Hillary Clinton endorses Joe Biden
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/28/p...den/index.html
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Hillary Clinton endorses Joe Biden
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/28/p...den/index.html
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Lol, when you completely misunderstand how PredictIt worksQuote:
thesidedish: lol "gambler" lays 1/50
You have to buy no above 109% to make an instant profit after vig. Which in the past has been possible in certain markets where there's a ton of candidates (such as the Veep market), but won't really occur in more binary markets, especially with high volume. The Dem.Nom markets at one point added up to like 125% (LOL). But regardless, you should always buy NO shares in the opposite side you want to take instead of buying Yes shares because you're still getting a better price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
At those prices, you can buy equal amounts of every no and make money regardless of the result. How much vig is the house taking?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisBetting markets don't make "predictions", they assign probabilities which you can agree or disagree with. But PredictIt has Dems as a small favorite.
My personal bookie has it at exactly 50/50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
u paid 98 cents for shares absolute STOOGE
No... I literally didn't. The markets are linked for margining. So when I buy no shares at 98 cents, I receive 2 cents for every contract I sell (actually 1.8c because of rake). It doesn't lock up more money.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
u paid 98 cents for shares absolutely STOOGE
Dish, will this blow your mind even further? No, I'm not paying every time I buy no shares, I'm having locked funds /released/ because the contracts are linked (otherwise I'd be forced to lock up like $20k). Just like the Intrade days.
wait so I can bet against morons that think of impossible outcomes?
I mean yeah... that's the idea. Bet against impossible scenarios and print moneyQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
rofl amash just jill stein'd trump.
absolutely epic heel turn.
yeah except i'm afraid it would have the reverse effect in that it would pull moderates away from biden. you're now splitting the never trump vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by blakeyeah except i'm afraid it would have the reverse effect in that it would pull moderates away from biden. you're now splitting the never trump vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
moderates dont vote libertarian, literally ever, and he used to be a republican, so theres that as well. but im also seeing a lot of people agree with your take and tbh its not clear if its just gamesmanship to reverse-psychology team retard into encouraging his run or not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blakeyeah except i'm afraid it would have the reverse effect in that it would pull moderates away from biden. you're now splitting the never trump vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
TRUMP RUNS LIKE GOD. I have a special place in my heart for John Kasich, only a guy that arrogant would stay in a 3 man race while in 4th place to ensure Cruz doesn't get enough delegates to steal the nomination at the convention
He's the Tulsi of RepublicansQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
TRUMP RUNS LIKE GOD. I have a special place in my heart for John Kasich, only a guy that arrogant would stay in a 3 man race while in 4th place to ensure Cruz doesn't get enough delegates to steal the nomination at the convention
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisHe's the Tulsi of RepublicansQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
moderates dont vote libertarian, literally ever, and he used to be a republican, so theres that as well. but im also seeing a lot of people agree with your take and tbh its not clear if its just gamesmanship to reverse-psychology team retard into encouraging his run or not.
great example of 2 of the sites libtard "geniuses" trying to spin every story for their benefit. sorry, Amash is getting votes from Bill Kristol/John McCain types that were probably voting for Biden
I don't think it's clear how this changes things on the national level but I think it hurts Trump in Michigan and he doesn't have much margin for error there.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
moderates dont vote libertarian, literally ever, and he used to be a republican, so theres that as well. but im also seeing a lot of people agree with your take and tbh its not clear if its just gamesmanship to reverse-psychology team retard into encouraging his run or not.
great example of 2 of the sites libtard "geniuses" trying to spin every story for their benefit. sorry, Amash is getting votes from Bill Kristol/John McCain types that were probably voting for Biden
yeah and to be clear i’m on the fence as to who amash running would help or hurt, but it seems way different than a jill stein type running, who you know would only hurt one candidate
I’m not sure that anyone is going out to vote for Biden in November as much as they’re voting against trump. having multiple options for who to give their vote to concerns me
LMFAO at the #metoo people not giving a shit about Creepy Joe finger blasting a lady in the hallway. Why isn't Jimmy concerned about this hypocrisy?
