My 'favorite' pick for today: Cubs -160
My 'underdog' pick for today: Reds +240
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My 'favorite' pick for today: Cubs -160
My 'underdog' pick for today: Reds +240
Have some action on Cubs...let's go PLOL!
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Slumping a bit recently.
If this continues, I may shut it down until early season NBA, for the most part.
In the meantime...
Toronto (Clippard) at Seattle (F. Hernandez) - Under 9 -115
NOTE: Toronto is doing a bullpen game.
My b
BOL has live batter props for Dodgers 10 Brewers 2 blowout
Position players are likely to come in for Brewers. First game of series, etc etc
Perez likely.
Just throw over the plate and let the defense pick it up. 1-3 pitches is the prop.
It’s a choice spot.
Good luck
I’m gonna get shut off but fuck em
It just dawned on me.
Win the rest bets.
8/3/2018 12:18:16 AM
DESCRIPTION:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERS [BATTER PROPS] WIN THE REST - (DODGERS 17 : BREWERS 5) DODGERS +190
Are you kidding me? +190 and they are tossing taters
21-5
Stealing
The commissioner may stop this game. Cause integrity
How did you get +190 on that?
Did Milwaukee had men on base or something?
Anyway, I got screwed pretty hard today.
Under 9.
2-2 after 6.
4-2 after 7 1/2.
Then 1 in the bottom of the 8th and 3 in the 9th, and it's game over for me. Final score, 7-3.
:gay3
I think the market is dead wrong on Ohio State week 1. If it hits 34.5 I’m
Jumping in. I think they are going to fucking hammer Oregon State
Verlander -110 @ Todgers
Dodgers too tired from running around the bases yesterday.
No, I am pretty sure I fired at the end of the 7th. On news of position player Perez coming in. He has been in these spots before.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Win the Rest is a 3 way bet and typically an idiotic offering.
Assume the Dodgers are winning in a typical fashion, you might see:
Dodgers +150
Tie -120
Brewers -130
I am pulling these sample numbers as best as I can as I usually give only a cursory view. But I’m in the neighborhood.
The team leading is offered as the dog almost automatically. You can speculate about the reasoning. The Dodgers +190 was higher than usual and that thankfully triggered the thought. The higher the difference in the score? IDK
In these blowouts I tune in the losing team on the MLB package. The announcers start speculating in an informed way about their bullpen and their coach’s thinking. Who might serve the taters next inning? Has he pitched before in college etc. The home team announcers are jerking each other off and not helpful.
As I posted, Perez was coming in per Brewers announcers. He is gonna loft taters over the plate to Muncy and Puig or whoever. Dodgers have Baez warming. Dodgers actually trying to pitch so win the rest was a plus plus spot.
As written before, I have been betting 1-3 pitches as a way to exploit these situations. It’s a +EV spot but variance with foul balls, exists of course. In last night’s game, the Brewers put out an amateur knuckleballer in the next (9th inning) and he couldn’t control it as expected. My enthusiasm got the best of me.
Fortunately, the guys in the little grass huts caught on and shut the prop off after first batter and that limited my mistake.
Interestingly, the BOL live page posts winning batter props as they happen in a clever marketing ploy. I could see folks were catching on
The Win the Rest started to get hammered too in the 8th. You could see it fall a nickel a minute. I was already on it
Max bet for Win the Rest was $1050 and the batter prop was $250. I have been mining these position player spots and despite being a nit ordinarily I now felt confident enough to get it in good and let it play out.
I listen to wagering shows including VSIN and everyone talks about the crazy position player trend. VSIN is a huge believer in exploiting the new trend in “in game” wagering and they rightfully believe this is where the growth lies. Yet they and others have never discussed strategies to exploit.
There was another blowout yesterday. I wonder what happened there. I only made time for Dodgers. You know why. Wink
Altuve & Correia out. Astros offense slumping.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
The under total 7.5 -115 seems like the way to go. It’s an obvious play and I am reticent but it was 7 last night.
It’s a great World Series redux and another Dodgers test so I am interested in the game and may fire for the sweat.
The Dodgers prospect, Joseph Goebbels, has a live arm but should stick to Nazi propaganda like FPS.
Love Indians over Angels ML and RL.
I am fully aware of Clevenger.
