Quote:
Originally Posted by
Draymond
He is going to latch on to the Portman infrastructure, who is running for reelection in the US Senate in Ohio. They are confident he will win going awya. Coupled with Pence who will drag the IN border counties, its deemed a lock. Pence is not widely known, except in that region where he grew up where he is widely popular. I was told its a lock, with all that said, I know nothing about grass root politics of random counties.
I can say fairly confidently without looking that Romney won every single county bordering Indiana last election by wide margins. Thats Children of the Corn Country. Think Ben Roethlisberger. You really can't improve upon previous results.
If Trump wins Ohio, which isn't a stretch, he wins because of older white voters in places like my county. Portman won 82 of 88 counties. He lost mine. The old unemployed angry mill worker loves trump, and it makes me uncomfortable. Local talk radio is all Trump all angry all day.
A lot depends on Kasich. Governors are way more important than Senators in terms of polling stations, etc. He certainly wants Trump to lose, but I don't know if he'll go so far as to prevent him from winning. He's a strange dude, so he's hard to read, as opposed to a Cruz who would drive blacks to the polling stations if he could to prevent a Trump victory. He bet his future on a Trump loss last night.
PA is a much harder pull for Trump than Ohio. I don't see it. This could be the first election in a long time where as goes Ohio goes the country isn't true.
The perfect storm that produces a Trump victory is mid-term laziness by Dems in Governor races in the rust belt coming back to haunt them when faced with an uninspiring candidate and the normal polling shenanigans. I struggle to see inner-city citizens waiting 8 hours in line to vote for Hillary. This is where Kasich can make or break Ohio for Trump, as he can influence that 8 hour wait down to 20 minutes if he really wants to. I'd wait the 8 hours if I had to, but it would be to vote against Trump, not because I love my candidate. I'm white though, so I'll be in and out in 5 minutes. I can go a month without seeing a Hispanic person or Asian person if I don't go to a Mexican restaurant or get takeout. Its really America 1950 demographics, and old, so it's a problem for Dems here.
Its basically 2-1 on predicit. That feels about right. Trump is a unique candidate. He could lose (insert normally red state with high Hispanic population) and win Ohio. Its really easy to see him getting close, and winning states that usually spell victory, yet not being able to quite get there. Even if the polls are off a few points, he needs them to be off by like 7 or 8% to have a true chance because he's going to lose a few % just to his horrible organization.
