I left my comments in the other thread RE: William Hill. Not a good look.
That said anyone who takes $500 of prop action from any random person off the street is OK with me. I had zero idea they were offering draft props.
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I left my comments in the other thread RE: William Hill. Not a good look.
That said anyone who takes $500 of prop action from any random person off the street is OK with me. I had zero idea they were offering draft props.
I know it's early for NFL talk - anyone want to make the case for a 10 win Dallas Cowboy team?
So far Anderson has been good (kinda expected this, oddly enough) and Paxton has been even better.
0-0 entering bottom 3.
Public piled on the over money, so you know which way the books want this to go.
Well, it's only 2-0 Seattle, but I don't see Oakland winning this. Paxton is just locked in. 9 K in 4 innings, pitching 1 hit ball so far.
Might actually just root for the game to stay like this and basically break even on it, rather than hope Oakland scores 3, holds the lead, and the under holds.
2-2 tie going to the 9th.
Here we goooooooooooo
Will I get a lucky double win, an unlucky double loss, or (most likely) a split?
Edit: POW, A's HR in the 9th, 3-2. Now if they can avoid shitting the bed...
:baddecision:Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I think the Giants bounce back again, eagles good obv, boys n skins fighting for cellar. They have no WR who would be better than #3 on any other team. Zeke gonna be seeing those 8 man boxes all the time. Defense below average.
This is kind of where I'm at. They are lined at 9 wins at the moment but juiced to the over. I'm sitting tight for now but if it hits 9.5 I'm jumping on under.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut:baddecision:Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I think the Giants bounce back again, eagles good obv, boys n skins fighting for cellar. They have no WR who would be better than #3 on any other team. Zeke gonna be seeing those 8 man boxes all the time. Defense below average.
I was surprised they didn't go with ridley in the first round...that dude was a beast at bama with middling QB play...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis is kind of where I'm at. They are lined at 9 wins at the moment but juiced to the over. I'm sitting tight for now but if it hits 9.5 I'm jumping on under.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
3-2 Oakland...
With 2 out in the 9th and men on 1st and 2nd, Dee Gordon hit a grounder and the play at 1st was super close. He was called out to end the game....
...but...
Upon review, it was overturned (mistake, imo), and the game was back alive, with bases loaded.
Thankfully Segura grounded out to end it, and that was that.
Won both picks, to cap off my second consecutive strong day.
Today:
Colorado (T. Anderson) +199 at Cubs (Darvish) - WON +1.99
Colorado/Cubs - Under 10.5 -115 - LOST -1
Pittsburgh (Nova) at Washington (Strasburg) - Over 8 +102 - WON +1.020
Oakland (Brett Anderson) +159 at Seattle (Paxton) - WON +1.590
Oakland/Seattle under 8 -110 - WON +0.909
TOTAL TODAY: 4-1, +4.509
GRAND TOTAL: 34-29-2, +7.188 units
Overs: 1-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-0
Unders: 20-14-2
Sides: 11-12
I'm actually up in 3 of the 4 categories (all but overs) because I had a number of underdogs with the sides, so my 11-12 record is actually a winner.
The last two days have been great, going 8-2 and +7.958. They have almost completely erased the funk I've been in for the past 10 days or so.
Not much I like today.
Still considering later games.
One game I do like may not happen, or may not happen with the pitchers I want.
*** GAME 2 ***
** MAKE SURE THESE TWO PITCHERS ARE GOING -- BET "LISTED", NOT ACTION **
Toronto (Biagini) at Cleveland (Plutko) - Under 10 -105
Plutko is yet another "rookie pitcher who is hot in the minors right now" story. Ignore his only 2 Major League starts (back in 2016) where he pitched poorly.
There is a chance this game won't happen, or that they will end up swapping pitchers around.
Currently on rain delay for game 1.
You can’t play this but I post it as a bit of a brag.
The public seems to be tiring of the overpriced lonch that were the Dodgers. It was a great run. I may have caught the last wave at midnight.
I always thought this was a great line:
“It was a great party until somebody brought a hammer”
DBacks moved from +100 —-> -137
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -119 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +180 for Game
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 956 Los Angeles Dodgers/Arizona Diamondbacks over 7 -115 for Game
2 terrible offenses
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 964 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox under 9 -115 for Game
Wish I did Atlanta today. Albies & Acuna. They are so far ahead of schedule as the Yankees were last year.
