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First I got unlucky, then I got lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
3-2 after 8.
You knew what was going to happen.
3 runs in the top of the 9th, and its 5-3.
Then a leadoff single for Freeman. A strikeout, and then a stolen base and another out.
Then Inciarte hit a textbook base hit to right, which would have scored Freeman and beaten me, but it wasn't a base hit. 6'4" DJ LeMahieu leaped up and caught it over his head, and the game was over.
Gonna say it now.. Take the Padres against Dbacks tonight.. Robbie Ray has been a serious underperformer lately.. His ERA is approaching 5 and while Dbacks are favored barely in this game they seriously shot their wad Thursday night scored 5 runs in the first and got shutdown completely after that.. The Padres pitcher Lucchesi has a significantly better ERA and his WHIP is just over 1 compared to Ray's 1.6.. Dbacks are anywhere from -120 to -130 depending While SD is +108 to +115
I was watching. You got your entertainment value.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffFirst I got unlucky, then I got lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
3-2 after 8.
You knew what was going to happen.
3 runs in the top of the 9th, and its 5-3.
Then a leadoff single for Freeman. A strikeout, and then a stolen base and another out.
Then Inciarte hit a textbook base hit to right, which would have scored Freeman and beaten me, but it wasn't a base hit. 6'4" DJ LeMahieu leaped up and caught it over his head, and the game was over.
How about Nix vs Buccholz? I was under 8
Nix rocketed through the minors and getting his shot during garbage time. He stunned mom and grandma in his first lights out appearance. Buccholz and his new pitch is pure entertainment for a guy who followed his collosal fail in Boston.
Anyway, Nix gave up 5 runs in the 1st and got yanked. I swear to you I was inspired by many of your recent unders and shot some additional live under money. Only 1 more run was scored the rest on the game. Unreal. I still can’t believe it.
Haven’t had time today so I’ll lean on youQuote:
Originally Posted by Ryback_feed_me_more
Padres can’t hit and Luchesi is under rated you say. Thus, he holds Diamondbacks.
This sounds like an under to my mind. Reviewing my recent pregame bet history - I snap went opposite of myself.
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 914 ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS/SAN DIEGO PADRES OVER 7½ -110 FOR GAME
Good Luck Ryback
*************
Here’s an interesting one
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 902 NEW YORK METS/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES UNDER 7½ -101 FOR GAME
The under has been the play in a combined 14 of the last 20 for both teams
Both teams are ranked 20th & 27th in offense
Syndergaard & Nola. Especially, Syndergaard should be feeling more normal after hand/foot/mouth.
Best of all. Line opened 7 and in some spots it is now 8. This has to be a reaction to Simpdog’s blowout win.
Only thing we have to fear is Mets bullpen. Syndergaard should be my friend here
A move like this has to be sharp money too. Too much for the public to be solely responsible for.
I love this and will add to my position on better prices.
Wash and cleveland both -380
Do you take Orioles and Miami and hope for the best?
The Nats are actually scoring runs recently. The Nats bullpen isn’t as funny as it once was. Besides, Scherzer is liable to defy the manager and race the reliever to the mound in the 9th.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Save that unit to fade Kershaw Sunday. You guys think I’m just trolling but you are also waiting in line at the Olive Garden for a table
I’m dining with Draymond with my Kershaw $. Liquid as fuck
*****
O’s Indians
Orioles are tied for first in home runs with 41 since the break. The team is slashing an MLB-best .286/.346/.485 at the plate during that span without that deadbeat Machada that they bamboozled onto the Dodgers
If you wanna be a hero this could be your spot.
Minutes to spare
Syndergaard 1st 5 plus $
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 901 NEW YORK METS +125 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS
Oops
Yeah I saw that, but it's not as amazing as you think.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI was watching. You got your entertainment value.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
How about Nix vs Buccholz? I was under 8
Nix rocketed through the minors and getting his shot during garbage time. He stunned mom and grandma in his first lights out appearance. Buccholz and his new pitch is pure entertainment for a guy who followed his collosal fail in Boston.
Anyway, Nix gave up 5 runs in the 1st and got yanked. I swear to you I was inspired by many of your recent unders and shot some additional live under money. Only 1 more run was scored the rest on the game. Unreal. I still can’t believe it.
I call it the "complacency and hopelessness baseball syndrome".
The team jumping out to a big early lead stops hitting because they feel they don't need to, and the team way behind kinda gives up and gets into an immediate funk, feeling they won't catch up.
I would much rather see a 5-0 first inning than 3-2, for multiple reasons.
Anyway, I grabbed Nix on my fantasy team after his good prior start, and then this fiasco happened. Not good.
Fortunately I had a bad feeling about Junior Guerra this week and benched him. He gave up 7 ER in 2 2/3.
Actually agree with this one and will be officially posting it shortly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryback_feed_me_more
Complacency and hopelessness.
Describes me with my Mets game
Here we go:
Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 (under 9 up to -125 ok)
at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray)
Looking at the KC under but not sure about it yet.
Decided to skip the KC game. Will stick with the two I posted.
Cleveland under is going well (2-0, bottom 6th), but regretting skipping the KC now. That one is 0-0 in the 3rd.
Complacency & Hopelessness are alive with the Mets Phillies after dreadful 1st
It’s never over til it’s over. Wait, I mean it’s never under til it’s over.
Ahh... so nice when your under is an easy win without stress. 5th win in a row, after an ugly slump.
Now I just need my first side in a long time (thanks Ryback for making me look more closely at it) to win. Go Padres!
Well I’m not super duper nervous about it but Josh Allen with a job on day one wasn’t want I wanted to see.
Of course, when I finally bet on Lucchesi again (I did once early in the season and won), he has a crap outing and coughs up 4 runs in 2 innings.
Ray isn't exactly unhittable tonight, so the Padres have a chance, but they're down 4-2.
I should stick to unders.
I was actually pulling for Padres offense. In isolation this is a clear signal I have a gambling problemQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I need the over 7.5
Well, you've got that, despite the Padres repeatedly choking with 2 runners on and 0 out.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI was actually pulling for Padres offense. In isolation this is a clear signal I have a gambling problemQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I need the over 7.5
5-3 after 5, but Arizona threatening again in the 6th.
This probably isn't winning.
Souza with a 3-RBI double.
8-3. Game effectively over. Fuck sides.
Goodnight, friends.
We have some unders today, but they start soon!
Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105
Take Colo +140 vs Atl
TB + 180 vs Bos
Can we bet 500 heads up and if u lose I get to pick a craigslist hobo and u have to vouch for him and let him sleep near ur awful non wood burning oven
St. Louis Cardinals futures, let's discuss.
9-1 last 10
Now 4 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central.
Currently occupying 2nd wildcard.
NL Central +800
NL Champs +1600
World Series Champs +3500
Clearly World Series at +3500 is the worst value, as the AL team is almost surely to be fairly favored if the Cards make it there.
I think NL Central is probably the best bet.
Why?
Cubs pitching is questionable.
Cards are just 4 games back, and are super hot. Matheny's firing seems to have energized them.
Brewers are fading, and fell behind the Cards.
I think them being NL Central is probably more than twice as likely than for them to win the NL. Why? Because if they only make it as a wildcard, they have to win the wildcard game, then win TWO series.
What do you guys think? Do you like either of those bets?
Won 7 of last 9 after an extended slump. 7-1 in last 8 unders, and the only loser was very close (Miami/Atl).
8/13:
Washington (Milone) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 +100 - LOST -1
8/14
Boston (Porcello) at Philly (Pivetta) - Under 9 -125 - WON +0.800
Tampa (H Wood) at Yankees (Happ) - Under 8.5 -107 - WON +0.935
8/15
Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
8/16
Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
8/17
Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 - WON +1.050
at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - LOST -1
8/18
Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5 - LOST -1
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050
TOTAL 8/13-8/18: 7-3, +3.445
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 59-44-2
Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)
Grand total: 87-78-2, +9.770 units
You're thinking about the NL Champs line incorrectly. Let's assume the only time they win the NL Champ is if they also win the NL central. What are the implied odds that they win their first playoff game? 50%. But, that's not the only possibility. They can also be NL Champs without winning the NL Central. Since some percentage of the time they win the NL Championship without winning the NL Central, that implies that when they do win the NL Central, that they will win that first series less than 50% of the time (ascertaining the exact number is a little more complex, but that's not really the issue). So if you do think they win their first series game at, or close to, half the time, you should definitely bet the NL Champ line, not NL Central. Essentially you're getting an extra freeroll when they only make the wildcard (even if you think they only win twice like 20% of the time).
I agree with staying away with the WS line though.
Because I've been out of town and haven't been taking your picsQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Let's work this through, and pretend the Cards are always a 50-50 shot to win any playoff series (to make it simpler).Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
That would give the Cards a 1-in-8 chance to win the NL as a wildcard. That would
So basically if the Cards make the playoffs via the wildcard, your $100 will average a $112.50 win, and if they make it as the NL Central winner, you'd average a $325 win.
With the NL Central bet, you are getting an $800 win (with no further variance, but let's ignore that), and a $100 loss if they make the wildcard.
If they miss the playoffs, both bets lose, so that's a wash.
So the question comes down to how likely you think it is they'll make the wildcard versus win the Central.
The Cardinals only play the Cubs 3 more times and it will be on the road and the final 3 games of the season. Does that play a factor? I already declared the Cardinals as World Series Champs last week.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffLet's work this through, and pretend the Cards are always a 50-50 shot to win any playoff series (to make it simpler).Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
That would give the Cards a 1-in-8 chance to win the NL as a wildcard. That would
So basically if the Cards make the playoffs via the wildcard, your $100 will average a $112.50 win, and if they make it as the NL Central winner, you'd average a $325 win.
With the NL Central bet, you are getting an $800 win (with no further variance, but let's ignore that), and a $100 loss if they make the wildcard.
If they miss the playoffs, both bets lose, so that's a wash.
So the question comes down to how likely you think it is they'll make the wildcard versus win the Central.
This is the last weekend without “real” football for the next 23 weeks. Thank Christ.
Verlander -152
Todgers under 8 **Kershaw alert.
Jays/Yankees over 8.5
Yup Yanks over & (I got 8) & Sawks over 9 for now (Borucki lol)Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Simp, you dog
Borucki let’s you turn the game off and mow the lawn in the 1st inning. You on fire kid
Like most good goyim, I am resting on Sunday again.
No picks today.
I isolated Kershaw 1st 5 over. Still won.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 4 -125 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS
I still carry the fire
Nice job Simp
I will take 2-1.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI isolated Kershaw 1st 5 over. Still won.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 4 -125 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS
I still carry the fire
Nice job Simp
Kershaw held up his end of the deal but their bats were too good.
I was 2-1 too Simp. Except I paid $32 of juice on Sawks over. Lol, Sawks over 9. Can’t be more wrong.
Kluber (Mulva) vs Porcello (Chef P/Lewfather)
Chef P had a perfect game through 5 last outing. Kluber is Kluber. Sawks bats are cold last 2. I wanna fade Sawks but that’s just hate. I gotta fight through that shit. I should probably skip this whole thing but I won’t hate losing this if that happens.
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 964 CLEVELAND INDIANS/BOSTON RED SOX UNDER 4 -110 FOR 1ST 5 INNINGS
Took another unit @ +110
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 964 CLEVELAND INDIANS/BOSTON RED SOX UNDER 8 -115 FOR GAME
The Sawks middle relief is trash. Gotta dodge that. Thus 1st 5 under.
I missed the hook 4.5 & 8.5 yesterday. I didn’t do my homework. A man has to have a life. I’ll take the positive line move.
I like $ Simp. Show me some picks. I’ll keep shopping meanwhile
I pray for your soul.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The football is already oblong and bounces randomly as Harolobob famously says.
Now you have added more randomness
The preseason week 2 was creepy. If this goes on during the regular season when games actually count, and the outcome of games are affected, it's not going to be good.
The prop player in you will be pounding the overs as they will be handing out 15 yards like popcorn. Unless, of course, they eject your player.
NFL was fun but let’s be serious. Pass interference is already more than I can bear with 50 yard random swings. The new rules just add to the fruitiness of the league.
Deep in my soul I suspect I will flip to college primarily for my entertainment and MAYBE wagering. It’ll be interesting.
I just don’t think I can keep from getting upset watching NFL. Who needs that?
If anybody can find an edge in the new rules changes it’ll be you. I trust you will share.
Everyone and their mother is on the Jays tonight. Baltimore is the only team that the Jays can reliably beat.
Jays -1.5 +110. I guess I'm in on it too now. Estrada showcasing his stuff tonight.
Pirates -115. Battle of two AL pitchers. Hoping Archer is finally settled down and he will be fired up to pitch against a top team.
Cardinals +150 and under 8.5. One team heading up, one heading down. Both pitchers pitching well lately.
Gonna gamble my TSLA profits
Tablet - Football - NFL - 431 Baltimore Ravens -2 -105 for Game
I’m an NFL hypocrite. Maybe you can just strike the NFL from previous sentence.
Crazy Harbaugh takes preseason serious. Hasn’t lost since ... idk what year. He has 3 good QB looking to prove themselves.
Luck prolly token appearance. He gets hurt and there will be hell to pay for new coach.
Line movement to -1.5 I see I see .. oh well
Sorry Simp. Strongly disagree on Pirates. I may face suspension from thread if I don’t end up positive units today.
Tablet - MLB Props - Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Team To Score First - Atlanta Braves -130
Tablet - Baseball - Alt Run Line - 3951 Atlanta Braves -1½ +190 for Game
Listed pitchers K. Gausman C. Archer
Kevin Gausman Pitched an Entire Start From the Stretch and He Was Filthy against Brewers
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 964 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox under 4 +110 for 1st 5 Innings
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 964 Cleveland Indians/Boston Red Sox under 8 -115 for Game
Wish I could take Astros Cole over Seattle Hernandez somehow or some way but can’t at these prices and RL with Astros offense doesn’t feel smart.
Fuck it. What Would Druff Do (WWDD) opposite
Mostly Felix fade
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 970 Houston Astros/Seattle Mariners over 8 -115 for Game
Damn, missed my GA meeting. Hell yeah, fade Dodgers. I’m backing a guy named Goober - that’s worth something
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 957 St. Louis Cardinals +161 for Game