entities will be in the grand scheme of things at that juncture

Once upon a time Massachusetts had the first lottery. Whoever was 2nd made a similar benchmark. Today, who gives a fuck. Wagering will be exactly the same damn thing.

Subscribe to my casino newsletter or at the very least my certain vision of the domestic wagering/casino outlook.

Oh wait, I think you already do.

Tsi Tsi fly and Sake gakked on your front lawn badguy

Sake is mentally soft and physically round. Your kind of girl.

Plus $ on the old skinny Williams vs the 15 yr old, Salty?

You can bet with Bitcoin

I got +400 on Venus.

The kid is ahead but closing is hard to do.

your night club game badguy

With any luck I will both bust and make my nutt with women’s tennis and avoid the MLB shitshow tonight

Don’t want to bother you on Canada Day Simpdog so I’ll post here.

Did you do your homework? Of course not. I see the LaBatts empties.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 926 New York Yankees/New York Mets over 8½ -120 for Game


NYY Paxton is gonna get drilled - even by the Mets. Mets beat the future NL Champ Braves previously.

(That Braves future we got @ +2200 is now +1000. We will deal with that later.)

NYY offense is good for 5.9/game on their own. They are good for 4.5 against Wheeler by my estimate. The NYY bullpen is jet lagged, hung over and tattered from London

Get in now son.

This will help pay for the kids military school thus freeing you up for this thread.

san you can be honest with me...if tradesports existed nowadays you wouldn't sleep would you?

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

san you can be honest with me...if tradesports existed nowadays you wouldn't sleep would you?

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Not gonna lie. I got a problem.

Wife said something recently. I walk around with an iPad and the MLB pkg 7 days a week. Games start at noon and run til midnight.

I saw Monday’s lineup of crap last night and there was an emptiness. Oops, Wimbledon. 8am.

Tennis is typically a joy but I came up short today. Forcing me to follow the Rays/Orioles. What else was there? Honestly. Putrid. Just a 1st place vs Last place big time favorite.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 960 Tampa Bay Rays -½ -175 for 1st 5 Innings W
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 960 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -147 for Game W

All weekend pounding the overs. How could you skip that? Simp will tell you I was all over the stupid Sawks/Yankees totals. Dodgers at Coors.

It’s been almost (a little) like hockey without any of the joy.

12 hours a day of checking or handicapping has been so immersive that I KNOW I would have a huge adjustment. I don’t really like where I’m at but I love the dough.

Back to back, lol wow would be proud

The stupid ball and the wretched bullpens. MLB putting on fake baseball for Meghan & Harry with the 385 foot fence.

It’s like the NHL in that the books don’t know what to do. The sharps think they see value. So there’s another side.

The MLB is mindless this year. If you aren’t betting 1st 5 you need to be institutionalized. The mismatches in pitching are unprecedented. The lack of any parity between teams is amazing. Anyone who uses any data pre 2019 is losing.

For example: In the past I made my brand here fading the Dodgers and Kershaw. The sharp counter cultural play. This year, value is stupid. Don’t be clever.

To that end, I’ve been betting the Dodgers over and over with precious few gaps. I posted a bunch earlier when I bothered to post. The irony amused me.

All the sports are in flux. Give the public offense. Change is good if you like $. Institutions (books) and the public are slow. It’s opportunity in street clothes

The one sport with increased lol offense that I could not beat was the NBA. I never spent much time wondering why as we had the god-king NHL.

Dudes got the sickness