Easy win tonight.
Back to .500
10-10-1
Time to start winning now.
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Easy win tonight.
Back to .500
10-10-1
Time to start winning now.
Whaddya got Simp?
The following skews to action and trying some shit. No locks that’s fo sure
Two fast teams w/ no defense. Kings also a surprising 3 point team. That’s all pretty public. The Warriors statistically slow 1st qtr team.
That magic 235 total out there. In keeping with script I will look to get a bargain over live in 1st qtr. if it doesn’t appear then “oh, well”
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 582 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS/SACRAMENTO KINGS UNDER 60 +105 FOR 1ST QUARTER
Hawks have no reason to live. This is just a feel and more 1st qtr experiment
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 568 BOSTON CELTICS -4½ +103 FOR 1ST QUARTER
Never lost a NHL bet so far. No ideas lately. Talk to me.
Edit
Bruins @ Penguins 7:05p.
I gotta take this price
MOBILE - HOCKEY - NHL - 5 BOSTON BRUINS +148 FOR GAME
Sanlmar, I think I'm becoming a bad influence on you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Picking unders now?
Actually, I'm considering the GS game for under.
You're correct that they are sometimes slow in the 1st quarter.
However, it's also true that the Warriors will slow down in the 4th if they're blowing out the other team and put in the scrubs.
I hate betting on quarters with GS because they are so streaky with the scoring, so it comes down to a lot of luck if they're cold with the 3s or not. Of course, you can also get lucky if their opponent shoots like crap.
Oddly, John Q. Public is more with the under tonight than the over, which is unusual with GS. It's even weirder because there are no major players out for either side, aside from Cousins, who has been out forever. I mean, yeah they're also missing Iguodala and Livingston, but who cares?
Don't know what to make of this one.
I think it's because the Warriors have put up 105, 116, and 93 in their last 3 games, so John Q. is tired of losing his overs.
May take a shot with it anyway. Still thinking.
Okay, what the hell. I'll do it.
FYI I'm on the fence on this one, but a little bit to the side of liking the bet, so I'm firing.
I don't want to bitch later that I "almost picked it" when it wins.
Golden State at Sacramento - Under 235.5 (236 available at some books)
Lowry out. Leonard in.
Like the over 216 total seems low to me.
San, we screwed up.
You lost in 8 minutes.
I also probably lost in those same 8 minutes.
No more marginal picks for me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am not a quitter
Under 142.5
Not good
Edit
Won
Lot of sharp money in Fresno and North Texas tomorrow, but it might be too late to get in.
2-2 for night
What’s impressive is over all 4 bets I only gave up 10 pts of juice on one bet
Those that heard my recent sermon about 235 totals please tithe when the basket comes around. 235 is a governer on what should be a 250 number lol.
I wanted the under 1st qtr then live bet the over at a discount. I got too cute.
Huge 2nd half for raptors/Portland.
San I should have took your strategy for that game. Getting cute would have paid out nicely.
San my sponsor from GA wants you to quit posting. It’s like a bat signal for me to gamble after you post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff.. please check PM's
I need to find the strength to ignore 9/10 of the bowls. I caught myself developing serious opinions about BC vs Boise. Then I had the necessary reality check.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Roughly 130 D1 FBS schools — 80 schools participating in 40 bowl games. More than 1 in 2 athletes have another game.
Above is a list of players who find playing in these bowl games unimportant to the point of sitting out.
College kids aren’t all stupid. Most realize most of the bowl games are a joke and just revenue (not for the athlete).
Some kids are gonna be up for a free trip but not the game. Some kid might take a left turn while in the Bahamas or some such destination.
ESPN & NCAA are creating an illusion - don’t take it too seriously ... especially not with your money. You lack the ability to beat all the extra bowl variance.
I made a couple picks. I will be happy to chop. I will not shoot off on this nonsense any further
I don’t know what undocumented depravity you’re up to on your own time.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
All I do know is Druff and your sponsor would have done very well this past year if they blind bet your posted picks.
Seriously though, I had fun tailing you. The Maple Leafs tip made me 2:1, if I recall.
Toronto baseball was awful and I would have ignored but I recall blind binking Jays overs last summer on your word.
I shamelessley have very few original ideas.
In 2013 Harolobob squared off against Matthew Holt from Cantor Gaming at the MIT Sloan Analytics conference. Jack Ma from the MIT Blackjack escapade was a moderator.
Bob destroyed Holt. One of the most interesting hours of wagering I can recall.
Matthew Holt is on the right.
The poor guy, Holt, had to defend the cesspool that is Cantor Gaming. I ended up disliking Holt cause he was earnest and dumb. There are worse crimes I suppose.
I thought the guy’s career was over right then and there.
Holt just left Cantor and is now President of U.S. Integrity.
http://usintegrity.com
Of course, Harolobob landed his dream job with the NBA Mavericks.
