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I have to think the UFC thought Connor has a better chance against Mendes then Edgar, but I dont think either is a great matchup vs Connor. They're both to small. If Connor is legit he should be able to keep Mendes at length and pick him apart. This is finally the fight where we find out if Connor is legit or not. I think he is and dominates.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by ShadyJI have to think the UFC thought Connor has a better chance against Mendes then Edgar, but I dont think either is a great matchup vs Connor. They're both to small. If Connor is legit he should be able to keep Mendes at length and pick him apart. This is finally the fight where we find out if Connor is legit or not. I think he is and dominates.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Valid, but Connor hasnt been inoculated against high level takedowns yet in competition. Connor is clearly talented enough to get there but has he yet? Hard to say.
http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/att...3&d=1436305816
4 days out from weigh-ins, and probably 20something lbs still to go.
Wow if your estimate of 20+ lbs is accurate. A gallon of water is 8 lbs.
It seems he's either not making weight, dying from dehydration or your estimate is off.
You sure on the 20 lbs part?
I had food poisoning once, spewed all my fluids and fell asleep with heater on. Pretty sure I was near death the next morning.
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Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
Don't know but....
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/6/...89-chad-mendes
It seems like so long ago... how time fucks with the memories.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I thought I agreed with you, then I looked at Gil's record. He fought in Strikeforce, and won their inaugural LHW title, before he ever fought in PRIDE. (Six of his 27 bouts took place in Japan/ 3 Shooto, 3 Pride.) I think we have to include Strikeforce as part of Gilbert's prime/glory days.
not positive, no, but not far off if wrong. He's a massive 145er as opposed to a Cerrone-sized 155er. with the IV ban looming, guys like him will be moving up sooner than later, probably.Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
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Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
It might be closer to 15lbs by now, but 20 was a good supposition. Nearly all of those lbs is water weight. (Fighters walk around near or at full hydration until beginning their final cut, roughly 24hrs out.)
The last ten-15 will ideally come off day of weigh in though sweat then go right back on as soon as he steps off the scale.
Read this to learn a bit about weight cuts: http://fourhourworkweek.com/2013/05/...ut-weight-ufc/
"I don't know how he's going to do it." Chael Sonnen Wow!Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBetQuote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
Don't know but....
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/6/...89-chad-mendes
Chael's been cutting weight and been around other guys cutting weight pretty much his entire life. Conor doesn't have a background in wrestling so it's not like he's done this countless times. Perfect recipe for a tragedy. Perhaps there should some rules on in place on cutting weight.
Supposedly "haven't seen it" on UFC embedded Mendes was hyperventilating then holding his breath under water as long as possible. What he was doing was a perfect recipe for a lil known but dangerous phenomenon known as shallow water blackout. Some divers and even a guy who lost his brother to this were on Sherdog freaking out trying to get word to the UFC and Mendes.
Good to know if you have kids or swim frequently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shallow_water_blackout
http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/7/7/...source=twitter
McGregor offered Dana and Lorenzo a $3,000,000 bet that he'll knock Mendes out. Gotta give him credit for the confidence edge.
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Originally Posted by shortbuspoker
Pretty amazing hedge; if he cant make weight, he will show up 30 pounds overweight and club Mendes with impunity for a 3m binkjob.
Interesting and good to know. Conor should be aight if he's not employing any bro science.Quote:
Originally Posted by KuntmissionerQuote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
It might be closer to 15lbs by now, but 20 was a good supposition. Nearly all of those lbs is water weight. (Fighters walk around near or at full hydration until beginning their final cut, roughly 24hrs out.)
The last ten-15 will ideally come off day of weigh in though sweat then go right back on as soon as he steps off the scale.
Read this to learn a bit about weight cuts: http://fourhourworkweek.com/2013/05/...ut-weight-ufc/
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Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by sonatine
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Originally Posted by simpdog
McGregor -180Quote:
Originally Posted by Shizzmoney
Mendes +158 at 5dimes right now. Reportedly, the money coming in to the books is hanging steadily at 70% for Conor.
I really do hate the fact that Conor is going to show up to the fight a good 15+ pounds heavier than Mendes. I hate that a lot.
I really do hate that I didn't take Connor right away then hedged on fight night.
Could have been a dead easy scalp of likely $250 due to max bets being so low
I am hammering Mendes hard . Lets the Irish put their life savings on McGregor. It will only will make me more money with Mendes dismantles him.
Mendes +165 @ 5dimes.
edit: back down to +160.
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Originally Posted by cmoney
If Mendes wins the UFC loses big time. I mean everyone cant wait for Mendes/Aldo 3 right? Theres no chance the Billionares arent paying Mendes to not win this fight. Im not sure he could win anyways its just a bad matchup. look at J Jones vs everyone except Gus. He used the huge reach advantage. Conor knows how to use his reach.Quote:
Originally Posted by cmoney
How many times has Poirer been knocked out? Then he gets clipped lightly and hes out. He probably got a mill ticket for that. if the fight is on the up n up Mendes still has to win, but if its not he has no chance to win.
