Bitcoins are officially donkdown

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I have a very pressing schedule, Pooh. Nevertheless, I am going to try to devote some energy toward getting you enrolled in my re-education camp under a full scholarship. We look out for our soon to be needy students.

All the Fed want to do is tame inflation. Which is to say, they want to fight the natural order of market cycles. (You don’t have to concern yourself with that.)

Inflation is all you need to retain.

Inflation isn’t Biden. It isn’t mumbles on disability and not driving his truck (supply chain). It’s simply too much money (monetary expansion)

Let’s give you something fun that won’t require any effort.

This Twitter account belongs to:
Nina Strohminger
Professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics at Wharton

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do you consider inflation to be a greater or lesser concern to the fed than the risk of having our debt downgraded?

personally im leaning towards lesser because you can have #1 without #2 but once you get #2, #1 is pretty much a mortal lock along with a bunch of other dramas.

its surprising to me that they didnt slip their hand up standard & poor's ass and turn them into a sock puppet after 2008 but apparently, according to their own minutes, they did not.

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Good points. Inflation is the number 1 boogeyman out there at the moment. The sad thing is even rising interest rates won't make a damn bit of difference. The only way out of this disaster in the making is a) ending all vaxx mandates/lockdowns everywhere in the world immediately. Omicron is to the point where it's a bad cold mild flu. It's time to open back up. This will solve the supply chain disruptions but it would take time to unwind. Just the amount of ships off California is enough to make you say seriously what the fuck to the people in charge. The other thing that needs to happen is the looney tunes far left has to drop this ridiculous climate change agenda. I'm all for the elimination of oil and gas if that's what the powers that be want, but they need to do it SLOWLY. The world uses damn near 100 million barrels a day. That's 4.2 BILLION gallons of oil every day of the year and it's increasing for the next five years at an absolute minimum. These are facts and they can't be argued. So they need to be friendlier to the fossil fuel industry. Encourage them to pump what they need to pump and allow them to build the necessary infrastructure in order to achieve oil prices in the $50-60 dollar range. The first one may happen this year. The second one has zero chance. The left will die on that hill. Oil prices are so high right now because all inventories are at critical levels, even jet fuel inventories are low. Just think how that looks once people start flying again. Refiners are currently seeing highest margins in the past ten years and half the world is still essentially banned from international travel. Think about that. The pent up demand is nothing like you'll ever see again in your life. Add in the fact that OPEC+ has almost no spare capacity left, which is why they can't even increase the 400k a month they agreed to. US oil is terrified of the President so they are going to bother spending money to drill more until oil is either much much higher or Biden relaxes. Oh check out the drilled but incompleted wells (DUCs). They have plummeted to 2017 levels and falling fast. Oil has a real possibility of getting out of control this year. Biden's answer was to release the emergency reserves lol. Can't make this shit up. Oh well. Inflation is here to stay.

at least none of us forgot to set aside money to pay for our 2021 cap gains tax tho right?












right?

























https://sm.ign.com/t/ign_in/review/t..._25tc.1200.jpg

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Originally Posted by Pooh

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Originally Posted by sonatine

do you consider inflation to be a greater or lesser concern to the fed than the risk of having our debt downgraded?

personally im leaning towards lesser because you can have #1 without #2 but once you get #2, #1 is pretty much a mortal lock along with a bunch of other dramas.

its surprising to me that they didnt slip their hand up standard & poor's ass and turn them into a sock puppet after 2008 but apparently, according to their own minutes, they did not.

