Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
Can somebody do me a personal favor and photoshop Amy Klobuchar onto this
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/...86/197/c6c.jpg
538 forecast is out:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/
Chance of winning half of pledged delegates:
Biden - 42%
Sanders 22%
Nobody (brokered convention) - 13%
Warren - 12%
Pete - 9%
All others - 2%
Chance of winning Iowa:
Biden - 35%
Sanders - 26%
Pete - 22%
Warren - 14%
Chance of winning New Hampshire:
Sanders - 32%
Biden - 29%
Pete - 19%
Warren - 16%
Though the simulator clearly needs some work as it only gives Biden a 58% chance in South Carolina, and gives Pete a 9% chance there. Which is clearly... not true.
538's final forecast for the 2016 election...Hillary WON!!!
All these great pollsters need to eat shit because they can't predict nothing.
Instead of using pollsters, they should use the Psychic Friends Network.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRmNxqZWl-Q
https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-conte...9-59-47-am.png
29% chance of winning... isn't a small chance. It's within a very normal standard deviation. Pollsters didn't do all that poorly in 2016. Pollsters don't "predict" anything. That's literally just not what they do or are supposed to do. How do you think that way and you post on a poker forum? lol
Of course people who say 538 "predicted" all 50 states correctly in 2012 are also dumb. They didn't predict anything. They merely assigned probabilities to each event.
And look at that popular vote forecast: Clinton 48.5%, Trump: 44.9%. Actual results: Clinton 48.2%, Trump 46.1%. So yeah, let's dismiss polling because of that lol
saw an interesting comment today... biden's ran for president twice before and not won a single primary. bernie's run once and won 22 primaries.
Bet $ 7.00 to win $ 1,750.00
Result: Pending
2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination - Odds to Win (All Bets Action)
Tom Steyer
07/16/20 12:00 EDT
+25000
I was a Democrat all my life until that milquetoast Obama arrived. Now I look at the Dems like a bunch of blithering idiots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NtfPbJmdQA&feature=youtu.beQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
I think of you every time I pass that red Tulsi video billboard in Manchester NH. It’s amongst all the repurposed mills. It’s been up there since the summer.Quote:
Originally Posted by diggydowhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NtfPbJmdQA&feature=youtu.beQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
https://pics.me.me/what-in-the-i-say...s-19322602.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
I think we know who to thank for that poll. Steyermania. Steyermentum. It's a life Steyle
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thishttps://pics.me.me/what-in-the-i-say...s-19322602.pngQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
the rich guys flood the airwaves in the states the other candidates don't have $ to spend on yet LMAO
willing to escrow with druff?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisYou take Sanders, and I'll take Biden. The rest is a wash. $100 to $1k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Sure, no problem. Just let me know how much you want to do and I'll send.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryptwilling to escrow with druff?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
my $100 to your $1000, correct?
Lol no buddy. Even money since you think he's a favorite and I think Biden's a favorite. You can pick an amount between $100 and $1kQuote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
nice try angle shooterQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisLol no buddy. Even money since you think he's a favorite and I think Biden's a favorite. You can pick an amount between $100 and $1kQuote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
:lol2
How am I an angle shooter? You said it's blatantly obvious he'll win the nomination, and you don't even want to back it up. lolQuote:
Originally Posted by Kryptnice try angle shooterQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
Bought 1250 shares of Klobuchar to win Iowa.
Might buy another few thousand ahead of the debate.
Probably will sell her debate spike and then make a decision how many shares to let ride.
She has the best people on the ground and is taking the Santorum approach which only shows up late.
I would put the favorite as her, then Sanders, then Pete, think decent chance Biden finishes 4th but depending on how much last minute momentum Klobuchar can gather, he might fall to fifth.
https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/cu...vatar112_1.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Everything Warren does is so cringeworthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
She's constantly reinventing herself in order to either further her career or further her chances in the polls.
All of her life story anecdotes she tells are false. "I'm Native American", "My kids always went to public school", "I was pushed out of being a schoolteacher in 1971 because I was pregnant", etc.
Her Native American cookbook was plagiarized.
Hell, she was even a Republican at one point.
In clips like these, she tries so hard to be hip and relatable to the average person, and it just comes off so awkward. Remember the embarrassing "I'm going to announce my Presidential run, but first I'm having a beer" video?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWehvtOL_VI
Elizabeth Warren is a female nerd. She always has been. She should find some way to make that work in her favor, rather than try to posture as the cool older woman who drinks beer and enjoys dancing.
Trump was much, much better at this type of shit. Rather than pretend to be just like you, Trump unabashedly makes it clear that he's NOT like you, but that he also understands you and wants to make things better. He comes off as real and authentic even when he's bullshitting. He has that talent. Elizabeth Warren does not have it.
Think of how far we've come since the "Howard Dean scream" ruined his candidacy just 16 short years ago.
No chance that would have sunk him in 2020.
Poor Howard Dean.
warren will be remembered for two things:
1) normalizing a wealth tax
2) normalizing totally ignoring right wing pundits to their gook faces
3. pocahontas
4. blake is a black israelite
5. not washing her face... ever
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eliza...b600960c622141
i feel like thats covered under #4 somehow.
it was a bit redundant
elizabeth warren has immaculate skin for her age (practically any age)
I will bet this is another lie. This is classic Warren.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Name the amount and the terms
It’s important to try to achieve that kind of perspective in the twitter ageQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
16 years ago you could not possibly imagine a character like Trump vs a socialist like Sanders.
The process and the world is a very different place.
Better?
Get off my lawn, I suppose.
The next winner of the South Carolina primary
Williamson dropped out today. Guess the "big shift" didn't materialize. She's endorsing Bernie, since his campaign ideas are also based on magic.
Tulsi is about as relevant as Marianne Williamson at this point