Only you can play CBJ successfully. RespectQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Do I clip the green wire or the red wire? I got no clue.
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Only you can play CBJ successfully. RespectQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Do I clip the green wire or the red wire? I got no clue.
They were mocking the Celtics the entire conference. That was before the Warriors beatdown, of courseQuote:
Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly
Did you go or were you nearby?
Maybe that was you solving equations on the blackboard at night.
2-1, but loss here due to double bet on Boston.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Wash/Jets o1.5 1p
Wash moneyline
Flames/Vegas u1.5 1p
Flames moneyline
Ducks/LA o1.5 1p *going on a hunch here. If you're skipping one game skip this one.
Skip a Simp pick?
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 34 LOS ANGELES KINGS/ANAHEIM DUCKS OVER 1½ +123 FOR 1ST PERIOD
Please explain. Half goes to ex-wife? Mattress is already too lumpy?
The greatest season of my life and I’m still checking team names
Kid is running like god and I don’t understand a lot of his recent picks.
LFG
Just sprinkled
MOBILE - NBA FUTURES - CHAMPIONSHIP - ODDS TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP - MILWAUKEE BUCKS +800
Older
2/20/2019 1:24:51 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - NBA FUTURES - CONFERENCE FUTURES - ODDS TO WIN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE - MILWAUKEE BUCKS +225
You can grab +200 now
Let me try my hand at this. I seemingly have money to burn from tailing SimpSan recently.
Islanders o1.5 -140
Wild o1.5 -150
Both of those seem like pretty good value to me
You got down already? Who are you using?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I have a hard on for CBJ. Simp can read them.
Like the Wild at that price.
Tampa Bay Toronto ... if you can buy now - you will see -250 tomorrow.
Do you have a live wagering app?
Online network with a local hook up. I thought we spoke about this before. But now that I think about it it was Daly who I bounced some bets with a few years back.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou got down already? Who are you using?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Had another local cut me off. And another local was asking questions so I quit betting hockey with him because I don’t want him 86’ing me all together. Guy runs the best card room in town too but is a hothead.
Local books accepting bets off Pinnacle overnight lines. Interesting.
That’s value. Good for you. Stuff runs away fast after 8-9am when most books open the 1P window
No live wagering? That’s too bad cause letting the puck drop and catching a Sale is something punters few do.
They do offer some live betting. I don’t really have time for all of that though. I forgot I made the 4 bets earlier until 10 mins or so ago. I’ve got 3 kids man. Headed to Disney for a week and then to Augusta for 2 weeks shortly after. I wish I had time to actually watch a game..........Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Sizzle used the term “value”. Druff influence.
Tampa -190 implied odds 66%. Tampa 1P 73%
Not gonna get into the other math that improves the expected profit.
Low or plus odds does not necessarily mean value.
It’s almost over anyway
We move on
Christ my overnight is 165...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I put down half already, figuring if I should get greedy in the live streets...but you're right it's gonna be 220+ by morning and that initial live drop won't get it back down to 165...
probably same thing will happen with CHI...
have to get down on SJ unless there is an objection...will wait on CBJ for the live streets if I fire at all...
the money line for PHL is enormous to say the least...
God, they are so stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisChrist my overnight is 165...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I put down half already, figuring if I should get greedy in the live streets...but you're right it's gonna be 220+ by morning and that initial live drop won't get it back down to 165...
probably same thing will happen with CHI...
I have never said this before in my life.
“I wish I was in NJ”
:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI have never said this before in my life.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
“I wish I was in NJ”
I haven't made near enough money to say that...
DK runs a helluva book as far as pricing goes...betstars is basically AIDS and FD doesn't even offer period betting...so in reality it's not totally great...
lol probably 'fuck you money', san...I can live pretty much anywhere reasonable with 'fuck you money'...
BTW Ive been mulling this over for a week or so...I don't get why DK floats these really cheap overnight lines...I mean I get floating something where you may or may not know where the action is gonna go...they literally know that TB and CHI O action is gonna come in heavy...it's not a fucking doubt...they priced both of these games in the mid-160s...im sure as shit they could fire a 190 line out there like your book did and not lose out on much action...seems stupid..
