for that price, great bet...as you like to say we move on...hockey on deck...lets do this...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
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for that price, great bet...as you like to say we move on...hockey on deck...lets do this...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
LeBron in playoff mode folks
Sorry about Ducks Canucks
There will be some changes going forward. Stay tuned.
liked it too...lost $0...free bets...gotta love legal wagering...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
chin up, get 'em tomorrow...
Hopped on
igloos over
baby shark doo doo doo over
reach for the stars under
Looking through for other ideas.
Like Capitals -1.5. Ottawa just traded away their best players and they have no one left to score.
Apparently playoff mode is to sit out the playoffs and rest up for whomever they sign in the offseason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I didn't say I was betting them, I'm just not betting against them.
You really need to start your own thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogApparently playoff mode is to sit out the playoffs and rest up for whomever they sign in the offseason.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I didn't say I was betting them, I'm just not betting against them.
LeBron ATS is a dumpster fire past few years. If you can isolate certain bad runs you are murdering. It’s a basic public money story.
You put LeBron in brain dead LA - the public money capital of the USA and you might get shut down at your favorite book.
LeBron IS the LA problem. HE is exactly why you are fading Lakers. You see him last night post game? What a piece of shit. If I was his team mate there would be a flaming bag of poo in his locker. The LA organization can’t or won’t do damage control. The AD story is dreadful from Magic Johnson’s end.
I get you have enough money. I write down your picks but oddly I don’t my own. You are 40-14 or 40-17? The NBA is responsible for a disproportionate number of your losses homey. Me too.
The NY Post ran a NHL 1P story. The sports page is god and will be read by millions. GBCP’s guy Twitter Tuley. Fucking guy.
For my money this was the greatest sports wagering streak of our lifetime. 60 games that hit 90%. I insulted Druff. I ranted and raved weeks ago. I did my part here. I just stumbled into NHL after Simp posted that Leafs “come from behind live” bets were a thing.
Just to be clear, I have been following Simp (and administering the requisite rim jobs) forever. Last year baseball I was just blind betting his nightly slate quite often. Literally zero thought. Kid kills it. Another great streak. I only write this cause Druff wrote some nonesense about matching his record against anyone’s sides. Pleaaase.
I don’t mean to start a war but that’s insulting. Gotta give props & thanks where it’s due.
It’s going to be hard to get my head in a normal place now. Prolly my last wagering post for a while. I’ll still be doing the work and responding to people.
Simp should be charging you guys
Simp has been GOD in here for sure.
Wish I had more to contribute in here but I’d be lying if I said I had a profitable angle at the min.
Let's get rid of the God talk and just more gambling ideas/talk in here.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Translated plays, hope you got in early before the juice surged.
Penguins over 1.5 first period
Sharks over 1.5 first period
Stars under 1.5 first period
Capitals -1.5 -130 here. Really like this Ottawa traded their 2 best players. No idea where the scoring will come from now. Add Washington to your parlays at -345 ML if you don't like the puck line.
Or take under 2.5 goals for -140 for Ottawa too. I mean don't get too excited but I just don't see Ottawa scoring more than 2 goals. Maybe add no overtime for -600 to your parlays too
Also don't mind
St Louis/Nashville under 1.5 . St Louis goalie Bennington is on fire. Who cares which goalie Nashville puts in, they both are great.
Arizona/Florida under 1.5
I'm hoping the first period trends continue at least another 2 weeks here. Everyone at GA here is almost out of debt now and they promise to quit gambling once they don't owe their bookies.
I think we should have a First period vs NBA unders bet-off. I'll throw out the line of -300 that NHL first periods win over the next 4 weeks.
To be clear Washington is puck line -1.5
Puck off
Orlando at New York - OVER 215
Starting 4:35pm PST
This play is super public, but I actually think I agree with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I will choose this one to be my first 2018-19 NHL bet.
GL to everyone
Ugh. How does Ottawa score 2 first period goals? Glad our bet wasn't the under!
Still 2 periods to go, but 2-2 isn't what I wanted to see.
NBA pick is right on pace for the line (54 in first quarter), but I don't like how it's a blowout already (34-20), as that tends to reduce scoring.
6-2 Druff
:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
wasn't paying attention, looked at the score and saw that...
:lol2
Okay, never mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Can't question the simp NHL process.
Good talk.
please run for president...I will vote for you and will campaign for a Chicago style turnout...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Absolutely amazing Simp. So pure. Simp undefeated night 6-0
I’ve been pressing the bets and hockey is just so stressful.
I’m exhausted.
Glad to see Druff got a taste.
Thanks to simp for bailing me out.
149 points with 6:27 in the third quarter, and I couldn't get 66 damn more points in the final 18:27 (in a close game), and lost my over by 4.
Awful.
on the weather and the fighting jussies that I got down on last night...surprisingly the lines haven't moved...strange...
simp is so fucking good that he spotted the books his entire cushion on the OTT goals 10 minutes into the game and still beat 'em...that's the one that still gets me...
Hope everyone set their alarm early. Prices have moved a lot.
Hawks and Tampa are the auto plays but ideally you got them at sub -200
May have a couple more this afternoon.
really amazing how much prices move...when I made my post at 9AM ET the prices were still at where I got them last night...now the lightning is 35 higher...interestingly enough CHI is only 9 higher...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Ducks are an under team.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisreally amazing how much prices move...when I made my post at 9AM ET the prices were still at where I got them last night...now the lightning is 35 higher...interestingly enough CHI is only 9 higher...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Hawks burned everyone against Colorado too.
yeah that's the only reason the price is semi reasonable on them...TB seems to be undeterred by any of that shit...always worries me paying a big price when an under team is involved...maybe shoulda waited to live bet 'em, get like 130/140 and let the chips fall...oh well...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogDucks are an under team.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Hawks burned everyone against Colorado too.