Oddly and probably a good sign, the game isn’t offered. Somethings up.
Whatever money is on Angels is just love for a dying patient.
Lineups just came out. It should be avail
Here we go......tail at your own risk....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ruh-roh.
And the sign said "Long-haired freaky people need not apply"Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ruh-roh.
Starting at 5:10 PDT
San Francisco (A. Suarez) at Arizona (Buchholz) - Under 8.5 -115
How come you don't pick sides anymore? Totals are no fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They're especially no fun when I'm not effortlessly winning them anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assHow come you don't pick sides anymore? Totals are no fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
AZ hung a high five on Suarez in the first.
Now I have to just hope that it becomes one of these games where both sides lose motivation to play when one jumps out to a big lead, and barely any runs score going forward.
But I'm probably fucked.
I stopped picking sides because I was just spinning my wheels with them. My edge was coming from totals, but recently I have been losing them, so like I did with the NBA in the mid-late season, I may just shut down.
I bet I'll kick ass with the unders in the NBA again this year in the early and early/mid season, and struggle after that.
Maybe the right strategy is just to fade myself once I get to the midpoint of the season!
Todd,
As we have talked about at times in the past it’s hard to beat MLB. It’s damn near impossible to do it over a whole 162. I seem to recall you tailing off towards the end of last season as well. Do you have notes on last year to compare to this years results?
Reason why I ask is the few guys that I know who do bet MLB tend to taper off after the All Star Break. Sport becomes even more difficult to beat. Curious as to your thoughts.
ZoD and I had a long exchange earlier today on a different matter. At the end I shared with him my Hot takes on the upcoming football season. I figured I’d share (some of this isn’t new)
BC over 5.5 was stealing (seeing 7 now), BC +15.5 vs Clemson in the game of the year is a buy,BC vs Umass -18 week 1 is a buy - think I’m going to be backing BC a lot early on this season.
FSU will be hard pressed not to win at least 7 games... really can’t see them not doing it.
UCLA won’t win 6 with that schedule
OHIO U will win the MAC - over 8.5 is good, but most seem to like under
Boise Boise Boise Boise, blue turf, blue turf..... I get it. But put me down for Fresno State in the Mountan West.
If you can find Auburn week one -2.5 buy it, will be 3 by kickoff if not already
Big Ben under 4450 passing yards is “lockish” - done it once in 15 years
T Gurley might go over 1350 yards but give me the under all day long. In today’s NFL it’s just incredibly hard to do.
Kamura Under 950 rushing is a play, over priced by 150 yards
D Watson led the league in fantasy points in the half season he started, buy in fantasy and for MVP
By week one of the Presason I have a list together for OROY..... this year I don’t have a good feel for anyone. None of the QB really stand out.
So what is the GOY?
“Vegas” (i think it’s the south point, but if someone knows for sure I’d love to hear it) picks out a handfulQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Of games in weeks 2-12 of the NCAAF season for people to bet on, AKA “game of the year”. I’m not suggesting BC vs Clemson in week 11 will be the “game of the year” to watch. I’m saying that anything over 2 TD is worth betting because I’m expecting the betting public’s opinions to change by the time the game rolls around.
We are all the goys.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I bet Cody +114 tonight.
Yankees +105. Price folds in the playoffs I feel the same today.
Seattle -145. Jays on a little streak but let's face it they are awful.
These first 2 plays you don’t overthink. There are fundamental rules of wagering that you must follow if you like money over the long haul.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
You’re getting plus money on Cole vs a rookie, Buehler, in August
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 929 HOUSTON ASTROS +105 FOR GAME
Astros Dodgers should be the Sunday Night game not Sawks Yanks
Rule 2: You autofade Price in playoffs or vs Yankees especially if you get plus money. The Yankees batters are gonna be knocking the manager’s door down trying to get in the lineup.
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 927 NEW YORK YANKEES +101 FOR GAME
The last one is a bit trickier. I like the recent Indians news too. It’s cheap Wade Miley imo
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 910 MILWAUKEE BREWERS -109 FOR GAME
Good to see you in action Simp
Slumping lately.
Starting at 1:10pm PDT
Detroit (F. Liriano) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -119
Well I have been basically doing just a few sides, ML and RL, and then choices I feel really strong about, I just wait to live bet. Seems to be working very well. I load up pretty big bets on the live bets, since I am getting reduced odds but I only bet picks I feel very strong about and the game is unfolding in my favor. makes for some swings, and only good reliever teams do I go for.