Has it ever been successful where an incumbent is so toxic that people actually show up to vote AGAINST a candidate in droves, or would this be the first?
I was deep in Bush country at the time; did Kerry fit this mold?
Jimmy is probably worried about the 60K + dead americans that was mishandled by trump than some old dude who may have fingered some broad 30 years ago
Agree, you're definitely seeing hypocrisy from the left by and large.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
This election and the mudslinging leading up to it are going to be truly low points in American history.
Not quite ready to plunk down on a Team Retard victory but getting close. Nominating Biden was such an abject disaster.
Funny how that's the main talking point. "Democrats don't care, oh the hypocrisy, #MuhKavanaugh". Last night I saw two back to back segments on Fox where Greg Gutfeld did nothing but rant about how MSNBC and CNN absolutely refused to even acknowledge the existence of the story. It's like all he was trying to do was make sure none of his viewers ever considered for even 1 second switching over to watch "The Media".Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Meanwhile CNN interviewed Stacey Abrahms, Buzzfeed got hold of Biden Campaigns talking points (which obviously twisted the truth) and published them and now Biden and Abrahms are getting skewered.
Democrats Will Have To Answer Questions About Tara Reade. The Biden Campaign Is Advising Them To Say Her Story “Did Not Happen.”
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...mpaign-defense
Joe Biden's campaign is twisting a New York Times story to defend against the Tara Reade allegations
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/polit...mes/index.html
also the "believe women" without any due process idea has always been an abortion
They don't care as they didn't really care about the crazy lady accusing Kavanaugh. Point is they only pretend to care in one spot.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanFunny how that's the main talking point. "Democrats don't care, oh the hypocrisy, #MuhKavanaugh". Last night I saw two back to back segments on Fox where Greg Gutfeld did nothing but rant about how MSNBC and CNN absolutely refused to even acknowledge the existence of the story. It's like all he was trying to do was make sure none of his viewers ever considered for even 1 second switching over to watch "The Media".Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Meanwhile CNN interviewed Stacey Abrahms, Buzzfeed got hold of Biden Campaigns talking points (which obviously twisted the truth) and published them and now Biden and Abrahms are getting skewered.
Democrats Will Have To Answer Questions About Tara Reade. The Biden Campaign Is Advising Them To Say Her Story “Did Not Happen.”
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...mpaign-defense
Joe Biden's campaign is twisting a New York Times story to defend against the Tara Reade allegations
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/polit...mes/index.html
100% agreeQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy JoeAgree, you're definitely seeing hypocrisy from the left by and large.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
This election and the mudslinging leading up to it are going to be truly low points in American history.
Not quite ready to plunk down on a Team Retard victory but getting close. Nominating Biden was such an abject disaster.
Ya, the dems stepping on their own dicks again. Should be a layup to beat Trump.
Prob right. This sexual assault allegation is huge. Maybe people will just forget about everything else that's going on and show up for work tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishQuote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe
Ya, the dems stepping on their own dicks again. Should be a layup to beat Trump.
It has. Did you see how the Obama Administration then perverted that into Title IX requirements for schools receiving federal funding, thus creating kangaroo courts over there every time a guy is accused of rape or sexual assault? Terrible.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
Not a big Betsy DeVos fan, but she did a good thing reversing that: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...roo-rape-court
It's funny, despite being a Repubican, I actually believed the Kavanaugh accusations for awhile. Then, as more came out, a lot got to look very suspicious, including Blasey-Ford's people blackmailing her former best friend into going along with the story, threatening that "stuff will come out" about her past drug addiction if she didn't go along with everything said. Keep in mind that the friend was a lifelong Democrat who had no reason to protect Kavanaugh.
This Reade story is tough. On one hand it looks like bullshit, but there also looks like there was something to it -- for example, Reade telling her mom about it in 1993, prompting that Larry King call.
