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What other income does Russia have? They shipping auto parts or iPhones?Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
wouldn't be surprised if the Saudis could print at $5/bbl...Russia needs the cash so they're not cutting???? seems like a dubious strategy if it doesn't jive with what the Saudis want...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Russia can’t quit
Saudis have a cushion.
We aren’t making hero calls. We are just chiseling intraday but it useful to know where the pain is
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
1999 Lincoln Continental.
Seems fitting that Yahoo Canada would advertise an online gambling site/slots when looking at finance articles.
I'm all cash now but have urges to buy things at a steep discount.
Someone just let me know how much lower we can go, TIA.
Just completed the trade of 40 shares of TVIX. Lost 25% of value, but whatever.
:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
I now fear for twinks around the country now that OSA is liquid...Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
That car will go 300,000 or more. No Tesla ever will.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
1999 Lincoln Continental.
Marquis and Crown Vics bulletproof and simple to fix.
@simp….my advice, watch 'merican CNBC and do the complete opposite of what they do...
REMAIN CALM GUYS, ALLLLLLL IS WELL ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL IS WELL!!!!!
Feb 24 Buffet was on. He and Cramer are buying the dip.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I saw Maria Bartiromo on tv somewhere. I will admit to an odd attraction back in the day. She was silent (mute CNBC) so that added to the appeal.
She’s not looking good for her age.
damnit...I was really hoping they would be on opposite sides of the trade...worries me buffet is buying...I wonder if by buying he means 'cautiously nibbling'...I know cramer doesn't have that gear in his play book...it's balls to the walls in one way or another...Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarFeb 24 Buffet was on. He and Cramer are buying the dip.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Buffet hasn’t beaten an average in years. But he might now. His partner old man Munger is the guy you follow. 96 and full of attitude.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisdamnit...I was really hoping they would be on opposite sides of the trade...worries me buffet is buying...I wonder if by buying he means 'cautiously nibbling'...I know cramer doesn't have that gear in his play book...it's balls to the walls in one way or another...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Munger was making angry noises near the top. Wisdom.
Buffet is PR
If you can figure out the meaning of negative rates the worlds riches will be yours.
People are buying bonds for price and not yield. I see a pull back. But that’s just trading.
Our colossal debt is unique and I can’t wrap my head around how neg rates will be possible with 25 trillion
If you are 30-40 years old you might have never seen a pull back. There are guys who will be dead and never come back to market
-signed
Boomer
Chalk this up to “an if” at this point.
-if-
CCL doesn’t go bankrupt it’s an easy double in a year, year and a half.
dipped my toes in for a very very very small amount to get that sweet divi action...counting my blessings that it was literally a few hundred dollars...
this is what happens when you pay top dollar for something that just became economic unviable (they bought Anadarko which has a shitton of stuff in the Permian)...
oh and @san...feel ya on maria...wanted to bang her like 10 years ago, time definitely has not been kind...
I just can’t ever pull the trigger on oil. I decided it’s not my game GBCP
This is from January 28th
You know I’m a nit. I have no regrets cause I know who I am. But a small Caribbean island would be nice
Kid couldn’t reconcile oil’s action with the stupid market. Lol. Deep sigh. Joey Knish
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
white house statement at 5:30.
gg market.
spy at 270.8
so either someone qe'd spy back to 780 or the market is weirdly in love with being told coronavirus is a nothingburger and that somehow america is magically immune to it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
It's not going broke. Plenty of very cheap money to borrow to weather this storm. Besides, who wants to reposes the boats? I'm nibbling.
An employee at billionaire Steve Cohen's hedge fund Point72 Asset Management has been infected with coronavirus, according to an internal email reviewed by The Wall Street Journal .
The unnamed employee worked in the firm's Hudson Yards location in Manhattan and hadn't been to the office since early last week, according to the email, which was sent to staff on Monday evening.
Point72 said it was in contact with state and local health departments, and that the employee was "currently self-quarantined at home, safe, and receiving ongoing care."
Point72 is one of the first financial firms in New York to report a confirmed case of coronavirus.
In the email, Point72 also said it would be "conducting a deep cleaning" of its 55 Hudson Yards location. In addition, the firm said it was requiring employees who worked on the 14th floor over the past two weeks, to work from home for the next 14 days.
"We have extensive business continuity plans in place to ensure the firm can continue to operate," Tiffany Galvin-Cohen , the firm's spokesperson, said in an email.
cool cool
The employee is affectionately called B-UnitQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Think it was C-UNiTQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe employee is affectionately called B-UnitQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
It's not going broke. Plenty of very cheap money to borrow to weather this storm. Besides, who wants to reposes the boats? I'm nibbling.
All shipping is a highly leveraged industry. There are dry bulk stocks from 15 years ago that were $10 a share that are now otc $.000000002.
I think it’s worth a shot but what I’m really hoping for is the government to step in and shut them down for a month and have it crash to single digits. Might happen
theres something going on where gov is sweating cruise lines for data about passengers that the cruise lines are resisting giving up.
imo thats why that ghoul weasel was like "lol i hate cruises, dont go on them" during the presser tonight.
so i wouldnt count on a cruise industry bailout basically. airlines? bet on it, sfo. cruises are on some sort of shit list right now tho.
One bullet - choose
inovia just got called out for Total Fraud over their 'we invented a coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours' claim which took their stock from like $2 to $12. currently trading at $9.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
One bullet - choose
Easy: Kudlow
I think there's going to be big opportunity to buy cruise line stock when this is at the bottom.
