*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

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Originally Posted by abrown83

Druff,

I can't believe how -EV of a play you are making on the Biden bets. It actually hurts me personally to know you would do this.

You are only considering the win side of the equation.

What about the losing side of the bet?

Let's say you had a stop loss at $.10 on PredictIt.

So you have picked up another 50% EV, which significantly outweighs the PredictIt fees.

At this point the only people I see winning the nomination are:

Booker
Mayor Pete
Tom Steyer
Klobuchar
Clinton

November will be telling, but I think Pete is going to win Iowa.

One of these second tier candidates is going to get hot in the weeks leading up to Iowa, if it's not Pete I am guessing it will be Booker or Klobuchar (both are better candidates than Biden and if they can get his support they could tidal wave the nomination).

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You were right about Trump, but you're very wrong here.

All five of the people you listed above have virtually no shot at winning the nomination.

We are getting close to November. Even in the pre-social-media days of Presidential election, it was very uncommon for a candidate polling in the single digits on November 1 to win the nomination.

Nowadays, it's really difficult, because we are exposed to so much more information than we used to be. If you aren't jumping out to the top few spots early, you're screwed. In the past, sometimes a candidate could rocket up into relevance late, because we didn't have enough exposure to them (or the other candidates, for that matter).

Trump actually proved that in 2015/2016. For a long time, people were dismissing his early lead as just gimmickry, and assumed that he would wear out his welcome and a "real" candidate would take over. Even I fell into that trap. But it didn't happen. Trump proved that early momentum in the primary process is huge (as is constant exposure, which he got for free from the mainstream media which WANTED him to be the one facing Hillary... oops!)

It's a 3-person race.

Biden
Warren
Sanders

For the reasons stated in my post, I think Sanders is already a longshot at this point.

Biden +500 is yuuuuuuuuge value.

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Biden is +500 on Betonline right now for Dem primary.

You can bet up to $500. You should totally go do this. Great value.

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How much have you put on this position?

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$500

Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

Predictit is idiotic with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

How much have you put on this position?

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$500

Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

Predictit is faggot with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.

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If I didn’t think that Joe Biden would be a mediocre candidate who would help to perpetuate the corporatist Democratic agenda if elected, I’d be routing for you to make bank on this position.

P.S. Can’t Benjamin’s mom sign up and take a similar size position?

quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all

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Originally Posted by sonatine

quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all

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To be fair:

1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

3) All hot women are batshit.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all

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True, but that no longer is a disqualification for being president.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all

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wonkette.com, which of course in German means a whale's vagina.

One of the few Ds that makes sense is batshit huh?

Agree to disagree.

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Also, I know of a very reliable book that Americans can get Biden at better than 10 to 1. Can't place a giant wager, but can get decent enough action on it. But I think I'll keep it to myself, especially given how dismissive Druff has been (no offense)

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Originally Posted by nightmarefish

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Originally Posted by sonatine

quick reminder that gabbard is batshit.

https://www.wonkette.com/tulsi-gabba...ections-is-all

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To be fair:

1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

3) All hot women are batshit.

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please, by all means, point me to where/how?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

How much have you put on this position?

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$500

Wish I could do more. I'm looking for reliable books which allow it.

Predictit is faggot with their fees, so I want to avoid them whenever I can.

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5-1 with practically a front runner is not good value, it's great value

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by nightmarefish

To be fair:

1) The DNC did rig the 2016 nom didn’t they?

2) Everyone with a chance at the Dem nom is also batshit. Although, when Bernie went on JRE he came across as far more normal than I thought he was.

3) All hot women are batshit.

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please, by all means, point me to where/how?

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giving one candidate the debate questions in advance seems like rigging it to me

Oh god is fatotine acting up again honestly we apologize on our behalf not just for you

He's literally soooooo fat and old

https://youtu.be/cGBbaYeEUik

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

It's a 3-person race.

Biden
Warren
Sanders

For the reasons stated in my post, I think Sanders is already a longshot at this point.

Biden +500 is yuuuuuuuuge value.

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Warren is the smartest one out of this group.

Biden has too many brain farts.
Sanders is too old and has health problems.

Time to board the "Elizabeth Warren" train...

https://grrrgraphics.com/wp-content/..._choo_choo.jpg

https://66.media.tumblr.com/33e39c25...b018f91532.jpg

DRUFF IS DUMPING MONEY

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Ya so were gonna need you to simmer it down sidefish

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Originally Posted by blake

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Originally Posted by sonatine

please, by all means, point me to where/how?

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giving one candidate the debate questions in advance seems like rigging it to me

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ohhhhhh yeah, thank you. i always assume they are referring to the 'they ignored the popular vote to choose hillary over bernie' rt.com conspiracy theory when i hear that, i forgot about the questions honestly.

also doing that shit by email = pure boomer.

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I just single-handedly moved the Betonline line on Biden from +500 to +450.

Apologies to those of you tailing me whom haven't fired yet.