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Sorry guys! I'll try and publish some stuff for tonight. I needed to travel back to my hometown of Boston for work and the better half "let" me fly up early so I could hit the CT casinos.Quote:
Originally Posted by pagelpoker
Been refreshing all morning waiting on daly lolQuote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
I'm on twitter.... but it's my "real life" identity. I'm not an executive but I'm in a professional field that would appreciate me being a sports better and other degenerate.Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
I do have a text thread I share picks with but it's generally for people i share action with.
Really sharp bet here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Smith over 236.5
Ware under 62.5
Ware over 2.5
Maclin over 5
Je James under 3.5
Je. James under 30.5
Brown over 8
Brown over 106.5
Coates over 42.5
BAHAHAHAHAH, FIRST PLAY OF THE GAME!Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
:to
THAT TOOK LONG!Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
ok so far 2 for 2 here, one more tomorrow night. the KC got close, but the line kept moving against me so glad I passed. I ran some more numbers on the model, its basically plus 6 units for the season. Taking the value plays on top of the model has improved the performance significantly, so I am going to run it for a while and see. the Minn line is down to -4.5 so value getting better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
If Tomlin ever says Redemption Sunday/Thursday/Monday again, I'm betting my house on it.
ok 3 for 3, woo hoo and 2 for 2 the week before on this model, so off to a good start. unfortunatly based on early lines no picks for this week yet. ill post if any of the lines move enough to look like extra value against the model. philly and miami may qualify, line still needs to move, though I am going to have a hard time value betting miami eva.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charhamok so far 2 for 2 here, one more tomorrow night. the KC got close, but the line kept moving against me so glad I passed. I ran some more numbers on the model, its basically plus 6 units for the season. Taking the value plays on top of the model has improved the performance significantly, so I am going to run it for a while and see. the Minn line is down to -4.5 so value getting better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
man Xavier rhoades is no fucking joke...shuts out the biggest physical freak WR in Benjamin last week and shuts down a totally different type of WR in beckham this week...that Bradford trade is starting to look better and better with a D like this that can take them very far into January...
If the Vikings are are 69% ATS sense 2013 can anyone give me a reason not to bet them every week?
already got down some action for them next weekQuote:
Originally Posted by justweeee
Few thoughts on O's Toronto game tonight-
Orioles can't hit LHP (only Machado can basically), crush RHP (83 vs 107 wRC+), so thank you John Gibbons for putting a RHP on the mound. THANK YOU. Everyone was in total fear he would go with Liriano instead and force our terrible LHP lineup out there.
One of the reasons Orioles hit RHP so much better, is because it allows Kim in lineup, who is just a hitting machine. (They score 1.75 runs more a game with him starting). Side note: Showalter hates him for some reason, and will use every excuse in book not to play him. "LHP" is the main one.
Tillman is the best the O's have to offer on the mound, he has been pretty solid of late, with the only 2 bad starts against an insane Boston team right in the middle of their hot streak, and the game right before he went on the DL near the end of August (trying to pitch through injury).
Also O's bullpen is healthiest it has been all year. O'Day been out basically since June and now he is back. Key piece.
Orioles opened at +138 now down to +128.
Good summary NBH
Was listening to 105.7 Baltimore sports talk for some insight. No energy. Almost fatalistic fans. Don't get it as Baltimore isnt exactly the city of champions lately.
Toronto home field is insane. Like Seahawks fans a year or two ago. This concerns me a bit.
I bet the O's yesterday @ +137. I see the game as a flip and I'll take the value.
I posted some bets yesterday in the World Series thread and reviewing them I nailed every one on price. I am proudest of Giants +106.
Baltimore is hands down the worst sports media market on the east coast. It is unbearable, and a 2nd class operation pretty much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I have actually started listening to other east coast markets, and finally realized just how bad it was.
They just moved them up to +154 at betonline, was at a low of +128 few hours ago. I have them at +138
Wow. Thx NBH
+154 was BetOnline and I took another unit. Look, it ain't a lock but WTF that Moneyline.
Rabid Toronto fans, no doubt. Those guys sure were traveling from game to game on the road. Good for them.
The starters ain't committed to 6 or 7 innings. O's are deeper IMO. Anything can happen. I gotta restrain myself in game.
I'm on board with you guys O's +154
Also took Stroman Under 4.5 (+120) bvda
This guy breaks down the stats for this game:
Jay's fired up.
Stroman feeds off it.
Tillman sucks in Toronto. The Os made the worst pitching choice.
Sorry boys.
Who wanted a 3 game wild card? Please