ELON TUSK IS GOD

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Originally Posted by OSA

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Originally Posted by Daly

Looked good at first.... didn’t age well. Two biggest individual holdings were MGM and TSLA.

Just shoot me.

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This is what happens when you listen to Tine where the fall of American civilization is ALWAYS juuuuusstt around the corner.

Stonks always go up.

Except SWBI that is. No debt, insane year over year earnings, 8 million new gun owners, avg gun owner has 8 guns( that seems a bit high, but I have 0 so who am I to judge), hires 300 new employees and increases production to ensure streamline, and it was at its 6 month low yesterday.

But every tech company comes out and shoots up faster than my dick at a high school wrestling meet with no sales or previous earnings.

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MGM -- having spent a week at the Bellagio recently i can say you should run, not walk, away from the stock.

Fall of American Civilization -- it is coming, just a slow-roll to get there.

SWBI -- one of the greatest and enduring lessons I have learned the hard way about stocks and investing is that you can be right, and still be wrong. I've been there too many times, so now i just accept it is all a game run by the Jews in tall buildings who belong to a club i will never have access to. Thus, it is all a crap shoot in the near term and that Buffet is right, buy stocks in companies you understand and it will give you the best chance at some meaningful appreciation over the long [long] term and also allow you some means to get out when things don't look right.

Just my .02 cents.

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im sure they will just clone enough dollars to cover these bets and that its actually good for the economy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eodci5lX...name=4096x4096


totally sustainable imo

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Originally Posted by sonatine

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eodci5lX...name=4096x4096


totally sustainable imo

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This speaks to wealth distribution. From that point of view it can run forever or until the 1% and boomers are murdered in their sleep. You ain’t ever stopping QE

https://twitter.com/tradermayne/stat...459600896?s=21

can anyone explain to me who is on the other end of my options spreads?

does my broker package it as a single logical entity for assignment or does it split the buy/write legs and somehow only consider it assigned once both are purchased?

or what?

https://twitter.com/janetyelen/statu...053426183?s=21

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Originally Posted by sonatine

can anyone explain to me who is on the other end of my options spreads?

does my broker package it as a single logical entity for assignment or does it split the buy/write legs and somehow only consider it assigned once both are purchased?

or what?

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maybe monsterj will come back in here and enlighten us on that...

my guess...brokers are selling you premium and then immediately delta hedging their exposure with the underlying...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by sonatine

can anyone explain to me who is on the other end of my options spreads?

does my broker package it as a single logical entity for assignment or does it split the buy/write legs and somehow only consider it assigned once both are purchased?

or what?

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maybe monsterj will come back in here and enlighten us on that...

my guess...brokers are selling you premium and then immediately delta hedging their exposure with the underlying...

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someone on reddit basically said the broker waits for both legs to be purchased and then presents the sale as something of a synthetic single item to me but id love to get a more informed opinion.

clearly there is more to it than that because the exchange will cancel attempts to close at a price that violates the maximum potential profit as defined by the distance between the strikes minus the up front cost to me.

but yeah id love for a real granular informed explanation. there are 4 parties involved at least; me, broker, exchange, whoever is closing my contracts on each legs and there is a ton of mystery around what role exactly we all play here.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

maybe monsterj will come back in here and enlighten us on that...

my guess...brokers are selling you premium and then immediately delta hedging their exposure with the underlying...

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someone on reddit basically said the broker waits for both legs to be purchased and then presents the sale as something of a synthetic single item to me but id love to get a more informed opinion.

clearly there is more to it than that because the exchange will cancel attempts to close at a price that violates the maximum potential profit as defined by the distance between the strikes minus the up front cost to me.

but yeah id love for a real granular informed explanation. there are 4 parties involved at least; me, broker, exchange, whoever is closing my contracts on each legs and there is a ton of mystery around what role exactly we all play here.

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yeah wish i had a better knowledge of the mechanics...but ill guarantee you this...whoever is selling is taking zero risk to do so, unless you get matched with one of the handful of retail traders that sell options...

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

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Originally Posted by sonatine

someone on reddit basically said the broker waits for both legs to be purchased and then presents the sale as something of a synthetic single item to me but id love to get a more informed opinion.

clearly there is more to it than that because the exchange will cancel attempts to close at a price that violates the maximum potential profit as defined by the distance between the strikes minus the up front cost to me.

but yeah id love for a real granular informed explanation. there are 4 parties involved at least; me, broker, exchange, whoever is closing my contracts on each legs and there is a ton of mystery around what role exactly we all play here.

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yeah wish i had a better knowledge of the mechanics...but ill guarantee you this...whoever is selling is taking zero risk to do so, unless you get matched with one of the handful of retail traders that sell options...

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doubtless. but yeah id love to know what exactly the spread looks like to the person selling and who coordinates the choice of legs to create it etc etc.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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we're fucked.

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It’s been a while

I’m thinking there is no possible way you didn’t partake of some TSLA since the listing Sonatine given those that you follow and admire

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

It’s been a while

I’m thinking there is no possible way you didn’t partake of some TSLA since the listing Sonatine given those that you follow and admire

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at best i swing and im pretty agnostic about what positions i take. i tried to long tsla weekly today at like 620 and then the bottom dropped out again. and again.

but yeah i think weve all learned by now not to count out the reversion to mean factor once /wsb goes after the dip.