Holt trying his best to skim that 1%. What a joke. There just needs to be a SportsFraudAlert patent pending
No light regulation just information.
Just had to get this off my chest
With a nod to lol wow
The first bit of business SportsFraudAlert would have addressed was the phantom PI at the end of the Chargers Chiefs game. It was a make up call and enabled millions of dollars to end up in the wrong hands.
Chargers took advantage of the gift and did indeed execute the 2 points to win the game. Good for them.
Nevertheless, this is why watching and betting the NFL constitutes a life leak. The variance is unlike any other sport.
Nova +7.5 today...im not saying to take nova here...but that line fucking smells like total shit...
so an EXTREMELY inconsistent nova team is going into the phog and is only getting 7.5?? I don't get it...I thought this line would easily be in the double digits...
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff.. please check PM's
Settle down there Bevis. Has it occurred to you that the more you stalk him all over this site the longer he is going to take to get back to you?
Darnold over 31.5 attempts
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI need to find the strength to ignore 9/10 of the bowls. I caught myself developing serious opinions about BC vs Boise. Then I had the necessary reality check.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Roughly 130 D1 FBS schools — 80 schools participating in 40 bowl games. More than 1 in 2 athletes have another game.
Above is a list of players who find playing in these bowl games unimportant to the point of sitting out.
College kids aren’t all stupid. Most realize most of the bowl games are a joke and just revenue (not for the athlete).
Some kids are gonna be up for a free trip but not the game. Some kid might take a left turn while in the Bahamas or some such destination.
ESPN & NCAA are creating an illusion - don’t take it too seriously ... especially not with your money. You lack the ability to beat all the extra bowl variance.
I made a couple picks. I will be happy to chop. I will not shoot off on this nonsense any further
I wish I had that strength. Most years I bet on every, or almost every bowl game, and invariably lose. I understand that if you just took underdog ML's across the board you would end up break-even or a little ahead in the long run (due mainly to the variance you mentioned), but I am just not that disciplined.
My book doesn't have that one. It has 18.5 completions (line shaded to the under) and 207.5 passing yards. You have a lean on either of those props?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Maybe a small play on the comps over..... I think jets will have to throw a lot todayQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaardMy book doesn't have that one. It has 18.5 completions (line shaded to the under) and 207.5 passing yards. You have a lean on either of those props?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Morty pestered Druff about $40 winQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
Settle down there Bevis. Has it occurred to you that the more you stalk him all over this site the longer he is going to take to get back to you?
He didn’t say please
Hilarity and banhammer ensued
Classic entertainment
ASU +6. I realize game already started and no chance to fade me.
Deal with it.
Fix is in on the UL Laf game.
Phantom pass interference call on under thrown ball to give Tulane the first down into FG position and likely cover.
I have NYJ over 16.5 points big and the kicker has now missed two extra points. NYJ 15- Texans 16. Standard.
Everyone talking about analytics, young coaches and the trend to go for it on 4th downQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
It’s b/c the kicking game is so horrible in NFL. Witness alledged 4 time pro bowler Patriot Gostkowski last week. Wretched. Kicking is so simple it should be a gimme to pick up the pace of the game.
Not for some, I guess
12/15/2018 6:37:21 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW YORK JETS [DRIVE PROPS] SIDE TEXANS -3.5 -110
Lost the cover in both the UL Laf and Az St games late in the 4th quarter.
Standard.
App St -6.5 -110. Obviously you should bet the farm on Mid Ten St. the way things are going.
Also Browns +1.
Can’t make this up: I have already gone opposite on all four of those games. Lullz.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Though I’m seemingly always on the wrong side of these missed extra points, I live that the nfl moved it back. Makes it exciting and in my opinion there are less pushes w the lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarEveryone talking about analytics, young coaches and the trend to go for it on 4th downQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
It’s b/c the kicking game is so horrible in NFL. Witness alledged 4 time pro bowler Patriot Gostkowski last week. Wretched. Kicking is so simple it should be a gimme to pick up the pace of the game.
Not for some, I guess
12/15/2018 6:37:21 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - HOUSTON TEXANS AT NEW YORK JETS [DRIVE PROPS] SIDE TEXANS -3.5 -110
So lucky there to cover Texans by .5. Heart was racing during kick. Sigh.
Fuck that noise - I’m with you. App st is a good team.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
LFG
San the Leafs are down 2-0.
You know what to do.
I only jumped on the Utah under train once (regrettably), but please note that they are the only team in the NBA consistently playing defense recently, plus they really aren't very good offensively.
In 5 of the past 10 games, one or both teams scored fewer than 92.
Please make a note of it.
2-2 now.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Damn. Obv missedQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog2-2 now.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Need to get my password over to you
Saturday nights are costing me money.
A lot of chalk but Canelo by KO TKO at -400 is a Christmas gift
Just found it -300.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Should get JMM"s approval.
Bingo. Xmas came early
Nice call on that one. Appreciate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Thanks