*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Yes bitch

Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.

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so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there

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I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there

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I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.

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ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit

PLOP help a brotha out here...

this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...



EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...

Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.

If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.

CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3

CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).

No other state gets that pull

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Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

PLOP help a brotha out here...

this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...



EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...

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Markets are capped at 5,000 traders. So in order to trade that market you need to have traded at least 1 share at some point to be a participant. But yeah, it's free money. It's not a stale price, it's just people being silly.

Biden is trading at 10% to drop out before November 1st. Just go take the free 10 cents and then when it expires on November 1st move the money into another election market.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ore-November-1

There's a lot of "free money" markets out there if you don't have the stomach to gamble on swing states.

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Originally Posted by Daly

Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.

If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.

CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3

CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).

No other state gets that pull

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I mean if you give Michigan to Trump, his odds go up to 85%. If you give PA to Trump he goes to 72%. Give him WI and it goes to 73%. It's because PA/WI/MI are pretty heavily correlated. The model thinks of those 3, MI is the most difficult. So it assumes that if he wins MI he's heavily favored to win WI and PA. It also means you're likely winning FL, AZ and thus the election.

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

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Originally Posted by PLOL

I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.

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ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit

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Booked.

For the record:
I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push

I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.

We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.

Good luck

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Originally Posted by PLOL

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit

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Booked.

For the record:
I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push

I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.

We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.

Good luck

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no excuses not to pay, all scams have to be accepted as a paid result or ban

Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.

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Originally Posted by OSA

Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.

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and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

Sanlmar, there's a new SSG podcast out. It's a worthwhile listen. You can find it here:
https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...mart-hysteria/

Edit: Lol, I just listened and I got a shout-out towards the end at 46:25

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

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Originally Posted by OSA

Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.

Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.

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and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

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Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol

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Originally Posted by OSA

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger

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Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol

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quit being a perv moron. i was about to call him the new hongthonger anyways, figured i could use ur post too

found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s


Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400


Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115


Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s


Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400


Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115


Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235

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I like it. This is really dumb on your book's part. You should take advantage

LOL what book is that? Can you parlay states? I can't believe they would let you do that for correlated props

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listen, dish, your instinct is going to be to try to fondle balls when youre sucking your mandatory tranny dicks.

be warned; there probably arent any balls.

Thread delivers

So many people have already voted.

There are so few undecided in a very polarized race, as well.

I didn’t watch debate because my vote is non refundable.

Thus, I will be intrigued to follow how Plop trades this. Will there really be any volatility?

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Originally Posted by badguy23

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Well if my options are +101 Greenfield, -114 Ernst. Then I'm going with Greenfield but I don't love it.

If we're talking general election, I'm comparatively bullish on Trump in Iowa relative to states like Georgia, Ohio, and possibly even Texas. Texas and Georgia are very urban (and urbanizing more rapidly), while Iowa is overwhelmingly rural and not all that dynamic. But it depends on the price you can get. I bet Trump in Iowa at -150 on Bovada last week but I believe the line has moved up. I would not pay -200 for it.

Iowa is a state I generally advise laying off of.

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You heard it here first!!!

Greenfield is the pick in Iowa

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzT1kO_-xbQ

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Who the fuck wears a suit while riding a tractor and pitching straw lol

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by Daly

An electoral college tie would be the end of the country.

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Average Democrat citizen night of the election:

Oh a tie - so it goes to the house. Seems fair.

House has a big majority of Democrats - Biden would win. Seems fair given the scenario.

Oh not all electoral college voters are legally bound to vote the way the stare did so trump could still win. I hope everybody does the right thing.

OK good everyone pledged to uphold the state vote - so it does go to the house, Biden Wins.

What do you mean each state in the house gets one vote? Majority within the state gets the one vote?

What do you mean The GOP has the by State Majority????????

Fucking Trump wins??? WHAT THE FUCK.

At least we get VP Biden again.

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Once again, we are helplessly hoping that our absolutely retarded system does not come back to fuck us.