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Trump once upon a time got his energy from his audience. He also learned what the public responded to and used that information in his campaign.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Because his internal polling shows they are winning pretty easily. Again, no one here will see the obvious. Why waste money before their convention?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Laying low might be smart but sure isn’t Trump. He’s like a comedien who needs to do stand up to keep sharp and hone his material.
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to me shes not a blank page but simply the promise of a centerist, no-nonsense administration thats not going to 'put it all in christs hands' and let the chips fall where they may.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWe have no real idea what her policies and positions might be. Not sure how you embrace a blank page. Example, word is she is more hawkish about the border - her previous statements as VP are offered as evidence of flip flop. Who knowsQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
By the same token Trump was yammering some nonsense that anyone who completes a degree from a U.S. college would get a diploma and citizenship thus reducing colleges and junior colleges to diploma mills.
Time for a debate
aka bidenism.
i do think that shes going to go after the homeless drug addict plague and urban retail crime plague and i think shes going to do it quietly and without a public debate and tbh i think thats exactly how it needs to be handled. id be sad if i was wrong. but i think in 2028 thats going to be the cornerstone of her campaign and in 2032, tim's going to inherit a compassionate law and order position with numbers to back it up.
but again i dont need a lot of performative spectacle from her because to your point, she _is_ kind of a hawkish moderate who isnt going to remold democracy as a christian theocracy and that really does have appeal well beyond partisan boundaries, despite what splitthis and vaughn keep saying.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTrump once upon a time got his energy from his audience. He also learned what the public responded to and used that information in his campaign.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Laying low might be smart but sure isn’t Trump. He’s like a comedien who needs to do stand up to keep sharp and hone his material.
.
hes waiting for the flames to die down. pulling his orders from a hostile market and all that.
lmao ok wait
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUy8Y7WW...pg&name=medium
its really possible that trumpism has gotten people so fucking exhausted that they are willing to elect a black woman as president to stave off another 4 years of mentally ill drama.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
hes waiting for the flames to die down. pulling his orders from a hostile market and all that.
lmao ok wait
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUy8Y7WW...pg&name=medium
plot twist: elon literally played the 'i have better things to do' card at the last minute and blew this off
I do agree 100% to sit tight until Harris has her coronation at the convention. But I also do not think Trump is winning easily. Yeah, he is probably up slightly, I actually think it will come down to the debates. Harris is dumber than a sack of hammers, I think she will have an implosion before November. But here again, she has the entire main stream media on her side, and that is a powerful edge. I am just thankful it's Harris as opposed to Mike Obama or Oprah. Then it would be much more difficult, the Republicans have the best possible matchup they could have dreamed of. Just let this play out.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPBecause his internal polling shows they are winning pretty easily. Again, no one here will see the obvious. Why waste money before their convention?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Poll this niggas.
I wish grocery prices were only up 25%…no clue how that was calculated but it’s way low.
Nice trolling, You used “centrist” and “moderate” to describe Harris…dead giveawayQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineto me shes not a blank page but simply the promise of a centerist, no-nonsense administration thats not going to 'put it all in christs hands' and let the chips fall where they may.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
aka bidenism.
i do think that shes going to go after the homeless drug addict plague and urban retail crime plague and i think shes going to do it quietly and without a public debate and tbh i think thats exactly how it needs to be handled. id be sad if i was wrong. but i think in 2028 thats going to be the cornerstone of her campaign and in 2032, tim's going to inherit a compassionate law and order position with numbers to back it up.
but again i dont need a lot of performative spectacle from her because to your point, she _is_ kind of a hawkish moderate who isnt going to remold democracy as a christian theocracy and that really does have appeal well beyond partisan boundaries, despite what splitthis and vaughn keep saying.
Kamala will rake those percentage points when the missiles start flying in the Middle East cause_what_american_doesn’t_love a good scrape overseas
Things look like they stabilized for Trump. If I am Trump, I simply take the month of August off. Nobody really is paying attention anyway this early. You want Harris to peak early, she is an awful candidate and there is plenty of time for her to implode. What you want to see is Kamala joining the rally stage in mid October, dancing with Hollywood celebrities, then you know Trump will win.
I truly believe the Democratic Convention will backfire. Everyone is pointing to this as the coming out party for Harris. That usually means the complete opposite will happen. I remember vividly when Hillary was on DNC stage with Bill in 2016 and the balloon drop and she has the fake smile with Katy Perry music in the background. I was thinking yeah she is going to lose.
Monday, August 12
General Election: Trump vs. Harris
Morning Consult
Harris 47, Trump 44
Harris
+3
...Quote:
Originally Posted by garrettPaging (Sloppy Joe)Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
:lol2
tgull gonna bet 50k so he says....