4-1Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog2-1, but loss here due to double bet on Boston.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Wash/Jets o1.5 1p W
Wash moneyline W
Flames/Vegas u1.5 1p L
Flames moneyline W
Ducks/LA o1.5 1p W *going on a hunch here. If you're skipping one game skip this one.
LFG
The Analytics conference they were talking about certain British books paying off early. FD paying off Alabama early too is a classic example.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I haven't made near enough money to say that...
DK runs a helluva book as far as pricing goes...betstars is basically AIDS and FD doesn't even offer period betting...so in reality it's not totally great...
The books’ reps were present and wrote it off to marketing and insisted it was a profitable play.
AC books are giving away the store with huge bonuses and I think they want to build the hockey handle in the same “give it away” fashion.
Be a sport and take it.
LFG™
im never one to turn down money...but with all those "stunts" and paying out early they get pub...mainstream media covers it, espn.com covers it...aint nobody writing articles about their shitty NHL 1P pricing...I mean I guess it's on twitter and simmons is talking about it, which is press...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe Analytics conference they were talking about certain British books paying off early. FD paying off Alabama early too is a classic example.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
The books’ reps were present and wrote it off to marketing and insisted it was a profitable play.
AC books are giving away the store with huge bonuses and I think they want to build the hockey handle in the same “give it away” fashion.
Be a sport and take it.
eh whatever, I want big TV...
sizzler just realized it was NYI/CBJ...watch out for this one...they only have the game total set at 5.5...Ill admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to the rest of the overall game totals, but this one stood out bigtime as it wasn't a game total of 6+...Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Sent this to my supervisor for approval. Simp may be in a school play or something today. He hasn’t responded
He also hates when I post too much in the thread. He is the face of the franchise. I like talking wagering. It’s hard after a good day to stay calm.
I pulled the trigger and will unwind if he hates anything.
Woke up early
Standard Over 1P
Tampa/Toronto -195
Arizona/Chicago -180
San Jose/Minnesota -155
Under 1P
Carolina/Colorado +120
2 Team Parlay +164
Arizona/Chicago over 6.5 -110
Philly ML -260 Simp HATES the Senators
I got Celtics last night -1.5 vs Clippers.
Celts Young star Tatum is out tonight. Coin flip now
Gordon Hayward finally ballin'. Ankle looks good
Verminator, did you play tanking Dallas ML last night? I forgot
Only about 14 more NHL games. Lot will be meaningless now. It could even get dangerous if we use standard strategy at the end. Much sadness.
I was out of town all weekend with minimal internet access so didn’t do any sports betting, which is unfortunate because I would have faded lakers for sure. I will say as far as tanking goes, with the new lottery system it seems it is more important to focus on teams that can go up or down a tier than absolute placement.
The knicks for example are pretty much assured to be in the top 3, so they can actually play to win moving forward without risking anything. Whereas teams like the lakers and mavs can benefit greatly by dropping down a tier, so they are incentivized to lose.
I am busy this morning but will study the situation later today to see how to proceed moving forward.
wheres simpdog at? I need to re-coup my poker losses
Running short on time. So I'm just cosigning a few picks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Take the standard plays Tampa,Hawks,Sharks over 1st period.
Take Flyers ML or puck line. Take Hawks over for game.
But the most important reminder today is don't bet NBA.
I have a weakness for Marlboro cigarettes, long legs and NBA. None of them are good for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I bought out of Celts Clippers
When Moe waddles up to the podium Friday at GA you tell ‘em I spent good juice to fight my vice
TABLET - BASKETBALL - NBA - 531 BOSTON CELTICS -1½ -110 FOR GAME
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 532 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +2 -113 FOR GAME
Sorry simp
Gotta go against your hometown
My second spread pick of the year:
Cleveland +8.5 vs. Toronto
Starting at 4:05 PDT
In fact, I'm deciding to go half-and-half.
Half Cleveland +8.5
Half Cleveland moneyline +350
the weather was never in doubt...