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Good points. Inflation is the number 1 boogeyman out there at the moment. The sad thing is even rising interest rates won't make a damn bit of difference. The only way out of this disaster in the making is a) ending all vaxx mandates/lockdowns everywhere in the world immediately. Omicron is to the point where it's a bad cold mild flu. It's time to open back up. This will solve the supply chain disruptions but it would take time to unwind. Just the amount of ships off California is enough to make you say seriously what the fuck to the people in charge. The other thing that needs to happen is the looney tunes far left has to drop this ridiculous climate change agenda. I'm all for the elimination of oil and gas if that's what the powers that be want, but they need to do it SLOWLY. The world uses damn near 100 million barrels a day. That's 4.2 BILLION gallons of oil every day of the year and it's increasing for the next five years at an absolute minimum. These are facts and they can't be argued. So they need to be friendlier to the fossil fuel industry. Encourage them to pump what they need to pump and allow them to build the necessary infrastructure in order to achieve oil prices in the $50-60 dollar range. The first one may happen this year. The second one has zero chance. The left will die on that hill. Oil prices are so high right now because all inventories are at critical levels, even jet fuel inventories are low. Just think how that looks once people start flying again. Refiners are currently seeing highest margins in the past ten years and half the world is still essentially banned from international travel. Think about that. The pent up demand is nothing like you'll ever see again in your life. Add in the fact that OPEC+ has almost no spare capacity left, which is why they can't even increase the 400k a month they agreed to. US oil is terrified of the President so they are going to bother spending money to drill more until oil is either much much higher or Biden relaxes. Oh check out the drilled but incompleted wells (DUCs). They have plummeted to 2017 levels and falling fast. Oil has a real possibility of getting out of control this year. Biden's answer was to release the emergency reserves lol. Can't make this shit up. Oh well. Inflation is here to stay.

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See? You are back to the supply chain. It’s too late for that. Don’t just read the following - mouth the words. MONETARY EXPANSION. Too much money chasing too few…. well, everything.

I don’t care anything about this really but Druff’s disaster port in LA can’t handle all the crummy shit we ordered online from China with all our newfound cash. Don’t believe me? The Yuan (China) just closed yesterday at the highest trade to the dollar since 2018. Rockin’ in Wuhan. We are way past this issue. Move on.

Oil wants $100 doesn’t it?

What is important is the Fed is running out of tricks. The market retreats (tanks) and the Fed will do something dumb. I am locked in on whether they will break their taper promise. That’s the least of my worries. Nobody is willing to accept pain any more. They shoulda stopped meddling decades ago.

If you hear any conversation about the ECB (European Central Bank) take a listen. Very precarious. We will get involved. We always get involved.

Fed bought bonds the past two years. Cool new dance move. They will buy stocks during our next crisis. I’m pretty sure that’s the next tool.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Pooh

Good points. Inflation is the number 1 boogeyman out there at the moment. The sad thing is even rising interest rates won't make a damn bit of difference. The only way out of this disaster in the making is a) ending all vaxx mandates/lockdowns everywhere in the world immediately. Omicron is to the point where it's a bad cold mild flu. It's time to open back up. This will solve the supply chain disruptions but it would take time to unwind. Just the amount of ships off California is enough to make you say seriously what the fuck to the people in charge. The other thing that needs to happen is the looney tunes far left has to drop this ridiculous climate change agenda. I'm all for the elimination of oil and gas if that's what the powers that be want, but they need to do it SLOWLY. The world uses damn near 100 million barrels a day. That's 4.2 BILLION gallons of oil every day of the year and it's increasing for the next five years at an absolute minimum. These are facts and they can't be argued. So they need to be friendlier to the fossil fuel industry. Encourage them to pump what they need to pump and allow them to build the necessary infrastructure in order to achieve oil prices in the $50-60 dollar range. The first one may happen this year. The second one has zero chance. The left will die on that hill. Oil prices are so high right now because all inventories are at critical levels, even jet fuel inventories are low. Just think how that looks once people start flying again. Refiners are currently seeing highest margins in the past ten years and half the world is still essentially banned from international travel. Think about that. The pent up demand is nothing like you'll ever see again in your life. Add in the fact that OPEC+ has almost no spare capacity left, which is why they can't even increase the 400k a month they agreed to. US oil is terrified of the President so they are going to bother spending money to drill more until oil is either much much higher or Biden relaxes. Oh check out the drilled but incompleted wells (DUCs). They have plummeted to 2017 levels and falling fast. Oil has a real possibility of getting out of control this year. Biden's answer was to release the emergency reserves lol. Can't make this shit up. Oh well. Inflation is here to stay.

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See? You are back to the supply chain. It’s too late for that. Don’t just read the following - mouth the words. MONETARY EXPANSION. Too much money chasing too few…. well, everything.

I don’t care anything about this really but Druff’s disaster port in LA can’t handle all the crummy shit we ordered online from China with all our newfound cash. Don’t believe me? The Yuan (China) just closed yesterday at the highest trade to the dollar since 2018. Rockin’ in Wuhan. We are way past this issue. Move on.

Oil wants $100 doesn’t it?

What is important is the Fed is running out of tricks. The market retreats (tanks) and the Fed will do something dumb. I am locked in on whether they will break their taper promise. That’s the least of my worries. Nobody is willing to accept pain any more. They shoulda stopped meddling decades ago.

If you hear any conversation about the ECB (European Central Bank) take a listen. Very precarious. We will get involved. We always get involved.

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i was half asleep when i made this post previously and it was probably on the other forum anyway but... to your point.......


2018: economy is shitty, market breaks through support, Fed saves market, market recovers
2020: economy is shitty, market breaks through support, Fed saves market, market recovers

2022: economy is beast mode / ATH job openings / real estate market absolutely booming, market breaks through support, Fed has no more dry powder, market.....?


answer: spx sheds 1000 points like ridley scott's alien after a good meal and anyone who doesnt go to cash or make money on the way down better learn to code.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Pooh

Good points. Inflation is the number 1 boogeyman out there at the moment. The sad thing is even rising interest rates won't make a damn bit of difference. The only way out of this disaster in the making is a) ending all vaxx mandates/lockdowns everywhere in the world immediately. Omicron is to the point where it's a bad cold mild flu. It's time to open back up. This will solve the supply chain disruptions but it would take time to unwind. Just the amount of ships off California is enough to make you say seriously what the fuck to the people in charge. The other thing that needs to happen is the looney tunes far left has to drop this ridiculous climate change agenda. I'm all for the elimination of oil and gas if that's what the powers that be want, but they need to do it SLOWLY. The world uses damn near 100 million barrels a day. That's 4.2 BILLION gallons of oil every day of the year and it's increasing for the next five years at an absolute minimum. These are facts and they can't be argued. So they need to be friendlier to the fossil fuel industry. Encourage them to pump what they need to pump and allow them to build the necessary infrastructure in order to achieve oil prices in the $50-60 dollar range. The first one may happen this year. The second one has zero chance. The left will die on that hill. Oil prices are so high right now because all inventories are at critical levels, even jet fuel inventories are low. Just think how that looks once people start flying again. Refiners are currently seeing highest margins in the past ten years and half the world is still essentially banned from international travel. Think about that. The pent up demand is nothing like you'll ever see again in your life. Add in the fact that OPEC+ has almost no spare capacity left, which is why they can't even increase the 400k a month they agreed to. US oil is terrified of the President so they are going to bother spending money to drill more until oil is either much much higher or Biden relaxes. Oh check out the drilled but incompleted wells (DUCs). They have plummeted to 2017 levels and falling fast. Oil has a real possibility of getting out of control this year. Biden's answer was to release the emergency reserves lol. Can't make this shit up. Oh well. Inflation is here to stay.

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See? You are back to the supply chain. It’s too late for that. Don’t just read the following - mouth the words. MONETARY EXPANSION. Too much money chasing too few…. well, everything.

I don’t care anything about this really but Druff’s disaster port in LA can’t handle all the crummy shit we ordered online from China with all our newfound cash. Don’t believe me? The Yuan (China) just closed yesterday at the highest trade to the dollar since 2018. Rockin’ in Wuhan. We are way past this issue. Move on.

Oil wants $100 doesn’t it?

What is important is the Fed is running out of tricks. The market retreats (tanks) and the Fed will do something dumb. I am locked in on whether they will break their taper promise. That’s the least of my worries. Nobody is willing to accept pain any more. They shoulda stopped meddling decades ago.

If you hear any conversation about the ECB (European Central Bank) take a listen. Very precarious. We will get involved. We always get involved.

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You can say what you want but the problem is supply chain issues. Grocery stores are empty not because there are more people with more money buying it's because they can't get the fucking goods to the shelves whether it's from lack of truck drivers or because China has closed down half their manufacturing or whether it's the thousand ships sitting off the california coast. All of those issues fall under supply chain disruptions caused by the crippling covid mandates. I'm not getting this market tanking panic job. Sure the Nasdaq has tanked and crapto is currently tanking but the S&P is down 7% not even correction territory. In fact we are only back to mid October levels three fucking months ago big fucking woop. Even if this falls to 3800 we're back at March levels. End game is pre covid levels whatever that is. Most high growth no profit companies are there or will be there after their next earnings report. Most value stocks aren't even back to pre covid levels so there are still some decent areas to be in. The high growth names though....could be a long way down.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

See? You are back to the supply chain. It’s too late for that. Don’t just read the following - mouth the words. MONETARY EXPANSION. Too much money chasing too few…. well, everything.

I don’t care anything about this really but Druff’s disaster port in LA can’t handle all the crummy shit we ordered online from China with all our newfound cash. Don’t believe me? The Yuan (China) just closed yesterday at the highest trade to the dollar since 2018. Rockin’ in Wuhan. We are way past this issue. Move on.

Oil wants $100 doesn’t it?

What is important is the Fed is running out of tricks. The market retreats (tanks) and the Fed will do something dumb. I am locked in on whether they will break their taper promise. That’s the least of my worries. Nobody is willing to accept pain any more. They shoulda stopped meddling decades ago.

If you hear any conversation about the ECB (European Central Bank) take a listen. Very precarious. We will get involved. We always get involved.

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i was half asleep when i made this post previously and it was probably on the other forum anyway but... to your point.......


2018: economy is shitty, market breaks through support, Fed saves market, market recovers
2020: economy is shitty, market breaks through support, Fed saves market, market recovers

2022: economy is beast mode / ATH job openings / real estate market absolutely booming, market breaks through support, Fed has no more dry powder, market.....?


answer: spx sheds 1000 points like ridley scott's alien after a good meal and anyone who doesnt go to cash or make money on the way down better learn to code.

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It's funny you say that because fair value is probably another 1000 points down for S&P. AAPL historical multiple is 18 or so and that includes these nosebleed prices and includes the years they had super growth. Multiple is 29 currently on a company growing 5% not 25% a year. Just give that a 20 forget about 18 or less and you're talking about a $115 stock and if the other generals go back near historical multiples you have a 3000 S&P. Which honestly is where it should be. That's how big the bubble has gotten.

if i could afford the overnight margin id just ape into emini shorts with a close order for 3400 and just lock myself out of the account.

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL

Click on MAX chart and tell me we aren't in an insane bubble with a long fucking way back to Earth.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

if i could afford the overnight margin id just ape into emini shorts with a sell order for 3400 and just lock myself out of the account.

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If BTC breaks 30k this week I think we limit down Monday morning due to margin calls everywhere being hit. If BTC stabilizes I think market has a chance to rip next week. Selling has been bigly over done. But that would only be a short term bounce. I fully expect the FED to say they aren't raising rates in March when they meet this week. I never thought they'd raise in March. I figure May, June, Sept and Dec or 3 of those months. Sept and Dec are givens and they either start in May or June. Just my two cents and I very well could be wrong. I do think they are in Dove mode this week though especially since things are getting very unstable marketwise. The most horrific this is the Fear and Greed index is just barely in fear range. You'd think it would be single digits right now.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

if i could afford the overnight margin id just ape into emini shorts with a close order for 3400 and just lock myself out of the account.

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The game is exquisite b/c …..