I think it's possible that Biden was a creep and did something, but not as much as Reade is allleging.
So your stance is that dems don't care about Joe finger blasting a chick in the hallway because they're so focused on Covid? You're a little like Druff only from the left. There's a few of us on this site that can see the bullshit that both parties bring to the table and we're willing to call it out. Most are like you unfornuately, unable to simply admit your side has flaws as well, always wanting to blame the other guy. I hate to break it to you, if the dems lose this election it's 100% the dems fault.........again.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanProb right. This sexual assault allegation is huge. Maybe people will just forget about everything else that's going on and show up for work tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
It happens sometimes that an incumbent is so unpopular at the end of their term that people turn off of the candidate from the same party. W hurt McCain in 2008. The long shadow of Nixon hurt Ford in 1976.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe
It's rarer that an incumbent is so horribly unpopular that people come out to vote against him when he is still running. The clearest example since 1900 is probably Herbert Hoover in 1932. It would have happened to Johnson in 1968 if he had chosen to run again.
Other one-termers like Bush senior and Jimmy Carter weren't really hated, they just fell victim to a bad economy and in Bush's case a third-party candidate that drew a lot of votes from him. Hoover had a bad economy too obviously (Great Depression), but the difference with him was that he said loud and clear "I'm not doing shit about it, you're on your own," and people hated him for it.
The timing is definitely suspect, as was the case with Kavanaugh as I've previously noted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt has. Did you see how the Obama Administration then perverted that into Title IX requirements for schools receiving federal funding, thus creating kangaroo courts over there every time a guy is accused of rape or sexual assault? Terrible.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
Not a big Betsy DeVos fan, but she did a good thing reversing that: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...roo-rape-court
It's funny, despite being a Repubican, I actually believed the Kavanaugh accusations for awhile. Then, as more came out, a lot got to look very suspicious, including Blasey-Ford's people blackmailing her former best friend into going along with the story, threatening that "stuff will come out" about her past drug addiction if she didn't go along with everything said. Keep in mind that the friend was a lifelong Democrat who had no reason to protect Kavanaugh.
This Reade story is tough. On one hand it looks like bullshit, but there also looks like there was something to it -- for example, Reade telling her mom about it in 1993, prompting that Larry King call.
I think it's possible that Biden was a creep and did something, but not as much as Reade is allleging.
Biden has been in the mainstream consciousness since early 2008 - presunably this escaped the Obama people, he survived several rounds of #metoo when pols were dropping like flies, made it through primary season with nary a peep when it's been out there for years that's he is at minimum handsy and creepy...only now for it to drop.
And it seems credible but true or not, the damage is done.
The left cares about this issue; obv republicans don't give a shit, putting a serial offender in the highest office and nearly electing a credibly accused pedophile to the Senate.
Buckle up for more swamp draining.
I don't know that the timing is suspect. She didn't see any reason to tell the story before he was the nominee for president. Kavanaugh's accused didn't see any reason to tell the story before he was nominated to the Supreme Court. And nobody would have covered it before. Though they would have when Biden was VP or VP nominee.
It's very hard to tell what happened in this case. It's tough for women to come forward like this because they usually get skewered in the media, so when one does come forward it's hard to just dismiss them. And there is circumstantial evidence.
On the other hand, there's no concrete evidence. And men who do this usually don't only do it once, so it's odd that other accusers haven't spoken up as they did with Trump (what are we up to, a few dozen?) and Kavanaugh. There are no hints from the man himself as there were with Trump's pussy-grabbing comment or Kavanaugh's yearbook comments. Joe gets a little too cozy sometimes but that's what men of his generation did and it's a long way from that to forcible finger-banging.
It's also possible that both of them truly believe in their own version of events. Memories can shift and fade over time, which is why eyewitness testimony is so unreliable and why it's nearly worthless after a long time has passed. They may just remember things differently.
Allegations like this should be considered and investigated. Kavanaugh's should have been too but they weren't. The Senate scheduled a quick vote and the FBI was told to complete their investigation before the vote and if not then too bad so sad. But ultimately we should try to get to the truth, or if that's impossible then at least a range of realistic possibilities. The hyperpartisan politics and de-emphasizing of fact in our society rarely allows for this to happen anymore outside of a courtroom.
In my mind, assuming the worst about this incident, Trump is still way worse as a sexual predator and his record as president is such that I still have no hesitation in voting for Biden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
you know when they should be investigated? after the woman (or guy, i suppose) goes to the police. what if they never went to the police? then the media shouldn't even report it.
it's just too easy to destroy someone with mere allegations.
the fbi should have investigated kavanuagh? on 20 year old allegations that she never went to the police over? if that's what we do, get ready for an fbi investigation before every single supreme court nomination. who would even want the job having to go through this?
liberals used to love the idea that "it's better to let 100 guilty people go free than convict 1 innocent one." guess that's out the window now.
thank you alyssa milano
Kavanaugh’s yearbook? Come on man. Biden is far more sketchy than Kavanaugh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Anyway how it’s being treated now by the left media is fine imo. My point is that they should have given Kavanaugh the same respect.
My other point is that Jimmy is the hypocrisy police of the site but only calls out hypocrisy on one side. Dare I say that’s a bit........hypocritical?
Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
ugh here we go again
Democrats don't have to answer for shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanFunny how that's the main talking point. "Democrats don't care, oh the hypocrisy, #MuhKavanaugh". Last night I saw two back to back segments on Fox where Greg Gutfeld did nothing but rant about how MSNBC and CNN absolutely refused to even acknowledge the existence of the story. It's like all he was trying to do was make sure none of his viewers ever considered for even 1 second switching over to watch "The Media".Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Meanwhile CNN interviewed Stacey Abrahms, Buzzfeed got hold of Biden Campaigns talking points (which obviously twisted the truth) and published them and now Biden and Abrahms are getting skewered.
Democrats Will Have To Answer Questions About Tara Reade. The Biden Campaign Is Advising Them To Say Her Story “Did Not Happen.”
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...mpaign-defense
Joe Biden's campaign is twisting a New York Times story to defend against the Tara Reade allegations
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/polit...mes/index.html
Who cares if Biden put his fingers up some women's vagina more than 27 years ago?
Trump supporters didn't give a fuck that Trump raped and sexually harassed women for decades.
Trump makes fun of disabled people.
Now Democrats will make a disabled person President.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/resiz...RFRZS2QM2Q.gif
A lot of truth to this. Similarly in 2016 people hated Hillary so much that many voted for Trump just because of that hate. I was in that “anyone but Hillary” boat for a long time but as it became clear that Trump was a legit retard I had to sit out (actually burned my veto on Johnson lulz). Will be interesting to see how many sit out 2020 because they can’t bring themselves to vote for these two current retards or if hate for Trump will bring people out. I’ll be sitting out again unless Biden dies and The Dems fine a better option.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactorDemocrats don't have to answer for shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
Who cares if Biden put his fingers up some women's vagina more than 27 years ago?
Trump supporters didn't give a fuck that Trump raped and sexually harassed women for decades.
Trump makes fun of disabled people.
Now Democrats will make a disabled person President.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/resiz...RFRZS2QM2Q.gif
Carter wasn't hated, that part is correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakIt happens sometimes that an incumbent is so unpopular at the end of their term that people turn off of the candidate from the same party. W hurt McCain in 2008. The long shadow of Nixon hurt Ford in 1976.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe
It's rarer that an incumbent is so horribly unpopular that people come out to vote against him when he is still running. The clearest example since 1900 is probably Herbert Hoover in 1932. It would have happened to Johnson in 1968 if he had chosen to run again.