A better way to put it, I will bet what your parents flat out ripped off from you.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett...Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
tgull gonna bet 50k so he says....
Here is the latest from Florida today. My guess come election time this will be about an 8 to 10 point spread for Trump. I mean this is not much of a swing state.
Florida: Trump vs. Harris
USA Today/Suffolk
Trump 47, Harris 42
Trump
+5
We live in a perpetual present. Obviously you nap it outQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
This is modern life 2020’s. 1 month ago Trump came within an inch of a red mist yet it is completely forgotten.
Animals in the forest behave this way too. No memory
Just had a thought.
America is like an Alzheimer’s patient who can’t recognize their children. Show America Kamala Harris and it’s like seeing someone for the first time. No memory.
We live in a perpetual present.
JD Vance talking about whether Walz kissed or shook his wife’s hand. Trump just finished the Stormy Daniel’s trial. He had a mistress while Baron’s mom was pregnant. Like wtf dude. Vance has no memory but the public forgot too… so it plays kind of.
Morning Consult might honestly be the worst overall polling group. They were way off in 2022 and even more ridiculous in 2020. In 2020 state polling they averaged being off by about 7 or 8 points Dem typically, in general election polling they were off 4 or 5 points - anyone reading this is free to go pull the data themselves for exact numbers. Again, with her supposedly being up 3 in their incredibly biased polling, this should tell you something.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I went back and looked out of curiosity. Here is how bad their final polling was:
Pennsylvania - Biden + 9
Wisconsin - Biden + 13
Michigan - Biden + 7
Actual results for Biden:
Pennsylvania - +1.17
Wisconsin - +0.63
Michigan - +2.78
They cannot be taken seriously. They had him polling at + 9 or better all of October. Polls tend to tighten up their purposefully biased methodologies at the end, yet they still had Biden +8 in November.
This is the sense I get. Trumpism more than Trump. It’s very strange because it’s so sudden. I mean you aren’t touching his 37%. Nothing he could do would touch that 37%.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
But I’m hearing total Trump homers on radio admonish callers for being typical MAGA.
Caller one starts talking stolen elections and he tells them to shut up. What’s hard to understand that they mailed a ballot to everyone and we have won popular vote once since 1988.
Caller 2 starts down the Kamala is a whore route and he calls them creepy and tells them they are part of the problem.
Satan this and that. People just want them to shut the fuck up. Your guy is lifelong scum also. There is no high road here.
Like even this total homer feels the shift.
It’s no doubt most people are ready to break it off with Trump. He’s the old fat guy who has lost his fastball. But then they look over and Kamala is standing there and they start thinking maybe he isn’t so bad after all.
She can’t pick her spots to speak forever. She’s going to have to sound smart and inspire confidence at some point, and she didn’t do all that well at that in the past. She needs to make the majority of that 20% in the middle file the paperwork and ditch him.
Her biggest asset is people just want MAGA tards to shut up so badly that they are ignoring her.
It’s his followers more than Trump himself. He’s a head case that you hear soundbites of. He’s nuts, but a known quantity and things went fairly well in his presidency until Covid. A bit luck, but he didn’t get us into anything. He has a weird charisma. His followers have none.
Familiarity breeds contempt, and at this point, everyone has a conspiratard friend, neighbor, or relative that you just want to shut up and be a normal human again and get deprogrammed. The worst part is they all have been the dumbest fuckers forever and now think they understand complex shit when they couldn’t do 8th grade math to save their life. It’s exhausting.
That’s what she’s running against. A vote against his morons or a vote for more of it. She’s almost irrelevant. He feels like the incumbent. With inflation like it is, it’s insane how personal this all feels. Give him normal supporters and he wins in a walk. I now understand ethnic cleansing, except in this case, people are going to kill each other over social media driven arguments.
She can win the whole thing with 2 really good hours. I’m not sure she has it in her. I’ve never seen a good 10 minutes out of her yet.
And I can’t shake Hillary was 10x more qualified than her. She couldn’t do it. Why is Kamala going to? She can’t. He can only blow it.
This is 100% the truth. Momentum is fleeting. Trump surged at the end against Hillary. Obama did the same thing against Romney. 2020 was an outlier, due to Covid, so you can toss that one. I am telling everyone who will listen, Kamala is simply peaking too early. Come October her glitter will turn to rust. I was against Vance, I was but this other guy, Tampon Tim is worse. If I were advising Trump keep a low profile for a month. Have Vance be the pit bull. Try to become the underdog, America loves underdogs.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR