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Well done nice live read.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Couldn’t resistQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Bucks 18-3 start
Jazz as high as +370 1st half. (No game ML offered)
I grabbed +300 Jazz
Now Jazz 45-34
I covered 1st half @ Bucks +200 earlier.
Small but fun
Simp
Why didn’t you do CBJ (70%) / Oilers (55%)?
Both GBCP & I want to know.
Sorry I was an ass GBCP. Lotta juice hanging out there. I was stressed.
no worries man...bottom line business san...my account has less in it than it did yesterday...unacceptable...I turned a winning day into a losing day being greedy...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
end of the day DAL was a good play, but a loser...it sucks...CBJ, same thing loser...I think it's a good play based on those numbers, but it missed...cost me money...sucks...
Based on the chart it was a play. Few factors that worried meQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Columbus has Winnipeg on Sunday. Oilers are a dumpster fire, so they could have been looking ahead.
6.5 total, but last 10 games for CBJ
7,7,4,3,5,6,7,3,3. What's that average out to? 3-7 last 10 over 6.5 and 4.5/game
Edmonton last 10
6,8,5,3,7 (OT), 5, 7, 4, 4 What's that average out to? 3-7 last 10 over 6.5 and 4.9/game
I mean the teams they played matter, but it helps paint the picture.
I thought the 6.5 line was a bit high. Likely should have took the under based on that, but I was too scared.
Edit: Pretty deceiving that CBJ is rated MUCH higher than Edmonton at this point.
Typed this up during the women's match, now back to watching UFC.
Seeya tomorrow guys. Should be some good games tomorrow to hit. I'm going to skip GA tomorrow, but I promise to go Monday.
LeBron’s in playoff mode vs Suns
Suns 110
Lakers 103
3:00 left 4th
I’m going to be eating those words until mlb starts and you can focus on DodgersQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
LeBron James misses free throw 1 of 2Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI’m going to be eating those words until mlb starts and you can focus on DodgersQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
LeBron James misses free throw 2 of 2
:lol
I think your first period reads, plus ability to puck line teams gives you a pass on lebum…Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI’m going to be eating those words until mlb starts and you can focus on DodgersQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
im starting to believe you caused massive imbalance in the OTT franchise to be able to bet against them for the last 20+ games of the season...illuminati type shit simp…
I shoulda stopped and thought a little more on the CBJ...you mentioned that the EDM bet against OTT was a 'sigh I kinda have to, but not excited about it'...didn't see the score of the game until end of 2...thought I had a decent chance when it was 4-0...that made it feel worse...
What a brutal finish to the Utah/Milwaukee game.
75 points in the 4th quarter, after my under looked highly likely to cover after 3. Ended up losing by 5.5. Terrible.
Giannis unexpectedly logged 32 minutes and put in 43 points.
Hawks over 1.5 first period
Hawks over 6.5 game.
Juice getting bad already hope you got in early.
Florida puck line -1.5 for game. +100
Working on more.
Rockets ML seems like a lock. Celtics are playing like trash and Rockets are 7-3 past 10 games.
forgot to bet before I went to bed last night...gonna have to bet it live...you thinking about -175 or so is a good price for this?Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
hope I get the invite to your mansion san...
The Lakers now have +600 odds (a $100 wager would win $600) to make the postseason at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, by far their worst odds all season. They are a staggering -900 favorite to miss the postseason.
Adding Nashville under 1.5 1pQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Adding jets CBJ over 1.5 1p
Adding time machine to take lakers not making playoffs at -130
Adding raptors -2. No Leonard but that’s ok
Simpdog release form
I, sanlmar, declare that I have freely wagered a combined 4.65 to win 2.00 with Sharks and neither I nor anyone near or dear to me has been threatened with harm or embarrassment
Jose Sharks -225
Chicago Blackhawks/San Jose Sharks over 1½ -240 for 1st Period
Florida Panthers -1½ -108 Puckline
Off the reservation
Vegas Golden Knights -1½ +100 Puckline
Senators kid on VGK now
Colorado Avalanche -130 for Game
I cannot play NBA pachinko Simp or it’s right back to GA for me
Open invite to stay in the Kershaw Wing GBCP
I’ve never done this before. 7
Chicago Blackhawks/San Jose Sharks over 7 +100 for Game
Hope my account doesn’t jump the Shark tonight
Noticed I missed one
Now I’m fully committed to the Simp Wealth Management Program
Nashville Predators/Minnesota Wild under 1½ +105 for 1st Period
Fool me once...
Toronto at Detroit - Under 217.5 (217 ok)
Starting NOW
Don’t want to fag up the thread - but I do honestly think pound for pound there isn’t a better value in sports then attending a PGA tournament
agreed...practice rounds are even better...went to one when the open was at Bethpage...was eons ago, but was fucking great...
Miguel angel jimenez just fucking around, cigar in hand...love that guy...drinks his wine, smokes his cigars, prints on the course...definitely is the most interesting man in the world...
OT fuckery of mg good under in 3....2...1....
