Would love to see a Dodgers/Bluejays World Series.
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Would love to see a Dodgers/Bluejays World Series.
LET'S GO!!!
uh oh
Good to see order is restored in my worldQuote:
Originally Posted by big dick
dodgers pitcher knows he is doomed
Cleveland is hot right now
Maeda has been kinda fail since late Sept. That's why Dodgers went off at +190.
Still, I put $220 on Dodgers +1.5 -110 just for fun.
Idiot announcers though.
"If you're going to get a leadoff hit, this is the guy you want on the bases"
.... about ADRIAN GONZALEZ!
:wtf
Druff, how can Roberts not play Utley?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I know lefty-lefty bullshit and he's 2-for-12 lifetime against Lester but this man has to be in the lineup if you guys got any shot to beat the Cubs. Utley is clutch as hell and does a lot of little things that can help you win a ballgame. I'd be furious if I was a Dodger fan.
Eddie Vedder looking pretty weathered in the front row.
Seeing Fox show all these lame celebrities at Cubs games just solidified my hatred for the Cubs. Their whole fan base is pretty lame.
Where is that faggot big dick to say how great the Cubs are? He should be posting shortly.
fuck yeah!!!!
:failQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Ok got the invite for tomorrow. I have for years wanted to see Kershaw live. Probably the number one pitcher I have wanted to see in the last 10 years. Just a stud. If Cubs can beat him series over. I don't think I will bet anything. Just enjoy. Tonight was easy money against that starting pitcher. The interesting ? Will be if Kershaw can get three games in this series. 2 , 5 and 7? Part of 7?
Well, it's up to Kershaw. Otherwise I don't see the Dodgers taking 4 of the final 5 against a team like the Cubs.
Honestly, when Grandal grounded out to end the top of the 8th, stranding runners at 2nd and 3rd, I knew the Dodgers were probably losing, despite having just come back from 3-1 to 3-3.
I don't even blame Blanton for what happened. I mean, yeah, you don't throw a pitch anywhere close to the plate 0-2 with 2 out and bases loaded against a power/strikeout hitter, but Blanton has done such a great job for the Dodgers this year. He's entitled to some mistakes.
Roberts did too much overthinking this time with his weird moves. How do you intentionally walk a batter to put the go-ahead run in the 8th on 3rd? That's just mind-boggling.
I know he wanted Chapman out of the game, and that move forced Maddon to pinch hit for Chapman.
HOWEVER, Chapman just burned thorugh 17 pitches, and allowed the bases-loaded tying single. Dodgers should have been fine with taking their chances against him in the 9th.
You just don't put the go-ahead runner on 3rd. Also, the intentional walk to Heyward in order to face the super-hot Baez was weird, even thought Baez ended up flying out.
Most maddening was the fact that the man intentionally walked with runners on 1st and 2nd was Chris Coghlan -- he of the .188 batting average.
Yes, Roberts intentionally walked a batter to push the go-ahead run to 3rd, avoiding a .188 hitter, simply to get Chapman out of the game.
As I said, he was overthinking.
His unconventional bullpen management in NLDS Game 5 was smart and creative. Today he was just dumb.
This also bailed out Maddon, who foolishly pinch hit for a highly effective Lester after just 6 innings, and with Lester having thrown just 77 pitches. The score was 3-1 then. The bullpen then surrendered 2 runs just two innings later.
Watch out for Kershaw, though.
He's on 3 days rest, but you could see the fire in his eyes when he came out to save NLDS Game 5.
I think he has his confidence back.
I'd like to dispel this silly notion that Kershaw is pitching on short rest tonight. Hes actually pitching on regular rest. He last started a game on 10/11. 4 days in between is considered full rest. Thats just a standard 5 man rotation. Now you will say but he pitched in the game the other night. You must realize that starting pitchers always throw a side session between starts. This is routinely anywhere from 20-40 pitches depending on how they feel and if there is anything they are working on. Kershaw threw 7 pitches in getting the save in game 5. This would have been on his standard "side" day. So really I could argue Kershaw should be well rested considering his side session was only 7 pitches and hes otherwise on full rest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It just seems like Dodger fans are trying to build in a win/win argument for Kershaw. If he struggles tonight its going to be "well the guys a warrior, he pitched on short rest and kept his team in it." If he does well its going to be OMG OMG OMG did you see what Kershaw did on SHORT REST! Hes the best pitcher in post season baseball history...............................
I think it allows Maddon to pitch him in game four if he needs to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Searles,
Any of this advanced or "new think" playoff bullpen usage look familiar?
I get a kick out of reading this after years reading your misguided belief: "baseball managers have the least effect on the game outcome of all sports".Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am curious where this misinformation came from. I know you lived in the Bovada world of bad lines but I thought you were self aware.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I have in the past asked folks, especially you and Daly, to post about your process. Crickets. I am pretty much self taught and havent read the sports betting forums as I expect the stupidity you find on 2+2. It sorta works for me so far but I could learn more.
I do use SBR. I am fascinated by the books reporting process to this site. I am guarded and vigilant about the data I see but it is a tool I use.
SBR listed the game as "going off" at -190 +180. I have no idea where you got your number. BetOnline opened with -160. I don't really understand what that SBR starting number represents or how it is derived. It's just a thing - it represents a casual starting point.
I would think you would be in the market for another book or two. I have written about BetOnline. They quite often are early and if you come ready with an idea you might snap a great line. I often take a starting position with the intent to trade around this initial buy. As the dumb books like Bovada come online you can unwind or hedge.
Sorry for the detour. I always viewed this forum as bar room banter. One idea or subject morphs into another. Sometimes the gold turns up unexpectedly. Lol, most often not but you keep panning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Not sure what you're talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI am curious where this misinformation came from. I know you lived in the Bovada world of bad lines but I thought you were self aware.
I have in the past asked folks, especially you and Daly, to post about your process. Crickets. I am pretty much self taught and havent read the sports betting forums as I expect the stupidity you find on 2+2. It sorta works for me so far but I could learn more.
I do use SBR. I am fascinated by the books reporting process to this site. I am guarded and vigilant about the data I see but it is a tool I use.
SBR listed the game as "going off" at -190 +180. I have no idea where you got your number. BetOnline opened with -160. I don't really understand what that SBR starting number represents or how it is derived. It's just a thing - it represents a casual starting point.
I would think you would be in the market for another book or two. I have written about BetOnline. They quite often are early and if you come ready with an idea you might snap a great line. I often take a starting position with the intent to trade around this initial buy. As the dumb books like Bovada come online you can unwind or hedge.
Sorry for the detour. I always viewed this forum as bar room banter. One idea or subject morphs into another. Sometimes the gold turns up unexpectedly. Lol, most often not but you keep panning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The +195/-225 line I posted was standard at most books when I posted it, and it stayed fairly close.
Some books would have been +195/-215, but whatever.
If you got +180 anywhere near game time, you got ripped off.
Guess I have no idea what you were talking about when you said the Dodgers "went off +190"
What does that mean if not the opening line.
Yeah, in my world the line went from Cubs -160 to -225. Dodgers +140 to +195 You logged in and found a number. Ok.
Our minds don't work the same usually.
Hendricks has actually been better than Kershaw lately and Cubs are still home. Feels low stress.
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 908 Chicago Cubs +112 for Game
"Went off at +190" means the game was +190 when the first pitch was thrown.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Dodgers tickets, still very high priced compared to both the NLDS and previous NLCS appearances, have fallen about 10% for Game 3 since yesterday.
They will really start to fall if the Dodgers don't win.
Not good news for Dodgers.
Hendricks looked excellent in the first, with 2 quick strikeouts and a weak groundout.
Now time to see how Kershaw does.