Prilosec & LFG™Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
The refs are swallowing whistles and that’s concerning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
With this shitty Cleveland team consistently maintaining a 5-ish point lead so far, I'm happy with my decision to do a half-and-half.
Didn’t sweat Tampa one bit
Y'all gotta pay attention to what I've been doing with these NBA dogs.
I think I've found my new niche.
Provided Cleveland doesn't shit the bed, I'll be 4-0:
2/27 Chicago +140 at Memphis
3/7 OKC +145 at Portland
3/8 Memphis +180 at Utah
3/9 Cleveland +350 vs Toronto (still pending)
Druff to be fair the viewers aren’t happy with 4-0 since 2/27
In hockey we went 4-1 yesterday and likely 3-1 tonight.
4-0 is not exciting by itself. A monkey flipping coins can go 4-0 eventually.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
4-0 is even less exciting if you're picking big favorites.
For example, if picking four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.
However, four sizable dogs out of four is a different story.
I hit +140, +145, +180, and +350.
That's the equivalent of going 9-0 on -110 spread or over/under picks.
What kind of Chinese math is that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
glad you hit something.
Chinese math is the best math. Remember who always did the best in math class in high school?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWhat kind of Chinese math is that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
glad you hit something.
But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.
Or, put a different way, if there were four -200 plays available every day, a monkey could be trained to auto-fire on them, and he would go 4-0 once every five days on average.
This is why I avoid big favorites. Hard to get an edge on those. It's very tough to tell whether your -200 bet should really be lined at -280.
The real gold is found in sides/totals (-110/-110) and underdog picks. Finding good dogs can be really profitable, as you will clean up if you're right just half the time.
My MLB strategy involves only betting totals and moneylines which are either dogs or -140 or better.
fuck the flyers
No shit that was a tough one.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
2-2 on the day rather than a nice 3-1 day.
I dumped more on the Hawks then anything else but still I'm disappointed. Ottawa is full of young kids and they keep hanging on to 1 goal losses.
The guys think you are trolling. I promised just one post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffChinese math is the best math. Remember who always did the best in math class in high school?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.
Or, put a different way, if there were four -200 plays available every day, a monkey could be trained to auto-fire on them, and he would go 4-0 once every five days on average.
This is why I avoid big favorites. Hard to get an edge on those. It's very tough to tell whether your -200 bet should really be lined at -280.
The real gold is found in sides/totals (-110/-110) and underdog picks. Finding good dogs can be really profitable, as you will clean up if you're right just half the time.
My MLB strategy involves only betting totals and moneylines which are either dogs or -140 or better.
This is true if you are picking randomly as you appear to do with totals.Quote:
But yes, I'm telling the truth. If you bet four -200 favorites, you will go 4-0 about 20% of the time.
From yesterday
The second I pushed enter on -190 I was +EVQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Tampa of course won.
Dear Druff
4-1-0Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
3.3 units
I won’t run like this in baseball but this has been almost routine in NHL. I had the wisdom to see a positive EV spot.
I don’t know shit about hockey. It’s just math.
Sanlmar, the problem is you are just pressing buttons without thinking about what you're doing, and why.
This is what the books want you to do.
Human nature leads you to want to bet on what appears to be the more likely outcome, and of course human nature dictates you enjoy winning and dislike losing.
Joe bets four -200 favorites. He goes 2-2. Joe knows he didn't break even, but it kind of feels like he did. In reality, if Joe bet $200 on each game, he's down $200 despite going 2-2.
Mike bets three underdogs of +240 each. He goes 1-2. If he bet $200 on each, he finishes up $80. Yet Mike still feels annoyed, as if he lost. He knows he won, but he feels frustrated that 2 of his 3 picks lost. In fact, losing 2 out of 3 makes him not want to attempt to pick other dogs in the futre. After all, what if he goes 0-3 tomorrow?
This is what the books count on. They want you to fire on that -190 and feel great when it wins.
If you can fire that -190 and win 2/3 of the time (long term), then great. You're a +EV bettor.
But if that -190 only wins 60% of the time, you'll slowly bleed your money away, and won't know where it went.