Irish money nope that Fertita money cause its going to be like WWE.
As weird as that Poirer KO was, the UFC's still totally legit imo. If Mendes is taking a snooze in the opening minutes that'll be epic. Conor may very well hit really fuckin hard. Saw a Mendes interview, my read is plan A he may try to KO Conor standing, plan B wrestle, oh shit maybe the fix is in. (;Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadyJIf Mendes wins the UFC loses big time. I mean everyone cant wait for Mendes/Aldo 3 right? Theres no chance the Billionares arent paying Mendes to not win this fight. Im not sure he could win anyways its just a bad matchup. look at J Jones vs everyone except Gus. He used the huge reach advantage. Conor knows how to use his reach.Quote:
Originally Posted by cmoney
How many times has Poirer been knocked out? Then he gets clipped lightly and hes out. He probably got a mill ticket for that. if the fight is on the up n up Mendes still has to win, but if its not he has no chance to win.
Irish money nope that Fertita money cause its going to be like WWE.
Oh and Lawler is a lock imo.
Cyborg is fighting tonite, btw. On fightpass for Invicta.
I've never sportsbet, what exactly does -2500 on Cyborg mean.
If I bet 10k on cyborg at -2500 what would i get if I win?
Bet ol Sixtoed has a bottle of lotion ready.
You'd win $400Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
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Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyCyborg is fighting tonite, btw. On fightpass for Invicta.
I have never seen odds like that in any kind of fight
i think fedor v zulu was along those lines.
That's outrageous, no easy money in sports betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22You'd win $400Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
Let me have $200 on red...
the chick fights have been pretty good so far
http://www.gofeed2all.eu/watch/35553...cta-fc-13.html
Dunno who that chick in there with Cyborg was, but she sure looked outta place.
$100 freeroll on Kountermove for tomorrow:
http://www.kountermove.com/join/4460...or-711-T-free/
good call. here's two more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
http://www.kountermove.com/draft/446...T-free/568230/
http://www.kountermove.com/draft/446...T-free/568233/
You really think in a sport with underpaid athletes that can bet against themselves its all on the up n up? Were talking money and Vegas. Who knows maybe Dana thinks Conor is so good it doesnt matter who he puts him in there with, but I just dont think they can risk him losing. Theres really no other male marketable fighters on the roster. When the biggest mma fight we wanna see is between 2 chicks then somethings wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_RussiaAs weird as that Poirer KO was, the UFC's still totally legit imo. If Mendes is taking a snooze in the opening minutes that'll be epic. Conor may very well hit really fuckin hard. Saw a Mendes interview, my read is plan A he may try to KO Conor standing, plan B wrestle, oh shit maybe the fix is in. (;Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadyJ
Oh and Lawler is a lock imo.
From listening to Mendes he doesnt sound like hes taking a dive but either did Poirer. If the fight is all above board then Dana believes Conor will win its that simple. Or they're just so fucking rich they dont even care that a Conor loss will hurt them badly.
Mendes at +155 on Bovada....I've fired a small shell because of the value, and I think the short camp helps Mendes.
Rogan on the podcast yesterday thinks Mendes should be a near dog or even a favorite.
Schaub made a good point yesterday on how much this would mean for the UFC business wise for Conor to win. It could have a "moneymaker" effect for the sport, especially in europe.
Conor in the 1st by Inside Distance OR Mendes in a decision would be the two results I'd bet around.
Also, Cyborg needs to fight Tate already, beat her ass, and then we can set up the match with Ronda. If Ronda beats Cyborg, she should just retire as the best ever b/c none of these bitches are even close to her.
Cyborg and Ronda/Tate arent in the same weight class and Cyborg has ruled out dropping to it 'for medical reasons'.
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Originally Posted by Shizzmoney
I got a buddy in Vegas to throw some on Mendes for me. Honestly i would have done a lot more at +175 but the casino capped the betting at 2k. I felt bad asking him to drive around town going to different casinos. He could very well lose but +175 is an amazing value imo.
Short camp for a 5 round fight don't help anyone, imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shizzmoney
If Mendes is awake in minute one of round 3, hes probably going to be dominating in round 5. This is sort of a binary equation; either Mednes spends the majority of 25 minutes in top control or the the second round includes him blinking on a stool, asking the ref what happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyShort camp for a 5 round fight don't help anyone, imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Shizzmoney
So in short, either Mendes could win or Mendes could loose, thats just very expert.
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Originally Posted by adamantium
http://i.imgur.com/99k2ZzW.png
The question was; does a short camp influence Mendes' odds? My point was that it probably wont matter since Mendes is going out fast or hes conserving energy by riding top position all night.
wouldnt Conor preparing for a very different opponent swing odds in Mendes direction?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by adamantium
http://i.imgur.com/99k2ZzW.png
The question was; does a short camp influence Mendes' odds? My point was that it probably wont matter since Mendes is going out fast or hes conserving energy by riding top position all night.
"I can rest my balls on your forehead" HOF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6HIZX3rfpI