*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

thanks man...it's crazy...i'm on DK (the above are DK lines) and stars...haven't even touched FD because I did a quick search and I didn't see period bets offered...choice overload on props...daly would bust a nut...

straight from bank to book...no chance of getting AIDS by having to step foot in an evil empire property...jersey of all places doing things right...life is good...

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Veteran bookmaker Johnny Avello leaves Wynn Las Vegas for DraftKings
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports...or-draftkings/

If you’ve ever been to the Encore Sportsbook Vegas you appreciate this guy ran a beautiful book.

He will clean up the Draft Kings mess.

It was interesting to me if you follow the tree (like the Bill Parcells coaching tree) it traces its way back to Pennsylvania/Pittsburgh.

Guys were either from Pitts or mentored by a PA guy. The key guys are all leaving Vegas and going back home.

Some are staying like the guy doing the new Circa book in Vegas. Can’t wait to see that.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

thanks man...it's crazy...i'm on DK (the above are DK lines) and stars...haven't even touched FD because I did a quick search and I didn't see period bets offered...choice overload on props...daly would bust a nut...

straight from bank to book...no chance of getting AIDS by having to step foot in an evil empire property...jersey of all places doing things right...life is good...

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Veteran bookmaker Johnny Avello leaves Wynn Las Vegas for DraftKings
https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports...or-draftkings/

If you’ve ever been to the Encore Sportsbook Vegas you appreciate this guy ran a beautiful book.

He will clean up the Draft Kings mess.

It was interesting to me if you follow the tree (like the Bill Parcells coaching tree) it traces its way back to Pennsylvania/Pittsburgh.

Guys were either from Pitts or mentored by a PA guy. The key guys are all leaving Vegas and going back home.

Some are staying like the guy doing the new Circa book in Vegas. Can’t wait to see that.

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ultimate working class city/state...probably guys that ran numbers as kids and young adults...grinding shit out...not ivy league guys, but sure are just as sharp as them...would make a killing on wall street if they had the degree to back it up...

Tampa o
Dallas u
SJ/Pitts o

Have a few other new idea bets but these were the auto ones

10 minutes for the SJ/PIT game...man that was a sweat...

Under Thursday!

Cold players coming back from a long break.

FYI the two games already going are headed under.

Boston at Milwaukee - Under 227
Houston at Lakers - Under 233

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

10 minutes for the SJ/PIT game...man that was a sweat...

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I lolol thinking about your wife and the hockey.

Mostly your wife.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

10 minutes for the SJ/PIT game...man that was a sweat...

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I lolol thinking about your wife and the hockey.

Mostly your wife.

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:lol2

takes a special kinda person to deal with somebody that needs to be put in GA permanently...

GA meeting is tomorrow 7am. Breakfast meeting have to get on the Hawks before it hits -300

See you there guys.

posted this at 610:

CBJ/OTT -157
COL/CHI -200

both have already moved 25 bucks in 2 hours...be lucky to get that 300 by tomorrow morning...

So, do sharp bettors always bet over/under? Is there ever value in the moneyline?

Seems like over/under would be the easiest line for a sportsbook to set.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

GA meeting is tomorrow 7am. Breakfast meeting have to get on the Hawks before it hits -300

See you there guys.

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GA meeting code for warehouse?

man 32 shots in that TB/BUF game...shoulda been another 3 for 3...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

man 32 shots in that TB/BUF game...shoulda been another 3 for 3...

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Simp & I have been riding the red hot Blues. They are 10-0 last ten I think. It’s been an autobet

This is a smaller bet now. Live is a good price.

Just a gamble or book your win today

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

man 32 shots in that TB/BUF game...shoulda been another 3 for 3...

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Simp & I have been riding the red hot Blues. They are 10-0 last ten I think. It’s been an autobet

This is a smaller bet now. Live is a good price.

Just a gamble or book your win today

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11 in a row for Blues

10-0 was Islanders on second game of b2b. They are losing to Edmonton now 2-1. Maybe sprinkle a bit and hope for best.

Sticking to the plan is the best plan, but now that we're all rich we have to throw some back.

yeah I hit STL last night...they got some work to do now...

I’ll admit I’m late to the party. I’ve only floated in and out of here recently. But I’m 8-0 on posted NHL picks by SimpSan. So I ask, because I’m lazy, what’s the angle. Are we just blind hammering overs, hammering trends, fading bad teams on the road? What is it? I’m sure I can scroll back and figure it out but if SanDog wouldn’t mind summarizing I’d be forever grateful.

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

I’ll admit I’m late to the party. I’ve only floated in and out of here recently. But I’m 8-0 on posted NHL picks by SimpSan. So I ask, because I’m lazy, what’s the angle. Are we just blind hammering overs, hammering trends, fading bad teams on the road? What is it? I’m sure I can scroll back and figure it out but if SanDog wouldn’t mind summarizing I’d be forever grateful.

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search dave tuley on twitter and everything will become crystal clear...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

I’ll admit I’m late to the party. I’ve only floated in and out of here recently. But I’m 8-0 on posted NHL picks by SimpSan. So I ask, because I’m lazy, what’s the angle. Are we just blind hammering overs, hammering trends, fading bad teams on the road? What is it? I’m sure I can scroll back and figure it out but if SanDog wouldn’t mind summarizing I’d be forever grateful.

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search dave tuley on twitter and everything will become crystal clear...

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I think I’m catching on quickly

At what point is the juice prohibitive? My book has an early Chi vs Col -240. Seems like a good spot but anything over -200 is bad I assume?

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

search dave tuley on twitter and everything will become crystal clear...

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I think I’m catching on quickly

At what point is the juice prohibitive? My book has an early Chi vs Col -240. Seems like a good spot but anything over -200 is bad I assume?

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yeah his twitter pics are quite illuminating...

I mean you look at those numbers and 200 is a bargain in some spots...think the CHI/COL is one of those spots if memory serves...I fired at 225 and feel fine about it...juice fucking blows shit, but when these teams are covering 70+% ill take it and know if I keep making that bet at that price im gonna come out on top...

Won both unders easily tonight.

I'll confess that it's been so long without NBA that I forgot I made them. I watched a bit of Boston, turned it off after the 1st half, and completely forgot I had picks until right now.

Nice to see they won.

Every under covered today except Sac/GS.

Was considering firing all unders across the board, but instead just went with the two I liked best.

This puts me over .500 again, at 38-37-1.

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

I think I’m catching on quickly

At what point is the juice prohibitive? My book has an early Chi vs Col -240. Seems like a good spot but anything over -200 is bad I assume?

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yeah his twitter pics are quite illuminating...

I mean you look at those numbers and 200 is a bargain in some spots...think the CHI/COL is one of those spots if memory serves...I fired at 225 and feel fine about it...juice fucking blows shit, but when these teams are covering 70+% ill take it and know if I keep making that bet at that price im gonna come out on top...

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I swear yesterday marked a turning point

Newspapers & Twitter. Prolly some viral Facebook deal too. -270 on Blackhawks/Avalanche. I’d never touch that

I blame social media

Some people spotted Blackhawks last year.

We had a good couple months with the 1P’s.

Lots of other good hockey trends.

Lol, Robert Kraft. Super Bowl odds haven’t changed

I repeat this from yesterday. Maybe someone like Daly can explain.

Why have otherwise good global shops gone to 50 cent lines here? To me, this is a sign of the apocalypse.

This sounds crazy but sometimes that’s my brand. I will hazard that 1P’s have transcended gambling and entered public mania. Especially with broader legal wagering - the public doesn’t care and the shops are abusing people.

What angers me somewhat is that I am not offered a fair shot at taking the other side. Even Pinnacle & 5Dimes. Especially, 5Dimes - very early on they started stepping on this. I noticed. I remained quiet.

First they took the Jews and then the 1P’s and I remained quiet.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I repeat this from yesterday. Maybe someone like Daly can explain.

Why have otherwise good global shops gone to 50 cent lines here? To me, this is a sign of the apocalypse.

This sounds crazy but sometimes that’s my brand. I will hazard that 1P’s have transcended gambling and entered public mania. Especially with broader legal wagering - the public doesn’t care and the shops are abusing people.

What angers me somewhat is that I am not offered a fair shot at taking the other side. Even Pinnacle & 5Dimes. Especially, 5Dimes - very early on they started stepping on this. I noticed. I remained quiet.

First they took the Jews and then the 1P’s and I remained quiet.

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I assume this is a hockey specific complaint? I don’t even understand what you are saying.

Also, what is the world coming to that a man can’t even go to an Asian rub and tug without it being recorded and ending up all over sportscenter.

I guess this is where we are supposed to feign fake outrage?

A morning pick for a game at 4:30pm PST.

Detroit at Atlanta - Under 222

Right now 5Dimes

Col/Chicago 1P

-275
+235

That’s not a 10 or 20 cent line. That’s 40. Sometimes 50 cent.

5Dimes hates sharps and may not pay you but they were famous for tight lines. Except this. This was a sign before many others.

The books were getting smashed and 5Dimes is militant about not TAKING a beating. They GIVE beatings. They snuff that shit out right quick.

It was a sign of how good 1P was. If 5Dimes doesn’t like it - it’s a good thing.

Can you imagine how many poor bastards asked for 5 figure cashouts and got denied recently?

I use 5D as an example because the difference in lines is profound. They are all terrible now.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Right now 5Dimes

Col/Chicago 1P

-275
+235

That’s not a 10 or 20 cent line. That’s 40. Sometimes 50 cent.

5Dimes hates sharps and may not pay you but they were famous for tight lines. Except this. This was a sign before many others.

The books were getting smashed and 5Dimes is militant about not TAKING a beating. They GIVE beatings. They snuff that shit out right quick.

It was a sign of how good 1P was. If 5Dimes doesn’t like it - it’s a good thing.

Can you imagine how many poor bastards asked for 5 figure cashouts and got denied recently?

I use 5D as an example because the difference in lines is profound. They are all terrible now.

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You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

Verm, all I am saying is 1Ps are now something non gamblers know about. It’s really public and the books are treating them badly

This just happened in the past couple of days.

Simp and I never paid anything close to 200 before this week

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

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Explain the approach/thinking from the book’s perspective

Parenthetically -I swear 5D was bad under 200 too

Yeah, your prolly right. Those are prolly all very public situations where opportunity to take an extra helping is there. It’s prolly that simple.

Ok. Got it.

I assume this is O/U 1.5 goals? My book offers the same price. I have noticed that props and derivatives are pretty much unplayable now across the board due to high juice. But still get -105 on football and basketball so can’t complain too much.

It just is what it is.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You never see 10 cent lines for numbers over 200.

The standard is 20-30 cents.

So it would be something like -220/+200 and -275/+245

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Explain the approach/thinking from the book’s perspective

Parenthetically -I swear 5D was bad under 200 too

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The book is paying out a lot more than even money on the underdog win, so they need to set a bigger spread to be as profitable as the -110/-110 or -105/-105 situation in an even or point-spread matchup.

Let's look at an extreme example.

Let's say my son Benjamin is playing 1-on-1 against Lebron James, and you could bet on it.

Benjamin only has a chance to win if Lebron drops dead somehow on the court.

Therefore, the line is set at +1000000 for Benjamin to win.

If they only make it a "dime line", then Lebron would be -1000010.

So that would give them only a tiny house edge.

Therefore, the line woud be set at something like +1000000/-1100000

Anyway, that's the basic concept.

A good book should seek to balance the action.

They are always getting the best of it at 11:10

There is no reason to gouge me.

They are not going to get balanced action from me at those odds Ben v LeBron.

But that is a bad offering. Just like 1P / 1.5 in 2019. Unless Kane drops dead of a heart attack, I win.

Unless you offer a decent and tight other side I ain’t giving you action on the under.

In LeBron’s case and the 1P case the proposition was wrong. (Should have been 2 or 2.5) People took the other side until the data become too strong.

Yeah, I see it’s a bigger number. 10 on 100 is different than 10 on 200. But 40 or 50 cents is wrong.

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

Going to lose an Atlanta totals bet yet again.

That team has tortured me this season.

Sadly, nobody is scoring in the 4th, but it's a moot point already.

The Jazz are gonna beat the Thunder in OKC.

They're already ahead. Bet it live if you still get a dog line.

Meant to do this earlier but forgot.

I got a crappy line because I was too eager to bet it before it went to favorite status.

Only got +110.

Right now it's 35-34 Thunder and +155 for Jazz. Good value there.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

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damn tv got smaller...we move on...

see one over and a couple of unders tomorrow...

Today was no action.

Simp was quiet. Simp knows.

Baseball is coming. Exhibition baseball. No fear

Tomorrow we can count our lucky Stars.

And hope the Sharks don’t bite us.

Will be a big day for me. Could be the end of 1P for me.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

If you bought Blackhawks from Pinnacle

1P 1.5
-317
+230

You lost. CBJ/Ottawa was no good either.

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I woke up to a -290 line so I passed. Going 3/4 to break even isn’t a way to get rich in life. That said very well done with these over the past few weeks.

From what I can tell there will be some -200 opetunties where it’s plus EV to make these plays but you will need to more matchup selective going forward.