Fucking Dodgers. My contempt for this fail org reaches another level.
Can’t watch them in home market. You can’t watch them on MLB package. Fucking Facebook Watch?
DIAG. Nobody will be watching at all. No reason to.
Just like another bet of mine on Game 2 of a double header (Pit/Det if I remember correctly), I have the under after a huge slugfest in Game 1, which is going to extra innings.
Hopefully it won't be the same result (a loss which was clear fairly early on).
Well I have run out of ways to lose money today.
MOBILE - BASKETBALL - NBA - 509 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -4 -110 FOR GAME
Just take it and end the suffering
Ugh
Toronto bullpen so bad and they don't hook the reliever who can't throw a strike.
8-2 now. Can I hope for a tie? Doubt it.
Edit: Nope. Under dead in the 5th
:gay
Druff I would auto bet over if Biagini is starting. No idea why he isn't back in the pen.
The under wasn't really on Biagini. It was more on the rookie Cleveland starter who had been hot in the minors, and the fact that the total was 10. Plus a few other factors I won't bother getting into.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I just didn't expect Cleveland to hang a 7 on them in the 5th inning. Never understood why managers leave relievers out there to totally flail when it's 100% clear they don't have it. This game wasn't even out of reach while this was happening (4-2 at the time).
But yeah, I'm not going under with Biagini if the total is something like 8, that's for sure.
Hmm I wonder why?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThe under wasn't really on Biagini. It was more on the rookie Cleveland starter who had been hot in the minors, and the fact that the total was 10. Plus a few other factors I won't bother getting into.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I just didn't expect Cleveland to hang a 7 on them in the 5th inning. Never understood why managers leave relievers out there to totally flail when it's 100% clear they don't have it. This game wasn't even out of reach while this was happening (4-2 at the time).
But yeah, I'm not going under with Biagini if the total is something like 8, that's for sure.
Surely it wouldn't have anything to do with the fact it was their second game of the day and the first one happened to be an 11 inning slugfest where they used 8 pitchers would it? Nah couldn't be that.
Toronto ML
Utah ML
When I bet it, the first game hadn't started yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by SheesfacedHmm I wonder why?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Surely it wouldn't have anything to do with the fact it was their second game of the day and the first one happened to be an 11 inning slugfest where they used 8 pitchers would it? Nah couldn't be that.
Here's what I got so far on the afternoon games:
Miami (W. Chen) at Cincinnati (Romano) - Under 9 -115
San Francisco (Stratton) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 9 -105
Notes:
Miami pick is very anti-public
SF pick is semi-public (that is, public moderately favors my pick)
Atlanta has mashed the ball lately. Acuna, Albies, Markakis, Freeman have been super hot. And Stratton got bombed last time out. So keep all that in mind before tailing me on that one.
I know it might be hard to bring yourself to bet an under on two offensive juggernauts like the Reds and Marlins, but try to force yourself.
I really wanted to bet the Indians o 10.5, but not going to lay -130 on a total
Every fifth start Tomlin looks like prime Jamie Moyer early in the season. The other four he’s like me throwing BP. Against the Yankees, that could get real ugly.
Considered the under on the Chicago/St. Louis game but decided I'll pass.
I'm looking at one more: Under on the Angels. That one starts after 7pm PDT, so I'll post it closer to game time if I like it.
Interesting one in Arizona -- you can get like +180 right now on the Dbacks AT HOME!
That's very tempting, even though they're up against Houston and Gerrit Cole, and even though they're sending out washed up Kris Medlen, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2016, was horrible that year, and didn't look too good in the minors this year. Very tough decision on that one. Can you really pass on a +180 on a 21-11 team at home, just because their starting pitcher is awful?
I'm considering that too.
That's irrelevant to my post. You were questioning why a manager would leave in a reliever who didn't "have it." I was merely commenting as to why in the very game you were referring too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWhen I bet it, the first game hadn't started yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
Someone noose me for betting with the public.
Anyway...
at Arizona (Medlen) +178 vs Houston (g. Cole)
Starts 6:40 PT
Looks like I shoulda passed with the public Braves under and gone with the non-public Cubs under.
Oh well.
