Took Duke +1.5 and Baylor -3. Sorry I didn't get these in in-time to go against.
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Took Duke +1.5 and Baylor -3. Sorry I didn't get these in in-time to go against.
Some current playoff teams that appear to be tanking based on trades are the Clippers and Heat. Interestingly, the new flatter lottery ball structure and all the upcoming free agents this summer may have incentivized mediocre teams to decide to tank, where in previous years they would have competed to be lower tier playoff teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
It’s not sexy.
2 Team parlay $100 will net you $33
Tablet - Basketball - NBA - 506 Detroit Pistons -400 for Game
Tablet - Basketball - NBA - 511 Golden State Warriors -1600 for Game
Wizards/Cleveland
Wizards are not trustworthy. They may be tankers
Nets/Chicago
Nets are not trustworthy. Bulls may go rogue
I think a review of the tanking approach might be in order
I grabbed this quickly. Just look at column 1. That is the percentage likelihood of getting the #1 pick Zion Williamson.
More discussion is available. Appreciating the odds helps you appreciate that the Bulls CAN win in spots and still be good.
Okay, people... don't look now... but I am doing an OVER pick today.
Yes, my first OVER of the 2018-19 NBA season.
I'm also doing an under.
First, the under...
Charlotte at Atlanta - Under 228
Now the over:
New Orleans at Memphis - Over 213.5
Yes, Memphis.
No, I haven't lost my mind.
Pretty sick, huh dog? 1P is a lifestyle
Your Raptors live. Smash em.
14-3 Knicks
Two bad picks. This past week has really been a struggle.
I should know better than to go over with Memphis.
:fail
FYPQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffTwo bad picks. This past week has really been a struggle.
I should know better than to go over with Memphis.
Those men wanted to have sex with me.
Simpdog is 4-0 so far
He and I disagree on our last game.
Only one of us will run pure today.
Every imaginable NHL over has hit. My even being in NHL is all Simp
I also need Toronto Raptors for a tank parlay. Ironic
I’ve never trash talked Simp before.
1 minute left
Raptors 99
Suns 96
The unthinkable?
5 min in and CBJ/Vegas 1P over cashes
Simp and I had Stars 1P under. 13-2 under streak. Cha-Ching
Simp sweeps. I have to recount. May have been half dozen a bets.
CBJ/Vegas over 6
I must hate money.
Simp is a recluse now. He never wanted the fame.
Mintlips system 5-4 today. Seems to make a little bit of $$ each day.
Had a buddy run it through a database and it comes up around 57% depending on the year.
Both unders in the new football leauge hit today, one with ease.
Something to keep an eye on.
3-0 posted here yesterday.
NHL 1st 7-1-0 +5.00 units
tampa over first period -150
hawks over first period -155
NBA 1-2-1 -0.25 units
Phoenix + Atlanta playing today
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Very encouraging to see this, I'm going to ride it out till the season ends.
I'm going to try to weed out the losers, but I feel like that will end bad.
Had you picked Nevada at the beginning when the line was out, I saw it a o/u 153 and that would have been a push.
Either way, it's nice to know some kind of data can back up my fluke theory, shout out to your buddy.
Over/Under 125 and below, plus a double digit spread, seem to almost go over, or so I've noticed, so if he ever manages to crunch those numbers I'll owe him a few cigars..
If you guys don't trust me on these NBA picks right now, I understand, because I've sucked lately.
However, here are two picks for you anyway on the late games:
Orlando at Atlanta - Under 223.5
Miami at Golden State - Under 220.5
Orlando's Aaron Gordon is battling a bad back.
Simp,
Everyone and their brother is on the 1P’s. I mean rich people.
Remember the massive depreciation you experienced when you drove your new Maserati off the dealers lot?
Well, that is exactly what happens to the inflated 1P’s when the puck is dropped opening faceoff. The live juice falls impressively even in the first minute or two. On the flip side that is often how long it takes to get 2 goals.
I never really get upset about bets I miss. If I miss a sale I’ll live. There is always another bet.
BTW how is that Maserati in the snow?
You’re kidding me, Simp?
2 Team Parlay +100
Lowly Rangers
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 15 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS -155 FOR GAME
Suns Tank component
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 546 SACRAMENTO KINGS -465 FOR GAME
Took Leafs live -105
Leafs are destroying them. Hot goalie
Let's hope for one.
NHL 8-2 +4.5 units
1-1 yesterday for -.5 units
Sharks/Canucks -155 over first period
NBA still 1-2-1 -0.25 units
Knicks vs Cavs battle of tankers
Bucks at Bulls
simp, I've only half been paying attention.
What is your current NHL record?
Gosh, what if a third party - like one of only 5 people who post here publicized his success?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Perhaps I should have done that. I apologize Druff.
In a penultimate demonstration of your own apparent absorption he posted the answer to your question in the post immediately preceding
That’s fine. We are only posting a subset of the picks and thoughts which are probably actually doing better. We elected to not clutter the wagering thread with picks.
I was looking for discussion and that never happens so I just deal direct recently
Go ahead and post my last email of picks, Simp, or just post the results. I don’t mind
It’s all yours now.