You and I have a lot of fun but that is sickeningQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The OT frequency has to be mathematically impossible
At least I felt the pain too.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou and I have a lot of fun but that is sickeningQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The OT frequency has to be mathematically impossible
Raps played like shit first half, then should have won in regulation. Are up 107-102 in OT and then you let Detroit go on a 10-0 run. WTF?
Reffing was awful IMO as well. They were on the Pistons all the way.
Hawks made us sweat that one out.
I feel this is the hockey gods saying, 'yeah here's a little refund from DAL last night'...
+120 with 10 minutes to go in the period...nice little plus money on those two teams...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
my book still had a live line up with 45 seconds to go...+950/-2000...thought to myself, that crazy fucker san mighta just put some lunch money on the over there...
I bet down to 1.0 +125
Gonna frame that picture with your scoreboard & time, GBCP
Right up there with Bobby Orr diving after goal
The real problem is the first period picks were 3-0. stick to the plan
0-2 smaller bets on Raptors + Florida puck line.
Need the Hawks over 6.5 to make it a really nice day and end a great week.
No 1st periods tomorrow for me.
Buffalo at home ML is my only NHL play and San told me if I bet NBA tomorrow even $1 I really will have to go to GA on Tuesday.
Clippers Lakers with no wager.
Night off
Shout out to Onsestep for betting Kyrie Celts fail. Lakers east
great day boys...looking forward to the full slate on Tuesday...
thanks again simp...
Simp was feeling bad about Druff’s wagering troubles. He thought I might take another crack at some wagering theory but this time with a little less vitriol.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I told Simp starting a GoFundMe page for Druff would be more productive. Druff just ain’t that fluid mentally.
Druff’s post above indicates Druff is aware of some elementary wagering theory. This is good. Let’s escalate the thought and theory.
I took some time and thought I’d use the NBA totals as a relatable analogue.
In 2014-15 51% of NBA teams would reach a 100 points. This year it’s like 89%.
Scoring is up for many reasons.
NBA teams were called for 19.9 fouls per game last season; this season, it's up to 23.1.
The league's officials are emphasizing what the NBA calls "freedom of movement" this season, an effort to clean up some of the extra contact that happens away from the ball and impedes offensive players from cutting and getting open. There are tighter whistles.
The NHL is doing similar things with officiating. Imagine instead of a free throw we removed a player from the opposing team. What might the effect be on scoring?
Tempo is being pushed and more 3’s are being taken. This applicable equally to both the Blackhawks as the Warriors.
Now imagine that the books still offered a NBA 100 point team total and the only adjustment they made was with the juice?
What if the NHL still offered a line each of the 3 periods that was 1.5 but the average total score was 6? All they did was adjust the juice.
Addendum: there are other details with respect to how overnight lines are floated and set by non US facing global books and how NHL is vastly less efficient at 8am vs NBA.
This is too advanced for this discussion. Oh, snap. I did it again.
great post san...you sir are 100% correct...will be interesting to see what happens next year with this...but hell they aren't gonna adjust the 1.5, might as well pound 'em while we can...
that's why I brought up the point of arb-ing a few pages back...the overnight and day ahead lines I can get on certain heavy over teams are a pittance compared to what they settle at...im gonna look at what i get at open and see if i want to do it tomorrow...don't know if there's gonna be enough juice behind the teams i want to do it on (PIT/TB, maybe DAL but the under juice doesn't seem to pop as much)...ideally you get these overs in the -150 range and hope they pop to -220 by puck drop...you aren't gonna make a shitton doing it, maybe $100 or so if you float $1000 on the OVER, but hey a free bottle of bourbon and a few cigars ain't bad for letting the markets do what they're gonna do...
if i remember, ill post my early lines when they are set sometime this evening and see what we are around puck drop...
Still just on Buffalo.
If you're feeling REALLY frisky and have money to waste, take Tor/CGY under 1.5 first period for +155 or better.
nothing like simp approved degening action...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Lakers/clippers O234.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the total was 250.
Thought we had a night offQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisnothing like simp approved degening action...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 18 BUFFALO SABRES -125 FOR GAME
Maybe it's time to do overs, since I'm such a tremendous OT magnet.
Even Sanlmar admits he's astounded by this.
Here's a pick where I WON'T be unhappy to see OT:
New Orleans at Utah - OVER 231
Starts 6:05pm PT
BTW, in case you're worried about Davis and his illness, he's going to play tonight.
Okafor is out though.
Never mind, I retract the pick. Anthony Davis ISN'T playing. The report I read was incorrect.
I deleted the pick which I posted a few minutes ago.
Forget it. Haven't bet it yet.
Never never mind.
Anthony Davis IS playing, and the pick is back on.
Screwed up info went over the wire, and was reported that he was sitting.
However, here's the clarification from rotoworld.
Quote:
Updating a previous report, Anthony Davis (illness) will play on Monday against the Jazz.
An earlier report from a Utah beat reporter stated that Davis would be taking the night off, but Pelicans' head coach Alvin Gentry just confirmed that AD will indeed be out there. He'll still have his minutes monitored, so Cheick Diallo could have a solid evening with Jahlil Okafor (ankle) unavailable. Davis owners can go ahead and get him active, and with no back-to-back sets this week, there's a chance AD suits up for all four games.