Bear (pun) in mind that we are still expanding. The taper is just trimming back the purchases. Ain’t that great? Everyone is in a mood cause of the threat of the yield curve and interest rates etc etc.

We’ve been high as fuck for so long this is a shock to the system.

This speaks to Pooh’s point as well. We will shake and bake as we always do. Oversold ….. until we sell again. Even BTC, which is just an expression of all speculation, will retrace

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Originally Posted by Pooh

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL

Click on MAX chart and tell me we aren't in an insane bubble with a long fucking way back to Earth.

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AAPL

AMZN is the wine pairing for AAPL. I’ve fought the power of AMZN. I’m not that smart. We can really go on a tangent but Druff will start new threads and Sonatine will get suspended again. But…….

This blows my mind. I mean holy shit. Amazon Physical store for clothes.

Gonna need more trucks running Chinese crap out of LA

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Originally Posted by Pooh

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Originally Posted by sonatine

if i could afford the overnight margin id just ape into emini shorts with a sell order for 3400 and just lock myself out of the account.

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If BTC breaks 30k this week I think we limit down Monday morning due to margin calls everywhere being hit. If BTC stabilizes I think market has a chance to rip next week. Selling has been bigly over done. But that would only be a short term bounce. I fully expect the FED to say they aren't raising rates in March when they meet this week. I never thought they'd raise in March. I figure May, June, Sept and Dec or 3 of those months. Sept and Dec are givens and they either start in May or June. Just my two cents and I very well could be wrong. I do think they are in Dove mode this week though especially since things are getting very unstable marketwise. The most horrific this is the Fear and Greed index is just barely in fear range. You'd think it would be single digits right now.

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you know whats funny, i was scratching my pairs-trading itch and overlaying bond etfs over spx and theres a real weird disconnect at the moment where certain bond movement is dramatically out of step with spx movement and when i looked backwards for examples of what happens next, usually its spx ripping back up.

but it wasnt exactly consistent and also i spotted this on wed, and thurs/friday were baths of blood so its probably not a signal worth investing in.

still tho, noteworthy. it would not shock me to see a big fucking frog dick of a candle in the next few days.

see also: fed is out of dry powder so..

What happened Friday with the Nasdaq (+2.5% intraday falling to -1% at close) has only happened like 20 times since 1972 with the bulk of them occurring either during the dot.com crash or GFC. I consider this more similar to dot.com crash only instead of internet it's more innovation. GFC was straight up funny money banking crisis. Crypto in my mind has similarities to GFC. Anyone else think what could possibly go wrong when all these buy now pay later companies came out? It's all one huge snowball of shit rolling down mt everest right now.

My brother in law is loaning his crypto out to the digital bank or whatever and being paid 10% interest and the bank is loaning that out to margin probably levered up times 100 so half this money in crypto is borrowed money. To me that's the scary part. If it weren't all on margin things would be totally different but it is so it will.

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Originally Posted by Pooh

My brother in law is loaning his crypto out to the digital bank or whatever and being paid 10% interest and the bank is loaning that out to margin probably levered up times 100 so half this money in crypto is borrowed money. To me that's the scary part. If it weren't all on margin things would be totally different but it is so it will.

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I’ve seen people swear they were 40x. They admitted they were dead.

I know a kid who has never had a job in his life. Brother of a kid who works for us.
He consulted to rich local families on crypto. Somehow it was a living. Be interesting to casually ask about his well being and safety

Good convo guys. Naptime

Napping in the sun on the chaise lounge in the lanai

regarding crypto margin, its a known secret that big fintwit crypto influencers see dramatically less engagement after dips because so much of their audience gets margin called and vanish.

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Originally Posted by Pooh

My brother in law is loaning his crypto out to the digital bank or whatever and being paid 10% interest and the bank is loaning that out to margin probably levered up times 100 so half this money in crypto is borrowed money. To me that's the scary part. If it weren't all on margin things would be totally different but it is so it will.

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You could literally dump almost any amount of money on a variety of exchanges and get .6 to .8 monthly staking % never buying a single thing. Just having it sit there.