Other one-termers like Bush senior and Jimmy Carter weren't really hated, they just fell victim to a bad economy and in Bush's case a third-party candidate that drew a lot of votes from him. Hoover had a bad economy too obviously (Great Depression), but the difference with him was that he said loud and clear "I'm not doing shit about it, you're on your own," and people hated him for it.
However, the belief among the 1980 general public was that he was a nice guy, but an incompetent President. They elected a peanut farmer in 1976 because he was the opposite of Nixon, and then they realized four years later that they elected a peanut farmer. On the other side, you had a grandfatherly former actor and governor who spoke really well, and he won easily.
The problem Democrats have is that the people who HATE Trump already hated him 4 years ago, and already showed up to vote against him 4 years ago. He still won. These people hate him even more now, but their vote still only counts once -- unless they show up multiple times in "no voter ID" states, which wouldn't surprise me. (However, I don't think it would be widespread enough to affect the results, so no, I'm not trying to plant the seeds of "stolen election" crap.)
Anyway, this election WAS going to be a competition between Trump's controversial behavior and unpresidential social media presence versus Biden's senility and creepy behavior.
Now it's going to be about the coronavirus. If we are doing better than expected in November, he will win. If we are doing worse, we will lose. Right now, "expected" itself is hard to define, as we are still rather early in the entire thing. Much of this will be out of Trump's control. For example, if a miracle treatment comes out in July, and the country roars back to normal, with a suddenly-booming recovery because everyone was itching to go out and do stuff, Trump will get credit and win. If we are in financial disaster in November, or if there is zero progress against the virus, he will probably lose.
It mostly comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania at this point, though I think Biden is taking PA because of his longtime popularity there. Iowa, Florida, and Ohio have become redder, and aren't the quite battleground states they used to be.
i don't agree with the bolded part. black people generally despise trump and they didn't come out for hillary at all. it's hard to imagine biden doesn't do much better there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffCarter wasn't hated, that part is correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
However, the belief among the 1980 general public was that he was a nice guy, but an incompetent President. They elected a peanut farmer in 1976 because he was the opposite of Nixon, and then they realized four years later that they elected a peanut farmer. On the other side, you had a grandfatherly former actor and governor who spoke really well, and he won easily.
The problem Democrats have is that the people who HATE Trump already hated him 4 years ago, and already showed up to vote against him 4 years ago. He still won. These people hate him even more now, but their vote still only counts once -- unless they show up multiple times in "no voter ID" states, which wouldn't surprise me. (However, I don't think it would be widespread enough to affect the results, so no, I'm not trying to plant the seeds of "stolen election" crap.)
Anyway, this election WAS going to be a competition between Trump's controversial behavior and unpresidential social media presence versus Biden's senility and creepy behavior.
Now it's going to be about the coronavirus. If we are doing better than expected in November, he will win. If we are doing worse, we will lose. Right now, "expected" itself is hard to define, as we are still rather early in the entire thing. Much of this will be out of Trump's control. For example, if a miracle treatment comes out in July, and the country roars back to normal, with a suddenly-booming recovery because everyone was itching to go out and do stuff, Trump will get credit and win. If we are in financial disaster in November, or if there is zero progress against the virus, he will probably lose.
It mostly comes down to Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania at this point, though I think Biden is taking PA because of his longtime popularity there. Iowa, Florida, and Ohio have become redder, and aren't the quite battleground states they used to be.
also we'll see if young people sit out again as their hatred for trump only increased. they tend not to vote at all though, except for obama.
anyway, 80,000 total votes. that's it.
trump will have to increase his base somewhere if biden does even marginally better with the black community.
Biden will do better with black vote for sure. That's a big reason he beat Bernie. Also I imagine the Obamas will be out in full force.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakei don't agree with the bolded part. black people generally despise trump and they didn't come out for hillary at all. it's hard to imagine biden doesn't do much better there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
also we'll see if young people sit out again as their hatred for trump only increased. they tend not to vote at all though, except for obama.
anyway, 80,000 total votes. that's it.
trump will have to increase his base somewhere if biden does even marginally better with the black community.