Kind of been doing the sameQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Also been betting e sports for zero reason at all. That needs to stop
I am a menace to the thread and myself latelyQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
I was almost motivated to review my history today. Laziness prevailed but I know I am having more success live. It’s like the difference between poker where you get to see your cards before betting versus pit games where you bet before the action starts.
I have way too much attitude and prejudice pregame. It’s a leak.
Keep up the success live and hurt ‘em bad, Charham
Boston (Pomeranz) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120
The Boston under loooking pretty good in the 8th.
All day I've considered the Angels under.
But I can't pull the trigger. Jacob Turner is just awwwwwwwwwful, and he even sucked in the minors.
I can't in good conscience bet that one.
3-1 at the end of 7.
Boston hangs 4 in the top of the 8th, and now it's 5-3. JD barely hit a 3-run shot.
So once again, it's gonna be close. I have one more run that can be allowed in the final 1.5.
This also sucks because now I can only win if the bottom of the 9th is played, so the game going from 3-1 to 5-3 the other way has created another 0.5 innings of play.
:gay
Lost in the bottom of the 9th. Unbelievable.
3-1 after 7 in an under 9.5 game is an extreme favorite to win.
It's definitely gotten tougher to pick these unders, but I've also run really terrible in most of the close ones.
The odds go thin come end of year/playoffs
The edge is thin except for the end of season mismatches.
Positively no regrets losing this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays over 5 -115 for 1st 5 Innings
First, this was Pomeranz starting for the Sawks. You were incredibly lucky to even be in the game. Despite your fluky Pomeranz luck, he was awful.
We have been through the Pomeranz thing a dozen times. He has cost you money before. Fortunately for you, he is probably never going to start again for the Sawks. He was that bad today.
Next, the Sawks middle relievers are not good.
At best they are sorting things out. I choose to think Dombrowski failed to address post season relief. This has been his MO since Tigers Scherzer/Verlander
Dombrowski is 1-11 post season. Those kind of results you earn. Kinda like the Dodgers, right?
The Sawks post season pitching has the potential to be a heart attack. Meanwhile they will come from behind against the trash opposition.
There are times I think Druff approaches games from the perspective that neither starting pitcher (or staff) is as bad as they appear. He perceives value in these spots.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
You will rarely see him plant himself in the midst of two Aces squaring off.
I thought the Dodgers under was two good pitchers who had recent quality starts pointing toward even better results.
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 930 LOS ANGELES DODGERS/OAKLAND ATHLETICS UNDER 8 -110 FOR GAME
Manaea was excellent in his latest start, holding the Blue Jays to only one run in six innings, leading to the win to lift his record to 10-7. The third-year right-hander has been the A’s best starter this season, sporting a 3.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 141.1 innings logged on the year. He held the Dodgers to only two runs in five innings in a 4-0 loss earlier this season in his first career meeting against L.A. Manea is showing great control, walking only two batters over his last three starts.
Rich Hill will get the starting nod for the 16th time of the season, eying his fourth consecutive Quality Start. Hill was sharp in his previous start, limiting the Brewers to only two runs (one earned) in six innings, resulting in a no-decision in a 6-4 Dodgers’ win. The 6-foot-5 veteran left-hander has been excellent in three straight starts, and he features a solid 3.63 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP
Both relief staffs were quality.
MOBILE - BASEBALL - MLB - 926 HOUSTON ASTROS/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS UNDER 7 +112 FOR GAME
Keuchel v Bumgarner
Enough said
There are plenty of good spots. Lotsa tough mismatches too
Good pitching generally trumps good hitting.
I am not without sin. I did some bad things today too.
Week 1 NFL Line’s out. Pretty much every game is less than a three point spread. Need a CMoney appearance here for a bold week 1 pic! Anyone else here reading the tea leaves?
Another day, and no MLB pics. 3-4 interesting road teams, I will load up on live depending how the pitchers start off. But I am not coming close to pulling the trigger before. Kershaw and Arrieta at home in their prime were getting -300, now much lessor pitchers and teams on the road seem to be getting -300. Can't make money on that except to start taking the other side for value.