That's funny. I'm an idiot. See the way my head works? I was only thinking about the wagering and the prices. Forgot about the actual baseball game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thank you AGon
Now I get a good price
10/16/2016 8:26:14 PM
Description:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at CHICAGO CUBS [BATTER PROPS] Moneyline CUBS +180
Edit
I am fully aware the Dodgers bullpen is in better shape.
Scaling in as the money line rises as long as a one run differential. Added at +210
Go Cubs
Re: last night's game
I firmly believe that Roberts made the correct decision.
The decision was:
Blanton vs Coghlan (8-17 .471) runners on 1st and 2nd.
Blanton vs Montero (2-11 .182) bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.
Avilan vs Contreras bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.
I don't think the decision is even close, but even if it were the most erroneous managerial decisions move the game odds at most 2% (not a made up number). The play is on the field.
Blanton tried to bury a slider 0-2 and instead went middle-middle, that's what it cane down to.
Henry,
Would you have taken a Cubs run line -1 +210 pregame?
I am not saying this is my thinking - prolly more the warmth a season of taking this line and winning.
I may have but after watching the zone in the first inning and how crisp Kershaw looks, this ballgame is over my friend.
Joe Buck may mention the 2-6 postseason record 4.50+ era to entertain the masses and reach the lowest common denominators out there. But lets look at the 70ip by the predictive stats: Same k/9, same BB/9, same FIP, same xFIP, same SIERA, same truERA. The FIP is lower than Bums over his 100 inning sample that gave him the label of "greatest postseason picher of all-time". I'll predict these things balance out over the next decade. Regression to the mean.
Good luck making money betting against Kershaw tonight, let me know how that works out for you.
Small sample sizes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry
Even if you want to take these as gospel, then remove Blanton and put someone else in to face Coghlan. It's not like we are talking about Kris Bryant here. The guy is a .188 hitter.
Walking the go-ahead to 3rd could not be correct.
Yes, the biggest mistake was Blanton's, by making that bad pitch.
You should tell Sanlmar that managerial decisions in MLB are not as important as coaching decisions in the NBA. He doesn't seem to believe or understand this.
Kershaw is breezing.
On the other side the Dodger are not an offensive juggernaut.
I came with a plan. I just took one last helping at +250. I have reached Max Pain.
I mean Coghlan's season average was .188 (Montero's .216) but he was a 13% better than league average hitter for the Cubs this season while Montero was 17% worse than league average this year (113 wRC+ vs 83 wRC+). Coghlan was bad in Oakland, I have no idea why that is, but I think he's a much better hitter than Montero at this point in their careers. But my thinking had more to do with removing Chapman. Fun to talk about either way.
And I agree baseball managers have less of an impact than coaches or managers in other sports. Belichick and Pop hold more value than Maddon or Bochy, I didn't know that was even arguable. And I'd rather have a baseball manager that knows how to help his young players through their struggles over a long grinding season than a good in game manager, if I had to choose one or the other.
Edit: Smoltz just mentioned Mike Montgomery may become a good lefty starter as soon as next season. Here's a nice summary article on why that may be:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mik...sixth-starter/
LOL @ all the people who counted the Dodgers out after 1 game.
Cubs aren't hitting in the postseason, if you haven't noticed.
Time to continue that 108-year curse.
Sadly I will probably miss the NLCS in person, as ticket prices are just insane, likely thanks to all the LA-residing Cubs fans.
I am shaken to my core. AGon & Kershaw. Like a knife in my heart. Lol, to learn Kershaw is a hunting knife brand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Fox puts up 28 ERA for Kershaw in post season 7th inning.
7th inning first batter and a quick walk by Kershaw. The truth is about to be revealed. My understanding of life will be vindicated.
Kershaw was brilliant and the pain is intolerable.
Yup, not over. Better drama. I have loved every playoff game.
fuck offQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
dodgers are +400 You should load up on them to win the world series.
cubs only + 130 for some odd reason.
Please Blu Jays can you at least make a series out of this?