Not yet, though, as a complete shutdown of the US market is looming, and that will send it in the toilet even further.
NCL (Norwegian) fell from $59.65 on 1/14/20 to $19.81 on 3/9/20.
I could see it falling into single digits if a shutdown occurs.
I think I'm going to buy some when the shutdown is over (or if it's clear it's not going to happen) AND the coronavirus hysteria dies down. I believe this is one industry which will recover, though it will take a little time.
Wynn Resorts -- down almost 50% in the same time period -- and similar casino stocks, are another clear buy opportunity once the hysteria is over.
I think this is a rare opportunity presenting itself, because these were healthy businesses pressed down by an external force, which will cease to be a factor once it's brought under control.
Let's say the coronavirus is no longer a big deal by October 2020. Can you picture Vegas still struggling in early 2022? I can't.
The cruise industry may take a bit of time, because this kinda woke people up to a long-known but little-discussed danger of cruising. So even once this passes, people may wonder, "What's next?"
However, memories are short, and people love cruises (especially old people) because you get a lot for your money, and everything is done for you. For many elderly people, it's the only way they can efficiently travel, without being bogged down by long drives, airport hassles, dragging luggage from place to place, etc. I can't see that dying out, unless this thing really kills a lot of cruisers, which it probably won't because cruise ships will stop running before that happens.
just a thinking out loud shitpost...
i dont know if i want to cash out my march 20 airline/cruise puts today or nah.
* we are sitting at fall of 2014 prices basically. ebola was in the news then. so at this point my airline options are really at a holistic neutral in terms of value. hence, expiration value is a race between event driven stock price deflation in the next 10 days (more people infected/dying, flight stand downs/disruption) and virus=nothingburger & time decay.
* they are pretty deep itm but might not be for long if we have another day or two rallying... on top of which, i can jump back into the market to scalp if things go south, but i lose ditm exponential value growth. further more a lot of plague drama is priced into the market at this point.
* i had a fucking great thesis for why we were going to have a major breakout (down, most likely, for obvious reasons) starting on friday/monday. yesterday drank my fucking milkshake.
last week:
all that energy was getting squeezed perfectly. landfall was going to be something like march 14/15.
now we have this:
i can make guesses about where we are heading but at this point, for the near term, im just guessing which way a leaf will blow in the wind. there is no compression any more. we are back to ping ponging around with no real momentum building. we can make confident assessments about where this goes once bodies start dropping but those assessments are one dimensional, and the most essential variable to this equation is the one we lose; time.
before i had a clear indication that _something_ was going to happen when resistance and support collide. this tho?
"five fucking families, and we got this other pygmy thing over in jersey."
* emotionally, holding positions overnight has become really taxing for me. its giving me a sleep disorder, wanting to wake up at 4am to check market movement. imo, better to scalp intraday trends.
likely path forward:
1) cash out puts if spy gets greener, which seems likely.
2) wait for another market surge from the presser tonight where they announce that payroll tax relief and QE are going to finally defeat a plague.
3) rebalance short portfolio with a may 16 expiration date.
Obviously on the same page as I said as much 15 or so posts ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
With Ships you need to worry about debt and CCL is best in class in a lot of ways including this very factor. They have cash on hand and long term friendly debt.
CCL is my target and I’m “mad” it’s up $2.50 this morning. If the US drops the ban hammer and this trades with a 1 handle I’m in for a 2 year stretch for 6 figures:
Thanks for the CCL tip. I was looking at them too. I was wondering which line was most stable regarding debt and cash on hand, so they can weather a shutdown storm without falling into inoperability.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyObviously on the same page as I said as much 15 or so posts ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
With Ships you need to worry about debt and CCL is best in class in a lot of ways including this very factor. They have cash on hand and long term friendly debt.
CCL is my target and I’m “mad” it’s up $2.50 this morning. If the US drops the ban hammer and this trades with a 1 handle I’m in for a 2 year stretch for 6 figures:
I don't want to buy anything until this really looks like the panic is over. It might still have a long way to go down from now.
phew that was close.
Care to assemble a TARP bailout list?
Airline
cruise
Oil drilling
Leisure - rental car industry. Hotels, casinos, legal prostitution
Any other stupid ideas I’m overlooking?
Zero rates.
We are good though. Kudlow said we are fundamentally sound.
I'm in the car rental industry (sorta) and it's actually been good for business. But the niche I'm in isn't reliant on tourists. People are renting my cars instead of taking the train. I saw a story that Lyft had the most bookings in a week ever, which makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If we have a Corona bailout, we should honestly leave the cruise lines out of it. They're headquartered overseas and don't employ Americans. They do everything they can to skirt US laws and fuck over Americans.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisI'm in the car rental industry (sorta) and it's actually been good for business. But the niche I'm in isn't reliant on tourists. People are renting my cars instead of taking the train. I saw a story that Lyft had the most bookings in a week ever, which makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If we have a Corona bailout, we should honestly leave the cruise lines out of it. They're headquartered overseas and don't employ Americans. They do everything they can to skirt US laws and fuck over Americans.
Now that you made me think, I can see that being true. Love it.
Hertz popped 10% @ Trump press conference like he was handing out $100 bills. Suspicious. No clue. So random. Reveals the nibblers are itchy
They should call it the “Eva Braun Suicide Bunker” open to all the HODL’ers til 4amQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA