:failQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
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:failQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Red Auerbach theory. Don’t matter if you lose one or both, pays the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22:failQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Good day to back the Phillys
Sports wagering and frankly all market based wagering is about adjustments. Cat and mouse.
MLB favorites have been crushing this year. It usually doesn’t last this long before regression sets in.
So everyone was getting cute with R/L’s. I posted 3 R/L’s yesterday. That’s what you do in a heavy favorites environment. I was just schooled that the books have been shrinking the premium for R/L. Rascals.
No trend lasts forever. Yesterday the dogs ran wild in the park. Check the soles of your shoes.
I got my shit pushed in last night... Woke up today, thought I won all my bets... Then I realized I was looking at the scores from the night before..
Hey Druff, you’re in Vegas for that poker thing now?
If you borrow a button-down Oxford shirt and comb your hair you might get past the velvet ropes and save some $.Quote:
NO JEWS ON JUNE 1
To celebrate the launch of the first Circa | Sports sportsbook we’re offering no-Jews bets (zero-cent lines) on pro basketball, pro baseball, and the Champions League Final. Offer valid only on bets placed over the counter on full-game sides played on June 1.
Detroit +121
KC +100
Detroit down 3-1 after 7 and win 4-3 with 2-run HR in 9th.
KC down 7-1, now 7-7.
Wow.
Wtf?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Where is this from?
Most people don't think I'm a Jew by looks because I have an average sized nose and am tall.
I go to temple and feel like Shawn Bradley.
You'd think you'd win the game when you come back from 7-1.
Nope.
What a fucking failteam the Royals are.
:fail2
The new Circa Book at Golden Gate on Fremont.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWtf?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Where is this from?
Most people don't think I'm a Jew by looks because I have an average sized nose and am tall.
I go to temple and feel like Shawn Bradley.
First time I heard the promotion I thought I heard “no Jews”. It was “no juice”.
The owner, Derek Stevens, says he welcomes sharp action. But given you didn’t pick up on the joke - how “sharp” can you really be?
Let’s hope so because I’m taking Texas tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The Texas game is so weird. Looks super obvious to take Rangers, and indeed almost all the action is on them. Except a lot of sharps seem to be on KC.
The the line for Texas is surprisingly low.
Looks like Trapper John MD, but no way I'm betting the other side.
I will take this though:
Texas (Minor) vs. KC (Junis) - Under 10 -108
The only real sharp play in this game was +1.5 KC as u can see by the line movement I'll take what I can get when its that obviousQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
U guys all blow Mike Minor and I'm not blaming him but he's a s8 defective pitcher from the Braves and was drafted in 2009.
U guys around here talk about him like he's Maddox Glavine or Smoltz he's pretty much been shitty most of his mlb life.
Sprinkle in the Raptors that was a easy parlay payday.
Now I give you gold.
Monica Puig +126 WTA French Open
Your welcome
I was giving you a living, showing you the playbook I put together off my beats and that wasn't enough for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
We are still live on all the women’s picks pre-tournament
Halep & Yasiel Puig are on a collision course.
I don’t know what’s going on with you but here’s an advantage play I am laying on your lap. A tip of the cap would be a minimum response.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe new Circa Book at Golden Gate on Fremont.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
First time I heard the promotion I thought I heard “no Jews”. It was “no juice”.
The owner, Derek Stevens, says he welcomes sharp action. But given you didn’t pick up on the joke - how “sharp” can you really be?
They are going to be running lines like -135 +135. If you have a pulse, at minimum all you do is arb your off shore or another book your gonna make money.
I think you have Bovada and they are usually whack. Boom
I think the retail limit is $5000 on Baseball.
I’m calling a shot here that you will see some effect with the off-shores. Let’s see if someone writes a story the next day. Some guys are coming in with duffel bags and that’s okay as the whole point is to build their volume thru promotion.
Remember Ben playing Hakeem Olajuwon one on one? Well, Kershaw is pitching and I think the overnight lines will open at -200. (This is where we get into 20-30 cent territory). Kershaw could actually win and I make money. Just an example. We can discuss if you wish.
Hey, it not a NJ sportsbook but it’s a good opportunity for a Vegas punter.
Shes no Monica Seles but I wouldn't bet against her right now. WinkQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI was giving you a living, showing you the playbook I put together off my beats and that wasn't enough for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
We are still live on all the women’s picks pre-tournament
Halep & Yasiel Puig are on a collision course.
Puig is a underdog again? +138
U boys and girls no what to do.
I think she can beat Halep also and that's gonna be big plus money.
I gave you the dark horse and Saketome has no chance to win this tourney. Not her game not her surface.
