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ISIS could very well be lying. The group exaggerates casualty counts for its attacks on a regular basis. But to outright lie about a high-profile, external attack like that of Las Vegas would be another matter altogether, and far more unlikely. To that point, the more I pick apart ISIS’ claim for Las Vegas, I’m reminded of its claim of downing flight KGL9268 on October 31, 2015, which killed all 224 people onboard. As news of the crash broke that Saturday, October 31, journalists and investigators from Egypt, Russia, the U.S., and other countries were scrambling for answers, with a mechanical error a forerunning prospect. Then, just hours later, ISIS’ Sinai Province claimed responsibility for the planes downing, calling its operation revenge for its military campaigns in Syria.
The world was doubtful that ISIS had somehow managed to take down a major airliner flying above Egypt’s northern Sinai Peninsula, with high-ranking officials calling it “unlikely.” Responding to these doubts, I stressed that while ISIS’ claim should not be written off, the group would need more evidence to support its bold claim.
ISIS was listening, and responded to the international community’s doubts on November 4 by releasing a brief audio speech entitled, “We are the Ones who Downed It, So Die in Your Rage.” In the audio, an unidentified speaker (believed to be the leader of ISIS’ Sinai Province) insisted that the plane was downed on the one-year anniversary of the establishment of ISIS’ Sinai Province. He promised proof:
For we, by the grace of Allah, were the ones who crashed it, and we shall reveal, Allah permitting, how we brought it down, at a time and way we deem appropriate.
Then, two weeks later, ISIS released the twelfth issue of its now-discontinued magazine, Dabiq, providing its promised proof by showing the IED it used to down the plane and details about its operation.