I misread his post and thought 8-4 was just yesterday.
Oops.
Guess sample size is too small.
Yeah, that’s it “sample size is too small”
He posts every fucking day for years. Couple days ago he says he’ll start tracking. He HAS been posting daily results fairly regularly for at least a year. If he hasn’t, I prolly have.
He’s been a winning contributor. TBH that isn’t even the issue. There is evidence of actual thought and dialogue. There is conversation.
You post 2 picks 5 minutes before tip off. That’s it. Like you are bestowing us with some precious gift. I’m not gonna even get into the results. Let’s just say they would serve as a source of humorous self skewering during these slow times.
At least tell us which tout you are using. There is zero evidence of any process.
Conversation
I’m sick of looking at this thread and seeing my avatar with your mug and not much else.
Frustrated? Disappointed? Bored? IDK & really don’t care.
Druff I started posting the record on posting plays just to keep track on PFA. So at the end of the year anyone can look back and see it easily. I'm not doing it for any fame or riches but just trying to add a little value to the thread and maybe some people's bankrolls if this strategy keeps going well.
Sanlmar gets all the credit though for putting the carrot out front of the donkey. I was doing okay on sides/totals, but this has been a great bonus.
I do agree with San many others have caught on to the first periods and we are paying a bit more juice + you have to get on them early.
Although if you hunt around you can find slower moving sites too.
Nothing as far as unders for the NCAA today that I like.
I have been watching North Carolina a bit, and seen them go over the past 3 times, I don't think today will be any different. Virginia allowed Duke 82 points, I see the tar heels getting at least 70, I'm going with North Carolina +1 and the O139.5..emphasis on the Over..
MD Eastern shore hawks vs North Carolina at&t aggies O125.5 aswell.....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
Wow lol, line started at North Carolina +1.5, currently at a pick em, and o/u jumped one point to 140.5.....the sick thing is I was seriously coming up with 71-70 Virginia in my head....
GET HIMQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Sanlmar, my "results" stand up against any sides bettor on this site.
Go ahead and check for yourself.
Even this season, which has been my worst in awhile, has me around exactly .500 (I have to check, but it's either .500 or 1 under at this point). So that's not exactly fodder for humiliation, especially after I put up a winning season last year with lots of picks and did the same with MLB.
Anyway, here is one for tonight:
Milwaukee at Chicago - Under 227.5
I want to expand a bit more since I have a bit more time to post now.
I had seen simpdog post NHL picks and Sanlmar raving about them. I didn't count how many he posted, and I only half paid attention, since I'm not an NHL fan.
I saw something about 8-4, which I assumed was his record that day (even though that's a lot for one day). I asked his overall record.
Then Sanlmar told me that simpdog just posted his record, and I went back and looked and noticed it was indeed his full record, though that didn't make much sense either.
Turned out he just started keeping track, which is fine.
But I don't understand Sanlmar's anger here. I wasn't criticizing simpdog in any way, nor do I claim that my NBA picks are any kind of "gift".
I post them last minute because that's when I bet them.
I'm just not understanding the vitriol here.
Fucking brutal....looks like I'm just going to stick to the "Minty system".....still think nevada takes it all tho.....
Lol, damn should a stuck to my guns, the over 125 covered...
NHL 9-2 +5.5 units
1-0 today
Sharks/Canucks -155 over first period Win
NBA still 1-2-1 -0.25 units
** on hold for now
NHL 9-2 +5.5 units
Hawks -140 over 1p
Tampa -175 over 1p
Dallas -115 under 1p **better line available now
Columbus -145 over 1p
NBA still 1-2-1 -0.25 units
** on hold for now
NBA today:
All times PST
5:05 Boston at Philadelphia - OVER 226.5
5:05 San Antonio at Memphis - UNDER 208
Memphis 3-7 overs last 10Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
San Antonio 9-1 overs last 10 ***talking about HIGH totals like 225-230
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Memphis.
Just riding the Memphis train? Or how did you grab Under 208?
It went down from 208 to 207.5 right after I posted it.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogMemphis 3-7 overs last 10Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
San Antonio 9-1 overs last 10 ***talking about HIGH totals like 225-230
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Memphis.
Just riding the Memphis train? Or how did you grab Under 208?
#stalelines obv
I realize that SA is going at a super fast pace, but Memphis has just been slooooooooow and I believe they're going to bring SA's pace down to their level.
MiCon (better known as Michael Conley is also out.
Last 7 meetings don't matter too much because these stretch back to prior seasons, which were quite different for both teams.
Also considered the Over 240 with Lakers/Atl because those teams are just playing zero defense these days, but lines like 240 are just so hard to bet overs, because the slightest scoring drought happens and you're probably fucked.
70 points first quarter, though. Lolz
3-1 +1.55 units tonightQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
12-3 +7.05 units
I think going forward I will cease to record keep. There's no point in posting it and causing controversy.
Last minute Druff style
Leafs +162 under first period
And this is not your "normal" first period play. It's just some value.
Most sites had Leafs -140 over and +110 over.
Edit: By the time I hit submit it was +155. So +155 is the play still.