Robin Hood engaged with Goldman to bring forward a IPO.


It’s like the Devil and Hitler going to hit the pits in Vegas.

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Originally Posted by Daly

Robin Hood engaged with Goldman to bring forward a IPO.


It’s like the Devil and Hitler going to hit the pits in Vegas.

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speaking of GS i hear they are moving to florida.

seems like an odd choice from a culture perspective. like how do you sell living in florida to a fingoon on a 10 acre estate in long island or whatever.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Daly

Robin Hood engaged with Goldman to bring forward a IPO.


It’s like the Devil and Hitler going to hit the pits in Vegas.

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speaking of GS i hear they are moving to florida.

seems like an odd choice from a culture perspective. like how do you sell living in florida to a fingoon on a 10 acre estate in long island or whatever.

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Uh, Florida is littered with old, rich Jews.

Who needs culture when there are no state taxes, Sonatine?

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

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Originally Posted by sonatine

speaking of GS i hear they are moving to florida.

seems like an odd choice from a culture perspective. like how do you sell living in florida to a fingoon on a 10 acre estate in long island or whatever.

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Uh, Florida is littered with old, rich Jews.

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yeah i suppose the missing key here would be they could snag some real swagged out condos. i went house hunting on zillow as one does and if you want privacy, florida is not the jam, so you know..

know a guy who works for goldman...they moved his division to texas...

san's right, theyre getting the fuck outta NYC while the getting is good to get that sweet, sweet no tax life...

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Daly

Robin Hood engaged with Goldman to bring forward a IPO.


It’s like the Devil and Hitler going to hit the pits in Vegas.

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speaking of GS i hear they are moving to florida.

seems like an odd choice from a culture perspective. like how do you sell living in florida to a fingoon on a 10 acre estate in long island or whatever.

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I Love it. The POS bank I work for is sending every job they can overseas with a quickness. I’ll be lucky to have my job inside of 18 months. Goldman here I come.

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

know a guy who works for goldman...they moved his division to texas...

san's right, theyre getting the fuck outta NYC while the getting is good to get that sweet, sweet no tax life...

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Like I said above - we are 12 years post Lehman Brothers. There is no money out there for banks and investment firms to make that isn’t tied to inflation. They are all filled with Ivy league MBA’s And they can’t figure out how to make money and “grow the business” without stealing it from some other bank only to have that bank come back on them with even lower fees. The only handle they have to pull, generally speaking, is to lay off people in high cost locations and replace them with low cost locations.

8 years ago my department had 150+ people making 100k+. We down to 15 tops and 200 people in India. The 15 people do as much work as the indians.

They don’t care. The guys at the top want the 8 figure bonus so no more 175K a year jobs.

You were training these foreigners if memory serves.

In a vaguely similar rant, I’m firmly convinced that much of our newly minted caronavirus remote work force is going to migrate overseas too.

Casinos are investment banks at heart. Vehicles for money laundering. The casino caronavirus crisis brought to my attention the fact that Macau exists more as a laundromat than a gambling Mecca, for instance. Duh.

Money finds its way to Malta or the Caymans where a guy like you finds me some real estate and sets up an equity line of credit. Your boat has a Georgetown address.

Combine your two skills.

Meanwhile, that elderly looking towel boy at your country club may well be me the way things are going.

Good luck.

All those IB kids Krypt went to school with.... they are now consultants pitching how they will walk you through hiring foreign workers for your remote team.

You trained them. Maybe this is a niche.

Bourbon is nice, isn’t it?

oh shit https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo38wkPX...pg&name=medium

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

know a guy who works for goldman...they moved his division to texas...

san's right, theyre getting the fuck outta NYC while the getting is good to get that sweet, sweet no tax life...

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Like I said above - we are 12 years post Lehman Brothers. There is no money out there for banks and investment firms to make that isn’t tied to inflation. They are all filled with Ivy league MBA’s And they can’t figure out how to make money and “grow the business” without stealing it from some other bank only to have that bank come back on them with even lower fees. The only handle they have to pull, generally speaking, is to lay off people in high cost locations and replace them with low cost locations.

8 years ago my department had 150+ people making 100k+. We down to 15 tops and 200 people in India. The 15 people do as much work as the indians.

They don’t care. The guys at the top want the 8 figure bonus so no more 175K a year jobs.

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In the industry I was trained in (biotech) highly skilled, specialized jobs are going for $50-60k/yr. I can make almost the same doing Instacart. The globalists have won. The middle class is dead.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

oh shit https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo38wkPX...pg&name=medium

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Someone just posted this.




If the last decade were your formative years what are you to think?

Even before Covid rate cuts and de facto quantitative easing (aka “repo” - it’s all the same) were still the rage. MMT.

They are no smarter than anyone else. The ghost of Greenspan still haunts me. No one knows shit. It’s a continuing experiment.

I used to daytrade AMZN. Why would I want to hold? I want to puke. These are my thoughts today.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/3...emoved-reality

either they are going to offer rebates/incentives and nio / tsla are going to fucking explode, or i strongly suspect something else might happen.