I most likely wont be firing on this, but if you want a line that smells like absolute shit, @NOVA (-5) v. MARQ...
as I've mentioned I watch damn near every NOVA game...team has looked like dogshit recently...blew an early 16 point lead against STJ, which shouldn't happen to this team...got trucked by GTWON and then again by X...I would say NOVA has hit a wall, but it's more like the wall has been coming at them at 200 MPH and hit them...
now the most consistent/probably best team in the BE comes to NOVA and they are getting 5?!?!? that doesn't compute...you need some Degen action at 9PM ET and want to fire small i'd take NOVA (-5) because it absolutely makes zero sense for NOVA to be favored, let alone by that much...
Hawks o1.5 1p
Tampa o1.5 1p
Devils o1.5 1p
Hope you got them early the juice is pretty hefty now.
Smaller
Oilers/Leafs u1.5 1p
Avs/Canucks u1.5 1p
Last minute:
Houston at Charlotte - Under 227
Fired these.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Got +130 on Leafs under, +100 on Canucks under
Here's my first sides NBA wager this season. Well, it's actually a moneyline.
Chicago +140 at Memphis
simp, since I've only been closely watching your NHL stuff recently, how have the 1st period overs done when the large favorite lines are factored in?
I am no NHL expert by any means, but from a strict sportsbetting theory standpoint, it is tough to make money betting on heavy favorites over the long term. This is especially true because these tend to be very "public", as the average sportsbettor likes both favorites and overs (and these tend to be both).
From a theoretical standpoint, strategically selected 1st period unders might be the real gem here (which is why I fired on those today and skipped the overs).
I'm not saying all public plays are bad (look at fading Ottawa last night, which was a golden pick, despite my initial grumbling about the 1st period), but I would be interested to know how these over 1st periods are doing money-wise.
Leafs under looked great crossing the 10 minute mark 0-0.
Now Oilers scored, and I have to sweat out the final 8 minutes.
Damnit.
Don’t have the time to run throw the record and the returns again.
Suffice it to say that the game has changed in several fundamental ways. The market is just now catching up - a little bit.
If the average score is 6 and there are 3 periods but I offer 1.5 like 2009 what do you think is gonna happen?
The way lines are set overnight leans toward the European side and the NHL sharps really aren’t participating.
There are opportunities with books that are completely out to lunch early that I don’t have access to.
This isn’t regression to mean stuff or anything you are experienced with aside from NBA kind of. Still don’t think you have caught up there either
kid is right...price is everything with these...I got TB at 190 before I went to bed...didn't feel super about it, but last I checked it was 225/230...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
with a team hitting almost 80% against a team that leans over (NYR) 190 is a pretty damn good price even though it seems like you are paying out the ass...
I could buy Simp a lap dance but instead I’m treating myself to this Lakers fade.
If Lakers lose I can cash my futures tomorrow
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 527 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS +195 FOR GAME
Lakers are dreadful ATS and taking points prolly woulda been right but this is about fun.
Anthony Davis claims he is sitting 4th qtr. we will see.
Love to continue talking wagering but I’m prolly in the wrong place.
Markets adjusting to changes in sport - and those rare opportunities
MLB tossing ideas out there like raising the mound or going from 60’6” to 61 or 62. Might there be an opportunity? What if the first 70 games revealed a 62-8 trend and no one yet adjusted?
Or you could just fade it. I shot Simp a story about Druff’s brother who is down 300k so far fading the 1P’s
Kentucky dropped to +800, from +1400, to win the NCAA championship.....
So far I have small bets on Kentucky, Nevada and LSUQuote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalySo far I have small bets on Kentucky, Nevada and LSUQuote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
I think Zion Williams has his eye on the prize, the NBA, without Zion playing like a beast, duke fails to win.
Kentucky looks more and more like the winning ticket...
Also, I like Nevada because their road to the final four is probably going to be easier than the rest of the top 10 teams, so :whynot
Nevada at +2200 atm..
Was correct about Chicago. Hit that one on the ML.
The Charlotte under was good for 3 quarters, but the terrible first quarter (74 points) sunk it. It lost by 4.
Lost both of simp's unders. Ouch.
Ouch 1-4 today.
6-0 yesterday though so 7-4 over both days.
This isn’t a guaranteed system that wins 90% each day.
Let’s hope tomorrow gets back on track. But at the same time if you are cherry picking a few games don’t expect to win. It’s still hitting at 75% or higher.
still in the green, that's all that matters...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
the great san quote of sports betting prevails here...
we move on...
I’m watching Blackhawks DucksQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisstill in the green, that's all that matters...Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
the great san quote of sports betting prevails here...
we move on...
About 8 mins left Ducks 3 Hawks 2
I got my finger hovering over Hawks ML +475 —> +500 —> +525
The moral of the story is the intensity and Blackhawks Kane. 8 minutes is an eternity. It’s balls out. The best team runs pretty true in hockey.
It was the right bet and I was considering it.
Hawks end up winning and I never pushed the button. That’s fine.
Simultaneously, it’s Lakers Pelicans .... score is 5 or less difference 4th qtr. Anthony Davis sitting on the sideline from late 3rd on.
Pelicans would win if AD would just play the final 3 minutes. NOPE. It’s not about winning. There are more important things. It’s the NBA. It’s wrestling.
Its
:gay
Always feel like an idiot when I bet it. I know better. Lakers will choke on a dick in the long run.
God, grant me the strength to stop betting the NBA