Hopefully Reds under holds.
Decided to skip the Angels game. Done for the night.
1-1 on the totals
Shoulda listened to my own advice about Medlen with the Dbacks.
4-0 Hou
Ugh
Ha, both unders I considered but didn't take are doing well (Angels & Cubs).
Shoulda done those and skipped the two losers I posted where I openly expressed concern while posting them.
Annoying when I clearly see which games to choose and then make 4/5 wrong decisions.
Only good decision of the day was the Reds under.
Sometimes I lose games but am still confident in the pick. Today wasn't one of those days.
I deserved to lose today.
Horse betting article, early US computer nerds build algorithm and make hundreds of millions. What a life, wehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
TEAM WINS
Arizona Cardinals 5 ½ (-130 over)
Atlanta Falcons 9
Baltimore Ravens 8 (-120 over)
Buffalo Bills 6.5 (-130 over)
Carolina Panthers 9 (-120 under)
Chicago Bears 6.5 (-140 over)
Cincinnati Bengals 7 (-120 under)
Cleveland Browns 5.5 (-130 over)
Dallas Cowboys 8.5 (-120 over)
Denver Broncos 7 (-120 under)
Detroit Lions 8 (-120 under)
Green Bay Packers 10 (-140 under)
Houston Texans 8.5 (-120 over)
Indianapolis Colts 6.5 (-130 under)
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 (-130 over)
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5 (-120 under)
Los Angeles Chargers 9 (-140 over)
Los Angeles Rams 9.5 (-150 over)
Miami Dolphins 6
Minnesota Vikings 10
New England Patriots 11 (-130 over)
New Orleans Saints 9.5
New York Giants 6.5 (-130 over)
New York Jets 6 (-130 under)
Oakland Raiders 8 (-120 over)
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 (-140 under)
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5
San Francisco 49ers 9 (-120 under)
Seattle Seahawks 8 (-120 under)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 (-120 over)
Tennessee Titans 8
Washington Redskins 7 (-130 under)
Per the Westgate SuperBook, as of April 29
-Anyone love any of these? Bengals U7 struck me, but I haven't really looked at their schedule.
The two that struck me were Dolphins under 6 and cowboys under 9 (at my book)
76ers -9 seems pretty absurd when they just got beat by the Celtics twice. They could/should win at home but is anyone paying 9 points? Gotta win by 10+ to win your bet? No thanks. I’m splashing Celtics and ML +350
Ha, considered the Cubs, but that pick was "public as fuck" as badguy said, so I stayed away. Up 4-0 right now.
So here's two other picks, starting at 1:15pm PDT:
Detroit (J. Zimmerman) +140 at Kansas City (Hammel)
Detroit/KC - Under 9.5 -120
I hesitated hitting "bet" on the under when it was -115 and it moved to -120 seconds later. So annoying.
Maybe more picks later
Okay guess it's good I didn't fire Cubs. 4-4 now.
Wow
Next games up:
at White Sox (H. Santiago) -1.5 +215 vs. Minnesota (Lynn)
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 8.5 -105
Starting 4:10pm PDT
One more:
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Texas (Hamels) - Under 9 +101
Starts 5:05 PT
Unbelievable.
3-1 Det in bottom 9, 1 out, man on 2nd.
Routine fly ball, should be 2 out.
Leonys Martin -- a good CF -- dropped it. No reason. Just mangled the play. 3-2 man on 2nd, 1 out now.
Keep in mind there was already a near-disasterous error in the 7th where 1B Hicks dropped the ball and loaded the bases instead of ending the inning, but thankfully no runs scored.
If I lose this +140 based upon this, I'll be furious.
Another bad play to make runners at 1st and 3rd.
Never easy.
John Jay whiffed to end the game.
Double win on that game, taking both the +140 side and the under.
On the negative side, Minnesota is already beating down the White Sox. 2-0 with just 1 out in the 1st, and I need to win the game by 2. But Lance Lynn sucks so you never know what will happen.
+350 doesn’t come easy. Couldn’t fade the 1.7 second shot to tieQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Let’s get it in OT!
Unreal.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22+350 doesn’t come easy. Couldn’t fade the 1.7 second shot to tieQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Let’s get it in OT!
Hope we don’t get Druff’ed in OT