Puig or bust LOL
Puig aint no 16 yr old chump. This Iga chick has had this set up on a plate for her and its her Birthday to boot go figure?
Im still sticking with the more experienced chick in this one.
I make my women's tennis picks like I like to get laid. Experience wins out go get blown by a 18 yr old and u will no what I mean.
Boring keep copying pornhub bitch this is real life. Spitting on my cock only makes this and u more weird freak.
Plz bring in the 25 yr old who has been here b4.. LOL
And your giving me plus money?? Plz tell me how i can get over on ppl like this always without trying!!
Your Welcome.
What makes you think I don’t tail your tennis bGuy? I like $
MOBILE - TENNIS - WTA - 203524 PUIG, MONICA +130 FOR MATCH
This was a quality pick. I checked. Didn’t need to but I did.
Speaking of fat puigs - Osaka.
My long shot Bencic died. We will get it back.
Hell no u arent dead on those picks. Sake can come out of her draw.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Halep is your best shot but the odds told you that.
I'd ride Puig til she dies like Yasil did in a Dodgers uniform. I think she wins again today bro.
But wtf does that mean?
Thats one step up from Petey Dc and still 2 steps down from C-Money and the Poison Clan
Thx badguy.
Just so we can continue to talk, those were picks for quarters .... the 4 quarter merge into the semifinal
I was just picking who would win each quarter. Well, 3 of the 4 qtrs. I never took a shot at the winner of the whole tournament.
I still smile thinking about the Australian Open. That was incredible.
This shits confusing!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I think u r good with the Sake draw cuz u can buy back when she plays the Beast of the East if u want. Shes gonna be a slim fav over Keys and a Underdog to wiilams. if all goes to plan. Ton of live bets there.
Halep is your money pick cuz her draw is a joke. She will be heavy fav all the way through her semis?
Or am I missing something
I'm on Puig.
I need some Puig to root for this year.
Did u get on her yesterday You no ac having bastard My safes lockedQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
6-0 first set for Yasiel Puig but then 3-6, 3-6Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23Did u get on her yesterday You no ac having bastard My safes lockedQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Brilliant start.
Don’t worry about it. Gimme a pick or wrestle Druff
Tell ya what. I’ll give YOU a pick. My favorite is “my Shirona” Soroka Atlanta but I snapped it when the retail lines came out yesterday at 2pm. It’s gone stratospheric. -270. Braves win
Also love
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 951 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ -130 for Game W
Lol, late replacement Michael Irvin vs Kershaw later today. I have a full card. Lotta runs today you sausage lovers grand salami over
Yankees (German) -130 vs. Boston (Porcello)
Sorry Guys.
I guess 18 yr old pussy still playes.
Fcking joke
Id take Halep to win the whole think now.
I got so jealous of Sanlmar that I had to start winning again in baseball to keep up.
Some late min ideas. Best to worst
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 913 Minnesota Twins +111 for Game W
Daly would agree, plus $ on Twins is irresistible
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 916 Chicago White Sox -114 for Game W
Giolito w/ WS - one of those LA HS power trio I love
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 912 San Diego Padres -185 for Game L
Big gamble - I don’t believe Trevor Richards Marlins is real
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 902 Washington Nationals/Cincinnati Reds under 4 +100 for 1st 5 Innings W
Scherzer v Gray. Sick play in today’s rabbit ball era. Prolly regret it
All 3 NHL Stanley Cup games went over. This game it will not. Blues will get payback and it will end 3-1 or 2-1
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[910] LA DODGERS -190
( ACTION ) PENDING
[912] SDG PADRES -200
( ACTION ) PENDING
[916] CHI WHITE SOX -120
( ACTION ) PENDING
[924] NY YANKEES +105
( ACTION ) PENDING
50/342
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar6-0 first set for Yasiel Puig but then 3-6, 3-6Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
Brilliant start.
Don’t worry about it. Gimme a pick or wrestle Druff
Tell ya what. I’ll give YOU a pick. My favorite is “my Shirona” Soroka Atlanta but I snapped it when the retail lines came out yesterday at 2pm. It’s gone stratospheric. -270. Braves win
Also love
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 951 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ -130 for Game W
looks like you went 2-0 from what I can discern, anyway, congrats.
in vegas now and had a piss poor night in the pitts, so any other locks would be appreciated?
Daily, you too??
we need trip report of high stakes shenanigans when shit starts to turn to the good..Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
looks like you went 2-0 from what I can discern, anyway, congrats.
in vegas now and had a piss poor night in the pitts, so any other locks would be appreciated?
Daily, you too??
Here’s a Teaser and a great representation of how my luck going:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPeniswe need trip report of high stakes shenanigans when shit starts to turn to the good..Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Wanting to make a quick dent in my balance I make a call bet on a bacc table, which just means they extend me credit wo a marker and throw a laminar on the felt for it, anyway I call out for $10k on player. I squeeze out a natural 8, dealer rolls the bank over and it’s a fucking queen and nine.
Makes you rethink your why you “enjoy” this again.
yeah no kidding...jesus Christ...like getting 20/BJ and having the dealer have an A under a T showing...Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendHere’s a Teaser and a great representation of how my luck going:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Wanting to make a quick dent in my balance I make a call bet on a bacc table, which just means they extend me credit wo a marker and throw a laminar on the felt for it, anyway I call out for $10k on player. I squeeze out a natural 8, dealer rolls the bank over and it’s a fucking queen and nine.
Makes you rethink your why you “enjoy” this again.
Maybe I don’t know what I’m talking about and I deserve to ha e my $$ taken from me... but fucking hell if the reds shouldn’t be closer to -180 tonight.
Two small home favorites today:
St. Louis (G. Cabrera) -108 vs. Cincinnati (L. Castillo)
NOTES: Sharps love the Cardinals here. The magic has worn off for Castillo, who has looked hittable in his last few outings.
Angels (Canning) -107 vs. Oakland (Montas)
NOTES: Rookie Canning has quietly been excellent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
St. Louis (G. Cabrera) -108 vs. Cincinnati (L. Castillo)
NOTES: Sharps love the Cardinals here. The magic has worn off for Castillo, who has looked hittable in his last few outings.
Bro no sharps liked this game this line moved cuz of the rain delay? Then got bet down more b4 it went off. The only sharp money on this was on Cinncy when it opened. Just cuz a line moves doesn't mean it sharp money.
Hell your other game you took against Oakland had a ton of sharp money. On Oakland?
You may win both or lose both but your statements aren't true. And your in for a long seaon if that's how u decifer sharp money.
Call any book public was on St. Louis here.
Fck Puig.
U should just retire from poker and bet the Dodgers every night.
FYI I laid money on padduck like a idiot parlayed with the under in oakland.
This padduck fuck is tipping pitches and I would run not walk if u ever see him -130 or more!! Until he wins 3 in a row or has 3 quality starts.
Enjoy your night.
Wish I’d seen this in time. Still losing so need a big play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
I’ve been quiet because the poker players need their positivity during these troubling times. However, it is important for the thread not overlook your wisdom.
I’d prolly rather stick a pencil in my eye than argue how lines are made and moved and by who.
The only sharp money on this was on Cinncy when it opened. Pretty much this. The sharps hammer out the line overnight with the market makers like Pinnacle. They are armed with their models and algos and if shit don’t match their ideas they bet into the number.
Some retail books open 12 hrs later like Betonline. They just copy the market makers. The limits are bigger and shit gets pushed in. But they spend their money on bonuses and promos not traders. They are pretty stupid. Multiple retail books share the same line services for that reason.
Honest to god, I swear BetOnline (as an example) doesn’t even know WHY they move their line. Their service tells them the market maker moved more likely than not. You certainly can’t read “intelligence” into the move.
Don’t worry about them, though. They always have the best of it. 110 juice. At 4.5% even your dumb nephew can make book. Their hold protects them from harm.
It’s the market makers that take the risk early. They can be wildly off and get hurt. Some late 6:00pm move by JustBet or YouWager scarcely means shit IMO.
The overnight market makers and the early retail books were the meaningful sharp action.
During the course of the day you will hear people talk about the opening line. You might see a number that they claim was the opening number somewhere. Let me tell you, if you are up late and watching you will laugh cause quite often THAT IS NOT WHAT THE OPENING NUMBER ACTUALLY WAS. They are hiding the big and important moves sometimes.
I got off track. The most important and informative “sharp action” was at the open like badguy said.
Late “sharp action” sounds like the wisdom Vegas Dave would deliver. The “insiders”.
Well anyway. Good to see Druff reformed his “under” lifestyle. Look at tonight’s scores. Like WTF. Salami city.
Another adjustment is acceptance of the fact that baseball atm is favorites. Big favorites. Again look at tonight. Bet them all. Except Tampa Bay Snell. Snell is the WORST ROI pitcher in the MLB. Sorry, it’s no longer Kershaw. So if you were off Tampa and bet the big favorites you banked units.
I do not understand trying to get cute with Reds/Cards. Two dreadful teams and two dreadful pitchers at “flip ‘em” prices. You’re just gonna hurt yourself. You don’t need to work so hard and take such risk.
I feel so dirty
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 911 Los Angeles Dodgers -190 for Game
Lol, Dodger rotation number was 911
Markets always adjust. Favorites might not work later. But for now it’s pointless to think