DONT GET SHUT OUT

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So Las Vegas real estate is breaking records while the casinos are essentially closed. This has been kicking my ass.

Here is an example that helps solve the riddle
Pinterest pays $89.5 million to terminate San Francisco office lease
https://www.sfgate.com/business/arti...e-15525421.php

Holy fuck.

Pinterest sets their employees free via remote.

Where do extremely well paid employees want to live? How about some place tax free? If you’re young Vegas ticks a lot of additional boxes. Las Vegas is the #1 destination for those fleeing that shithole, S.F., and it’s not close.

Rents are down 30% in S.F.

This is just one California example. Man, was I wrong in March about Vegas real estate. There are obviously other unexpected Vegas trends that spin out of this.

Hmmm

Vegas is binary. Single family homes records. Apts & condos are a disaster. ��87% collection. That’ll be worse in December as forebearance and Xmas spending converge. I won’t pay but I’m buying presents. What are they gonna do to me?

20% unemployment is like the county’s worst.

The Palms Tower. Delinquencies are so bad no one will write a mortgage there.

Rates go up and a few Vegas summers under your belt and the bubble will deflate. I still have ideas about the remote trend too.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Vegas is binary. Single family homes records. Apts & condos are a disaster. ��87% collection. That’ll be worse in December as forebearance and Xmas spending converge. I won’t pay but I’m buying presents. What are they gonna do to me?

20% unemployment is like the county’s worst.

The Palms Tower. Delinquencies are so bad no one will write a mortgage there.

Rates go up and a few Vegas summers under your belt and the bubble will deflate. I still have ideas about the remote trend too.

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Interested in your remote trend ideas as it’s a fascinating subplot to watch play out in this Covid era. The poorly mismanaged over-levered REITs are going to get destroyed. Total carnage. The well managed ones are going to be buying up prime commercial real estate for pennies on the dollar.

You may be talking strictly residential which although correlated isn’t the same thing. I’m super fascinated by that market as well. Anecdotally I know several people that have left the city to move to the suburbs during this year as well. Some for more space, home office, don’t need to commute etc. Some to get away from the protests. You’d think these trends would have to have an impact on city housing prices right? Demand is still through the roof. The intown housing supply just isn’t there. Is there just going to be a lag? I really don’t know.

Obviously this is going to vary market to market quite a bit. SF is not Austin or Vegas or Nashville. But overall there should be some trends that have real tangible pricing impacts and are identifiable right?

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

So Las Vegas real estate is breaking records while the casinos are essentially closed. This has been kicking my ass.

Here is an example that helps solve the riddle
Pinterest pays $89.5 million to terminate San Francisco office lease
https://www.sfgate.com/business/arti...e-15525421.php

Holy fuck.

Pinterest sets their employees free via remote.

Where do extremely well paid employees want to live? How about some place tax free? If you’re young Vegas ticks a lot of additional boxes. Las Vegas is the #1 destination for those fleeing that shithole, S.F., and it’s not close.

Rents are down 30% in S.F.

This is just one California example. Man, was I wrong in March about Vegas real estate. There are obviously other unexpected Vegas trends that spin out of this.

Hmmm

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In Montana the locals are being priced out of the housing market. It used to be that maybe a third of homes were sold to out-of-staters. In 2020 that figure has doubled to two-thirds. Homes are going to the highest bidder and being sold site-unseen, inspections being waived. Mostly Californians. The same thing is happening in Idaho. I have a friend there whose 200K home nine years ago is now worth 650K.

so correct me if im wrong but we are going to see like a 60 point jump in spooz the day stim hits followed by an honest to god 20-30%+ drop over the course of winter/spring due to c19, lockdowns, etc etc, yes yes?

like we are actually going to have a bear phase for real?

More importantly, are employers going to offset these savings(no rent, no team outings, no amenities in the office) with a salary increase for their workers?


If these fuckers think I am going to pay for workspace, supplies and a room to work out of while they pay me the same pre-covid, they can just go scratch.

35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in the last 10 months.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in the last 10 months.

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Buffet’s boss Charlie Munger. We want to know what he’s thinking

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...es/ar-BB1bVv6t

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by sonatine

35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in the last 10 months.

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Buffet’s boss Charlie Munger. We want to know what he’s thinking

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...es/ar-BB1bVv6t

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by sonatine

35% of all US dollars in existence have been printed in the last 10 months.

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Buffet’s boss Charlie Munger. We want to know what he’s thinking

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...es/ar-BB1bVv6t

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theres a great munger parable in the jim simons biography and unfortunately for us all, i have forgotten it.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Buffet’s boss Charlie Munger. We want to know what he’s thinking

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...es/ar-BB1bVv6t

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theres a great munger parable in the jim simons biography and unfortunately for us all, i have forgotten it.

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I can’t give ya anything on Munger. I actually don’t know his story. That omission just occurred to me.

Buffet got his start and inspiration printing tip sheets at the horse race track as a pimply yute.

Mother of god, I still haven’t read that biography. It is frequently referred to by you. Made an impression obv.